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General election betting

  • 15-01-2020 7:19am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ LuasSimon


    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 704 BoldReason


    Seems like this should either be moved to the politics or the general gambling forum.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,013 Mod ✭✭✭✭ The Mig
    Moderator


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=684


  • Registered Users Posts: 830 ✭✭✭ carq
    Registered User


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .


    Whats the bet here - FF to be largest party at 8/11?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭ IAMAMORON
    Banned


    carq wrote: »
    Whats the bet here - FF to be largest party at 8/11?

    I would not be underestimating fg. They are even money.

    Anything can happen , it will be a dirty campaign.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭ easypazz


    I'd say FG will target Martin and constantly point out that he set up the HSE and was in the cabinet the time of the economic crash etc.

    They will paint him as yesterdays man.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭ yaboya1
    Registered User


    Interesting read, but not sure how it relates to horse racing?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,835 ✭✭✭✭ Hello 2D Person Below
    Registered User


    I've had a little nibble on FF/Green/Ind @12/1.


  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 65,405 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty
    Put that light out!


    Moved from Horse Racing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ LuasSimon


    yaboya1 wrote: »
    Interesting read, but not sure how it relates to horse racing?

    Fair enough but Horseracing punters might bet on another event i thought. Id take an 8/11 winner in any discipline.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Gianna Future Shag


    "Time for a change"

    Housing (The poor homeless tent chap from yesterday, now has life-changing injuries.)
    Health (More trolley records broken, take up Reiki or find a good chickenbones witchdoctor, if you can.)
    Insurance (Can't be bought, competitively. Slip on a grape? Congratulations.)
    Crime (It's all gone 'mafiosa'. If out in the sticks, lock your doors.)
    Illegal migration (Why so many war-torn {not at war} Albanians?)
    Childcare (€€€ costs and scandals.)

    FF. (Most seats) bit short, outside of accas ([email protected]).
    However 3.5wks is still a long time in politics, and a Saturday event could be a unknown variable.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Gianna Future Shag


    FF (most seats) now down to between 1.44 and 1.5, starting to look like they have it in the bag.
    Election day might well be 1.25-1.33 (as suggested 1/3 above) type of price, the way the country is going.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Gianna Future Shag


    Reduced further again, now just average of 1.20 for FF most seats.
    The best price from just a few days ago (1.73) appears to be long gone.

    G1FDp8g.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,548 ✭✭✭✭ Francie Barrett
    Registered User


    Great shout, I had debated putting a 100 quid at 8/11 on it but prevaricated to my folly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,528 ✭✭✭ PieOhMy
    Registered User


    Reduced further again, now just average of 1.20 for FF most seats.
    The best price from just a few days ago (1.73) appears to be long gone.

    G1FDp8g.png

    Got on at 1.5 myself but the previous day I went to a ladbrokes shop to get the 1.73 but they told me that was a uk price and they dont do irish politics here. The 1.5 was in paddy as was the only other shop around me.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭ IAMAMORON
    Banned


    I would be hedging the FG price if I was anyone on FF at anything around evens. It is still 3 full working weeks until the election, so much can happen and these prices will change. It is a great opportunity for anyone on FF at some of the more juicier FF prices to buy themselves a free bet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭ franglan
    Registered User


    3/1 Leo to stay on is great value for me. Thoughts?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Gianna Future Shag


    franglan wrote: »
    3/1 Leo to stay on is great value for me. Thoughts?
    This singular source of 4.0 is a significant advantage over anywhere else, could be a useful acca builder offset (if already got FF 1.72+).

    As a small 'wildcard' option would also add the 8.0 for Warren (for DN) across the pond. Think she'll easily beat the two leaders (the old man and creepy hair-sniffer). Ultimately DT will easily win again, but these are longer term markets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,883 ✭✭✭ Trimm Trabb
    Registered User


    Anyone like to speculate on make up of next gov?

    Martin 1/16 to be leader but how will he get his 80 seats?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 443 ✭✭ Kh1993


    Anyone like to speculate on make up of next gov?

    Martin 1/16 to be leader but how will he get his 80 seats?

    Small bet on FF-Lab-Green-SocDems at 14/1 with PP. My own prediction would have that lot getting 75-80 so could possibly need an independent or 2 too. But good value I thought.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,883 ✭✭✭ Trimm Trabb
    Registered User


    Kh1993 wrote: »
    Small bet on FF-Lab-Green-SocDems at 14/1 with PP. My own prediction would have that lot getting 75-80 so could possibly need an independent or 2 too. But good value I thought.

    That’s what I backed too.

    Based on their rules if there is independents involved in that coalition it would be a winner as long as none of the independents are ministers.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭ IAMAMORON
    Banned


    That’s what I backed too.

    Based on their rules if there is independents involved in that coalition it would be a winner as long as none of the independents are ministers.

    You would have to worry about either Shane Ross or Katherine Zappone assuming either get in. They would definitely be looking to be in the picture if they support a government.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,414 ✭✭✭✭ retalivity
    Registered User


    Pearse doherty highest first prefs, was 10/11 last night, now 8/11 on boyles. Paddys market on same seems to be suspended.

    He's going to get somewhere between 1.5-2 quotas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,414 ✭✭✭✭ retalivity
    Registered User


    retalivity wrote: »
    Pearse doherty highest first prefs, was 10/11 last night, now 8/11 on boyles. Paddys market on same seems to be suspended.

    He's going to get somewhere between 1.5-2 quotas.

    Balls...21,044, 2nd to Denise Mitchell with 21,344


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭ declanflynn
    Registered User


    Ff are 5/6 to have under 45.5 total seats, experts are saying their total will be 42, could be a good bet


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,610 ✭✭✭ yaboya1
    Registered User


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    There’s always an angle or two in Election betting, I’m after a large bet by my standards n the simple market of most seats . In the last election Fine Gael got 50 and Fianna Fáil 44 .
    Since them with various movements it’s now Fine Gael 47 , Fianna Fáil 45 present seats .
    The local elections were good for Fianna Fáil and government issues with health , housing , crime etc in different parts of the country will see Fine Gael lose seats . I also feel in rural constituencies Sinn Fein will lose seats with their denial of traveller crime and general PC gone mad agenda . Theirs and Fine Gaels losses will in many instances will result in additional FF seats which will see them move ahead by about 6/7 seats to be the largest party handily enough .The ludicrous Black and Tan march idea from Charlie Flanagan was the icing on the cake for this bet which will make marginal Fine Gael seats losing seats for them . Fine Gael will do well enough in Dublin which is booming for those who own a house but rural Ireland and has been hugely neglected by Fine Gael and is in a far different state .backed at 5/6 and it’s still 8/11 . Will be 1/3 come Election Day .

    In hindsight, this was a great shout as it went off about 1/10 (and won too obviously).
    However, given the margin of victory and the manner FF crawled over the line, it would appear the 5/6 at the time of the tip was a fairly accurate price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 506 ✭✭✭ Frozen Veg
    Registered User


    Is another election not very very very likely now?


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