EV depreciation

DrPhilG

So I've been considering taking the plunge on an e-Niro (if I could find one) but my head is wary of depreciation.

My 24kWh Leaf had a list price of about (I think) €28k new, I got it at a year old for £13.5k sterling.

My 33kWh i3 had a list price well north of €40k, I bought it at 2 years old for just over £20k.

But on the other hand, I sold my Leaf for €9.5k after 3.5 years, very reasonable depreciation. And it had probably APRECIATED in my final year of ownership. The i3 also has probably kept its value very well.

So what are the predictions going forward? Many thought that the second hand market would have some bargains given that the ID was initially rumoured to be so cheap but since that dream has fallen through, and the Model 3 is also pretty pricey, are we looking at another few years of high values?

The Peugeot seems a nice car, and the MG, but both are still relatively conservative for range compared to the e-Niro, Kona, L62 etc.

So would you dare buy a new 64kWh car now at €35-40k and what would you reckon it'll be worth in 3 years time?

Water John

Would a figure of €4K/yr be near the mark? Since we own a Kona, I too am interested.
Three year old Leaf 30 was worth around €20K
Would €26K be low for a Kona?

Lumen

Your Leaf lost two thirds of its value in four and a half years, you just happened not to own it for the first year of that.

I always assume 20% depreciation compounded over the first few years.

krissovo

You are all over the place with your baseline assumptions using pre-grant list prices and modeling against UK import costs. If that model has worked for you and you are comfortable why not stick with that?

It's a very rare club that anyone has made money from buying a new car so expect the worst and hope for the best. Plan on the car depreciating 50% after 3 years then anything less is a bonus.

The e-niro has a lot of positives that I would expect to reduce the depreciation, firstly the range so you widen the market for the car off the bat, the size is good (much better than Kona) so families are interested and lastly it performs quite well so all in it's a good package and probably the biggest catchment for a EV in the used market.

slave1

I agree, setting battery size aside for a minute the Niro is likely the biggest (non Tesla etc.) car out there with a big battery and that will give it a premium over the likes of the Kona which would be its nearest "rival", I was in a Kona at the weekend and it's tiny inside, leg room is very restricted front and back and it is considerably smaller in every way compared to the internal Nissan Leaf even, if in 3 years time folk are comparing Niro to Kona the Niro will be miles ahead in value

DrPhilG

krissovo wrote: »

You are all over the place with your baseline assumptions using pre-grant list prices and modeling against UK import costs. If that model has worked for you and you are comfortable why not stick with that?

Eh?

I'm not making any pre-grant assumption and I only mentioned my previous experience importing as an example of how much depreciation those cars had already experienced in their first year(s).

The Leaf was around £24k in the UK new and after grants, I bought at 12 months old for £13k.

The i3 was over £37k after grants in the UK and I bought 2 years old for £20k.

My question now is about EV depreciation levels overall, so EV depreciation levels in the past are relevant to the discussion.

As for why I don't stick to the same model, that's because we are probably 2 years at least away from a good choice and availability of second hand 60kWh+ cars here. I have an out of warranty BMW so I'm not waiting 2 years.

If I bought a second hand e-Niro now I'd probably pay more than the list price.

Lumen

To answer your question directly: yes I would buy an e-Niro now, based on both my own Kia ownership experiences, hiring the very similar Kona, and the positive third party reviews, and I'd expect to lose 20k (on paper) on it over 3 years, but I'd expect to keep it for at least 5 years, so I'd be expecting depreciation of a little under €500/mo over the period of ownership.

Since I'm losing around €250/mo on my current ICE car and would expect fuel savings of around €300/mo switching to electric, this would represent an overall saving vs my own status quo.

DrPhilG

Yeah at that rate I'd say I'm only losing about €350 a month on the i3 so I do wonder if I should hold off another year. By then maybe there will be a few second hand e-Niros filtering through as people buy Model 3s and VW IDs.

I didn't think the e-Niro would drop by 50% in 3 years though given that it would barely depreciate at all in year 1.

liamog

DrPhilG wrote: »

Yeah at that rate I'd say I'm only losing about €350 a month on the i3 so I do wonder if I should hold off another year. By then maybe there will be a few second hand e-Niros filtering through as people buy Model 3s and VW IDs.

I didn't think the e-Niro would drop by 50% in 3 years though given that it would barely depreciate at all in year 1.

E-niro is out around 6 months, I can't see many first buyers dropping them for the ID.3 or Model 3. The timelines are so tight I suspect most will have just waited with their current vehicle.

Now the ID.4 release and Model Y, which I expect will hit us summer 2021 will probably release a few Niro's to the market.

Lumen

DrPhilG wrote: »

I didn't think the e-Niro would drop by 50% in 3 years though given that it would barely depreciate at all in year 1.

The biggest risk to used pricing is EVs achieving cost-parity before incentives with ICE cars. We are arguably already at that stage, and the premiums for are purely a consequence of novelty, lack of supply and competition.

An equivalent spec ICE Kona is, what, 26k?

So it may be that in three years time you can buy an electric Kona for well under 30k.

What would that do to used car prices? I can't see a three year old car being worth more than 20k in those circumstances.

DrPhilG

That's true I suppose.

The i3 second hand prices took a drop when the new model was reduced.

On the other hand if I bought a new e-Niro I'd fully intend to hold onto it for 5 years. I only kept the Leaf 3 years and the i3 a year so far.