Government using no deal Brexit as an excuse for whatever they want to do now, comple

Always Tired

Complete nonsense.

If you look in Paddy Power's politics section, a no deal brexit to happen in 2019 is 7/2. While the UK to either leave with a deal or get an extension is 1/8.

But we have our government leaders putting the fear of God into people saying that a no deal Brexit is increasing in likelihood.

It's not. That's all rubbish from the media. The bookie boys can't be that far wrong to have it so short that we don't have a no deal brexit.

They've gotten a few political things wrong, the Brexit vote, the US election and the greek OXI vote all wrong, but the odds were way more even. When they price up current events this short, it's a dead cert. Not even the winners of Love Island or Olivia Colman to win the Oscar for best Actress were that short, and they were considered to be almost certain winners.

There is actually very very little chance we get a no deal Brexit. Yet our government is using it as an excuse for many things being implemented in the budget. Regina Doherty had also used it as an excuse to continue Jobpath, which the Dail voted to end in February, a program costing 163 million so far and providing only an 18% success rate, just over 11,000 jobs for it's clients.

Our government should know that a no deal is actually pretty unlikely, so are they incompetent or dishonest to come out and have a no deal Brexit as the lynchpin of this budget? Because I'm sick of hearing about Brexit, sick of the way we mimic Britain in everything, and I just think it seems very 'Irish' of our government to use this for their own ends, to send money to certain areas and cut other things, when there really isn't as much uncertainty as they are saying.

They used the recession as an excuse to slash things, then the 'recovery' when it came election time, now that it's budget time again, oh, it's Brexit now. They're either lying or stupid....

Peregrinus

Well, straight off the obvious point is that Paddy Power are taking bets on what will happen in 2019. The budget just presented is the budget for 2020. The fact that the bookies price 7/2 against a no-deal Brexit in 2019 tells us precisely zero about the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit at any time in 2020. SFAIK Paddy Power aren't even offering odds on that, which tells you something.

Secondly, government has a responsibility to plan not just for the most likely outcome but also for the most serious risk. Even if a no-deal Brexit before end 2020 is not the most likely outcome, it's certainly a possible outcome and, should it happen, would be an extremely grave one for which preparations must be made. The UK government banked on "Remain" winning the Brexit referendum, and therefore gave no consideration, and made no plans, for the possibility that "Leave" might win. That has worked out really well for them, hasn't it?

s7ryf3925pivug

Always Tired wrote: »

Complete nonsense.

If you look in Paddy Power's politics section, a no deal brexit to happen in 2019 is 7/2. While the UK to either leave with a deal or get an extension is 1/8.

But we have our government leaders putting the fear of God into people saying that a no deal Brexit is increasing in likelihood.

It's not. That's all rubbish from the media. The bookie boys can't be that far wrong to have it so short that we don't have a no deal brexit.

They've gotten a few political things wrong, the Brexit vote, the US election and the greek OXI vote all wrong, but the odds were way more even. When they price up current events this short, it's a dead cert. Not even the winners of Love Island or Olivia Colman to win the Oscar for best Actress were that short, and they were considered to be almost certain winners.

There is actually very very little chance we get a no deal Brexit. Yet our government is using it as an excuse for many things being implemented in the budget. Regina Doherty had also used it as an excuse to continue Jobpath, which the Dail voted to end in February, a program costing 163 million so far and providing only an 18% success rate, just over 11,000 jobs for it's clients.

Our government should know that a no deal is actually pretty unlikely, so are they incompetent or dishonest to come out and have a no deal Brexit as the lynchpin of this budget? Because I'm sick of hearing about Brexit, sick of the way we mimic Britain in everything, and I just think it seems very 'Irish' of our government to use this for their own ends, to send money to certain areas and cut other things, when there really isn't as much uncertainty as they are saying.

They used the recession as an excuse to slash things, then the 'recovery' when it came election time, now that it's budget time again, oh, it's Brexit now. They're either lying or stupid....

Yes. The climate emergency they declared is just something to justify what they want to do too. There certainly is an emergency, but acts like cancelling the planned nationwide smoky coal ban and decimating bogs the EU have instructed us to protect show that they are not making any sort of earnest attempt to address it.

Peregrinus

Traditionally, it is the job of finance ministers to be pessimistic, and to plan on the assumption that outcomes may be at the poorer end of the range of possibilities. If they fail to do this, and the poorer outcomes do happen, they get crucified for have failed to prepare for this obviously forseeable problem. And its much easier politically, and much less disruptive economically, to start of being a bit tight-fisted and then open the throttle a bit when the worst doesn't happen than to do the reverse.

tonycascarino

Agreed. Between Brexit and this Climate change BS, the government are licking their lips at the thought of taxing the living daylights out of everyone. All their Christmases have come at once.

Ted_YNWA

Mod

Governments don't go to Paddy Power for economic outlooks.

There is other Brexit & Climate Change threads already active.