GE2020: Dublin Central

Brussels Sprout

Here are the confirmed candidates running so far:

• Deputy Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael),
• Deirdre Duffy (Fine Gael),
• Mary Fitzpatrick (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin),
• Cllr. Joe Costello (Labour Party),
• Gillian Brien (People Before Profit Alliance),
• Cllr. Garry Gannon (Social Democrats),
• Cllr. Neasa Hourigan (Green Party),
• Ian Smith (Aontú),
• Éilis Ryan (Workers Party),
• Cllr. Christy Burke (Independent),
• Sarah Louise Mulligan (Independent)

With this being back up to a 4-seater and the retirement of Maureen O'Sullivan there are effectively 4 seats with only 2 TDs running.

Who looks best placed to take those two seats and are Mary Lou and Donohue safe?

a very cool kid

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Here are the confirmed candidates running so far:

• Deputy Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael),
• Deirdre Duffy (Fine Gael),
• Mary Fitzpatrick (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin),
• Cllr. Joe Costello (Labour Party),
• Gillian Brien (People Before Profit Alliance),
• Cllr. Garry Gannon (Social Democrats),
• Cllr. Neasa Hourigan (Green Party),
• Ian Smith (Aontú),
• Éilis Ryan (Workers Party),
• Cllr. Christy Burke (Independent),
• Sarah Louise Mulligan (Independent)

With this being back up to a 4-seater and the retirement of Maureen O'Sullivan there are effectively 4 seats with only 2 TDs running.

Who looks best placed to take those two seats and are Mary Lou and Donohue safe?

Probably Fitzpatrick and that Uber dickhead Gannon

Peregrine

Probably Fitzpatrick and either Hourigan or Gannon.

spurious

The 'left' option is split all over the place, so god knows where that vote would go. Eilis Ryan very active in the area, but often that means nothing for GEs.

subpar

Costello has a good track record representing the area and must have a good chance.

its_steve116

Aw God, not Sarah Louise Mulligan...

Augme

It's going to be a very tough one to call for the last seat. Arguably one of the most constituencies going. Mary Lou and Pascal are definitely safe. I don't know much about Mary Fitzpatrick but would assume Fianna fail name will get her in. Really is very tight for the last seat between Gary, neasa and Joe. I'd say nease is the favourite given she has the green party name but it is very close. Social Democrats really need Gary to get the seat though. If he doesn't, could well be the end of the party.

Peregrine

its_steve116 wrote: »

Aw God, not Sarah Louise Mulligan...

Not a chance in hell

spurious

Not that I particularly want them knocking on my door, but quite surprised the racist numpties 'National party' and 'Identity ireland' have not slithered out to sign up for this constituency.

Assetbacked

Had to Google who Sarah Louise Mulligan is;

http://www.sarahlouisemulligan.com/singer.html

Not sure about her loony policies, but that photo could help her get some disproportionate representation.

In serious discussion, the problem with the left in the constituency is the problem with left wing parties in general across the board; they can't mobilise themselves and unite together for the greater good (the irony). I think the split in votes between the left wingers will probably benefit the Greens who may sneak a seat as they get are likely to get the transfers over the other minor candidates. FF should take the other seat.

scrumqueen

Mary Lou and Gannon, not sure about the rest

imme

Burke, Costello, Fitzpatrick and Gannon all have to be in the running for the 3rd and 4th seats after
Donoghue and Mc Donald get the first 2 seats.

I don't see the Green candidate coming through, it is not a Green-friendly constituency.

It says a lot for Mary Lou that she isn't running a running mate.

There is little hope of SF keeping their current number of TD's in the country given their high profile retirements.

imme

spurious wrote: »

The 'left' option is split all over the place, so god knows where that vote would go. Eilis Ryan very active in the area, but often that means nothing for GEs.

She wasn't re-elected to her council seat in the 2019 locals.
It would be something of a Lazarus to the power of 200 if she was to win a Dáil seat.

She won 303 First Preference votes in the 2016 general election.

hynesie08

If Facebook likes were votes, Christy Burke would be a sure thing, thankfully they're not.

Mary lou and pascal are safe, and I imagine that twat gannon will get in, Joe costello will depend on how many of the people who voted for him pre 2016 are still alive....

The Phantom Jipper

Am I right in saying that this constituency overlaps largely with Cabra-Glasnevin and North Inner City local election areas?

I'd say Mary Lou is a cert. I think Pashal will be made sweat a bit, this isnt fertile ground for Fine Gael. He got a massive boost from Costello's transfers last time which won't be there again in the absence of a transfer pact. Fitzpatrick should finally win a seat if the poll bump is accurate. And I'd speculate that Gannon takes the 4th, I believe he's from Maureen O'Sullivan's neck of the woods so may soak up some of that Gregory vote.

Amirani

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Am I right in saying that this constituency overlaps largely with Cabra-Glasnevin and North Inner City local election areas?

Correct.

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

I'd say Mary Lou is a cert. I think Pashal will be made sweat a bit, this isnt fertile ground for Fine Gael. He got a massive boost from Costello's transfers last time which won't be there again in the absence of a transfer pact. Fitzpatrick should finally win a seat if the poll bump is accurate. And I'd speculate that Gannon takes the 4th, I believe he's from Maureen O'Sullivan's neck of the woods so may soak up some of that Gregory vote.

Agreed on all of this. First 3 are close to certs (bookies odds support this). Then last seat between Gannon and Hourigan.

Edgware

imme wrote: »

Burke, Costello, Fitzpatrick and Gannon all have to be in the running for the 3rd and 4th seats after
Donoghue and Mc Donald get the first 2 seats.

I don't see the Green candidate coming through, it is not a Green-friendly constituency.

It says a lot for Mary Lou that she isn't running a running mate.

There is little hope of SF keeping their current number of TD's in the country given their high profile retirements.

Running two candidates is ok in other constituencies but Queen Mary Lou must have it all for herself

The Phantom Jipper

Can someone be a dote and put up the amusing pic of the dog & Christy Burke squinting?

spurious

A right rough shower canvassing for the Shinners today in North Strand.
I voiced disagreement with their stance on something and by golly, their true colours show quick enough when they are annoyed.
They haven't gone away you know.

VG31

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Can someone be a dote and put up the amusing pic of the dog & Christy Burke squinting?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110038592&postcount=127

Love that picture!

spurious wrote: »

A right rough shower canvassing for the Shinners today in North Strand.
I voiced disagreement with their stance on something and by golly, their true colours show quick enough when they are annoyed.
They haven't gone away you know.

She doesn't even seem to bother canvassing around where I live.

spurious

VG31 wrote:

She doesn't even seem to bother canvassing around where I live.

She wasn't with them. She sent her 'representatives'. In fairness to her, I have never seen her channel an inner Provo thug.

Alicano

I've only had leaflets in the door. No canvassing from anyone yet. I remember being a kid during the 80's and some Councillor/TD used to drive around with 4 megaphone speakers attached to the top of a car with their policies blasting. Quite effective if I still remember it today

L1011

As far as I know that's now illegal

Alicano

L1011 wrote: »

As far as I know that's now illegal

Good fun though

suicide_circus

joan collins in south central god love her looks ravaged with the drink

hankless

Finding it hard to pick my 1-2-3-etc. I want to vote for some individuals, but in other cases I want to vote for their party.

I'd like to give Gary Gannon a high preference, but think the Soc Dems lack strong leadership.
I'd like to give PBP a high preference, but haven't seen anything from Gillian Brien to warrant it.
I'd like to give Joe Costello a high preference, but don't think Labour deserve it.

My only certainties are that I'm not giving any preference to FF, FG, Aontú, Christie Burke and Sarah Mulligan.

scrumqueen

hankless wrote: »

Finding it hard to pick my 1-2-3-etc. I want to vote for some individuals, but in other cases I want to vote for their party.

I'd like to give Gary Gannon a high preference, but think the Soc Dems lack strong leadership.
I'd like to give PBP a high preference, but haven't seen anything from Gillian Brien to warrant it.
I'd like to give Joe Costello a high preference, but don't think Labour deserve it.

My only certainties are that I'm not giving any preference to FF, FG, Aontú, Christie Burke and Sarah Mulligan.

I think the only way the SD's can have stronger leadership is by having a few more TD's for a start!

The Phantom Jipper

Has anyone seen those godawful Dolores Webster posters and leaflets? The ones saying to "Put Dee in da house (Leinster House)".

Who is the use of "da" instead of "the" meant to appeal to? Why use the term "house" if you're not confident enough people will even know what it means? Who is Dee? (After some brief research, it seems Dee Wall is an alias she uses at protests and when tweeting)

So many questions.

brettmirl

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Has anyone seen those godawful Dolores Webster posters and leaflets? The ones saying to "Put Dee in da house (Leinster House)".

Who is the use of "da" instead of "the" meant to appeal to? Why use the term "house" if you're not confident enough people will even know what it means? Who is Dee? (After some brief research, it seems Dee Wall is an alias she uses at protests and when tweeting)

So many questions.

Here you go

abcabc123123

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Fitzpatrick should finally win a seat if the poll bump is accurate.

I thought she was a cert when the campaign started but now I'm not sure. A good chunk of her LE19 vote is in the two Ashtown areas that aren't in the GE constituency, and she may find it harder to come by first preferences running against Pascal Donohue, rather than the two no-name FG candidates she faced in the locals.

Last night's poll has FF and the Greens level pegging in Dublin at 16% and if she's anywhere near Neasa Hourigan in first preferences, she'll lose out on transfers.

pow_pow

How many canvassers has everyone had? I just had one, in Phibsboro, Gary Gannon. Granted I am not home til near 8pm each night, but still only seeing one was a surprise.

VG31

pow_pow wrote: »

How many canvassers has everyone had? I just had one, in Phibsboro, Gary Gannon. Granted I am not home til near 8pm each night, but still only seeing one was a surprise.

Gary Gannon and Neasa Hourigan were canvassing on my road. There were also canvassers for Mary Lou and someone else (didn't see who they were).

pow_pow

Has anyone/everyone got their polling card? I haven't. I checked the register a few weeks ago and am definitely on it.

L1011

pow_pow wrote: »

Has anyone/everyone got their polling card? I haven't. I checked the register a few weeks ago and am definitely on it.

Just bring photo ID and proof of address if you don't get the card.

pow_pow

Thanks. I'm not that concerned but it's just that additional peace of mind of having it in advance knowing there won't be any issues at the ballot box.

I've invested a lot of time into choosing who to vote for, so it would be very frustrating if I wasn't able to vote!

The Phantom Jipper

pow_pow wrote: »

Thanks. I'm not that concerned but it's just that additional peace of mind of having it in advance knowing there won't be any issues at the ballot box.

I've invested a lot of time into choosing who to vote for, so it would be very frustrating if I wasn't able to vote!

I only got mine today which was a bit later than usual. I'd say it'll be out tomorrow.

pow_pow

Crisis over, I got my polling card

Peregrine

Hourigan and Gannon made serious gains in the last week or two. It's possible they'll both get in now.

Fitzpatrick could lose out. Lower 1st pref than Greens and Mary Lou's votes are transferring left. Donohoe is also doing quite poorly but Glasnevin area tallies not in yet. Both will do better there.

Christy Burke is doing better than FF so far and would expect a big transfer from SF too.

Donohue, Hourigan and Gannon it is then, and obviously Mary-Lou who walked it.