GE2020: Dublin South Central

Gavin "shels"

Confirmed candidates:

Catherine Byrne TD (FG),
Joan Collins TD (Ind/Independents 4 Change),
Bríd Smith TD (PBP),
Senator Catherine Ardagh (FF),
Aengus Ó Snodaigh TD (SF),
Cllr Patrick Costello (Green)
Cllr Rebecca Moynihan (Lab),
Cllr Tara Deacy (Social Democrats),
Serina Irvine (National Party),
Tony Murray (Renua),
Richard Murray (Ind),
Alan Kerrigan (Ind)

Can see Aengus and Joan Collins getting back in without issue. Toss up then between Byrne, Ardagh, Smith, Moynihan & maybe Costello for the remaining two seats.

Rashers Big Log

I’ll keep a milkshake in my fridge for the NP candidate if she calls round

caff

Is that the same Alan kerrigan? Lying about being an army captain and having an affair?
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/wicklow-people/20120704/281861525602972

heebusjeebus

I don't usually give Labour a preference but I'll put Rebecca Moynihan high up my list this time.

subpar

heebusjeebus wrote: »

I don't usually give Labour a preference but I'll put Rebecca Moynihan high up my list this time.

One to watch.

vriesmays

National Party #1.

retalivity

heebusjeebus wrote: »

I don't usually give Labour a preference but I'll put Rebecca Moynihan high up my list this time.

Same. She'll be getting my 1, voting for her as a person, not the party.
Slim pickings elsewhere...
The useless fg candidate with her whole family on the oireachtas payroll
The ff dynasty daughter with the god-given right to be elected
Cartridges O'Snodaigh for the shinners
Assorted headbangers
The SD and GP candidates, ive never heard of.

I would give sf a preference if it was anyone but aonghus.

Goodshape

heebusjeebus wrote: »

I don't usually give Labour a preference but I'll put Rebecca Moynihan high up my list this time.

subpar wrote: »

One to watch.

retalivity wrote: »

Same. She'll be getting my 1, voting for her as a person, not the party.

I'm more clueless than usual for this election; why is she such a standout?

retalivity

Goodshape wrote: »

I'm more clueless than usual for this election; why is she such a standout?

She's pretty visible locally, ive had dealings with her on a few issues. Tbh, she is the best of a bad bunch...her and Tina McVeigh are the only ppl ive ever seen around or pipe up about local projects (d8).

heebusjeebus

Goodshape wrote: »

I'm more clueless than usual for this election; why is she such a standout?

She's a friend of a friend and they've nothing but nice things to say about her.
So as a person, she gets my vote. As i said, i wouldn't usually touch Labour.

Gavin "shels"

Rebecca will be getting my vote also, again not for Labour as a party but for the excellent work she puts in around Dublin 8. Have always gave her my number 1 in the local elections, she's extremely proactive and has been at any local issue meetings I've attended. Rarely see or hear much from others up around Donore Ave side of Dublin 8 aside from the odd letters from Byrne, Joan Collins/Brid Smith & Ardagh.

SPDUB

retalivity wrote: »

She's pretty visible locally, ive had dealings with her on a few issues. Tbh, she is the best of a bad bunch...her and Tina McVeigh are the only ppl ive ever seen around or pipe up about local projects (d8).

That seems to only in the D8 end of the constituency.

Can't say I've heard of her since last election ( Tina McVeigh heard a little bit ) in the D12 end

Edgware

Byrne FG
Ardagh FF
O Snodaigh SF
Smith PBP

tampopo

Do you think Ardagh, with newborn twins, will be in a position to devote time to the constituency? Odd choice to leave a €70k a year, one day a week, for a full on 7 day a week for €94k and generous expenses. Unless she takes it easy and coasts along doing not much.
Moynihan not active in rest of constituency, really, is she?
O'Snodaigh may gain from people falling out of love with the governing parties (the outgoing coalition)

Gavin "shels"

tampopo wrote: »

O'Snodaigh may gain from people falling out of love with the governing parties (the outgoing coalition)

Wiki says he's been a TD since 2002, can't see that changing. Never really seen him doing much around D8 but seems to be well regarded in D12 even when I worked up that way.

L1011

If the Wolfe Toner thing didn't dent him, a drop in local election support won't either - consider how low it was when he got in.

It's the new 2016 and some 2011 intake SF TDs in trouble.

Amirani

tampopo wrote: »

Do you think Ardagh, with newborn twins, will be in a position to devote time to the constituency? Odd choice to leave a €70k a year, one day a week, for a full on 7 day a week for €94k and generous expenses. Unless she takes it easy and coasts along doing not much.

That's not really the job of a TD. You can imagine that's the way many people vote though.

I personally would be happy if we had more TDs like those in Ardagh's position. People complain about politicians being "out of touch" with real issues (e.g. childcare, issues with kids), and then actively choose to vote against a working mother with young kids.

Asitis2019

tampopo wrote: »

Do you think Ardagh, with newborn twins, will be in a position to devote time to the constituency? Odd choice to leave a €70k a year, one day a week, for a full on 7 day a week for €94k and generous expenses. Unless she takes it easy and coasts along doing not much.
Moynihan not active in rest of constituency, really, is she?
O'Snodaigh may gain from people falling out of love with the governing parties (the outgoing coalition)

I used to live in this area, and know the constituency so will share my analysis.

Moynihan's base is Rialto, O'Snotty's base is Ballyfermot, Byrne's base is Inchicore and Bluebell, and Collin's base is Crumlin/Drimnagh. Other areas do not have a candidate, and those other areas are more middle class.

I've voting Moynihan, but she is missing a trick by not canvassing in the less blue collar bases. She is a far more sensible choice than Collins and Smith, and smart voters of a left persuasion will vote Lab first followed by the others. Unfortunately, Collins and Smith have strong supporters, but will be vying for the same base - only one will get elected. I'd say Smith - she has a stronger profile, and has proved much more articulate; while I fundamentally disagree with her policies, she has been an excellent performer in the Dail and media. She deserves to be retained.

I would say she has an outside chance and she will be transfer friendly with FG and FF voters, but she will be competing with a Green candidate. It is widely believed that O'Snotty will top the poll, followed by Ardagh. There is no way Byrne will be returned, so the big question is where her transfers and any of Ardagh's excesses go - my guess is that they will go either green or labour. My hunch would be labour. Byrne has been a horrendous politician, and the constituency deserves a lot better than her and O'Snotty

The problem is that Collins and Smith are competing for the same vote, and they will gain O'Snotty's excesses.

It will be between Moynihan and the Green candidate for the last seat. I'd give the last seat to Moynihan on the basis that Labour held a seat here for many years up until 2016.

Gavin "shels"

Asitis2019 wrote: »

I used to live in this area, and know the constituency so will share my analysis.

Moynihan's base is Rialto, O'Snotty's base is Ballyfermot, Byrne's base is Inchicore and Bluebell, and Collin's base is Crumlin/Drimnagh. Other areas do not have a candidate, and those other areas are more middle class.

I've voting Moynihan, but she is missing a trick by not canvassing in the less blue collar bases. She is a far more sensible choice than Collins and Smith, and smart voters of a left persuasion will vote Lab first followed by the others. Unfortunately, Collins and Smith have strong supporters, but will be vying for the same base - only one will get elected. I'd say Smith - she has a stronger profile, and has proved much more articulate; while I fundamentally disagree with her policies, she has been an excellent performer in the Dail and media. She deserves to be retained.

I would say she has an outside chance and she will be transfer friendly with FG and FF voters, but she will be competing with a Green candidate. It is widely believed that O'Snotty will top the poll, followed by Ardagh. There is no way Byrne will be returned, so the big question is where her transfers and any of Ardagh's excesses go - my guess is that they will go either green or labour. My hunch would be labour. Byrne has been a horrendous politician, and the constituency deserves a lot better than her and O'Snotty

The problem is that Collins and Smith are competing for the same vote, and they will gain O'Snotty's excesses.

It will be between Moynihan and the Green candidate for the last seat. I'd give the last seat to Moynihan on the basis that Labour held a seat here for many years up until 2016.

Can't say I've ever had Patrick Costello knock at my door in D8, nor do I think he lives around here... looks like he may be Terenure/Rathmines based... Can see his only votes being people interested in the Greens.

Asitis2019

Gavin shels wrote: »

Can't say I've ever had Patrick Costello knock at my door in D8, nor do I think he lives around here... looks like he may be Terenure/Rathmines based... Can see his only votes being people interested in the Greens.

Ivan Yates predicted he would win a seat, but I think Ivan is applying the green surge too liberally. Greens have never done well, and this guy is an unknown.

Yes, you are right - I don't see a green surge here, and I think Rebecca is well placed for a seat. In fact, I would say more of his votes will transfer to Rebecca and Brid Smith than say Joan Collins

Here is how I call it

O'Snotty (1st)
Ardagh (2nd)
Moynihan (3rd)
Smith (4th)

vriesmays

If you want our Defence Forces paid properly vote Serina Irvine (NP).

Asitis2019

vriesmays wrote: »

If you want our Defence Forces paid properly vote Serina Irvine (NP).

Actually I don't think we should have a defense forces. I think we should send the money to the UK and have their properly trained army protect us.

vriesmays

They won't do that anymore, it's called Brexit. Same wih our airspace.

Asitis2019

vriesmays wrote: »

They won't do that anymore, it's called Brexit. Same wih our airspace.

Are you the candidate?

vriesmays

No, the voter.

retalivity

Got home this evening to a deluge of flyers in the mailbox.
Richard Murray really should have gotten someone to proofread his literature:




Serena Irvine, jesus what a looper. Wouldn't waste the space of an image on boards servers on her, never mind a preference

Gavin "shels"

Aengus & Brid Smith both in so far

Gavin "shels"

You'd imagine the majority of Brid Smith's 888 surplus votes will be going to Joan Collins.

BeerNut

Fianna Fáil-Free Since 2011. I'm not too bothered what happens after this

Gavin "shels"

Looks unlikely we'll have any Dublin 8 based TDs...

retalivity

Ardagh gone, byrne teetering?

Ben D Bus

Holy moly, massive transfer to Greens in Count 5!

retalivity

Presuming costello is safe now, will byrne get 800+ more transfers than collins?

seamus

retalivity wrote: »

Presuming costello is safe now, will byrne get 800+ more transfers than collins?

I'd say probably, but there's a good chance this could come down to Costello's surplus, assuming he gets 2000+ transfers from FF.

Very tight.

Gavin "shels"

Collins & Costello in