Fingal By-election

cruizer101

Surprised there isn't a thread on this already.

So there is a by-election on the 29th on Nov to replace Clare Daly.
12 candidates putting themselves forward, a lot contesting for 1 seat, all the main parties are there and a fair number of independants too.

Glenn Brady - Independent
Tracey Carey - Social Democrats
Lorraine Clifford-Lee - Fianna Fáil
Ann Graves - Sinn Féin
Charlie Keddy - Independent
Cormac McKay - Independent
Dean Mulligan - Inds. 4 Change
Joe O'Brien - Green Party
Gemma O'Doherty - Independent
Peadar O’Kelly - Independent
James Reilly - Fine Gael
Duncan Smith - Labour Party


Currently elected there is a FF, FG, Lab and SF td.
So any predictions on who will be next.

Inquitus

I won't be voting for them but I think FF are most likely to take the bye election seat.

L1011

Inquitus wrote: »

I won't be voting for them but I think FF are most likely to take the bye election seat.

They certainly *were* but the continual drip drip of dodgy stuff Clifford Lee has said in the past - the most recent I saw was shaming people for shopping at Lidl, in 2011 during the depths of the recession - has probably cost them.

If the vote holds up regardless, she's in. Otherwise, it depends how much of Dalys vote transfers to Mulligan. If it isn't significant, it'll be Smith.

In the May elections, it was FF then Labour in first preference numbers in the areas that make up the constituency. FG weren't at the races in comparison. SF will be lucky to hold their existing seat in the General let alone get this one!

Inquitus

L1011 wrote: »

They certainly *were* but the continual drip drip of dodgy stuff Clifford Lee has said in the past - the most recent I saw was shaming people for shopping at Lidl, in 2011 during the depths of the recession - has probably cost them.

If the vote holds up regardless, she's in. Otherwise, it depends how much of Dalys vote transfers to Mulligan. If it isn't significant, it'll be Smith.

In the May elections, it was FF then Labour in first preference numbers in the areas that make up the constituency. FG weren't at the races in comparison. SF will be lucky to hold their existing seat in the General let alone get this one!

I concur, I think people will just vote along normal lines, the ones who bother with a Bye Election are probably more die hard voters, and those Clifford-Lee slip ups will be just noise, FF from Labour, like you say if Daly's vote held up well for Mulligan he is in with a good shout, but I can't see it despite all the weird looking Clare Daly guardian angel posters up all over the place.

Prediction

1. FF
2. LAB
3. Mulligan
4. FG (Reilly has no hope at the next General might as well give up after this one imo)

antimatterx

Even as a Fine Gael I will never vote for James Reily.

Fine Gael as plenty of young blood, yet they’re moving forward with this old timer.

selassie

Between Lab/FF/Mulligan for me. FG/SF haven't a hope, FG mainly because of their candidate choice.

A Law

Clifford Lee can't even spell by election properly, got a flyer in this morning.

cruizer101

Both by and bye are valid spellings. I think in Ireland bye is more common actually.
I think she stands a good chance of getting it. There is a lot in media about her derogatory language on twitter but I'm not sure people will care as much as media is making out.
I also can't find examples of exactly what she said so I can judge it for myself.

cbreeze

I'd only vote for people whom I would be happy invite into my home, and Ms Lee and the SF candidate would not be on the guest list.

While I might extend the cordialities to the FG candidate, the dog would go ballistic if he saw him coming up the path.

A Law

cruizer101 wrote: »

Both by and bye are valid spellings. I think in Ireland bye is more common actually.
I think she stands a good chance of getting it. There is a lot in media about her derogatory language on twitter but I'm not sure people will care as much as media is making out.
I also can't find examples of exactly what she said so I can judge it for myself.

Fair enough, every days a school day!

LeoB

There is an opportunity to send out a message to the main parties and if current talk is anything to go by FF/FG/Lab will not get elected.

That said I find Lorraine Clifford-Lee ok, met her a few times. James Reilly is a spoofer and if were only candidate I would not vote. People feel Labour have let working classes down and Duncan Smith could pay.

Joe O'Brian has a great chance to get in this time along with Dean Mulligan and Ann Graves. Sinn Fein are doing serious work on the ground.

Each party have leader who are not very inspiring and they also need to get rid of a lot of the older TDs and get young people who are more in touch with their communities.

For me Joe O;Brian or Clifford Lee for me.

The Nal

https://twitter.com/PaddySorosJr/status/1198382440026451968

Cloudio9

With a general election around the corner I expect the turnout will be very low which should help the more conservative parties.

Collie D

The Nal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaddySorosJr/status/1198382440026451968

What a ****ing headbanger.

pinkypinky

The Nal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaddySorosJr/status/1198382440026451968

Disgusting racist behaviour. They're a great shop. Diversity makes us better.

Loafing Oaf

cbreeze wrote: »

While I might extend the cordialities to the FG candidate, the dog would go ballistic if he saw him coming up the path.

If you say that to me again, I'll put your dog's head through the wall.

LeoB wrote: »

People feel Labour have let working classes down and Duncan Smith could pay.

Smith favourite with Paddy Power though. I'm surprised that any Labour candidate is apparently in serious contention for any of these seats because I thought the attitude you identify would still be prevalent among the working classes. Maybe the 'betrayals' of 2011 are starting to fade in people's minds and 'natural' Labour voters are drifting back to the party? Or is Smith just a strong local candidate?

L1011

Labour retained a TD in the 2016 election there, Smith got elected for the first time in 2014 when there weren't many other first time candidates getting in for the party elsewhere + huge amounts losing seats. There's a solid vote bloc from the unionised airport/airline staff living in the area also.

Cloudio9

L1011 wrote: »

There's a solid vote bloc from the unionised airport/airline staff living in the area also.

This. If you have a unionised job, the protest parties of the left aren't much use to you as you're part of the squeezed middle. You're better off with a left-leaning party in government. Protest parties make lots of noise but are unlikely to ever be in government.

Loafing Oaf

L1011 wrote: »

Labour retained a TD in the 2016 election there, Smith got elected for the first time in 2014 when there weren't many other first time candidates getting in for the party elsewhere

Plus he had to overcome the handicap of an unfortunate name for an Irish leftist:p

Cloudio9 wrote: »

This. If you have a unionised job, the protest parties of the left aren't much use to you as you're part of the squeezed middle. You're better off with a left-leaning party in government.

And the other main contender is a Green. All adds up...

subpar

Labour must have a very good chance , they will get a good percentage of transfers from the eliminated candidates which should secure the seat for Smith.

Inquitus

Current PP Odds



Personally I think Smith is too short and Reilly is way to short, the rest seem about right, apart from Mulligan who is 25/1, seems a bit long if Clare Daly's vote does indeed turn out for him.

Loafing Oaf

subpar wrote: »

Labour must have a very good chance , they will get a good percentage of transfers from the eliminated candidates which should secure the seat for Smith.

Could you not say the same for O'Brien? Conventional wisdom says Greens are very transfer-friendly...

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Could you not say the same for O'Brien? Conventional wisdom says Greens are very transfer-friendly...

O'Brien in to slight favourite with PP, so maybe the Greens will pip Labour for the 'squeezed middle' vote...

ShaneODub

The consituency name is slightly confusing - it's only in the last few days that I noticed that it's only a part of Fingal, not all of it.

plodder

ShaneODub wrote: »

The consituency name is slightly confusing - it's only in the last few days that I noticed that it's only a part of Fingal, not all of it.

At least it's better than Dublin Bay North & South, neither of which are actually in Dublin Bay.