Wexford Bye Election

PatrickSmithUS

This should be called any day now.



Looks liek FF are going to run Malcolm Byrne instead of Lisa McDonald so it should be a straight run to the finish line between him and Verona Murphy FG.


Ger Lawlor will do some damage in Wexford town but really he's just setting himself up to replace Howling eventually.



The only possible banana skin will be in Mick Wallace supports a successor for his seat.

L1011

I can't see it going anywhere but Byrne but he may not retain it at the GE.

man98

PatrickSmithUS wrote: »

This should be called any day now.



Looks liek FF are going to run Malcolm Byrne instead of Lisa McDonald so it should be a straight run to the finish line between him and Verona Murphy FG.


Ger Lawlor will do some damage in Wexford town but really he's just setting himself up to replace Howling eventually.



The only possible banana skin will be in Mick Wallace supports a successor for his seat.

Party candidates will most likely be:
Malcolm Byrne (FF)
Jim Codd (Aontú)
Thomas Forde (SF)
George Lawlor (LAB)
Verona Murphy (FG)

There's talk of Mick Wallace's son contesting, the Greens will find someone, and then there'll be a few independents on the side (Pat Bardon, et al).

Malcolm is well liked in the county, and will poll very strongly, likewise with George Lawlor. Codd and Forde will be out in the early counts, and Verona Murphy soon afterward - she comes across very poorly, and frustration with the government may well keep many reluctant FG voters away from the polls. While Lawlor will start well behind Byrne, I suspect that he will tighten that gap in the later counts, with the seat most likely going to Byrne. Wallace's son entering the race would be a wildcard, which would pull SF and Independent votes in but probably not strong enough to form a credible threat.

The issue for FF and FG is that their TDs don't necessarily want their candidates to win. A third FG TD would be a very bitter pill to swallow for Kehoe and D'Arcy, who have a decent electoral strategy going between each other at the moment. With Browne, he's fresh into the family throne and doesn't necessarily want to be joined by someone who may be more popular and more catch all than himself. FF strategy right now seems to be to crowd the field and throw three councillors in at the deep end, with two seats to be won - which suits Browne fine. Two incumbents, however, might be difficult. With Labour, Howlin and Lawlor are very close - I don't think either is afraid of a knife in the back - which may suit Labour quite well in a campaign. Time will tell, and two months is a long time in politics...

blanch152

There will be four bye-elections. Should we just have a single thread and this one be renamed?

On Wexford, it is Byrne’s to lose. If he doesn’t take it, he might not make the General Election ticket so all or nothing.

McLoughlin

Lisa McDonald has put her name forward for the bye election rather than Malcolm Byrne and has hinted if FF don't support her she may go independent. She hasn't been happy with the FF bye and general election plans making comments about being "women been bullied by men" who don't "have the balls to treat women properly and as equals" etc etc

PatrickSmithUS

man98 wrote: »

Malcolm is well liked in the county, and will poll very strongly, likewise with George Lawlor. Codd and Forde will be out in the early counts, and Verona Murphy soon afterward - she comes across very poorly, and frustration with the government may well keep many reluctant FG voters away from the polls. While Lawlor will start well behind Byrne, I suspect that he will tighten that gap in the later counts, with the seat most likely going to Byrne. Wallace's son entering the race would be a wildcard, which would pull SF and Independent votes in but probably not strong enough to form a credible threat.

There will be little support for Lawlor outside of Wexford town, he's not well known around the county in General. Murphy has a better media profile and the FG machine behind her.



It's known in the New Ross district that traditional FFers are more likely to vote for Murphy than someone from the North of the County. Her best bet is a General Election but she'll push Byrne hard in a Bye election.

man98

PatrickSmithUS wrote: »

There will be little support for Lawlor outside of Wexford town, he's not well known around the county in General. Murphy has a better media profile and the FG machine behind her.



It's known in the New Ross district that traditional FFers are more likely to vote for Murphy than someone from the North of the County. Her best bet is a General Election but she'll push Byrne hard in a Bye election.

The election machine hasn't stopped Murphy making a bit of a show of herself on TV, and the New Ross vote hasn't shown up for many candidates in the past, so I'm not sure it'll be enough to save her. The town vote is solid FF, and the rural vote isn't too happy with FG. While it won't be a drubbing for FG, I don't think she'll get much beyond 12%. I think Lawlor will get the Howlin vote, maybe a small bit above that given the lower number of candidates.

PatrickSmithUS

man98 wrote: »

the New Ross vote hasn't shown up for many candidates in the past

Hugh Byrne and Sean Connick would disagree and Murphy. How has she made a show of herself?



FG took 20% of the first preference votes last time out. She'll take at least that but I reckon it might put her behind Byrne who should take at least 25%.


If it's a general election it becomes more interesting and I see them both getting in with Brown, Darcy and Howlin - Paul Kehoe would be my pick to lose out.

man98

PatrickSmithUS wrote: »

Hugh Byrne and Sean Connick would disagree and Murphy. How has she made a show of herself?



FG took 20% of the first preference votes last time out. She'll take at least that but I reckon it might put her behind Byrne who should take at least 25%.


If it's a general election it becomes more interesting and I see them both getting in with Brown, Darcy and Howlin - Paul Kehoe would be my pick to lose out.

Byrne and Connick were both FF, and neither candidate got to choose the time of their retirement. The wildcard here is Independents - a well placed independent could take a valuable few percent off Murphy (or indeed Byrne/ Lawlor to a lesser extent).
Regarding Murphy, she's received some backlash over comments she's made about homelessness and about Rosslare Europort, as such I know some who see her as being out of touch.
I'd expect Byrne on 25+%, anything under that and he'll be under pressure.

PatrickSmithUS

man98 wrote: »

Byrne and Connick were both FF, and neither candidate got to choose the time of their retirement.

Byrne could have but he was too arrogant. Granted he only lost out by 100 odds votes in the end.

man98 wrote: »

Regarding Murphy, she's received some backlash over comments she's made about homelessness and about Rosslare Europort, as such I know some who see her as being out of touch.
I'd expect Byrne on 25+%, anything under that and he'll be under pressure.

I haven't seen any of this backlash aside from the homelessness and I don' think that will lose her votes in a bye election.I know FF farmers from the Hook Peninsula that would never in a million years back Kehoe but are rowing in behind Murphy as she's been speaking out about the challenges the area faces, she's mentioned Duncannon a good few times on The Tonight Show as a village facing a big challenge with no Post Office or Shop.