Sunday 5 July 2020

Coral - Eclipse Sandown 3.35

Hard to look past the top two in the betting for win purposes.
A place bet on Magic Wand and a small win I think. O'Brien's jockey bookings mean little - surely he has no great expectations tomorrow. A prep run for Japan maybe?

Maybe Japan drifts for the Arc after - probably wants further and softer ground.

piplip87

Jaysus Donnacha just won the Freanch Oaks great race

Randy Archer

Mother of god, big deal for Deep Impact too !!! Aidan had been trying to get those progeny wining for some time, now Donny just comes up .ffs . Great achievement , a classic already. No comment from ITV yet , but they mentioned Gosden winning the French Derby

On a separate note, I see Ger Lyons got a few Moyglare horses. Normally Weld had all of them

Peintre Celebre

Randy Archer wrote: »

Mother of god, big deal for Deep Impact too !!! Aidan had been trying to get those progeny wining for some time, now Donny just comes up .ffs . Great achievement , a classic already. No comment from ITV yet , but they mentioned Gosden winning the French Derby

On a separate note, I see Ger Lyons got a few Moyglare horses. Normally Weld had all of them

?

Off the top of my head September and Japan. Not like Aidan can't get a tune out of them


Edit Japan is a Galileo I mean Saxon warrior

Randy Archer

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

?

Off the top of my head September and Japan. Not like Aidan can't get a tune out of them


Edit Japan is a Galileo I mean Saxon warrior

Saxon only won a guineas and the racing post trophy, hardly dominant compared to what DI progeny did in Japan

September failed to win a Group 1

BoldReason

Randy Archer wrote: »

Saxon only won a guineas and the racing post trophy, hardly dominant compared to what DI progeny did in Japan

September failed to win a Group 1

In fairness to Saxon Warrior that run in the derby soured him a bit. He had a load of pace an out and out miler.

Peintre Celebre

Randy Archer wrote: »

Saxon only won a guineas and the racing post trophy, hardly dominant compared to what DI progeny did in Japan

September failed to win a Group 1

Just a classic winner and a group 2 winner from a handful of runners

Useless

Randy Archer

BoldReason wrote: »

In fairness to Saxon Warrior that run in the derby soured him a bit. He had a load of pace an out and out miler.

Ya yes, he ran well for the rest of the season to be fair . He was in tough company all season, after the Derby but ... it’s all about winning as you know, least in the eyes of Coolmore

Randy Archer

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Just a classic winner and a group 2 winner from a handful of runners

Useless

Who used the word “useless” ? Don’t put words into mouth

He also had more than a “handful” of runners in the past 6 years

Between him and the DI in France (loads of them) they didn’t exactly do that well, In Europe , the odd classic (French Derby ) That’s it

BoldReason

Randy Archer wrote: »

Between him and the DI in France (loads of them) they didn’t exactly do that well, In Europe , the odd classic (French Derby ) That’s it

Study of Man?
Don't think he won another race after that either.

Randy Archer

BoldReason wrote: »

Study of Man?
Don't think he won another race after that either.

Exactly . Classic , great, but a sign of a top class 3 year old is to add a WFA Group 1

Randy Archer

Good run by Enable at a distance that was always a bit short for her. Judge her in the King George

This talk about Coolmore trying the English Triple crown with Love should be dismissed though, besides the Guineas, Derby/Oak and Arc is the true European Triple crown

tryfix

Randy Archer wrote: »

Good run by Enable at a distance that was always a bit short for her. Judge her in the King George

This talk about Coolmore trying the English Triple crown with Love should be dismissed though, besides the Guineas, Derby/Oak and Arc is the true European Triple crown

Last year Enable beat Regal Reality by 2 3/4L in the same race. This year she finished 3L ahead of him and Japan ran 1/2L worse with Regal Reality today than he did in the Juddmonte International. So the form is solid and she's basically at the same stage as she was last year.

Of more worry with Enable is her age and the loss of her air of invincibility.

She won 12 races in a row until her defeat in last year's Arc and now she's been beaten again. It's a long way from here to the finishing line of the Arc.

tryfix

BoldReason wrote: »

Study of Man?
Don't think he won another race after that either.

He also had the 129 rated A Shin Hikari a 10L winner of Prix D'Ispahan.

Beauty Parlour won the French 1,000 Guineas.

BoldReason

What a likeable horse Speak in Colours is. Never shirks a battle. Just below top class but it's not out of the question he could pick up a weak group 1.

pottokblue

PCB the current French hotshot perhaps closely followed by Demuro, the old brigade is Pelsier, Soumi and Max Guyon....
i agree with boldreason about speakincolours and the colour for sunday is Blue

Peintre Celebre

Randy Archer wrote: »

Who used the word “useless” ? Don’t put words into mouth

He also had more than a “handful” of runners in the past 6 years

Between him and the DI in France (loads of them) they didn’t exactly do that well, In Europe , the odd classic (French Derby ) That’s it

You said Aidan has been trying to get them to win. How many do you think he's had over the years?

Just the three french classics and a guineas winner. They haven't done that well in Europe

Morgans

tryfix wrote: »

Last year Enable beat Regal Reality by 2 3/4L in the same race. This year she finished 3L ahead of him and Japan ran 1/2L worse with Regal Reality today than he did in the Juddmonte International. So the form is solid and she's basically at the same stage as she was last year.

Of more worry with Enable is her age and the loss of her air of invincibility.

She won 12 races in a row until her defeat in last year's Arc and now she's been beaten again. It's a long way from here to the finishing line of the Arc.

She doesn't have the form that the media would have you believe.

akelly02

Morgans wrote: »

She doesn't have the form that the media would have you believe.

Sorry that's BS .

The form is there in black and white and is top class whatever angle you come at it from .

Morgans

akelly02 wrote: »

Sorry that's BS .

The form is there in black and white and is top class whatever angle you come at it from .

You'll find that the form of last year's king George means that crystal ocean is a superior animal. On the running in the arc and today - Japan is a better horse.

Call it what you like (top class if you want) that's her form. She got 3lbs today and a beating. She is a great horse - but no better than crystal ocean or Japan.

Randy Archer

tryfix wrote: »

He also had the 129 rated A Shin Hikari a 10L winner of Prix D'Ispahan.

Beauty Parlour won the French 1,000 Guineas.

That was a soft G1 win (not just the ground, which made his win more impressive ) in France for A Shin Hikari , the rest of the field (a pretty good field with New Bay ) were asleep . He laughably was rated the best horse in the world at that time (his Hong Kong run was good precious December though ) He didn’t do himself favours , raring up at the start at Royal Ascot (Prince of Wales ); either way he was never going to be allowed a gap in that race and the field stuck right up his arse all the way

It’s all about the WFA Group 1s and bar Hong Kong, he didn’t run well in WFA races outside Japan . (France was a 4 year plus race )

Beauty Parlour did little after her Guineas win, in fact she was sent to Henry Cecil and later Lady Cecil , nothing happened there

Randy Archer

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

You said Aidan has been trying to get them to win. How many do you think he's had over the years?

Just the three french classics and a guineas winner. They haven't done that well in Europe

I will ask you one more time , who was using the word “useless” .

Aidan O’Brien has had 12 Deep Impacts in the past 6 years and 2 fillies . They are they ones that we know of and raced

With Deep Impct he has had only 1 Group 1 winner (Saxon Warrior), two if you include Donnacha’s Derby winner (Aidan had him at 2 ) and a Group 2 filly who was well tested at 2

The French used the rest

For the kind of money Deep Impact costs for cover , not to mention the logistics of getting the mare covered, not a great return , especially as they don’t tend to win anything after their classic win

Useless ? No but don’t paint him as a great stallion over in Europe . Nice try though. Sad


Classic mean very little without adding WFA group 1s .

11117

Randy Archer wrote: »

I will ask you one more time , who was using the word “useless” .

Aidan O’Brien has had 12 Deep Impacts in the past 6 years and 2 fillies . They are they ones that we know of and raced

With Deep Impct he has had only 1 Group 1 winner (Saxon Warrior), two if you include Donnacha’s Derby winner (Aidan had him at 2 ) and a Group 2 filly who was well tested at 2

The French used the rest

For the kind of money Deep Impact costs for cover , not to mention the logistics of getting the mare covered, not a great return , especially as they don’t tend to win anything after their classic win

Useless ? No but don’t paint him as a great stallion over in Europe . Nice try though. Sad


Classic mean very little without adding WFA group 1s .

The other side of this is how many Galileo’s and other top stallion runners does he each year and what ratio of them are Group 1 winners. 14 horses in 6 years is not a lot to go by. Judging his quality as a stallion by that metric does not make sense.

Also I can only imagine the logistics of sending a mare over to Japan for a visit whilst he was still alive

BoldReason

Randy Archer wrote: »

For the kind of money Deep Impact costs for cover , not to mention the logistics of getting the mare covered, not a great return , especially as they don’t tend to win anything after their classic win

Hardly an argument worth having about the price and logistics of getting mares to him considering.

tryfix

Randy Archer wrote: »

I will ask you one more time , who was using the word “useless” .

Aidan O’Brien has had 12 Deep Impacts in the past 6 years and 2 fillies . They are they ones that we know of and raced

With Deep Impct he has had only 1 Group 1 winner (Saxon Warrior), two if you include Donnacha’s Derby winner (Aidan had him at 2 ) and a Group 2 filly who was well tested at 2

The French used the rest

For the kind of money Deep Impact costs for cover , not to mention the logistics of getting the mare covered, not a great return , especially as they don’t tend to win anything after their classic win

Useless ? No but don’t paint him as a great stallion over in Europe . Nice try though. Sad


Classic mean very little without adding WFA group 1s .

12 Deep Impacts returning 2 G1 winners and a G2 winning filly.

1 in 6 = 16.6% G1 winners to runners

1 in 4 = 25% Group winners to runners

= Stellar.

At that rate for every 100 Galileos going through Ballydoyle they'd have to produce 16 individual G1 winners out of them to match that and that simply does not happen.

You are not dealing with like for like. Deep Impact wouldn't have kept up that strike rate with his Ballydoyle runners, he can't now because he's dead which is a breeding disaster on a par with the early demise of Danehill.

Deep Impact is a Japanese Stallion, it's an incredibly rich racing nation with huge prize money. IMO It's also one of the hardest places in the World in which to win G1 races. They have very few G1 races on their calendar and an incredible amount of well bred horses competing for them.

How many Group 1 Japanese winners has Galileo had... Zero AFAIK, Galileo in Australia ( with dozens of group class imports as well his Southern Hemisphere bred crops) and the USA has been a pale shadow of his European self.


The Ballydoyle Deep Impacts cost little to produce, they had breeding rights in him which is why the Deep Impacts at Ballydoyle are out of Coolmore owned and raced dams. The cost involved is that of shipping the mares to him and boarding them with a Japanese Stud farm for as long as they are in production out there.

Contrast the fates of the few "home bred" Deep Impacts that passed though Ballydoyle over recent years with that of the "home bred" War Fronts. War Front gets dozens of the very best of Ballydoyles Galileo line broodmares and he has had just a handful of G1 winners out of them.

I'd agree that there's a lack of multiple G1 winners out of Deep Impact. But at that end of the bloodstock business getting any G1 or black type on the board will be enough to send an animal off to stud at the end of their 3yo season.

There was also the slight problem for European Breeder's and trainers of understanding how to get the best out of Deep Impact. Which mares suit him best like in Galileo's case he's magic with the Danehill line.

Randy Archer

11117 wrote: »

The other side of this is how many Galileo’s and other top stallion runners does he each year and what ratio of them are Group 1 winners. 14 horses in 6 years is not a lot to go by. Judging his quality as a stallion by that metric does not make sense.

Also I can only imagine the logistics of sending a mare over to Japan for a visit whilst he was still alive

are ye under the assumption that I think Aidan is a bad trainer or lucky ? God no

14 horses , normally no , but at the cost it takes to employ Deep Impact’s services / what the lads paid at the auction (though I think most of them were homebred ) , that’s a hell of a lot Money and lord knows where they go after racing (the fillies and Saxon aside )

As for the Galileos , they dominate the Group races in Europe and not just in the UK and Ireland and not just for Coolmore . They also , as you know, collect group 2s and 3s and decent place money in big races . We all know that he’s become a pretty good sire of sire in the space of 10 years (New Approach being the first of his progeny to sire a G1 /classic ) his fillies are showing to be good broadmares too , as you know

As you also know , a big reason why Deep Impact lead the table worldwide for prize money was due to the insane prize money Japan offers compared to Europe

Randy Archer

tryfix wrote: »

12 Deep Impacts returning 2 G1 winners and a G2 winning filly.

1 in 6 = 16.6% G1 winners to runners

1 in 4 = 25% Group winners to runners

= Stellar.

At that rate for every 100 Galileos going through Ballydoyle they'd have to produce 16 individual G1 winners out of them to match that and that simply does not happen.

You are not dealing with like for like. Deep Impact wouldn't have kept up that strike rate with his Ballydoyle runners, he can't now because he's dead which is a breeding disaster on a par with the early demise of Danehill.

Deep Impact is a Japanese Stallion, it's an incredibly rich racing nation with huge prize money. IMO It's also one of the hardest places in the World in which to win G1 races. They have very few G1 races on their calendar and an incredible amount of well bred horses competing for them.

How many Group 1 Japanese winners has Galileo had... Zero AFAIK, Galileo in Australia ( with dozens of group class imports as well his Southern Hemisphere bred crops) and the USA has been a pale shadow of his European self.


The Ballydoyle Deep Impacts cost little to produce, they had breeding rights in him which is why the Deep Impacts at Ballydoyle are out of Coolmore owned and raced dams. The cost involved is that of shipping the mares to him and boarding them with a Japanese Stud farm for as long as they are in production out there.

Contrast the fates of the few "home bred" Deep Impacts that passed though Ballydoyle over recent years with that of the "home bred" War Fronts. War Front gets dozens of the very best of Ballydoyles Galileo line broodmares and he has had just a handful of G1 winners out of them.

I'd agree that there's a lack of multiple G1 winners out of Deep Impact. But at that end of the bloodstock business getting any G1 or black type on the board will be enough to send an animal off to stud at the end of their 3yo season.

There was also the slight problem for European Breeder's and trainers of understanding how to get the best out of Deep Impact. Which mares suit him best like in Galileo's case he's magic with the Danehill line.

It doesn’t happen in a season because , in part, a typical Ballydoyle Galileo horse will win 2-3 or at least 2 group 1s in a season . There’s only so many group 1s

The non WFA Group 1s are star boasters and no more ie Prix DIspan

Yes, Japan is an exceptional horse nation , but Deep Impact doesn’t have much competition . The European horses that went over didn’t have a good time eg Workforce (who went over for a couple of million ) and Stoute’s King George winner, Harbinger

War Front , lol, soft ground forget it . Remember Coolmore had a thing for Tapit too . War Front hardly commanded the fee DI did

Coolmore’s other Irish stallions (the mighty Montjeu and High Chapareal) have done better than Galileo in Oz and Giant Causeway was the man in the US , but hey even Bolger’s Teofilo has done well over in Oz

Any boo, unlike Japan , I wouldn’t trust a damn thing that happens in Oz . Handicaps ? Galileo did sire the Cox Plate winner though and a golden slipper stakes . Trainers flogging their horses at inadequate distances and grades just to get a run (cough a nice low weight for the cup cough cheating ) springs to mind

As you full well know , regular trips to Oz nearly killed Galileo . DI didn’t have to leave his stable in Japan to get love .

But all the major races are in Europe . Galileo’s kids have down well at the breeders Cup, Hong Kong International and done okay

Bar sprinters at 3 years +as you know, Galileo has sired Group 1 winners at every distance imaginable in flat racing