Farming 2030

Anyone see rethinkx report on beef and dairy farming in 2030?

alps

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone see rethinkx report on beef and dairy farming in 2030?

Any links?

alps

alps wrote: »

Any links?

Google rethinkx, you can't add links on boards

50% less cows in the US

Major reduction in demand for conventional farm products due to cheaper cultured alternatives

I think the report is a bit over ambitious. But still there is a bit in it

High level details:
By 2030, demand for cow products will have fallen by 70%. Before we reach this point, the U.S. cattle industry will be effectively bankrupt. By 2035, demand for cow products will have shrunk by 80% to 90%. Other livestock markets such as chicken, pig, and fish will follow a similar trajectory.

Production volumes of the U.S. beef and dairy industries and their suppliers will decline by more than 50% by 2030, and by nearly 90% by 2035. In our central case, by 2030 the market by volume for ground beef will have shrunk by 70%, the steak market by 30%, and the dairy market by almost 90%.

alps

Looked down through the principals involved...running portfolio investments across many asset classes with a focus on the risk and opportunities of technology disruption.

Naturally they're seeing and playing with the current media sentiment and having a play against agriculture.

London is going to become a dangerous place. The only reason that I can see for the City to push the Brexit agenda is that they can see a new empire opportunity controlling finance. Not in a holding and hiding capacity like Switzerland, but more of a mind, emotional and financial investment way.

Look at how many controlled minds now troll twitter...how difficult will it be to create a new world empire controlling these "simple" minds...

The new world empires will have no land, no land borders, no nationalities....they'll just exist in a laptop..

London wanted rid of controls that control the control..

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Google rethinkx, you can't add links on boards
50% less cows in the US
Major reduction in demand for conventional farm products due to cheaper cultured alternatives
I think the report is a bit over ambitious. But still there is a bit in it

High level details:
By 2030, demand for cow products will have fallen by 70%. Before we reach this point, the U.S. cattle industry will be effectively bankrupt. By 2035, demand for cow products will have shrunk by 80% to 90%. Other livestock markets such as chicken, pig, and fish will follow a similar trajectory.

Production volumes of the U.S. beef and dairy industries and their suppliers will decline by more than 50% by 2030, and by nearly 90% by 2035. In our central case, by 2030 the market by volume for ground beef will have shrunk by 70%, the steak market by 30%, and the dairy market by almost 90%.

Looks like that might be better suited to Twooldboots 'vegan 2020' thread.

He seems quite knowledgeable in that area tbh

alps

alps wrote: »

Looked down through the principals involved...running portfolio investments across many asset classes with a focus on the risk and opportunities of technology disruption.

Naturally they're seeing and playing with the current media sentiment and having a play against agriculture.

London is going to become a dangerous place. The only reason that I can see for the City to push the Brexit agenda is that they can see a new empire opportunity controlling finance. Not in a holding and hiding capacity like Switzerland, but more of a mind, emotional and financial investment way.

Look at how many controlled minds now troll twitter...how difficult will it be to create a new world empire controlling these "simple" minds...

The new world empires will have no land, no land borders, no nationalities....they'll just exist in a laptop..

London wanted rid of controls that control the control..

London wanted to stay in Europe.

I think some of the predictions are realistic but the timelines aren't.

Some of it is driven by clickbate, event selling and also a drive for investment.

Farming is a beautiful way of life. However protein developed by processes in lab meat style set ups will get cheap. Cuts like steak etc are a long while off as the structures etc still not existing.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Looks like that might be better suited to Twooldboots 'vegan 2020' thread.

He seems quite knowledgeable in that area tbh

These technologies would not technically be vegan as it is animal protein

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

These technologies would not technically be vegan as it is animal protein

Wont stop eejits pushing it as an 'alternative'. It's still highly processed crap

And processed much the same way as all the other plant based industrial foodstuffs ...

https://lachefnet.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/techno-optimism-run-amok-george-monbiots-latest-delusion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

What do you think about it?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

These technologies would not technically be vegan as it is animal protein

Maybe to some on the extreme edges of veganism but to most vegans this would be acceptable as long as no harm came to an animal in the process. At the moment I believe lab cultured meat uses a fetal bovine serum which has to be extracted as the name implies from a calf in utero if this could be worked around in the future then I see the vast majority of Vegans accepting this form of meat.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Wont stop eejits pushing it as an 'alternative'. It's still highly processed crap

And proceesed much the same way as all the other plant based crap ...

https://lachefnet.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/techno-optimism-run-amok-george-monbiots-latest-delusion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

What do you think about it?

The majority don't dispute that the product you mention isn't the healthiest type of food however it's no better or worse for you then a regular burger.

Although I suspect you and some others will disagree.

However I see one of the largest markets for artificial meats to be not Vegans but the Eco conscious as those products have a lower carbon footprint and use less water as well as using a lot less land area.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Wont stop eejits pushing it as an 'alternative'. It's still highly processed crap

https://lachefnet.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/techno-optimism-run-amok-george-monbiots-latest-delusion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

What do you think about it?

Yes taste is a big factor here but cheaper price is also.

For me. I think medium term there is no reason why something like milk couldn't be lab produced. However anything above ground beef is a long way off.

Ribeye, lamb chops and ribs etc. Must be a long way off. If milk etc could be produced in that fashion it would cut a lot of methane emissions.

However the argument is correct that cattle eat grass that leads to fresh grass growth and fertiliser. If the grass wasn't eaten it would lead to rotting vegetation and massive methane emissions.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe to some on the extreme edges of veganism but to most vegans this would be acceptable as long as no harm came to an animal in the process. At the moment I believe lab cultured meat uses a fetal bovine serum which has to be extracted as the name implies from a calf in utero if this could be worked around in the future then I see the vast majority of Vegans accepting this form of meat.

And the strong argument is the reduction in carbon emissions and input costs etc.

Milk production from a lab process would be like printing money. Why aren't major plc looking vat this? Perhaps they are since they sold milk production side of things off etc

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The majority don't dispute that the product you mention isn't the healthiest type of food however it's no better or worse for you then a regular burger. Although I suspect you and some others will disagree. However I see one of the largest markets for artificial meats to be not Vegans but the Eco conscious as those products have a lower carbon footprint and use less water as well as using a lot less land area.

No one I know eats 'burgers' all the time. That's what this suggests.

Dont worry about 'me and some others' btw - it's not me has who done the nutrient analysis on these products. The results show that the fake burgers being pushed by the plant food industry are certainly not as good as a burger made from good quality beef.

As to the bolded bits the plant food industry claims dont stand up to scrutiny as the life cycle analysis is less than comprehensive regarding carbon footprint information and water use

See article linked
https://lachefnet.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/techno-optimism-run-amok-george-monbiots-latest-delusion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Dont get this stuff about land use tbh. Of course land is used for agriculture. Do people think good quality food can be grown in windows boxes or something?

Water John

Sean O'Sullivan invested in a co that was to produce artificial milk in 2 years. Haven't seen it yet.

George Monbiot has a similar art here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet

He also has a prog on Ch 4 @ 10pm. See IFA have got out ahead of it with their messaging this evening.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

No one I know eats 'burgers' all the time. That's what this suggests.

Dont worry about 'me and some others' btw - it's not me has who done the nutrient analysis on these products. The results show that the fake burgers being pushed by the plant food industry are certainly not as good as a burger made from good quality beef.

As to the bolded bits the plant food industry claims dont stand up to scrutiny as the life cycle analysis is less than comprehensive regarding carbon footprint information and water use

See article linked
https://lachefnet.wordpress.com/2020/01/08/techno-optimism-run-amok-george-monbiots-latest-delusion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Grounds beef and burgers must be one of the more popular options for the typical consumer?

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Grounds beef and burgers must be one of the more popular options for the typical consumer?

Ground beef? May I ask are you American? Its called minced beef here. Burgers are certainly not part of any daily meal plan I've came across. Again the point is that good quality grass fed beef beats highly processed crap any day.

Water John

Water John wrote: »

Sean O'Sullivan invested in a co that was to produce artificial milk in 2 years. Haven't seen it yet.

George Monbiot has a similar art here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/08/lab-grown-food-destroy-farming-save-planet

He also has a prog on Ch 4 @ 10pm. See IFA have got out ahead of it with their messaging this evening.

These products will surely put pressure on the farm gate options though? I don't dispute that they may suffer from taste inferiority and also may not be as nutritious

Also two years is nothing in r and d

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Ground beef? May I ask are you American? Its called minced beef here. Burgers are certainly not part of any daily meal plan I've came across. Again the point is that good quality grass fed beef beats highly processed crap any day.

Yeah sorry, meant to say mince, I am farming here. Burgers are on every pub menu I have seen

This isn't necessarily that highly processed though.

_Brian

The crappy end of the market is at risk from these novelty products.

6 burgers for €2 in Tesco etc, they are a crap product anyway and if the best these foods can do is compete with them then good enough. Sausages with less than 60% pork etc, not much struggle getting quorn to taste better than crappy products.

Prime cuts of meat as steaks, roasts, chops, joints will always do well and be in demand.
As people see sense local produce should cut out a strong portion of the market, it keeps money local, foods highly traceable, and reduces foods carbon footprint.

The danger is the power of multinationals to both sway idiots into thinking this plastic food is a nutritious alternative, and continue to fund dubious science to propel the myth that farming is bad for the environment.

_Brian

_Brian wrote: »

The crappy end of the market is at risk from these novelty products.

6 burgers for €2 in Tesco etc, they are a crap product anyway and if the best these foods can do is compete with them then good enough. Sausages with less than 60% pork etc, not much struggle getting quorn to taste better than crappy products.

Prime cuts of meat as steaks, roasts, chops, joints will always do well and be in demand.
As people see sense local produce should cut out a strong portion of the market, it keeps money local, foods highly traceable, and reduces foods carbon footprint.

The danger is the power of multinationals to both sway idiots into thinking this plastic food is a nutritious alternative, and continue to fund dubious science to propel the myth that farming is bad for the environment.

I would agree with what you are saying here.

These lab options will be used by the retailers as a cheap alternative. This will push down the price we we get per kilo and litre etc

Millionaire only not

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I would agree with what you are saying here.

These lab options will be used by the retailers as a cheap alternative. This will push down the price we we get per kilo and litre etc

We can all retire gracefully so !

patsy_mccabe

There is no way you can produce food cheaper in a factory using energy generated from the burning of fossil fuels. Food produced in the fields from FREE solar eneregy (sunshine) is always going to be cheaper.

patsy_mccabe

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

There is no way you can produce food cheaper in a factory using energy generated from the burning of fossil fuels. Food produced in the fields from FREE solar eneregy is always going to be cheaper.

Google solar foods and Finland

That documentary on Ch 4 now doesn't consider the impact in the developing world

Millionaire only not

Millionaire only not wrote: »

We can all retire gracefully so !

Farming is a great way of life. It's always under threat from something though.

Maybe the need rewilding could allow for eco tourism. Go from farming to running a bnb

K.G.

by 2030 they ll have come out with a report to say meat and dairy is better than the alternatives and everyone should change back.cause thats how these things go

K.G.

K.G. wrote: »

by 2030 they ll have come out with a report to say meat and dairy is better than the alternatives and everyone should change back.cause thats how these things go

Progress doesn't have reset switch. Are we going to go back to the horse and cart?

That Ch 4 documentary made sweeping statements on soil erosion. Sure it's a problem in regions where land is cleared with a slash and burn approach with no soil depth etc. Soil erosion is not an issue in our climate.

Nobody talks about the imported fruit and veg from South America and Africa and the damage that does.

Almond milk is also very bad for the environment

Having said that importing millions of tonnes of soya to Ireland from South America to feed cattle in Ireland is unsustainable.