Where to keep money

Empty_Space

Supposing you have decided to get out...where are you keeping cash?.
Is currency as much of a risk right now with possible inflation?

stainluss

Empty_Space wrote: »

Supposing you have decided to get out...where are you keeping cash?.
Is currency as much of a risk right now with possible inflation?

Gold ETF is my pick until it weathers.

Geuze

Empty_Space wrote: »

Supposing you have decided to get out...where are you keeping cash?.
Is currency as much of a risk right now with possible inflation?

The possible downturn and recession will lead to lower inflation.

Coil Kilcrea

Cash = opportunity so bide you’re time and buy some blue chips when you’re comfortable for the long term. No other asset class will do better over time. And if cash means you sleep better then it’s very valuable.

Empty_Space

Are people being naive?, I don't feel comfortable holding a lot of Euro right now.

The currency is a house of cards.

Coil Kilcrea

Jesus Empty Space, haven’t we enough to be worrying about without the currency as well?
The virus, the economy, the markets, no government, and now the bloody euro?
I better go to sleep ..... where’s the smiley face when you need it?

Don’t worry about the euro......

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Cryptocurrency market is very appealing right now. It's a low-risk investment if you're willing to hold out for the right moves. Buy a little bit, spend a while watching the markets, set some fluctuation alerts. I've bought several currencies at various times in the last four years and made my money back hundredfold at this point selling them high and then buying them back again low.

You would have to get a feel for the highs and lows before putting any serious money into them, but it's good to have a bit of it in these tumultuous times.

Jim2007

Empty_Space wrote: »

Are people being naive?, I don't feel comfortable holding a lot of Euro right now.

The currency is a house of cards.

How exactly is it a house of cards and I don’t mean repeating what the talking heads said. I mean hard economic facts.

European banks have strong T1 ratios than in the last crisis, the major economies of Europe follow the Austrian school have done well in paying down debt, Ireland included. The ECB and SNB have much higher reserves than going into the last crisis and the Euro Group is better coordinated. And on top of that the amount of European corporate that needs to be refinanced in the next few years is relatively low and cash is cheap in any case.

If you seriously think a major trading block is going to let its currency collapse, then you are going to be very disappointed.

Empty_Space

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

Jesus Empty Space, haven’t we enough to be worrying about without the currency as well?
The virus, the economy, the markets, no government, and now the bloody euro?
I better go to sleep ..... where’s the smiley face when you need it?

Don’t worry about the euro......

But all are linked unfortunately.

artanevilla

If I'd the spare cash I'd be buying now. Best time to in my opinion.

phantom_lord

artanevilla wrote: »

If I'd the spare cash I'd be buying now. Best time to in my opinion.

This pandemic is getting started. Far more countries are going to end up like Italy. There's going to be plenty of time to buy.

Mad_maxx

Empty_Space wrote: »

Are people being naive?, I don't feel comfortable holding a lot of Euro right now.

The currency is a house of cards.

dont worry about it , if the euro fails , money is the last thing you will be worried about as everything will have fallen apart

i wish i had sold my stocks as recent as monday , bide your time , this thing is now worse than 2008 as there is no human fix so far , we cant throw tax payers money at it like in 2008

Mad_maxx

artanevilla wrote: »

If I'd the spare cash I'd be buying now. Best time to in my opinion.

you do realise the U.S market is now officially in a bear market , bear markets last at least nine months , it will be time enough buying in six months at the earliest , trump is now toast , this crisis will likely even see a shift to the left in america which will hurt stocks further

Empty_Space

Anyone know best place to buy Gold?, I think its a good bet to spread risk a bit.

hoganj

I bought gold and others from www.goldmoney.com in the past. Not sure if that's what you were after. They worked fine for me a few years ago anyway.

The Tetrarch

I keep a file of Dow highs and lows.
My money is in National Savings, waiting for this crash.
Forget about interest rates, inflation, exchange rates.
I expect the DJIA to go to about 14,000 over about five years probably to 2024.

The average % fall in the DJIA from peak to trough since ~1900 is -38% from the high.
That -38% average fall is perhaps understated as it includes a few false lows of very short duration:
-19% in 1957 four months after the high
-27% in 1962 six months after the high
-21% in 1990 three months after the high
-19% in 1998 six weeks after the high.
In the above four cases the market powered ahead, and they could be taken as temporary falls in a longer bull market.

Date DJIA High/Low % move
1982/08/12 776.92 low -24%
1987/08/25 2,722.42 high 250%
1987/10/19 1,738.74 low -36%
1990/07/16 2,999.75 high 73% (start)
1990/11/10 2,365.10 low -21%
1998/07/17 9,337.97 high 295%
1998/08/31 7,539.07 low -19%
2000/01/14 11,722.98 high 55% (395%)
2002/09/10 7,286.27 low -38%
2007/09/10 14,164.53 high 94%
2009/09/03 6,547.05 low -54%
2020/02/12 29,568.57 high 352%

average low 29,568.57 18332.51 -38%
recent low 29,568.57 13601.54 -54%


There have been two extended run ups in recent years:
1990 to 2000 (9.5 years), 2,999.75 to 11,722.98, and a +395% gain.
2009 to 2020 (10.5 years), 6,547.05 to 29,568.57, and a +352% gain.

I threw in two rough calculations at -38% (DJIA falls to 18,332) and -54% (DJIA falls to 13,601).
These were the average falls (-38% and incl four mini falls mentioned above) and the 2009 fall OF -54%.

Empty_Space

hoganj wrote: »

I bought gold and others from www.goldmoney.com in the past. Not sure if that's what you were after. They worked fine for me a few years ago anyway.

Do you store your gold at home or in their vaults?

Jim2007

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I keep a file of Dow highs and lows.
My money is in National Savings, waiting for this crash.
Forget about interest rates, inflation, exchange rates.
I expect the DJIA to go to about 14,000 over about five years probably to 2024.

The average % fall in the DJIA from peak to trough since ~1900 is -38% from the high.
That -38% average fall is perhaps understated as it includes a few false lows of very short duration:
-19% in 1957 four months after the high
-27% in 1962 six months after the high
-21% in 1990 three months after the high
-19% in 1998 six weeks after the high.
In the above four cases the market powered ahead, and they could be taken as temporary falls in a longer bull market.

Date DJIA High/Low % move
1982/08/12 776.92 low -24%
1987/08/25 2,722.42 high 250%
1987/10/19 1,738.74 low -36%
1990/07/16 2,999.75 high 73% (start)
1990/11/10 2,365.10 low -21%
1998/07/17 9,337.97 high 295%
1998/08/31 7,539.07 low -19%
2000/01/14 11,722.98 high 55% (395%)
2002/09/10 7,286.27 low -38%
2007/09/10 14,164.53 high 94%
2009/09/03 6,547.05 low -54%
2020/02/12 29,568.57 high 352%

average low 29,568.57 18332.51 -38%
recent low 29,568.57 13601.54 -54%

There have been two extended run ups in recent years:
1990 to 2000 (9.5 years), 2,999.75 to 11,722.98, and a +395% gain.
2009 to 2020 (10.5 years), 6,547.05 to 29,568.57, and a +352% gain.

I threw in two rough calculations at -38% (DJIA falls to 18,332) and -54% (DJIA falls to 13,601).
These were the average falls (-38% and incl four mini falls mentioned above) and the 2009 fall OF -54%.

So you are using a none weighted index to make what point exactly?

The Tetrarch

Jim2007 wrote: »

So you are using a none weighted index to make what point exactly?

The very exact point of my post is in these comments
"My money is in National Savings, waiting for this crash.
Forget about interest rates, inflation, exchange rates."

If you want me to expand on that I say "keep your money" (capital) secure, ignoring interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and promised gains from investment advisers (who take your money).
I would not invest in anything based on an index. When I invest I buy shares.
I will go beyond keeping my money safe and invest it in shares when the market has burned itself out. That might take years.

The market cycle:
"quiescence, improvement, confidence, excitement, overtrading, convulsion, pressure, stagnation, ending again in quiescence" or 1) displacement; 2) credit creation; 3) euphoria; 4) bust; 5) revulsion
Look at share prices and house prices over the last ten years, and compare them to the above market cycles.
In 2020 there is a big risk staying invested. Security of capital is my only aim.

hoganj

Empty_Space wrote: »

Do you store your gold at home or in their vaults?

In their vaults explicitly. Last time I checked there was an extra fee to physically take out gold. Also to cash in there would be another fee. Not worth the hassle if you ask me. Better to use it as any other investment. Buy low, sell high etc.

Jim2007

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The very exact point of my post is in these comments
"My money is in National Savings, waiting for this crash.
Forget about interest rates, inflation, exchange rates."

If you want me to expand on that I say "keep your money" (capital) secure, ignoring interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and promised gains from investment advisers (who take your money).
I would not invest in anything based on an index. When I invest I buy shares.
I will go beyond keeping my money safe and invest it in shares when the market has burned itself out. That might take years.

The market cycle:
"quiescence, improvement, confidence, excitement, overtrading, convulsion, pressure, stagnation, ending again in quiescence" or 1) displacement; 2) credit creation; 3) euphoria; 4) bust; 5) revulsion
Look at share prices and house prices over the last ten years, and compare them to the above market cycles.
In 2020 there is a big risk staying invested. Security of capital is my only aim.

So you're basically trying to time the market and expecting them to ring a bell....


But here is the thing the biggest losses do not happen at the crash point, they happen in the days, months and years after the crash point, when people jump back in and then bottle it again...

The Tetrarch

Jim2007 wrote: »

So you're basically trying to time the market and expecting them to ring a bell....
But here is the thing the biggest losses do not happen at the crash point, they happen in the days, months and years after the crash point, when people jump back in and then bottle it again...

The mods do not like us bringing up old threads. I had a thread "Bottom" a while back.
There will not be a bell rung at the bottom. You need to decide yourself.
There is a saying "only a fool buys at the bottom and sells at the top", but why not wait until prices are very attractive, and have the funds ready?
Pick the stock you want, and the price you want.
I won't be bottling it, and jumping in and out of the market.