November 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: Predict the lowest daily MAX at any of the 25 regular stations, the location and date. The value will be worth 6 points, the location and date can score two each for the quarter of the field closest, and one for anyone else guessing the right province and a date within 5. Then you can also earn one or two superbonus points, 6+2+2 will earn 2, and anything that adds to 9 will add one.

As always, the deadline will be 0300h Friday 1st November and late penalties will apply after that.

... Good luck ...

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7__5.9c__15.2c__-6.8c__135__110__-0.3c__Casement__28th

Artane2002

Artane2002__6.6__15.1__-4.5__115__100__4.6__Knock__27th

sunflower3

Sunflower3__6.9__16.0__-3.9__105__90__6.5__Mount Dillon__22nd

Bsal

Bsal__7.0__14.9__-3.0__101__90__4.0__Mullingar__23rd

dasa29

dasa29__7.2__15.5__-4.0__110__100__5.0__Mullingar__19rd

DOCARCH

DOCARCH__7.0__16.3__-4.1__115__105__1.2__Ballyhaise__23rd

pauldry

Pauldry__5.0__14.7__-7.1__215__100__0.3__Knock _28th

Lets go all out cold.

Might end up on zero points but its more fun

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

Pauldry__5.0__14.7__-7.1__215__100__0.3__Knock _28th

Lets go all out cold.

Might end up on zero points but its more fun

Lol i see Blizzard is with me. Fun times

mickger844posts

mickger844posts__7.6c__15.5c__-3.8c__115__93__4.3c__Casement__30th

sryanbruen

sryanbruen__6.5__14.2__-5.5__ 105__110__2.3__Knock__29th

rameire

Rameire__7.1__14.0__-3.0__101__95__4.0__Oak Park__25th

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.0 ___ 15.2 ___ -4.5 ___ 110 ___ 90 ___ 5° ___ Mullingar ___ 28th.

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ - 4.2 _ 101 _ 96 _ 4.2 Ballyhaise 28th

Rikand

Rikand ____ 7.2 ____ 18.0 ____ -5.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 5.0 Roches point 30th november

mrskinner

MrSkinner._____6.9_____15.4_____-3.9____89____119___2.9 Knock 25th

adam240610

Adam240610___7
.2_14.1_-4.2_110_80 Mullingar 23rd

Jpmarn

Jpmarn._____6.8_____14.4_____-4.9____125____95___2.4 Knock 14th

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.4 _ 15.5 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.9 Ballyhaise 30th

Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 4.0 (loc'n and date points to be based on climatology)

John mac

john mac _____________ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -5.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 5.3 knock 30th

LAte again....:o

waterways

waterways _____________ 6.7 _ 16.3 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 099 __ 1.3 Mount Dillon 26th

Joe Public

Joe Public__6.5__15.9__-4.6__111__89__0.9__Mullingar__10th

dacogawa

Dacogawa__7.0__16.0__-4.9__89__97__4.1__Mullingar__27th

Sorry for the lateness!

200motels

200motels---- 6.8__15.6__-3.9__104__92__6.4__Mount Dillon__22nd

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for November 2019


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Lowest max (+ loc'n date)


mickger844posts _______ 7.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.8 _ 115 _ 093 __ 4.3 Casement 30th

Tae laidir _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 096 __ 4.2 Ballyhaise 28th

john mac ___ (-2) ______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -5.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 5.3 knock 30th

Rikand _______________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 5.0 Roches Point 30th


___ Normal ___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 4.0 (loc'n and date points to be based on climatology)


dasa29 _______________7.2 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 Mullingar 19th

Adam240610 __________ 7.2 _ 14.1 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 080 __ 4.6 Mullingar 23rd

Rameire ______________ 7.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 095 __ 4.0 Oak Park 25th

DOCARCH _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -4.1 _ 115 _ 105 __ 1.2 Ballyhaise 23rd

Dacogawa ____ (-3) _____7.0 _ 16.0 _ -4.9 _ 089 _ 097 __ 4.1 Mullingar 27th

Kindred Spirit __________ 7.0 _ 15.2 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 090 __ 5.0 Mullingar 28th

Bsal __________________7.0 _ 14.9 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 090 __ 4.0 Mullingar 23rd


___ Con Sensus ________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 4.1 Mullingar 26th


Sunflower3 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 6.5 Mount Dillon 22nd

MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.4 _ -3.9 _ 089 _ 119 __ 2.9 Knock 25th

200motels _____ (-8) ____6.8 _ 15.6 _ -3.9 _ 104 _ 092 __ 6.4 Mount Dillon 22nd

Jpmarn _______________ 6.8 _ 14.4 _ -4.9 _ 125 _ 095 __ 2.4 Knock 14th

waterways _____ (-2) ___ 6.7 _ 16.3 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 099 __ 1.3 Mount Dillon 26th

Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 15.1 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 100 __ 4.6 Knock 27th

Joe Public ______ (-2) ___6.5 _ 15.9 _ -4.6 _ 111 _ 089 __ 0.9 Mullingar 10th

sryanbruen ____________6.5 _ 14.2 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 110 __ 2.3 Knock 29th

M.T. Cranium __________ 6.4 _ 15.5 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.9 Ballyhaise 30th

BLIZZARD7 ____________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -6.8 _ 135 _ 110 _ - 0.3 Casement 28th

Pauldry _______________ 5.0 _ 14.7 _ -7.1 _ 215 _ 100 __ 0.3 Knock 28th

==================================================

Location of low max:

6 for Mullingar_ (con sensus scores 2 if correct)
6 for Knock ___(con sensus scores 2 if correct)
3 for Ballyhaise (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
3 for Mountdillon (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
2 for Casement (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
1 for Roches Point and Oak Park (cs scores zero for these or any others)

Dates selected

before 20th _ 3 (CS and normal score zero if correct)
21st to 23rd_ 5 (CS and normal score 1 if correct)
24th to 26th_ 3 (CS scores zero, normal scores 1 if correct)
27th to 30th_11 (CS and normal score two if correct)

M.T. Cranium

14.9 at Moorepark on the 1st opens up the MAX file.

pauldry

Thatl be as high as it gets this month

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was 7.7 C which is 0.8 below normal.

MAX of 14.9 C noted, MIN around zero so far.

PRC was 183% of normal, quite wet in Leinster (Casement 372%).

SUN was taking a rest from October, 40% of normal (240/600) with Dublin only 13%.

As for the bonus, looks like 6.7 (Gurteen 7th) may be the current mark, Knock has had no hour above 6 yet today though. I would imagine these will be overtaken in any case.

Jpmarn

For our bonus question Malin Head was only 5.8°c at best on the 9th. MIN should be around -3° from this morning.

M.T. Cranium

That seems correct, 5.8 at Malin Head on 9th and also at Knock on 10th for low max so far.

And -3.4 at Markree for our MIN going forward.

Jpmarn

Bonus question only 4.1°C high at Knock Airport on the 13th.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 6.3 with the second week average of 4.9 coming in 2.8 below normal and in fact below normal for even the coldest week of the winter (around end of January this might be 5.0).

MAX of 14.9 and MIN --3.4 to date.

PRC remains high at 164% with this past week at 145%.

SUN has recovered to 108% with the past week quite sunny at 168% (1010/600).

So far the qualifier for low max is Knock 4.1 C on 13th.

pauldry

Ballyhaise seems to be hovering around 3c today.

New min max?

M.T. Cranium

Yes, new low max but it's at Mountdillon (3.3) which edged out Ballyhaise (3.4) by 0.1 -- will check back as these figures were just posted minutes ago. Not quite cold enough for a new min though.

M.T. Cranium

New min of -5.5 at Mountdillon yesterday. Despite some very cold overnight lows, no new low maximum and current charts suggest we have probably seen our lowest temperatures of the month. I will edit in what that means about bonus scoring after checking a few things.

M.T. Cranium

Here's an odd factoid, not one of us chose a value between 3.0 and 3.9 for low max. The bonus rules stated that there would be 6 points for the value, 2 for date and 2 for location.

The value scores will be in groups of three or four from six to one points, I have divided them somewhat by similar error groupings.

If the value of 3.3 at Mountdillon on 13th holds up, scoring would be ...

6 pts _ MrSkinner 2.9, Rameire 4.0, Bsal 4.0, Dacogawa 4.1 (also Normal and Con Sensus)

5 pts _ Tae laidir 4.2, Jpmarn 2.4, Mickger844posts 4.3, sryanbruen 2.3

4 pts _ Adam240610 and Artane2002 (both 4.6)

3 pts _ MTC 1.9, Kindred Spirit, dasa29 and rikand (each 5.0)

2 pts _ John mac 5.3, waterways 1.3, DOCARCH 1.2

1 pt __ Joe Public 0.9, Pauldry 0.3, 200motels 6.4, sunflower3 6.5, BLIZZARD7 (-0.3)

As to the date, the quarter of the field closest would be the first six dates, and ties

JPmarn 14th, Joe Public 10th, dasa29 19th, sunflower3 and 200motels (both 22nd) and Adam240610, Bsal and DOCARCH all with 23rd.

Rules said anyone else within five days would get one point, nobody was, so rest of us get zero for date (if this holds up).

As for location, three had Mountdillon (sunflower3, 200motels, waterways). So they get two points. The rules said that the quarter of the field closest to the right location would get two points, otherwise those in the right province would get one. On the map I have convinced myself that Mullingar is a bit closer to Mountdillon than either Ballyhaise, or Knock. However, of those, only Knock is in Connacht. So the six who selected Mullingar will be lucky to receive two points and those with Knock get one point.

That means the following also get two points for location: Dacogawa, Adam240610, Bsal, Joe Public, Kindred Spirit, dasa29.

And these get one point for Knock -- John mac, MrSkinner, Jpmarn, sryanbruen, pauldry and Artane2002.

The grand totals would be

Bsal 10 (plus 2 superbonus points) 12

JPmarn, Dacogawa, Adam240610 _ 8

MrSkinner, dasa29 (Normal, CS) __ 7

Rameire, sryanbruen ___________ 6

Tae laidir, Artane2002, Joe Public,
__ mickger844posts KindredSpirit
__ Sunflower3, 200motels _______ 5

DOCARCH, waterways __________ 4

MTC, Rikand, John mac _________ 3

Pauldry ______________________2

BLIZZARD7 ___________________1

M.T. Cranium

The bigger picture on cold scoring can be seen here, since we have very likely reached the MIN and that's worth 20 points compared to the ten being divided up for the bonus. The effects of the cold first half may eventually be washed out of the IMT scoring as it looks to me like we could get back close to 7 after being very close to 6.0 at the present time. (had a look at 12z GFS, would say IMT 6.7 a likely outcome, and very little chance of either MIN or bonus low max being changed by anything on those charts, although max itself could be set as well, not quite a done deal there if one of these strong lows manages to produce an organized warm sector).

But here's a look at the scoring from the previous post combined with scoring for MIN to show the overall scoring to be incorporated into your overall November scores ... I have ordered these by total cold scoring, with total temperature scoring based on IMT being 6.7 and MAX remaining 14.9. Ties in the cold scoring are broken by total temperature scoring. Your predicted max is shown also so you can estimate any change to this total if you perceive we could go higher than 14.9. The IMT is probably within 3 points of what will actually be the case, it's certainly going up rather than down from where we are now.

FORECASTER _________ Min_bonus _ Total "cold scoring"

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (total temp score in brackets)


sryanbruen ___________ 20 _ 06 ____26 ___ (23 IMT, 13 MAX for 14.2) (62 total)

M.T. Cranium __________20 _ 03 ____23 ___ (22 IMT, 14 MAX for 15.5) (59 total)

Rikand _______________20 _ 03 ____23 ___ (20 IMT, 00 MAX for 18.0) (43 total)

Jpmarn ______________ 14 _ 08 ____22 ___ (24 IMT, 15 MAX for 14.4) (61 total)

Dacogawa ____ (-3) ____14 _ 08 ____22 ___ (23 IMT, 09 MAX for 16.0) (54 total)

john mac ___ (-2) ______19 _ 03 ____22 ___ (18 IMT, 00 MAX for 17.9) (40 total)

waterways _____ (-2) __ 15 _ 04 ____19 ___ (25 IMT, 06 MAX for 16.5) (50 total)


___ Con Sensus _______ 10 _ 07 ____17 ___ (22 IMT, 14 MAX for 15.5) (53 total)


Joe Public ______ (-2) __ 11 _ 05 ____16 ___ (23 IMT, 10 MAX for 15.9) (49 total)

Artane2002 ___________10 _ 05 ____15 ___ (24 IMT, 18 MAX for 15.1) (57 total)

Kindred Spirit _________ 10 _ 05 ____15 ___ (22 IMT, 17 MAX for 15.2) (54 total)

Adam240610 __________07 _ 08 ____15 ___ (20 IMT, 12 MAX for 14.1) (47 total)

Bsal _________________ 00 _ 12 ____12 ___ (22 IMT, 20 MAX for 14.9) (54 total)

Tae laidir _____________ 07 _ 05 ____12 ___ (16 IMT, 19 MAX for 14.8) (47 total)

dasa29 _______________05 _ 07 ____12 ___ (20 IMT, 14 MAX for 15.5) (46 total)


___ Normal ___________05 _ 07 ____12 ___ (20 IMT, 00 MAX for 17.0) (32 total)


MrSkinner ____________ 04 _ 07 ____11 ___ (23 IMT, 15 MAX for 15.4) (49 total)

DOCARCH ____________ 06 _ 04 ____10 ___ (22 IMT, 06 MAX for 16.3) (38 total)

200motels _____ (-8) ___04 _ 05 ____ 9 ___ (24 IMT, 13 MAX for 15.6) (46 total)

Sunflower3 ___________ 04 _ 05 ____ 9 ___ (23 IMT, 09 MAX for 16.0) (41 total)

mickger844posts _______03 _ 05 ____ 8 ___ (16 IMT, 14 MAX for 15.5) (38 total)

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 07 _ 01 ____ 8 ___ (17 IMT, 17 MAX for 15.2) (42 total)

Rameire ______________00 _ 06 ____ 6 ___ (21 IMT, 11 MAX for 14.0) (38 total)

Pauldry _______________04 _ 02 ____ 6 ___ (08 IMT, 18 MAX for 14.7) (32 total)

=======================================

(the full forecasts below)

FORECASTER __________ IMT_ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus



mickger844posts _______ 7.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.8 _ 115 _ 093 __ 4.3 Casement 30th

Tae laidir _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 096 __ 4.2 Ballyhaise 28th

john mac ___ (-2) ______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -5.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 5.3 knock 30th

Rikand _______________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 5.0 Roches Point 30th


___ Normal ___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 4.0 (loc'n and date points to be based on climatology)


dasa29 _______________7.2 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 Mullingar 19th

Adam240610 __________ 7.2 _ 14.1 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 080 __ 4.6 Mullingar 23rd

Rameire ______________ 7.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 095 __ 4.0 Oak Park 25th

DOCARCH _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -4.1 _ 115 _ 105 __ 1.2 Ballyhaise 23rd

Dacogawa ____ (-3) _____7.0 _ 16.0 _ -4.9 _ 089 _ 097 __ 4.1 Mullingar 27th

Kindred Spirit __________ 7.0 _ 15.2 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 090 __ 5.0 Mullingar 28th

Bsal __________________7.0 _ 14.9 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 090 __ 4.0 Mullingar 23rd


___ Con Sensus ________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 4.1 Mullingar 26th


Sunflower3 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 6.5 Mount Dillon 22nd

MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.4 _ -3.9 _ 089 _ 119 __ 2.9 Knock 25th

200motels _____ (-8) ____6.8 _ 15.6 _ -3.9 _ 104 _ 092 __ 6.4 Mount Dillon 22nd

Jpmarn _______________ 6.8 _ 14.4 _ -4.9 _ 125 _ 095 __ 2.4 Knock 14th

waterways _____ (-2) ___ 6.7 _ 16.3 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 099 __ 1.3 Mount Dillon 26th

Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 15.1 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 100 __ 4.6 Knock 27th

Joe Public ______ (-2) ___6.5 _ 15.9 _ -4.6 _ 111 _ 089 __ 0.9 Mullingar 10th

sryanbruen ____________6.5 _ 14.2 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 110 __ 2.3 Knock 29th

M.T. Cranium __________ 6.4 _ 15.5 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.9 Ballyhaise 30th

BLIZZARD7 ____________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -6.8 _ 135 _ 110 _ - 0.3 Casement 28th

Pauldry _______________ 5.0 _ 14.7 _ -7.1 _ 215 _ 100 __ 0.3 Knock 28th

==================================================

Location of low max:

6 for Mullingar_ (con sensus scores 2 if correct)
6 for Knock ___(con sensus scores 2 if correct)
3 for Ballyhaise (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
3 for Mountdillon (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
2 for Casement (con sensus scores 1 if correct)
1 for Roches Point and Oak Park (cs scores zero for these or any others)

Dates selected

before 20th _ 3 (CS and normal score zero if correct)
21st to 23rd_ 5 (CS and normal score 1 if correct)
24th to 26th_ 3 (CS scores zero, normal scores 1 if correct)
27th to 30th_11 (CS and normal score two if correct)

M.T. Cranium

Here's the "after three weeks" report which has to be somewhat approximate because Shannon has seen an interruption in their reporting which must have come in the past two days as I did check the IMT on the 20th (for 19 days) and it was up to date then. Using the same differential from Oak Park that I remember seeing then, here's the general estimate of where things are at now ...

IMT on 5.8 C with this past week around 4.6 which would be 2.3 below normal. This somewhat milder spell is not having a very strong effect on the IMT, and my earlier estimate in the mega-temp post above may be a bit high, to get to 6.7 now would require an average of 8.8, the coming days look closer to 7 which might suggest the outcome would be 6.2 C.

MAX and MIN remain 14.9 and -5.5 and look to be under minimal threats, would be surprised if we get outside the range of 13 to -3 rest of the way but with any clear skies anything's possible.

PRC again estimating Shannon, now down to 130% with this past week around 70% of normal. The south coast remained wet but other stations reported much lower values this past week. The coming nine days appear close to average for the grid, probably with the same regional differences, and the month may end up around 120%.

SUN presents even more difficulty with only three of the six stations showing data. They are all a bit above normal. I can only say that the previous value of 108% has most likely remained about the same but will try to update this in coming days. Here again, at this time of year, so little sunshine required to keep up a percentage that I would expect the outcome to be at least normal.

Then after all I said and did about the low max, can't really be that sure some location won't squeak in under 3.3 later so that file probably isn't fully closed either.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 6.3 C, the missing data from last report were since added and the estimate given then appears correct now. The fourth week average was 7.8, 1.1 above normal.

MAX remains 14.9 and appears likely to finish on that value.

MIN remains -5.5 and has some chance of slipping lower by Saturday morning or midnight, seems to have escaped change this morning.

PRC is now around 130% of normal with this past week 117%, Dublin area stations quite wet compared to most others. This cross-checks with the monthly rainfall which was looking like it had guaranteed 125% of monthly averages at the eleven stations. It indicates that my estimate from week three might have been somewhat low for the missing Shannon data. So 125% is about where we are likely to finish with today and tomorrow essentially dry.

SUN this past week was in short supply and the average was only 27% of normal (161/600). If the earlier estimate was correct, then this would drop the month to a current value of 87%. Today and tomorrow will push that back closer to 90% perhaps. However, my third week estimate was really a shot in the dark and we could now be anywhere between 80 and 100 per cent, after checking the three stations that were missing in week three on daily data, I am thinking perhaps 95% might be the best estimate for now and near 100% by end of the month, the three missing stations I thought were keeping up to the previous mark all had a bit more sunshine than I had estimated in week three and we were probably closer to 120% then, which would make it 96% now.

As for the bonus question, it all comes down to whether our cold spots can stay below 3.3 tomorrow, as today's max temps at all suspect locations have reached at least 5 C. I think it's a 50-50 proposition for Ballyhaise or Markree to change that outcome. If there's a tie (with the previous value) then I will score the contest from best option in each case. If there was a differential of 0.1 or something crazy like that, I might go bimodal 2:1 to be fair.

M.T. Cranium

The final IMT was 6.2 and the PRC was 122% of normal. Most stations were fairly close to normal, Casement and Johnstown Castle inflated the average with Cork and Oak Park a bit higher also. Malin Head actually below their normal value.

MAX of 14.9 and MIN of -5.5 were never threatened.

SUN was a bit of a no-show yesterday which leads me to speculate the finishing value is around 90% but I will wait for the MS to have much confidence in that guesstimate with the missing data situation.

Also it turned out that the bonus question scoring discussion was confirmed as no station remained under 5.0 yesterday for a max. Knock at 5.8 was the coldest reading.

I may post some provisional scoring with that SUN value the most likely to create any later amendments to it. But that scoring won't happen for a while as I am into that day of various contest updates mingled with random sleeping episodes.

That partial scoring I did earlier will be five points too high for anyone with an IMT of 6.7 or higher. For the two lowest IMT forecasts, you can add five points. I can add one, and folks at 6.5 can subtract one, while those at 6.6 should subtract three points (as I calculated it all from an estimate of 6.7 rather than 6.2). We had a bit of a gap in our IMT forecasts with myself at 6.4 a bit closer than BLIZZARD7 at 5.9.

Looks to me like overall high score may be going to JPmarn if the SUN is not higher than 100%. I might be looking at second and sryanbruen and/or Artane2002 could be third. Just estimates from that partial scoring and a quick look at PRC and SUN forecasts.

M.T. Cranium

SUN confirmed at 89% of normal from MS data. Normal is 2.05 hours a day over the six stations, reports averaged 1.82. No other changes to reported values as everything confirmed by MS.

Will be working on the scoring tables next few hours, check back.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for November, 2019


FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ___ TOTALS



Jpmarn _______________19 _ 15 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 8 _______ 79

M.T. Cranium __________23 _ 14 _ 20 _ 14 _ 04 ___ 3 _______ 78

sryanbruen ____________22 _ 13 _ 20 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 6 _______ 76

Artane2002 ___________ 21 _ 18 _ 10 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 5 _______ 75

Kindred Spirit __________17 _ 17 _ 10 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 5 _______ 70

Bsal _________________ 17 _ 20 _ 00 _ 08 _ 10 ___12 _______ 67

Joe Public ______ (-2) __ 22 _ 10 _ 11 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 5 __69-2 = 67


___ Con Sensus _______ 17 _ 14 _ 10 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 7 _______ 67


waterways _____ (-2) ___20 _ 06 _ 15 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 4 __67-2 = 65

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 22 _ 17 _ 07 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 1 _______ 64

Adam240610 __________15 _ 12 _ 07 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 8 _______ 61

dasa29 _______________15 _ 14 _ 05 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 7 _______ 60

Tae laidir _____________ 11 _ 19 _ 07 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 5 _______ 60

Dacogawa ____ (-3) ____ 17 _ 09 _ 14 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 8 __60-3= 57

mickger844posts _______ 11 _ 14 _ 03 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 5 _______ 55

Sunflower3 ____________18 _ 09 _ 04 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 5 _______ 55

DOCARCH _____________17 _ 06 _ 06 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 4 _______ 53

MrSkinner _____________18 _ 15 _ 04 _ 04 _ 04 ___ 7 _______ 52

200motels _____ (-8) ___ 19 _ 13 _ 04 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 5 __59-8 = 51

john mac ___ (-2) ______ 13 _ 00 _ 19 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 3 __ 53-2= 51

Rameire ______________ 16 _ 11 _ 00 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 6 _______ 50

Rikand _______________ 15 _ 00 _ 20 _ 04 _ 04 ___ 3 _______ 46

Pauldry _______________13 _ 18 _ 04 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 2 _______ 45


___ Normal ___________ 15 _ 00 _ 05 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 7 _______ 43



==================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT_ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Bonus

mickger844posts _______ 7.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.8 _ 115 _ 093 __ 4.3 Casement 30th
Tae laidir _____________ 7.6 _ 14.8 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 096 __ 4.2 Ballyhaise 28th
john mac ___ (-2) ______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -5.4 _ 110 _ 102 __ 5.3 knock 30th
Rikand _______________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 5.0 Roches Point 30th

___ Normal ___________ 7.2 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 4.0 (loc'n and date points to be based on climatology)

dasa29 _______________7.2 _ 15.5 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 5.0 Mullingar 19th
Adam240610 __________ 7.2 _ 14.1 _ -4.2 _ 110 _ 080 __ 4.6 Mullingar 23rd
Rameire ______________ 7.1 _ 14.0 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 095 __ 4.0 Oak Park 25th
DOCARCH _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -4.1 _ 115 _ 105 __ 1.2 Ballyhaise 23rd
Dacogawa ____ (-3) _____7.0 _ 16.0 _ -4.9 _ 089 _ 097 __ 4.1 Mullingar 27th
Kindred Spirit __________ 7.0 _ 15.2 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 090 __ 5.0 Mullingar 28th
Bsal __________________7.0 _ 14.9 _ -3.0 _ 101 _ 090 __ 4.0 Mullingar 23rd

___ Con Sensus ________ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 098 __ 4.1 Mullingar 26th

Sunflower3 ____________ 6.9 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 090 __ 6.5 Mount Dillon 22nd
MrSkinner _____________ 6.9 _ 15.4 _ -3.9 _ 089 _ 119 __ 2.9 Knock 25th
200motels _____ (-8) ____6.8 _ 15.6 _ -3.9 _ 104 _ 092 __ 6.4 Mount Dillon 22nd
Jpmarn _______________ 6.8 _ 14.4 _ -4.9 _ 125 _ 095 __ 2.4 Knock 14th
waterways _____ (-2) ___ 6.7 _ 16.3 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 099 __ 1.3 Mount Dillon 26th
Artane2002 ____________6.6 _ 15.1 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 100 __ 4.6 Knock 27th
Joe Public ______ (-2) ___6.5 _ 15.9 _ -4.6 _ 111 _ 089 __ 0.9 Mullingar 10th
sryanbruen ____________6.5 _ 14.2 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 110 __ 2.3 Knock 29th
M.T. Cranium __________ 6.4 _ 15.5 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.9 Ballyhaise 30th
BLIZZARD7 ____________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -6.8 _ 135 _ 110 _ - 0.3 Casement 28th
Pauldry _______________ 5.0 _ 14.7 _ -7.1 _ 215 _ 100 __ 0.3 Knock 28th

==================================================

Annual scoring update to follow, but in a few hours ... so congrats to JPmarn and sryanbruen for finishing first and third, scoring was pretty even this month in general, not likely to produce huge changes in the annual scoring but we'll see ...

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to November)

Order is now best 9/11, last month's rank for 8/10 in brackets)
__ (rank for total score shown in brackets after total score.)


_(rank) _ best 9/11_FORECASTER ____Jan _Feb _Mar_Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep_Oct_Nov__2019 TOTAL


_ 01 (01) __ 643 __ Tae laidir _______ 70 _ 67 _ 83 _ 80 _ 58 _ 64 _ 83 _ 73 _ 63 _ 41 _ 60 __ 742 (1)

_ 02 (t4) __ 614 __ Artane2002 ______46 _ 60 _ 48 _ 52 _ 66 _ 73 _ 91 _ 69 _ 80 _ 36 _ 75 __ 696 (3)

_ 03 (03) __ 607 __ waterways ______ 75 _ 19 _ 63 _ 70 _ 56 _ 84 _ 58 _ 69 _ 43 _ 65 _ 65 __ 667 (9)

_ 04 (02) __ 602 __ Sunflower3 ______77 _ 67 _ 67 _ 52 _ 60 _ 58 _ 79 _ 70 _ 69 _ 44 _ 55 __ 698 (2)

_t04 (t4) __ 594 __ mickger844posts __65 _ 47 _ 68 _ 33 _ 65 _ 69 _ 77 _ 78 _ 68 _ 49 _ 55 __ 674 (7)


_(06)(06) __ 592 __ Con Sensus______61 _ 57 _ 72 _ 53 _ 57 _ 67 _ 74 _ 72 _ 65 _ 50 _ 67 __ 695 (4)


_ 06 (06) __ 590 __ Bsal ____________47 _ 58 _ 77 _ 45 _ 56 _ 59 _ 77 _ 74 _ 66 _ 56 _ 67 __ 682 (4)

_t07 (t8) __ 588 __ Kindred Spirit ____ 58 _ 62 _ 77 _ 44 _ 49 _ 20 _ 71 _ 73 _ 70 _ 58 _ 70 __ 652 (12)

_t07 (11) __ 588 __ sryanbruen ______ 41 _ 42 _ 56 _ 53 _ 86 _ 70 _ 82 _ 51 _ 67 _ 47 _ 76 __ 671 (8)

_ 09 (12) __ 582 __ Jpmarn __________69 _ 43 _ 60 _ 62 _ 58 _ 58 _ 50 _ 70 _ 75 _ 51 _ 79 __ 675 (6)

_ 10 (07) __ 581 __ Adam240610 _____63 _ 65 _ 59 _ 66 _ 59 _ 52 _ 72 _ 69 _ 67 _ 44 _ 61 __ 677 (5)

_ 11 (t8) __ 569 __ john mac ________ 49 _ 61 _ 63 _ 67 _ 39 _ 83 _ 62 _ 50 _ 70 _ 62 _ 51 __ 657 (11)

_ 12 (10) __ 565 __ MrSkinner _______ 70 _ 52 _ 50 _ 64 _ 55 _ 64 _ 75 _ 69 _ 64 _ 46 _ 52 __ 661 (10)

_ 13 (14) __ 560 __ dasa29 __________48 _ 46 _ 85 _ 45 _ 62 _ 53 _ 65 _ 67 _ 63 _ 57 _ 60 __ 651 (13)

_ 14 (13) __ 555 __ DOCARCH ________63 _ 68 _ 63 _ 48 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 _ 53 __ 644 (14)

_ 15 (19) __ 553 __ Joe Public ________62 _ 24 _ 44 _ 52 _ 60 _ 71 _ 56 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 67 __ 621 (t19)

_ 16 (15) __ 549 __ pauldry __________55 _ 62 _ 60 _ 51 _ 53 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 59 _ 39 _ 45 __ 633 (15)

_ 17 (21) __ 548 __ M.T. Cranium _____ 45 _ 54 _ 59 _ 45 _ 57 _ 66 _ 69 _ 71 _ 39 _ 51 _ 76 __ 632 (16)

_ 18 (t17)__ 541 __ 200motels _______ 48 _ 68 _ 62 _ 60 _ 66 _ 49 _ 77 _ 42 _ 60 _ 38 _ 51 __ 621 (t19)

_ 19 (t17)__ 540 __ Rameire _________ 56 _ 77 _ 64 _ 48 _ 61 _ 48 _ 54 _ 70 _ 60 _ 37 _ 50 __ 625 (17)

_ 20 (16) __ 532 __ JCX BXC _________ 65 _ 53 _ 66 _ 38 _ 66 _ 65 _ 66 _ 55 _ 58 _ --- _ --- __ 532 (22)

_ 21 (20) __ 530 __ Rikand ___________62 _ 59 _ 54 _ 56 _ 48 _ 64 _ 65 _ 62 _ 49 _ 59 _ 46 __ 624 (18)


_(22)(21) __526 __ NormaL __________ 49 _ 60 _ 58 _ 48 _ 58 _ 57 _ 77 _ 51 _ 53 _ 63 _ 43 __ 617 (21)


_ 22 (22) __ 514 __ Dacogawa ________41 _ 49 _ 71 _ 60 _ 41 _ 70 _ 61 _ 64 _ --- _ 35 _ 57 __ 549 (21)

_ 23 (23) __ 435 __ BLIZZARD7 _______18 _ --- _ 33 _ 55 _ 32 _ 49 _ 57 _ --- _ 67 _ 60 _ 64 __ 435 (23)

_ --- (---) __ 275 __ YanSno __________62 _ --- _ --- _ 44 _ 58 _ 38 _ 73 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 275 (24)

_ --- (---) ________ Gonzo ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 64 _ 70 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 134 (25)

_ --- (---) ________ sdanseo __________45 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 81

_ --- (---) ________ bazlers ___________--- _ --- _ 50 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 50

_ --- (---) ________ Tazio ____________ --- _ 44 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 44

_ --- (---) ________ derekon __________39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 39

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Four seasons scoring will be the next and last item on the agenda.

So it would appear that Tae laidir goes into December with a lead of 29, 36 and 41 points over nearest rivals. The margin is larger in the total scoring (44, 46 and 60). Seems like a comfortable lead, would have to look at the December forecasts to see if there's even that much differential in the potential scores. Congrats to our leader and anyone else who has managed to outperform Con Sensus to date.

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Contest -- Final Report

The points for autumn have been worked out and added to the table presented back in the August thread.

These were the ten highest ranking forecasters in autumn, with their total scores for Sep-Oct-Nov and points awarded for the Four Seasons contest. Anyone not in this list scored lower than the 10th place shown, find your total below the list (if you played three months).

Rank _ Forecaster __ Total score __ Points for Autumn

_01 __ JPmarn ______ 205 _______10
_02 __ Kindred Spirit _ 198 ________7
_03 __ BLIZZARD7 ___ 191 _______ 6
_04 __ sryanbruen ___ 190 ________5
_05 __ Bsal _________189 ________4
_06 __ Joe Public ____ 187 ________3
_07 __ John mac _____183 ________2

_08____ Con Sensus_182 ______ (1)

_08 __ Artane2002 __ 181 ________ 1
_09 __ dasa29 ______ 180 ________ 1
_10 __ waterways ___ 173 ________ 1


Rest of field:
mick, Adam 172 ... sunflower3 168 ... MTC 166 ... tae laidir 164 ... MrSkinner 162 ... Normal 159
... ... ... ... ... ... Rikand 154 ... DOCARCH 153 ... 200motels 149 ... Rameire 147 ... pauldry 143


Final standings for the contest year Dec 2018 to Nov 2019


FORECASTER _________ Winter _ Spring _ Summer _ Autumn __ TOTAL to date


Tae laidir ______________ 10 _____ 10 ______ 6 ______ 0 _______ 26

Jpmarn ________________ 2 ______ 2 ______ 0 ______10 _______ 14

sryanbruen _____________ 0 ______ 7 ______ 1 ______ 5 _______ 13

waterways ______________0 _______5 ______ 5 ______ 1 _______ 11

Artane2002 _____________0 ______ 0 ______10 ______ 1 _______ 11

Adam240610 ____________7 _______3 ______ 0 ______ 0 _______ 10

bsal ___________________ 1 ______ 1 ______ 4 ______ 4 _______ 10

Kindred Spirit ___________ 3 _______0 ______ 0 ______ 7 _______ 10


___ Con Sensus _________ 2 ______ 2 ______ 5 ______ 1 _______ 10


mickger844posts _________1 ______ 0 ______ 7 ______ 0 ________ 8

pauldry ________________ 5 ______ 0 ______ 3 ______ 0 ________ 8

DOCARCH ______________ 6 ______ 1 ______ 0 ______ 0 ________ 7

dasa29 _________________0 ______ 6 ______ 0 ______ 1 ________ 7

MrSkinner ______________ 4 ______ 0 ______ 2 ______ 0 ________ 6

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 6 ________ 6

200motels ______________ 0 ______ 4 ______ 0 ______ 0 ________ 4

Joe Public ______________ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 3 ________ 3

Sunflower3 _____________ 1 ______ 1 ______ 1 ______ 0 ________ 3

John mac _______________ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 2 ________2

M.T. Cranium ____________0 ______ 0 ______ 1 ______ 0 ________ 1
________________________________________________________________


Congrats to Tae laidir who had this won after the summer portion (fortunately), and to JPmarn whose autumn win moved him into second just ahead of sryanbruen in third place overall.