A United Ireland - Ireland's Brexit?

suicide_circus

Just something i was musing on.

Would a border poll be Ireland's equivalent to Britain's Leave/Remain referendum?

Obviously is an entirely different situation, what I'm getting at is the monumental nature of it, the divisiveness, the bitterness, the bad blood.

Both are a leap into the dark, a roll of the dice economically and socially.

Thoughts?

osarusan

I'd like to think that the path forward would have been negotiated and laid out in public before the people are asked to vote on it.

Having said that, I think a majority of people across the island would vote for a united Ireland regardless of how much of a leap into the dark it would be, or even if it would obviously be a financial burden.

suicide_circus

osarusan wrote: »

I'd like to think that the path forward would have been negotiated and laid out in public before the people are asked to vote on it.

that would be a good "learning" (excuse the middle management jargon) from the sh1tshow across the water

suicide_circus

osarusan wrote: »

Having said that, I think a majority of people across the island would vote for a united Ireland regardless of how much of a leap into the dark it would be, or even if it would obviously be a financial burden.

are there stats on that?

osarusan

suicide_circus wrote: »

are there stats on that?

Not that I know of, but I think the prospect of all-island unity will outweigh any economic unknowns, or even known issues.


I'd say the only thing that would make enough people reconsider would be the prospect of loyalist violence.

Cina

It would require the UK to financially support the North for decades, because we certainly wouldn't be able to take them in without that. I really don't think people see logically how difficult and potentially disastrous for the economy it could be, they don't want to because it ruins their fantasy scenario. It's a bit like Brexit in that aspect, I suppose.

piplip87

Plenty to be sorted out down here first though. Health, Housing and the coat of living needs to be tackled.

Things are cheaper North of the Boarder too, looking outside the ideological reasons for a United Ireland it will come down to what's left in the pocket after tax and bills are paid.

Things like bin collection, recycling charges, medical charges etc will all have a part to y in the debate.

Cina

Also if I was Northern irish and was told my license fee was now going to go to RTE instead of the BBC I'd definitely vote no.

kevcos

United Ireland will be a romantic tragedy but granted will look better on a map and we'll have an improved national football team.

Fr Tod Umptious

suicide_circus wrote: »

Just something i was musing on.

Would a border poll be Ireland's equivalent to Britain's Leave/Remain referendum?

Obviously is an entirely different situation, what I'm getting at is the monumental nature of it, the divisiveness, the bitterness, the bad blood.

Both are a leap into the dark, a roll of the dice economically and socially.

Thoughts?

Yes it would be exactly the same.

You would have those on the pro united Ireland side offering all the positives about it without getting into any details of the negativity.
Our own version of sunlit uplands as it were.

Then there would be those against doing the complete opposite.

Then there would be a middle ground cautioning about it all.

I've always believed that a UK government would not call a border poll until they are satisfied that it would pass with a sizable margin.

A 51/49 % outcome would cause all sorts of bother.

Peregrinus

suicide_circus wrote: »

Just something i was musing on.

Would a border poll be Ireland's equivalent to Britain's Leave/Remain referendum?

Obviously is an entirely different situation, what I'm getting at is the monumental nature of it, the divisiveness, the bitterness, the bad blood.

Both are a leap into the dark, a roll of the dice economically and socially.

Thoughts?

A border poll would be conducted in NI only.

The question would be some variant on "Shall Northern Ireland cease to be part of the United Kingdom and instead form part of a united Ireland?"

First big difference from the idiotic 2016 referendum; no politician could promise that the majority decision would be implemented. Assuming the majority voted to leave the UK and join a united Ireland, this could obviously only happen by agreement with the Republic.

So what the vote would do is what the 2016 Brexit vote should have done, if the UK had not been run at the time by a gang of congenital idiots; signal the start of a process for developing an actual concrete plan that could, if acceptable to all stakeholders, be implemented.

What the Northern Ireland Act 1998 actually says about a border poll is this; if NI votes for unification with the Republic, the Secretary of State must "lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland".

There's nothing there about a referendum in the Republic. Nevertheless politically and, I think, constitutionally a referendum would be necessary in the Republic, and no doubt the agreeement between the UK and Irish governments would explicitly state that it would be subject to approval by referendum in both NI and RoI. Quite possibly the agreement would involve amendments to the Irish constution, and the constitutional refendum to effect those amendments would also function as the referendum to approve the unification proposal.

And this referndum would be quite different from the Brexit referendum. The Brexit referendum was a vote to reject EU membership, but not a vote to approve any particular alternative relationship, any plan for leaving, any proposed agreement or any UK legislation. Campaigners could promise what they liked; they could make different and inconsistent promises to appeal to appeal to different groups of voters; they could sell fantasies. And they could, after the event, treat the referendum as an excuse to do whatever they liked, even if it was the flat opposite of what they had said in the referendum campaign that they would do.

Whereas the referendums in NI and RoI about a proposal for a united Ireland will be about concrete things; actual textual amendments to the Irish constitution; the actual text of an actual treaty between the UK and Ireland, giving specific details of what legals changes are to be made, what political and judicial structures are to be established or altered, what rights individuals and communities will have, etc, etc. The campaigning about this,and the debate about it, will be nothing like the 2016 referendum and, whatever the outcome, nobody will be able to abuse it in the way the result of the 2016 referendum has been abused.

Which is not to say that any of this will be easy, or pain-free. But the difficulties and problems will be quite different from those which resulted from the Brexit referendum, because the process will be completely different, from the bottom up.

suicide_circus

suicide_circus wrote: »

Just something i was musing on.

Would a border poll be Ireland's equivalent to Britain's Leave/Remain referendum?

Obviously is an entirely different situation, what I'm getting at is the monumental nature of it, the divisiveness, the bitterness, the bad blood.

Both are a leap into the dark, a roll of the dice economically and socially.

Thoughts?

Not in any way equivalent but share a similar streak of Nationalism.

Sober Crappy Chemis

I love an oul Rebel sing-song as much as the next fella, but realistically a United Ireland is not going to happen.

I mean, there are approximately 800,000 people up there who want to remain in the UK. What are we going to do about that?

No thanks.

lawred2

Cina wrote: »

Also if I was Northern irish and was told my license fee was now going to go to RTE instead of the BBC I'd definitely vote no.

This is not a serious point.

odyssey06

This shouldn't be a 51% decision. Nor should Brexit, Scottish independence or any of our EU referendums. Something which commits to you a practically irrevocable course of action.

Should be at least 55%.

suicide_circus

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's nothing there about a referendum in the Republic. Nevertheless politically and, I think, constitutionally a referendum would be necessary in the Republic

ah there's not a hope in hell it would happen without a "people's vote" north and south

odyssey06

Cina wrote: »

Also if I was Northern irish and was told my license fee was now going to go to RTE instead of the BBC I'd definitely vote no.

Some people might be more attached to the NHS but each to their own.

lawred2

Cina wrote: »

It would require the UK to financially support the North for decades, because we certainly wouldn't be able to take them in without that. I really don't think people see logically how difficult and potentially disastrous for the economy it could be, they don't want to because it ruins their fantasy scenario. It's a bit like Brexit in that aspect, I suppose.

Naturally the UK would pay their obligations under any reunification agreement. And would do so in perpetuity.

UK government in 2018 worked out after all pluses and minuses that NI subvention was about £9bn..

So about 4 children's hospitals.

There would be worldwide good will for such a unification project with plenty political will to support inward investment. Everyone wants to be part of a good news story.

Brexit is not a good news story. So I don't think it is like a United Ireland at all.

suicide_circus

lawred2 wrote: »

Everyone wants to be part of a good news story.

unionists?

Cina

lawred2 wrote: »

This is not a serious point.

No sh*t!

The HSE instead of the NHS however..

lawred2

suicide_circus wrote: »

unionists?

Care to quote the entire context

lawred2

Cina wrote: »

No sh*t!

The HSE instead of the NHS however..

This is true.

However the NHS is no longer what it used to be.. and I find it hard to see how Brexit and the Tories are going to arrest the slide.

NIMAN

Cina wrote: »

Also if I was Northern irish and was told my license fee was now going to go to RTE instead of the BBC I'd definitely vote no.

I think the politics of NI, the Republic, and potential unification is a slightly bigger issue than TV programming.:rolleyes:

NIMAN

lawred2 wrote: »

This is true.

However the NHS is no longer what it used to be.. and I find it hard to see how Brexit and the Tories are going to arrest the slide.

The NHS is a mess, especially in NI. Have you seen some of the waiting list figures recently? They are no better than the HSE.

kevcos

lawred2 wrote: »

Care to quote the entire context

I'm going to take a wild guess that SC is referring to the bizarre idea that Unionists would prefer to stay in the union, and thereby inferring they wouldn't see a United Ireland as a good news story.

Buuuuut, I could be way off the mark.

lawred2

kevcos wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild guess that SC is referring to the bizarre idea that Unionists would prefer to stay in the union, and thereby inferring they wouldn't see a United Ireland as a good news story.

Buuuuut, I could be way off the mark.

But that wasn't the context of what I posted...

I didn't say everyone would consider it a good news story - but in most cases those that do consider it a good news story like to be involved. I was specifically referring to inward investment.

But yeah - unionists are against a united ireland. Imagine that.

Is basic comprehension an issue for some people?

Politelymad

UI would be an absolute train wreck if it happens in a time frame of anything less than fifty year minimum. We've had ring side seats to over the last three plus years to the disastrous social consequences of proceeding with a major status quo change on the basis of a wafer thin majority and the English don't have a recent track record for shooting at each other.

If people want a UI done properly then you're looking at a decades long project of political and economic buy in. In some respects Brexit might offer a route towards that depending on what the final agreement looks like. If NI politicians start to look to Dublin for assistance with the EU instead of London.

At the end of that process the Irish Republic in its current form will have to cease to exist to be replaced by a new nation state. In essence it would not be NI joining the Republic but both entities being dissolved to form a new nation.

As the recent argument over the proposed RIC commemoration showed there's no willingness to meet the other side half way. The people who want a UI are the very people who would soil the prize they seek.

Cina

NIMAN wrote: »

I think the politics of NI, the Republic, and potential unification is a slightly bigger issue than TV programming.:rolleyes:

Do you not understand what tongue-in-cheek comments are?

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Naturally the UK would pay their obligations under any reunification agreement. And would do so in perpetuity.

Why?

What obligations would the U.K. have?

El Weirdo

Aegir wrote: »

Why?

What obligations would the U.K. have?

Civil service pensions.

For a kick off.

DS86DS

I think it should be interesting to see the outcome of the calls for a new Scottish independence referendum, moreso given that a large majority of Northern Unionists would associate themselves with Scotland, which in turn has been consistently calling for more say over Brexit since Day 1.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.euronews.com/amp/2020/01/29/scottish-parliament-votes-to-hold-new-independence-referendum

lawred2

El Weirdo wrote: »

Civil service pensions.

For a kick off.

public service, civil service and state pensions etc etc

4068ac1elhodqr

If you want a UI, then there is one golden contextual condition that will signficantly ease (even force) such an event, and that is Indie Scotland.

I forsee Nicola Sturgeon (or any other leader of the SNP) as currently being the single greatest potential republican*.
Even in an involuntary position (in relation to UI) on these Islands, *at this current moment in time

Get your Braveheart DVD's out. [ Scotexit == UI ]
Without an Indie Scot, it will be x10 more difficult to acheive.

Hamsterchops

suicide_circus wrote: »

Just something i was musing on.

Would a border poll be Ireland's equivalent to Britain's Leave/Remain referendum?

Obviously is an entirely different situation, what I'm getting at is the monumental nature of it, the divisiveness, the bitterness, the bad blood.

Both are a leap into the dark, a roll of the dice economically and socially.

Thoughts?

Support in the North for a so called "United Ireland" is currently running at about 40% ....

Need we say more?

Ask the question again in about six years time, once Brexit has bedded in.

Jump_In_Jack

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Support in the North for a so called "United Ireland" is currently running at about 40% ....

Need we say more?

Ask the question again in about six years time, once Brexit has bedded in.

Source for that statement?

NIMAN

Its not a matter of IF but WHEN

facehugger99

suicide_circus wrote: »

are there stats on that?

There is a Behavior and Attitudes survey from April '19 that shows only 37% of respondents say they are willing to pay more tax for a UI.

The number who would actually be willing to put their hands in their pockets, is likely less than half of this, when push comes to shove.

Not a hope of a referendum passing in the ROI for many, many decades regardless of NI's intentions.

Politelymad

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Support in the North for a so called "United Ireland" is currently running at about 40% ....

Brexit's result was 51.9% for. Look at the social damage it's caused.
Until you're taking of north of 67% then the answer to that is 'so what'.

lawred2

facehugger99 wrote: »

There is a Behavior and Attitudes survey from April '19 that shows only 37% of respondents say they are willing to pay more tax for a UI.

The number who would actually be willing to put their hands in their pockets, is likely less than half of this, when push comes to shove.

Not a hope of a referendum passing in the ROI for many, many decades regardless of NI's intentions.

Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax for anything and you'll get a rather disappointing result..

lawred2

Politelymad wrote: »

Brexit's result was 51.9% for. Look at the social damage it's caused.
Until you're taking of north of 67% then the answer to that is 'so what'.

that's not actually the law though

facehugger99

lawred2 wrote: »

Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax for anything and you'll get a rather disappointing result..

Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax in theory and you'll get a rather more positive result than asking them to actually cough up.

lawred2

facehugger99 wrote: »

Ask 100000 people are they willing to pay more tax in theory and you'll get a rather more positive result than asking them to actually cough up.

nobody volunteers to 'cough up' more tax (in reality or in theory)

tax is legislated for by the government of the day

such polls are stupid

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

public service, civil service and state pensions etc etc

The NI civil service pension is devolved, so I would imagine that would transfer.

Why would state pensions be the obligation of the U.K. government? Surely that would need to be aligned with those in the south?

lawred2

Aegir wrote: »

The NI civil service pension is devolved, so I would imagine that would transfer.

Why would state pensions be the obligation of the U.K. government? Surely that would need to be aligned with those in the south?

everyone who has paid into the UK system will be entitled to their UK pension prorata..

those already retired will get their full UK pension.

there is no way the Irish state will pay the civil or public service pensions of another state... devolved or otherwise. Sure these could include military and security service pensions... No the obligation is the with the state the service was for. Not where you're resident.

There might be some crossover but it won't mean that the UK ends up being quids in.

facehugger99

lawred2 wrote: »

such polls are stupid

:rolleyes:
Sure, when they don't give you the answer you're hoping for.

You're quite wrong of course - a referendum on a UI will literally be a referendum on willingness to pay additional tax.

bappelbe

lawred2 wrote: »

UK government in 2018 worked out after all pluses and minuses that NI subvention was about £9bn..

So about 4 children's hospitals.

Or in other words a banking crisis every 4 years
https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/bank-bail-out-estimated-to-have-cost-state-41-7bn-says-comptroller-1.4035332?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&mode=amp&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15804727140973&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fbank-bail-out-estimated-to-have-cost-state-41-7bn-says-comptroller-1.4035332

Hamsterchops

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

Source for that statement?

Our Taoiseach.

...and I presume he's well informed.

armaghlad

facehugger99 wrote: »

:rolleyes:
Sure, when they don't give you the answer you're hoping for.

You're quite wrong of course - a referendum on a UI will literally be a referendum on willingness to pay additional tax.

It might be a bit more complex than that.

lawred2

armaghlad wrote: »

It might be a bit more complex than that.

leave him at it

facehugger99

armaghlad wrote: »

It might be a bit more complex than that.

Some things need to be simplified for the hard of thinking.

Politelymad

Not much willingness to learn from the Brexit being shown.

Here's the other lesson to be learned. Don't listen to anyone who's promising what someone else will do.