GE 2020 Cork North Central

dulpit

2016 Election Results:

Elected TDs and first preference share:

• Billy Kelleher (FF) 27.9%
• Mick Barry (AAA–PBP): 15.7%
• Jonathan O'Brien (SF): 12.2%
• Dara Murphy (FG): 10.3%

Parties and total first preference share:

• Fianna Fáil: 27.9% (1 candidate)
• Sinn Féin: 19.6% (2 candidates)
• Fine Gael: 17.8% (2 candidates)
• AAA-PBP: 15.7% (1 candidate)
• Labour: 7.3% (1 candidate)
• Green Party: 3.3% (1 candidate)
• Worker's Party: 2.8% (1 candidate)
• Others: 5.7% (5 candidates)

2019 By-Election results and first preference share

• Pádraig O'Sullivan (FF): 28.0%
• Colm Burke (FG): 21.1%
• Thomas Gould (SF): 19.7%
• John Maher (Lab): 9.7%
• Oliver Moran (Green): 7.4%
• Fiona Ryan (Solidarity–PBP): 4.4%
• Finian Toomey (Aontú): 3.9%
• Sinéad Halpin (Soc Dems): 2.5%
• Others (4 candidates): 3.3%

Interesting election coming up in North Central. 3 of the 4 elected TDs are not standing (Billy Kelleher went to Europe, Jonathan O'Brian has announced his retirement and Dara Murphy is off on his gravy train). With the strong vote at the by-election and with O'Brien not running, you would have to think that Gould is strong candidate to get in. O'Sullivan is a shoe-in. The other 2 seats I'm not so sure on. You would think that there is a Fine Gael seat, and Colm Burke did well in the by-election, but he's not the most inspiring of candidates, and the Dara Murphy stink still hasn't gone away. I think Mick Barry is done for too, so if I was calling it I'd probably say 1 FF, 1 SF, and then 2 of FF, FG, Lab and Solidarity for the last 2 seats.

What say ye?

dulpit

Adrian Kavanagh's site (https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/) has the following as announced candidates so far, obviously more will come out over the next few days:

• Senator Colm Burke & Lorraine O’Neill (Fine Gael)
• Padraig O’Sullivan TD (Fianna Fáil)
• Mick Barry TD (Solidarity)
• Sinéad Halpin (Social Democrats)
• Cllr. Oliver Moran (Green Party)

I think John Maher is running for Labour. I also think Fianna Fáil would be mad to run only 1 candidate, so I expect there to be a running mate for O'Sullivan (probably city-based).

Brussels Sprout

Thread on this already here