Who's gonna be the Democratic nominee?

Winning_Stroke

So we've had our first taster of the real on-the-ground vote for who'll stand for the Democrats against Trump this week and there were surprises all round.

Biden is fading fast (interesting read here if you're interested - https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/02/how-joe-biden-blew-it/605821/) and the polls are interesting.

From smarkets

Bernie Sanders - 38.46%

Michael Bloomberg - 18.87%

Pete Buttigieg - 13.89%

Joe Biden - 12.50%

Elizabeth Warren - 5.71%

I just can't see the Dems going for Bernie. His "socialist" label, his recent health issues etc. and their form on not going for him. But then who?

Who do you think will get the nod?

super_furry

I think Bloomberg could just throw so much money at it that he almost buys the nomination.

I also think that he could realistically have the best chance of beating Trump - again from outspending him.

UpBack1234

Hard to know. I just don't see them going for Sanders either. He doesn't appeal even to centrist Democrats let alone the type of people who voted for Trump in 2016 and may now be on the fence about him for 2020, so it's hard to see him beating him in a head-to-head. Biden could have been a threat (hence the dirt-digging adventures in Ukraine) but his campaign, at least so far, has been incredibly lacklustre. Maybe it's Bloomberg at the end of the day. He certainly has the funds to push it all the way - and he's already spent huge on anti-Trump advertising - and he could inspire interest in a Billionaire v Billionaire sort of way..?

Joe_ Public

If or when Warren quits, it will give the Sanders campaign a further boost as well as a totally clear run on the left. Dont know if she will officially endorse him, but hope she does. There will very likely be a concerted campaign from the centre to take Sanders down and that could play into Bloombergs hands. Looks between the two to me.

Winning_Stroke

UpBack1234 wrote: »

Hard to know. I just don't see them going for Sanders either. He doesn't appeal even to centrist Democrats let alone the type of people who voted for Trump in 2016 and may now be on the fence about him for 2020, so it's hard to see him beating him in a head-to-head.

Agreed. The Dems need to win back the Obama voters who went for Trump. I'm no political hack but you can see the attack lines easy, he's a socialist so dig up all his quotes and associations through the years with leftists (e.g. venezuela etc), pair them against the current US economy. The man took his honeymoon in the Soviet Union... And of course recent health scares.

he could inspire interest in a Billionaire v Billionaire sort of way..?

Battle of the Billionaires!

GooglePlus

I'd love to see Bernie go on and do it but unfortunately he doesn't fit into the DNCs corporate agenda, so he'll most likely be shafted somewhere along the line.

I reckon the DNC would rather see Trump in office for another 4 years over Bernie, one of their own.

Bernie isn't in the pockets of corporate lobbiests and actually speaks for the every day Joe, so he's the likes of Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare.

Bernie will bring about real change but he won't be allowed, so we'll have another 4 years of privatised government.

super_furry

It's mad who Sanders is portrayed as this out of control communist when in real terms, someone like Leo Varadkar is more left wing.

Donald Trump

super_furry wrote: »

I think Bloomberg could just throw so much money at it that he almost buys the nomination.

I also think that he could realistically have the best chance of beating Trump - again from outspending him.

Not unless he borrows Mickey-D's box he won't

Water John

The notion that Warren is a Hilary clone is pretty daft. Warren seems to have peaked early. I think it will go all the way to Convention. That is then where you'll see coalescing of delegates after the first round of ballots.
Long shot guess would be Sanders with Klobuchar as VP.

Loafing Oaf

My actual money is on Biden but that's not looking too clever now. I thought for a bit Buttigieg might emerge as the centrist messiah but the stars haven't aligned for him either. You have to say it's looking like Bernie's to lose at this point...

James Brown

Likely be Mayor Pete. No way the Dems will let Sanders run. He's too left for them.

Tork

A huge stumbling block is that Mayor Pete is gay. Americans aren't going to vote in a gay man.

super_furry

super_furry wrote: »

It's mad who Sanders is portrayed as this out of control communist when in real terms, someone like Leo Varadkar is more left wing.

How have you come to such a conclusion?

Ulysses Gaze

Winning_Stroke wrote: »

Agreed. The Dems need to win back the Obama voters who went for Trump. I'm no political hack but you can see the attack lines easy, he's a socialist so dig up all his quotes and associations through the years with leftists (e.g. venezuela etc), pair them against the current US economy. The man took his honeymoon in the Soviet Union... And of course recent health scares.



Battle of the Billionaires!

The winner to not only win the Presidency, but to shave the losers head live on inauguration day!

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/wwe-wrestlemania-trump-mcmahon-wrestling-17126722

AllGunsBlazing

They've had four years to prepare for this but not a single candidate seems capable of luring a wide cross section of voters under one tent. They each have a certain demographic that they appeal to but not right across the board like Barack or Bill.

Water John

Barack and Bill were centerists. Barack actually quite conservative by DNC standards.

Tchaikovsky

Bernie, with Nina Turner as VP.

Joe_ Public

I dont believe the oft repeated claim that sanders is over reliant on a largely white voter base. He's doing well with minorities and with the latino vote. A poll i saw on the lgbtq vote had him in front with Buttigieg, surprisingly - at least to me anyway, coming in fourth, behind Biden. The worry for any dem candidate is not getting that vote out, not just Sanders.

Water John

Yes the key to a D win is turnout. If they do they beat the GOP. So the nominees for P and VP needs to be balanced and dynamic. They also need to give key roles to some of the other candidates, prior to the presidential election. Everyone on board.

AllGunsBlazing

A Sanders v Trump election would be fascinating.

Who would the big news networks row in behind? Fox is obviously a given.