Buying a diesel in 2020?

Theboinkmaster

Hi

I'm buying a new car for my wife - a 2 year old one, something like:

BMW 4 series gran coupe
BMW X3
BMW 5 series
Audi A6

Probably one of those. She has mixed mileage so petrol is probably more suitable though diesel might be OK too.

If everything stayed the same as is I'd probably buy diesel. But problem is now:

- Diesel seems dirty - for example Paris didn't let diesel cars into city in summer
- Will government change tax rates in budget?
- I heard insurance companies are looking at penalising diesels?

I don't car about residual values - looking for spend about €35k and keep it 8-10 years.

My issue is the cars I've listed are mainly diesel and there aren't meant hybrids yet so if I went with petrol it's much harder to find especially in the colour combo she wants and spec.

Would you buy a diesel now for 8-10 life or would petrol be a safe more future proof bet?

Theboinkmaster

Mods should this be moved into main forum?

Any advice would be appreciated.

fastrac

Maybe a Lexus NX.

Atlantic Dawn

First question would be does diesel suit your driving? If you are only doing a small trip to work each day that engine doesn't even come up to operating temperature it won't.

fricatus

The writing is on the wall for diesel. If you don’t care about residual values, knock yourself out, and you’re looking at a two-year-old car, but if you were looking at buying new, you’d be cracked.

In your situation I’d be taking a serious look at the Tesla Model 3. Forget all the Daily Mail headlines and ask yourself why it’s the top selling car in Norway this year (and there or thereabouts in the Netherlands and Switzerland too).

MarkN

Have you looked at the price of a new Tesla 3? They're a lot more than 2 year old versions of the cars the OP has mentioned.

bazz26

Tesla seems to be the mantra of EV fans on boards.

fricatus

MarkN wrote: »

Have you looked at the price of a new Tesla 3? They're a lot more than 2 year old versions of the cars the OP has mentioned.

Remember that electricity is about one fifth the cost of diesel, mile for mile. Factor in lower road tax and cheaper servicing, and the overall ownership cost is probably comparable to what the OP is looking for, especially with higher mileage. That’s before any speculation on where residual values will go.

I advised the OP to take a serious look at the Tesla. That means researching all the costs and doing their own calculation, not just dismissing it on the upfront sticker price. It still may not be suitable, but it needs to be on the shortlist.

Seve OB

Hydrogen fuel cell will be the car of the future.
EVs are not the way to go

Theboinkmaster

Thanks for replies so far but I’ve no interest in Tesla or electric for now - I just want opinions on what government are going to do to diesel in next few years.

Will not be buying any other car other than those listed

Mooooo

I'd say work away once there are a few longer runs in the week. Government unlikely to do anything major imo, and if they do it'll likely effect new cars as opposed to existing cars. The insurance claim is bollox I'd say, but insurance companies are pricks as well...

Casati

Mooooo wrote: »

I'd say work away once there are a few longer runs in the week. Government unlikely to do anything major imo, and if they do it'll likely effect new cars as opposed to existing cars. The insurance claim is bollox I'd say, but insurance companies are pricks as well...

Pre 2000 diesels are banned in Paris but that’s not relevant with OP buying a 2017/2018.

With those car options the diesel 2.0 190bhp is the default choice and has a large following for good reason, is economical too. I can see VRT increasing on cars with high nox so diesels likely to get dearer and motor tax likely to increase on new ones so some would say now is the time to buy.

The one option worth looking at is a 530e - only issue is the smaller boot but it is a good option especially if you can plug in, but because of grants it’s often cheaper than the 530e

Casati

Mooooo wrote: »

I'd say work away once there are a few longer runs in the week. Government unlikely to do anything major imo, and if they do it'll likely effect new cars as opposed to existing cars. The insurance claim is bollox I'd say, but insurance companies are pricks as well...

Pre 2000 diesels are banned in Paris but that’s not relevant with OP buying a 2017/2018.

With those car options the diesel 2.0 190bhp is the default choice and has a large following for good reason, is economical too. I can see VRT increasing on cars with high nox so diesels likely to get dearer and motor tax likely to increase on new ones so some would say now is the time to buy.

The one option worth looking at is a 530e - only issue is the smaller boot but it is a good option especially if you can plug in, but because of grants it’s often cheaper than the 530e

Theboinkmaster

530e seems like token hybrid.

My gut instinct is just a petrol

elperello

I'd definitely hang on till the Budget.

Casati

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

530e seems like token hybrid.

My gut instinct is just a petrol

Why pay 5k+ ore for a 530i than a 530e?

KCross

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

530e seems like token hybrid.

My gut instinct is just a petrol

The 530e is a plugin hybrid so not your "normal" hybrid at all. Only go for a 530e if your wife mainly does <50km per day and is willing to plug it in each night. You will get outstanding mpg in that scenario but if the driving is mainly >50km per day you will be burning petrol so the mpg will drop the further you drive it.

It will give you that premium car feel you seem to be after so it is worth considering depending on what your wife's daily driving pattern is and it ticks your box for BMW 5 series and petrol.

It will also be largely immune to any government taxes as it is in the lowest tax bracket for emissions already and will stay there.

You will also get toll reductions (25-50%) with that car. Does your wife regularly use any tolls?

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Thanks for replies so far but I’ve no interest in Tesla or electric for now - I just want opinions on what government are going to do to diesel in next few years.

Will not be buying any other car other than those listed

What the government will do is anyones guess but the writing does seem to be on the wall that there will be tinkering with VRT and motor tax to better reflect real world emissions so I think you need to factor that in. A bit like how high CC pre-2008 cars are now ridiculously expensive to tax. It really depends on how sensitive you are to higher yearly taxes.

Seve OB wrote: »

Hydrogen fuel cell will be the car of the future.
EVs are not the way to go

Not going to happen in the next decade anyway which is the OPs timeline. Hydrogen will be for commerical vehicles first before it makes it into any mass produced cars.

rob316

Just get petrol instead?

Heres Johnny

Op like you I had the same thoughts when buying last year. I bought my first ever diesel last summer, a 2014 530d msport after a long and happy decade with petrol 5 series. My girlfriend then passed her driving test and always said she'd like an Audi A6 so we went out and bought one of them too, a 2014 S Line 2 litre tdi. Both had very low mileage (about 60k kms on each of them) and I just decided that if they crash in value, so be it, we both would be happy to keep them for a long time. Combined price was about 40k, BMW came from England the Audi came from Ireland. They devalue to nothing anyway like my petrol 5 series did and I can't see a government taxing existing cars off the road, more just let them phase out. That's my opinion anyway....

MarkN

fricatus wrote: »

Remember that electricity is about one fifth the cost of diesel, mile for mile. Factor in lower road tax and cheaper servicing, and the overall ownership cost is probably comparable to what the OP is looking for, especially with higher mileage. That’s before any speculation on where residual values will go.

I advised the OP to take a serious look at the Tesla. That means researching all the costs and doing their own calculation, not just dismissing it on the upfront sticker price. It still may not be suitable, but it needs to be on the shortlist.

That’s a lot of miles before you make any savings via a unit of electricity.

I can see a lot of Irish people buying electric for the perceived fuel savings much like the cheap 2008+ road tax mentality.

Heres Johnny

Mark N talks sense, if you have 35k to spend on a car, research what you can get for 35k in petrol, diesel, electric, plug in, hybrid.
If your budget is 25k don't go spending 35k on an electric you'll probably not make it back.

MarkN

I was on UK BMW dealer sites last night. A 2019 520d M-Sport for 30k sterling which is almost the same now in Euro plus VRT. No brainer stuff like!

Casati

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Mark N talks sense, if you have 35k to spend on a car, research what you can get for 35k in petrol, diesel, electric, plug in, hybrid.
If your budget is 25k don't go spending 35k on an electric you'll probably not make it back.

I’m fairness I think you need to take running costs into account and not just buy to a budget... I’ve often looked on the web at stuff like Golf R’s and then do the maths and realize it will cost me 10k more in fuel over the next three years versus a 2.0 TDI.

I would consider paying more for an EV knowing the fuel savings will there over the coming years - though not sure I would extend a 35k budget to 50k for smaller American EV versus the cars the OP has mentioned

Heres Johnny

MarkN wrote: »

I was on UK BMW dealer sites last night. A 2019 520d M-Sport for 30k sterling which is almost the same now in Euro plus VRT. No brainer stuff like!

What are we talking so? 40k euro
I presume that's a pre reg and a, 191 plate here?
Still good value though

Casati

MarkN wrote: »

I was on UK BMW dealer sites last night. A 2019 520d M-Sport for 30k sterling which is almost the same now in Euro plus VRT. No brainer stuff like!

I’d say the Irish dealers are praying for a hard Brexit

I saw a 2018 520d SE Touring with 39k miles for just over 20k sterling

Henry Ford III

Does anyone know the market share of EVs? In the UK it's tripled this year to 1.4%.

It's tiny.

The reason it's not higher is no surprise. Too expensive and poor range.

Despite all the hot air very little has changed.

bazz26

The stats are listed below, EV market share at 2.55% this year so far:

https://stats.beepbeep.ie/

sunnysoutheast

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Thanks for replies so far but I’ve no interest in Tesla or electric for now - I just want opinions on what government are going to do to diesel in next few years.

Will not be buying any other car other than those listed

Well that's the $64000 dollar question really. I'd expect a closing of the price gap to petrol with smallish hikes to road tax and VRT for diesel over the next few years.

Of the cars you mention I'd suggest a G30 BMW 520d, I'd go x-drive but that's just me. I think there is an LCI facelift version out soon so don't overpay. The only issue is the usage pattern if it's just short journeys.

4 series GC lovely too but due to be replaced soon.

Not sure I'd go full EV in Ireland myself. Hybrid maybe, but I do big miles.

Good luck!

rn

I reckon the government will get it very difficult to go on a full on attack on diesel. Rural Ireland perceives it's getting a raw deal on everything at the moment. Diesel is the fuel of choice in rural Ireland. You might see restrictions similar to Paris in Dublin CC and a little bit of extra carbon tax, but nothing life changing.

You've a government that is on very shakey ground to ram anything that isn't popular, through. They couldn't even manage to bring in the proposed nationwide ban on smokey coal, which was a far easier task.

I bought diesel last year and I'm in not under any rush to get rid of it. And I think I'm replacing it in next 5 years, it'll be another diesel.

Theboinkmaster

Thanks everyone for replies, appreciate it.