EU vehicle emissions targets/fines

KCross

Saw this useful analysis (from 2018) broken down by manufacturer which shows the depth of trouble some of them are in in relation to this years emissions regulations

https://www.paconsulting.com/insights/2018/driving-into-a-low-emissions-future/

You can download the full report which gives more detail. It makes interesting reading.


Some snippets
Toyota, expectedly, at the top of the table well exceeding its target, with no fines.
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Volvo, JLR and Honda all forecast to meet 2021 target.

The rest forecast to miss target with Fiat seemingly the most exposed. No wonder they are looking for European mergers and buying Tesla's emissions credits!

Ford, VW and Mazda are next in line with large fines (€B's) looming even with ID.3 etc.



Its interesting to see Mazda near the bottom of that table and then I also read this comment from a recent submission by Mazda to the Irish Dail

In relation to the ban on the sale of fossil fuel cars by 2030, representatives of Mazda have noted that an electric vehicle with a battery over 35.5kWh in size would not be as efficient as a comparably-sized diesel vehicle, even after the battery is replaced after 100,000 miles,” he added.

Putting your head in the sand comes to mind as batteries dont get replaced at 100k miles, have a second life after the car and no mention of local emissions!

Apparently Mazda are going to use the get out of jail card which is that if they sell less than 300k cars in the EU they are exempt from the regulations!



Im surprised that Hyundai-Kia are also forecast to miss their targets considering they have decent EV offerings already. Their low volume to date I guess is the issue, so maybe they will turn that around in 2020. Here's hoping.


Eight out of the thirteen car makers forecasted to miss their targets and be fined. Profit drops expected for all of them as the fines are between 10-25% of their earnings. Ouch!
e.g. Accoriding to FT

For some carmakers, the hit to profits could be considerable. To comply, PSA, which is the furthest behind, faces a 25 per cent reduction to earnings per share in 2021, it forecasted.

Profits at others will face a hit, with UBS forecasting a 13 per cent drop at VW, 10 per cent at Renault, 9 per cent at Daimler and 7 per cent at BMW.

They also gave an optimistic forecast (which I presume means unlikely) which would leave only Fiat and Ford missing target so clearly those two have a serious issue ahead of them. It also explains why Ford have decided to use VW's MEB platform as they have nothing in the can themselves and are starting from scratch. Ford and FCA will be burning through cash like only Tesla can!

Lumen

These fines will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher sticker prices, which will make ICE cars less competitive.

Then I assume the fines will be distributed to national governments and may be used to fund (PH)EV subsidies.

It's quite clever really. The alternative would be to tax petrol and diesel, but that's difficult to coordinate across jurisdictions, whereas this can be done EU-wide cos it's not a local tax.

But the end result is that new cars will be more expensive.

unkel

Lumen wrote: »

the end result is that new cars will be more expensive.

Including BEVs which will also be (more) expensive for the foreseeable future provided purchase incentives will disappear soon. Only in a few years time when all big manufacturers (that are left) will mass produce BEVs in the millions, will there be economies of scale, and more competition, and cheaper batteries, so we will eventually see prices come down

But somehow the car industry will have to compensate for the loss of the currently very lucrative parts and servicing business too, which will be decimated because of EVs

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

But somehow the car industry will have to compensate for the loss of the currently very lucrative parts and servicing business too, which will be decimated because of EVs

AFAIK (which isn't much) dealers tend to be third party francishes, and represent a drain on manufacturer profits due to warranty repairs.

The owner of my (lovely) local independent garage said to me "mass EV adoption won't happen because there's no way to make money off servicing" but I think that is a misunderstanding of the dynamics.

Tesla Rangers are the leading edge of the Deliveroo-isation of this business.

That said, if you read the NCT manuals and compare treatment of EVs and ICE vehicles there's not much in it. Sure, you don't have to check for emissions, but the rest of it is much the same.

So older cars are going to need a lot of the same care.

My 14 year old Honda has just started faiing NCTs. The last two failures were chassis corrosion and a cracked side mirror indicator cover.

Just wait until our Teslas start falling apart from rust. I bet it won't take 14 years

KCross

Lumen wrote: »

These fines will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher sticker prices, which will make ICE cars less competitive.

Im sure some of them will need to do that but all that does is force an ever decreasing cycle of reducing sales for them as the other OEM's that are not being fined will become "cheap" in comparison.

I know you'll say that they will just increase they're prices too but ignoring the fines and simply increasing your sticker price will just seal your fate to bankruptcy. They will have to adapt.

One things for sure, the next 5 years are going to be painful for the industry.

The funny thing about Toyota is that the greatest changes to their Hybrid tech came from the ICE and not the hybrid part. Funny because it's basically the same tech since the Gen II Prius except the ICE, sure, there may have been small changes to the hybrid system but the greatest change is the ICE.

Toyota use basically the same battery tech since 1998 when the Gen I Prius was released, yes 22 years lol, however to be fair, at the time the NiMh battery patents forbid the use of this battery tech to be the sole means of propulsion/drive in an automobile, the company that invented the NiMh battery "Ovonics" sold the tech to Chevern Texaco, and it's them that limited the battery tech at the time to no more than hybrid use which is a shame but no surprise but shame on Ovonics for selling the tech to an oil company ! The Prius could have been a lot better and it was toyota who had ambition, the rest of them didn't want to invest the R&D.

It's rich the E.U handing out fines, it's the E.U that allowed the emissions testing scam to go on for many years, the NEDC test was a joke but the car companies kept moaning so the E.U allowed it to continue and they're only now doing something about it because the Yanks caught VW cheating.

And this has to be the funniest part of all, the clamp down on emissions is nothing to do with climate change but actual pollution, Co2 isn't a pollutant and the E.U emissions limits for Nox and PM2.5 and other toxic elements were far higher than that in the U.S and this is why the U.S caught them out because VW knew they could not meet the far stricter U.S emissions regulations without cheating. U.S regulations actually limit pollution far more than in the E.U, The U.S concentrate far more on a non toxic emission, you couldn't make the sh1t up if you tried and not only that but for Years Vans have been allowed to get away with less strict emissions limits, unbelievable when you think of it and not only that, diesel was not necessary for road use in cars and vans.

The E.U is an utter Joke, fair play to the Brits for getting out !

It's impossible for car manufacturers to change their entire fleet to EV at this stage of the game because it's highly unlikely there will be a supply of batteries for all cars to be electric within that time frame.

They can however greatly lower emissions by having a system like the BMW i3 where the ICE is just a generator and only comes on when the battery runs low or at 75% charge where the driver can turn it on to save battery for a long motorway drive for instance and can then turn it off to run on battery again for slower roads and in town, it really is a terrific system and offers 100% peace of mind and is 100% independent of the public charging network should the driver choose. It's the only plug-in vehicle with the highest battery only range, especially in the U.S where they have the Rex in the 44 Kwh, it was removed in the E.U because BMW thought they were going to axe the i3 production and didn't want to pay for re-certification for the Rex on the 44 Kwh, their excuse was that " the majority of buyers buy the BEV version in the E.U".

The Government can try ban all they like, the Internal combustion engine will be in cars in some form or another for some time to come and they're delusional if they think every new car can be 100% electric by 2030, now whether this means they will ban the sale of all 100% ICE cars I do not know.

The Irish Government being the ones who lowered taxes on the highest pollution transportation fuel (Diesel ) + on diesel cars and there is still no sign of the 2018 all Island smoky coal ban as every town and village in Ireland chokes under clouds of toxic smog !

KCross

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fiat-chrysler-gigafactory-4-funding/

Thats a nice earner for Tesla on its balance sheet for the next few years.

Marlow

KCross wrote: »

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fiat-chrysler-gigafactory-4-funding/

Thats a nice earner for Tesla on its balance sheet for the next few years.

Basically FCA paying them to get even more ahead of the game.

/M

unkel

KCross wrote: »

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fiat-chrysler-gigafactory-4-funding/

Thats a nice earner for Tesla on its balance sheet for the next few years.

That's old news. FIAT / Chrysler has already paid Tesla a fortune to offset emissions. Tesla made over a billion dollars up to early 2019 in 3 years of emissions trades.

KCross

unkel wrote: »

That's old news. FIAT / Chrysler has already paid Tesla a fortune to offset emissions. Tesla made over a billion dollars up to early 2019 in 3 years of emissions trades.

In the EU? I dont think so.

Its relatively new news. It was well known that they had done a deal but its the first time I've seen an actual figure attributed to it for the EU and those fines havent even kicked in yet.... 2020 is the first year with fines, presumably due in 2021 once each OEM provides their respective sales figures.

unkel

I don't think Tesla's balance sheet cares where these emissions payouts are coming from

It was old news from May 3rd 2019. "Fiat Chrysler to spend €1.8bn on CO2 credits from Tesla", this was agreed nearly a year ago in February 2019

The company will purchase credits from Tesla to help it hit carbon dioxide goals and avoid large fines in the US and Europe, at an estimated cost of €1.8bn.

Linky

KCross

unkel wrote: »

I don't think Tesla's balance sheet cares where these emissions payouts are coming from

It was old news from May 3rd 2019. "Fiat Chrysler to spend €1.8bn on CO2 credits from Tesla", this was agreed nearly a year ago in February 2019



Linky

Thanks. I knew the deal was done last Feb/Mar but hadnt seen any dollar figures in the reports I read.

Its a nice wedge of money anyway. As some analysts have said it will go a long way to paying for Giga 4!

liamog

I heard they may lose out a little from the FCA/PSA merger. They reckon they can become compliant based on group emissions and may end the Tesla FCA grouping early.
FCA will likely move their European models onto the CMP/EMP2 platforms which are already available in EV form.

PSA can draw on their experience moving Opel over so quickly. That will cover them in the B, C, Compact SUVs (CMP) and C, D, SUVs (EMP2).
https://www.caradvice.com.au/816303/psa-fiat-chrysler-platform/

Shefwedfan

PSA group got screwed by buying out Opel.....

unkel

KCross wrote: »

Its a nice wedge of money anyway. As some analysts have said it will go a long way to paying for Giga 4!

TSLA bouncing off USD520 today. That means that Elon Musk will be paid a salary for the first time!

Not that he needs it, his share in the company has gone up in value by more than 10 billion dollars in the last 7-8 months

KCross

unkel wrote: »

TSLA bouncing off USD520 today. That means that Elon Musk will be paid a salary for the first time!

Doesnt he have to keep it there for 5 years or something??

KCross

The analyst from my OP has released updated data based on latest sales and emissions figures now available. Its more pessimistic now than it was before!

The two graphs in page 9 and 10 is all you need to look at if you dont want to read the entire report...
https://www2.paconsulting.com/rs/526-HZE-833/images/PA-CO2-Report-2019_2020.pdf

Emissions have gone up for everyone because people have been switching to petrol and larger, less efficient cars.

Ford, Fiat(FCA), VAG, Renault-Nissan all still predicted to pay in the billions in fines.... VW the worst at €4.5b because of their sales volume. Thats going to hurt their balance sheets!

Some, like FCA, would be predicated to be paying 50% of their earnings in fines (see page 10)! :eek:
You'd have to wonder about their future!

Toyota still at the top but now also possibly just missing their 2021 target! Thats a surprise.


I'd say there will either be further mergers or some of these companies wont exist anymore in 2025 as the fines will be astronomical at that point.

duffman3833

2019 was a year that opened peoples eyes more in relation to climate change so the 2018 figures mentioned in the report i think will be the peak of it and the figures for the next 2 years will certainly decrease

KCross

duffman3833 wrote: »

2019 was a year that opened peoples eyes more in relation to climate change so the 2018 figures mentioned in the report i think will be the peak of it and the figures for the next 2 years will certainly decrease

I'm skeptical of that.

2019 has seen a reduction in overall car sales in Europe but SUV's as a percentage has acutally increased.

So, if you look at the SIMI data for Ireland and compare 2019 to 2018 you will see we sold less cars in 2019 but the number of SUV's went up! Thats bad for emissions and matches what the report is saying is happening and seems to be continuing into 2019.

duffman3833

KCross wrote: »

I'm skeptical of that.

2019 has seen a reduction in overall car sales in Europe but SUV's as a percentage has acutally increased.

So, if you look at the SIMI data for Ireland and compare 2019 to 2018 you will see we sold less cars in 2019 but the number of SUV's went up! Thats bad for emissions and matches what the report is saying is happening and seems to be continuing into 2019.

I can agree with you there, as my mum is buying a new petrol Vitara but thats because of price of hybrids or electric. I think though a lot of people are looking into getting more hybrids and electric cars as there will be more to choose from on the market this year and will continue to become more available, especially used car market