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November 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-10-2019 8:16pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS: Predict the lowest daily MAX at any of the 25 regular stations, the location and date. The value will be worth 6 points, the location and date can score two each for the quarter of the field closest, and one for anyone else guessing the right province and a date within 5. Then you can also earn one or two superbonus points, 6+2+2 will earn 2, and anything that adds to 9 will add one.

    As always, the deadline will be 0300h Friday 1st November and late penalties will apply after that.

    ... Good luck ...


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7__5.9c__15.2c__-6.8c__135__110__-0.3c__Casement__28th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,859 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002__6.6__15.1__-4.5__115__100__4.6__Knock__27th


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3__6.9__16.0__-3.9__105__90__6.5__Mount Dillon__22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal__7.0__14.9__-3.0__101__90__4.0__Mullingar__23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29__7.2__15.5__-4.0__110__100__5.0__Mullingar__19rd


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,109 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH__7.0__16.3__-4.1__115__105__1.2__Ballyhaise__23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry__5.0__14.7__-7.1__215__100__0.3__Knock _28th

    Lets go all out cold.

    Might end up on zero points but its more fun


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry wrote: »
    Pauldry__5.0__14.7__-7.1__215__100__0.3__Knock _28th

    Lets go all out cold.

    Might end up on zero points but its more fun

    Lol i see Blizzard is with me. Fun times


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts__7.6c__15.5c__-3.8c__115__93__4.3c__Casement__30th


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen__6.5__14.2__-5.5__ 105__110__2.3__Knock__29th

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire__7.1__14.0__-3.0__101__95__4.0__Oak Park__25th


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.0 ___ 15.2 ___ -4.5 ___ 110 ___ 90 ___ 5° ___ Mullingar ___ 28th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ - 4.2 _ 101 _ 96 _ 4.2 Ballyhaise 28th


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 7.2 ____ 18.0 ____ -5.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 5.0 Roches point 30th november


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    MrSkinner._____6.9_____15.4_____-3.9____89____119___2.9 Knock 25th


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___7
    .2_14.1_-4.2_110_80 Mullingar 23rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn._____6.8_____14.4_____-4.9____125____95___2.4 Knock 14th


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium ________ 6.4 _ 15.5 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.9 Ballyhaise 30th

    Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 4.0 (loc'n and date points to be based on climatology)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _____________ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -5.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 5.3 knock 30th

    LAte again....:o


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____________ 6.7 _ 16.3 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 099 __ 1.3 Mount Dillon 26th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public__6.5__15.9__-4.6__111__89__0.9__Mullingar__10th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa__7.0__16.0__-4.9__89__97__4.1__Mullingar__27th

    Sorry for the lateness!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels---- 6.8__15.6__-3.9__104__92__6.4__Mount Dillon__22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for November 2019


    FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Lowest max (+ loc'n date)


    mickger844posts _______ 7.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.8 _ 115 _ 093 __ 4.3 Casement 30th

    Tae laidir _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 096 __ 4.2 Ballyhaise 28th

    john mac ___ (-2) ______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -5.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 5.3 knock 30th

    Rikand _______________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 5.0 Roches Point 30th


    ___ Normal ___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 4.0 (loc'n and date points to be based on climatology)


    dasa29 _______________7.2 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 Mullingar 19th

    Adam240610 __________ 7.2 _ 14.1 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 080 __ 4.6 Mullingar 23rd

    Rameire ______________ 7.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 095 __ 4.0 Oak Park 25th

    DOCARCH _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -4.1 _ 115 _ 105 __ 1.2 Ballyhaise 23rd

    Dacogawa ____ (-3) _____7.0 _ 16.0 _ -4.9 _ 089 _ 097 __ 4.1 Mullingar 27th

    Kindred Spirit __________ 7.0 _ 15.2 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 090 __ 5.0 Mullingar 28th

    Bsal __________________7.0 _ 14.9 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 090 __ 4.0 Mullingar 23rd


    ___ Con Sensus ________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 4.1 Mullingar 26th


    Sunflower3 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 6.5 Mount Dillon 22nd

    MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.4 _ -3.9 _ 089 _ 119 __ 2.9 Knock 25th

    200motels _____ (-8) ____6.8 _ 15.6 _ -3.9 _ 104 _ 092 __ 6.4 Mount Dillon 22nd

    Jpmarn _______________ 6.8 _ 14.4 _ -4.9 _ 125 _ 095 __ 2.4 Knock 14th

    waterways _____ (-2) ___ 6.7 _ 16.3 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 099 __ 1.3 Mount Dillon 26th

    Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 15.1 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 100 __ 4.6 Knock 27th

    Joe Public ______ (-2) ___6.5 _ 15.9 _ -4.6 _ 111 _ 089 __ 0.9 Mullingar 10th

    sryanbruen ____________6.5 _ 14.2 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 110 __ 2.3 Knock 29th

    M.T. Cranium __________ 6.4 _ 15.5 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.9 Ballyhaise 30th

    BLIZZARD7 ____________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -6.8 _ 135 _ 110 _ - 0.3 Casement 28th

    Pauldry _______________ 5.0 _ 14.7 _ -7.1 _ 215 _ 100 __ 0.3 Knock 28th

    ==================================================

    Location of low max:

    6 for Mullingar_ (con sensus scores 2 if correct)
    6 for Knock ___(con sensus scores 2 if correct)
    3 for Ballyhaise (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
    3 for Mountdillon (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
    2 for Casement (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
    1 for Roches Point and Oak Park (cs scores zero for these or any others)

    Dates selected

    before 20th _ 3 (CS and normal score zero if correct)
    21st to 23rd_ 5 (CS and normal score 1 if correct)
    24th to 26th_ 3 (CS scores zero, normal scores 1 if correct)
    27th to 30th_11 (CS and normal score two if correct)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    14.9 at Moorepark on the 1st opens up the MAX file.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Thatl be as high as it gets this month


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT was 7.7 C which is 0.8 below normal.

    MAX of 14.9 C noted, MIN around zero so far.

    PRC was 183% of normal, quite wet in Leinster (Casement 372%).

    SUN was taking a rest from October, 40% of normal (240/600) with Dublin only 13%.

    As for the bonus, looks like 6.7 (Gurteen 7th) may be the current mark, Knock has had no hour above 6 yet today though. I would imagine these will be overtaken in any case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    For our bonus question Malin Head was only 5.8°c at best on the 9th. MIN should be around -3° from this morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    That seems correct, 5.8 at Malin Head on 9th and also at Knock on 10th for low max so far.

    And -3.4 at Markree for our MIN going forward.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Bonus question only 4.1°C high at Knock Airport on the 13th.


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