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Which rainfaill forecast, or, is more accurate? Trying to make plans

  • 12-06-2020 1:19pm
    Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭

    Myself and a couple of friends were hoping to meet up for some socially distant outdoor chats in Dun Laoghaire over the weekend. I've been trying to decide which day is likely to be better, weather-wise, but the generally-in-agreement and have me stumped with their divergence this time.

    These are charts for Dun Laoghaire Harbour, as "Dun Laoghaire" seems to target the centre of the county which is obviously a fair bit inland and thus prone to different weather conditions, we'd be meeting on the seafront near the East Pier.

    Met Eireann:

    Saturday -




    vs Yr:


    In general, which tends to have a better handle on likely rainfaill, accepting as always that rainfall is always notoriously difficult to pin down a day or two in advance? For Dun Laoghaire, Yr is clearly suggesting that Saturday is likely to be the nicer afternoon, while Met Eireann has been steadfast for a couple of days now in suggesting that Sunday afternoon will have far less rain. Obviously complicated by the fact that both models predict rain for both days overnight the night before and lasting well into the morning.

    Any advice?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,993 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC

    My advise is don't pay any attention to them.

    It's very hard/almost impossible to accurately pin down showers at an exact location a day or two in advance, or even a few hours in advance.

    In order to give you that hourly forecast, the app simply looks at whether the model forecasts a shower in your exact location at whatever time. Now maybe, the model isn't showing any rain at your location, but there's a massive shower just south of you. The model won't be able to predict the shower to that level of accuracy, so it's entirely possible it could rain in your location, despite the model predicting the shower further South.

    Any of those forecasts for rainfall should be taken with a massive pinch of salt and used only as a rough guideline.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3

    Well we should know by now, did it rain in Dun Laoighre this morning?