Rental supply decreasing says the RTB

GGTrek

It looks like the Irish Times had a preview of the bad news coming from the delayed RTB 2018 annual report:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/houses-available-for-rent-down-by-almost-2-in-2018-1.3968792


I wonder why this year the 2018 RTB Annual report has been delayed. Maybe the stooges of the govvie at the RTB are delaying on purpose the whole bunch of bad news?


As a few people forecasted in this forum, the rental supply decreased in 2018 (and I believe 2019 will be even worse). REITS and Approved Housing Bodies (other govvie stooges) cannot build/buy fast enough to compensate the loss of small landlords. This is what Smurphy and Irish political jokers should have really thought about when they were lashing out landlords with their socialist styled regulations, but they receive good money in the Dáil and as long as they provide virtue signalling to get votes for the next election, they are fine.



"The number of houses for rent fell by almost 2 per cent or just under 6,000 to 307,348 in 2018, according to new figures from the Residential Tenancies Board show."


I shall just extract some other gems from the "geniuses" :D:D at the RTB (they are a big part of the problem and the figures below don't lie):


“It is important that this contraction in the market is monitored and that existing supply is protected as demand is still very strong in the rental market.”



What does it mean in practical terms that existing supply is protected? Should landlords be de facto expropriated (like Murphy is proposing in the next RTA bill amendment coming soon) to protect sitting tenants?


"Warning that the fall was a cause for concern, the board said: “This is a significant reduction given the extreme demand pressures in the market.”"
Here their hypocrisy (or worse stupidity) is wonderful, this is a classic effect of rent control and overregulation: the rules of supply and demand have been effectively curtailed by the govvie and their stooges at the RTB and now they complain that given extreme demand, supply is actually decreasing. I wonder why:D:D:D? What a bunch of absolute hypocrite jokers!!!


Another big:D:D:D novelty i bold below (Murphy the so called Housing Minister knows it perfectly since he raised this at the housing committee and did diddly-squat about it)

"Research by the board showed the most common reason for serving a notice to terminate a tenancy last year were rent arrears (37 per cent of cases), landlord intending to sell the property (23 per cent) and requiring the dwelling for the use by the landlord or family member (10 per cent).

Despite the falling number of registered tenancies the number of disputes between landlords and tenants reported to the board increased by almost 10 per cent last year. A total of 6,398 applications for dispute resolution were received by the board in 2018, up 525 from the previous year....
The most common complaints covered rent arrears, validity of notices of termination and refusals to hand back deposits. Just 2 per cent of complaints covered alleged breaches of rent pressure zone rules. "


So the real big problem is rent arrears :D:D and the fact that the govvie cannot care less about addressing this issue and guess what it is not rent increases in rent pressure zones for which the govvie spend the best part of the last 18 months to create a monstrous legislation to criminalize landlords. A good dose of reality always comes to bite the a..e of fake propaganda spread out by the Irish politicians and the sold out Irish media.



Finally the real icing on the cake:
"The annual report shows over €2.2 million was awarded in rent arrears in 2018 with an average award of €4,039 to landlords, while 67 per cent of all notices of rent reviews were deemed invalid."
Ok so, massive problem given the size of the arrears (thousands of cases), RTB adjudicators award large amount of rent arrears, but how much does the RTB actually help to enforce? This is the brilliant :D:D action of the jokers at the RTB:
"Some 348 enforcement requests were made last year, with almost two-thirds sought by landlords."
So landlords are effectively on their own to evict delinquent tenants and very likely only a tiny sum of the awards is recovered (RTB does not mention probably because they are playing their dirty political propaganda).



I rest my case on the fact that the private rental market and its regulations are now totally dysfunctional in Ireland because of the combined actions of the Irish politicians, together with their stooges: the RTB and the Irish sold out media (who pander to extreme left organizations like many housing/homeless charities have become) and I am now sure that the market for renters is screwed long term.

mikemac2

67 per cent of all notices of rent reviews were deemed invalid."

Does this mean 67% of these cases were invalid and thrown out so there was no valid complaint.......or that 67% of cases that were reviewed showed the landlord had not followed the correct procedures

Isn't clear to me

10pennymixup

mikemac2 wrote: »

Does this mean 67% of these cases were invalid and thrown out so there was no valid complaint.......or that 67% of cases that were reviewed showed the landlord had not followed the correct procedures

Isn't clear to me

67 per cent of all notices of rent reviews were deemed invalid."

Landlord fecked up

Fol20

It might be wishful thinking but when they mentioned that existing stock needs to be protected, I read it that more needs to be done in terms of incentives or protection of ll.

martinr5232

Fol20 wrote:

It might be wishful thinking but when they mentioned that existing stock needs to be protected, I read it that more needs to be done in terms of incentives or protection of ll.

Cant see that happening more likely they will make impossible to evict at all.

Bob24

mikemac2 wrote: »

Does this mean 67% of these cases were invalid and thrown out so there was no valid complaint.......or that 67% of cases that were reviewed showed the landlord had not followed the correct procedures

Isn't clear to me

10pennymixup wrote: »

67 per cent of all notices of rent reviews were deemed invalid."

Landlord fecked up

Yes, basically when tenants raise complaints to the RTB for invalid notices, the RTB sides with the tenant at a rate of 67% and with the landlord at a rate of 33%.

Or to say it simply: two thirds of tenants who complain about an invalid rent review notice are right, and one third are wrong.

Fol20

martinr5232 wrote: »

Cant see that happening more likely they will make impossible to evict at all.

You could be right. This won’t help their plight though. Ll will still continue to decline and would put more people off investing in the industry.

utmbuilder

They are trying to break ground now everywhere, Dublin, all over the Commuter Belts, for 350+ apartment blocks, 4 storys in height in the region of 100k,

We are going to be up to our eyes in property in 2 years mark my words.

The_Conductor

utmbuilder wrote: »

They are trying to break ground now everywhere, Dublin, all over the Commuter Belts, for 350+ apartment blocks, 4 storys in height in the region of 100k,

We are going to be up to our eyes in property in 2 years mark my words.

Its good to hear it- we critically need large volumes of apartments in Central Dublin- the less commute or no commute for people- the better.
If 100k units hit the market- obviously it will impact on prices (across the board)- but perhaps it might encourage Irish people to stop viewing property as a bank of worth to be drawn down upon at some point in the future.

All we can hope for now- is that the Central Bank continue to fiercely fight for their independence- and ignore the political pressure to relax mortgage lending regulations (which have finally tamed house price inflation).

The Student

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its good to hear it- we critically need large volumes of apartments in Central Dublin- the less commute or no commute for people- the better.
If 100k units hit the market- obviously it will impact on prices (across the board)- but perhaps it might encourage Irish people to stop viewing property as a bank of worth to be drawn down upon at some point in the future.

All we can hope for now- is that the Central Bank continue to fiercely fight for their independence- and ignore the political pressure to relax mortgage lending regulations (which have finally tamed house price inflation).

Are the majority of these builds not build to rent rather than for the sales market?

While I agree with you we need apartments we as a country/culture don't or can't live in them and raise families in them. We still have the mentality of a three bed semi.

Getting back to the topic of the thread landlords will continue to leave the market because of the taxation and the govt approach to them. Will be interesting if they change there approach following the release of these findings from the RTB. 2019 figs will be most interesting.

Fol20

How do we classify AHB, should they be part of the stats here?

Does anyone have any idea how many built to lets are being output this year and next year. If available properties are decreasing by 6k a year, I wonder if the REITs are going to be able to meet this excess demand, I have read in the past that they building in the thousands but dont know exact figures on this and when they will complete. Is it one of these where we are the storm right now but in one or two years REITs will calm down the market?

JohnnyChimpo

GGTrek wrote: »

What does it mean in practical terms that existing supply is protected? Should landlords be de facto expropriated (like Murphy is proposing in the next RTA bill amendment coming soon) to protect sitting tenants?

yes

Fol20

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

yes

Is that a yes without saying what the fallout/repercussions will be.

GGTREK - They also mention encourage investment in the same statement. I wonder if they will take any of it on board.

JohnnyChimpo

Fol20 wrote: »

Is that a yes without saying what the fallout/repercussions will be.

I imagine the fallout/repercussions would be quite severe for the landlord class, and thus politically untenable. Doesn't change the "should" though

Fol20

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

I imagine the fallout/repercussions would be quite severe for the landlord class, and thus politically untenable. Doesn't change the "should" though

If your alluding to politicians being ll themself, take this out of the equation.

You said they "should" do it. Why "should" they do this knowing full well that any ll that can get out of the market will or will do at the nearest opportunity, any future ll will stay out of the market also. All these impacts leed to a worse situation so why "should" they do it,

In regards to other countries, what are their rules around this. Im looking at USA,Germany, Australia and France?

Varik

Can't believe there are still people on here going on about politicians being LL, especially in a thread about the results of that same governments Anti LL and Anti property rights actions.

terrydel

Varik wrote: »

Can't believe there are still people on here going on about politicians being LL, especially in a thread about the results of that same governments Anti LL and Anti property rights actions.

Yeah, it would be more pertinent to look into politicians who have connections with the large property investors/reits etc, as those lot have been given the keys to the kingdom by this government. Landlords of 1 or 2 properties arent gaining anything rwally under the current policies.

Fol20

terrydel wrote: »

Landlords of 1 or 2 properties arent gaining anything rwally under the current policies.

Funnily enough, depending on your view point, you could say they are gaining or loosing. People are already aware of the anti ll stance for legislation and taxation however at the same time, you could say that due to government influence of trying to help the market, they have forced out several ll while the ll that remain are charging max rents possible which in turn help the existing stock charger great and greater rent. The unintended consequences of the government appearing to help while in the end they hurt everyone.

terrydel

Fol20 wrote: »

Funnily enough, depending on your view point, you could say they are gaining or loosing. People are already aware of the anti ll stance for legislation and taxation however at the same time, you could say that due to government influence of trying to help the market, they have forced out several ll while the ll that remain are charging max rents possible which in turn help the existing stock charger great and greater rent.

Yeah thats a good point, depends really how you look at it and theres not one assessment of the current situation thats right or wrong.
I was a landlord (accidental, single property) for well over 10 years. I always said there were pluses and minuses from it, I wasnt trying to get rich out of it, just cover as much of the mortgage/costs etc as I didnt want to live there myself, and it did that for the most part, even tho it left me with a couple of grand tax bill each year, but it was probably unsellable for most of that period, so that was the lesser of two evils.
But even the ones left (small ones with 1 or 2 properties) arent getting rich, unless the rent is way above the cost of the mortgage and their tax bill on the income. You pay roughly 40% of the rental income in tax, give or take, so your mortgage needs to be no more than 60% of the rental income to see a profit.
But it is undoubtedly a market for the big institutional landlords now, and the facilitation of them by the government is an absolute immoral disgrace in my view.

Moomoomacshoe

"The most common complaints covered rent arrears, validity of notices of termination and refusals to hand back deposits"

Just to pipe in here..the amount of people I know who were given termination notice on the grounds of family moving in, renovation etc myself included, only to be invalid ie see the property back up almost double the rent.

I think it's an Irish thing , but so many people do NOT pursue the RTB. If they did the picture would be much much clearer. Literally 10 people I know this year alone have had this happen

Seems to be no repercussion for landlords unless you are willing to fight which i can tell you is not without huge stress.

overkill602

Moomoomacshoe wrote: »

"The most common complaints covered rent arrears, validity of notices of termination and refusals to hand back deposits"

Just to pipe in here..the amount of people I know who were given termination notice on the grounds of family moving in, renovation etc myself included, only to be invalid ie see the property back up almost double the rent.

I think it's an Irish thing , but so many people do NOT pursue the RTB. If they did the picture would be much much clearer. Literally 10 people I know this year alone have had this happen

Seems to be no repercussion for landlords unless you are willing to fight which i can tell you is not without huge stress.

3 points shortage does effect LL families too, many LL have sold up and places do need to be renovated req legal standards are high I would argue that most are genuine, there are more protections for the tenants RTB is tenant friendly so throw in taxes then market contraction is policy driven as we have it.

Moomoomacshoe

overkill602 wrote: »

3 points shortage does effect LL families too, many LL have sold up and places do need to be renovated req legal standards are high I would argue that most are genuine, there are more protections for the tenants RTB is tenant friendly so throw in taxes then market contraction is policy driven as we have it.

I really have to disagree..if everyone reported I think the figures would be more truthful. Most Ll are trying to use a loophole albeit illegal, to get tenants out then upping the rent rate drastically. This in itself is having a huge effect on raising rents. There is a huge discrepency therefore here with regards to RTB figures ..so many invalid termination notices going unreported.
With regards to regs, they are minor fixes and should be a part of all rental accommodation anyway. Mostly it is add a fire blanket, service boiler etc not huge renovations. Back in 2013 I think they came into effect so not effecting most Ll at thos point. Just my opinion

beauf

Moomoomacshoe wrote: »

I really have to disagree..if everyone reported I think the figures would be more truthful. Most Ll are trying to use a loophole albeit illegal, to get tenants out then upping the rent rate drastically. This in itself is having a huge effect on raising rents. There is a huge discrepency therefore here with regards to RTB figures ..so many invalid termination notices going unreported.
With regards to regs, they are minor fixes and should be a part of all rental accommodation anyway. Mostly it is add a fire blanket, service boiler etc not huge renovations. Back in 2013 I think they came into effect so not effecting most Ll at thos point. Just my opinion

It's tenant could just move somewhere else like they used to. Then rent increases world have little effect. But they can't because there is no supply.

So it's the lack of supply that allows landlords to increase the rent. So that's your main cause.

If the rent is being raised drastically, that implies it's been far below the market rate for a long time. So those landlords can't really been having an effect of the cost of rent previously. I would guess it's most often landlords with low rents that are leaving the market. All new landlords will have rent at the high end. Why else would they enter.

And the govt takes half of it in tax. They are making more than the landlords. Don't forget that when pointing fingers.

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

And the govt takes half of it in tax. They are making more than the landlords. Don't forget that when pointing fingers.

The new landlords don't pay tax.
The 'housing associations' and the REITs are structured in such a manner that the housing associations don't make a profit and the REITs disburse their profits as dividends to shareholders- over 95% of whom are not tax resident in Ireland. Its only the silly landlords with 1-2 units who are getting reamed by the Revenue Commissioners- the selfsame landlords who are in a stampede to the door- to be replaced by the corporates.

For the tenants and the government- its the old Yiddish proverb coming home to roost- be careful what you wish for, you just might get it..........

beauf

That's AFAIK about 20% of the market, but increasing.

What % are housings associations?

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

That's AFAIK about 20% of the market, but increasing.

What % are housings associations?

Housing associations and cooperatives- are the chosen government vehicles for supplying public housing in Ireland. They are set up as non-profit entities- and given favourable tax treatment at the outset by the Revenue Commissioners (e.g. they don't pay tax on construction, VAT on completion etc etc). This model was appropriated from Scotland- on the basis the government imagined it would mean they didn't have to include the housing association finances in our public debt. Unfortunately for the government- Eurostat disagreed with this assessment- which heaped several billion more onto our official national debt (which I believe is now at 208 billion).

Fol20

Moomoomacshoe wrote: »

I really have to disagree..if everyone reported I think the figures would be more truthful. Most Ll are trying to use a loophole albeit illegal, to get tenants out then upping the rent rate drastically. This in itself is having a huge effect on raising rents. There is a huge discrepency therefore here with regards to RTB figures ..so many invalid termination notices going unreported.
With regards to regs, they are minor fixes and should be a part of all rental accommodation anyway. Mostly it is add a fire blanket, service boiler etc not huge renovations. Back in 2013 I think they came into effect so not effecting most Ll at thos point. Just my opinion

its A two way street and could also be said for ll reporting. A lot of the time when ll have issues they don’t report them as the RTB are so tenant friendly and enforcement of their judgement is very poor. It’s great they got 2.2mil but how much did the ll actually receive. As long as the tenant is out of the house and I know myself that if there is rent arrears unless substantial or damage done, I don’t pursue as it’s not worth my time.

beauf

The_Conductor wrote: »

Housing associations and cooperatives- are the chosen government vehicles for supplying public housing in Ireland. .....

Great but what % of the market is this?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/housing-agencies-provided-more-than-3-000-social-homes-in-2018-1.3892966

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

Great but what % of the market is this?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/housing-agencies-provided-more-than-3-000-social-homes-in-2018-1.3892966

Currently in the region of 13.6% of all new constructed properties in Ireland (roughly 2,742 units in 2018). The remainder of the 3k units are secondhand dwellings that were purchased (often by local authorities and then handed over to housing associations to manage). The percentage of properties being purchased (or built to order) by housing associations has been steadily increasing- and may possibly exceed 20% of all new residential units constructed within the next 2 years.

GGTrek

The 2018 RTB Annual report has come out and can be retrieved at this link:
https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/images/uploads/general/RTB_Annual_Report_2018_Final.pdf

Busterie

This is no longer true, the RTB can now initiate actions against LLs themselves without the tenant making a complaint.

Moomoomacshoe wrote: »

"The most common complaints covered rent arrears, validity of notices of termination and refusals to hand back deposits"

Just to pipe in here..the amount of people I know who were given termination notice on the grounds of family moving in, renovation etc myself included, only to be invalid ie see the property back up almost double the rent.

I think it's an Irish thing , but so many people do NOT pursue the RTB. If they did the picture would be much much clearer. Literally 10 people I know this year alone have had this happen

Seems to be no repercussion for landlords unless you are willing to fight which i can tell you is not without huge stress.

The_Conductor

The flipside of the coin is there are a significant cohort of landlords out there who don't bother chase tenants through the RTB as the common understanding is there is no point- its simply going to be throwing good money after bad. Neither landlords, nor tenants, are in the clear. There are plenty of bad apples on both sides.

With respect of all the suspicious notices of termination- the RTB findings are that over a third are actually fine, the other 64% have issues- around a third of which are resolvable- the other third not.

As for the large number of complaints about deposit retention- roughly the same ratio- a third of detentions are sustainable, a third questionable and a third clearly and irrevocably in the wrong.

There are lots of dodgy people out there- on both sides of the equation. There are also lots of people- on both sides- who aren't bothering to report issues to the RTB (for numerous reasons- but mostly because there is no faith that they will take appropriate action).

Busterie

A lot of people here also need to look at the RTB site for new rules regarding renting properties:
https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/legislation-change

A LL must now give 6 months notice of termination to a tenant more than a year.
So a tenant can now move in pay, the rent for a year and live rent free for the next 6 months.
HAP tenants can do this and HAP will not pay any rent to the LL if the tenants do not pay their tiny portion of the rent.
At the end of 6 months they will get a council house of their choice..
Anyone would be need to be mad to go into property rental as a business

Cuddlesworth

Busterie wrote: »

A lot of people here also need to look at the RTB site for new rules regarding renting properties:
https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/legislation-change

A LL must now give 6 months notice of termination to a tenant more than a year.
So a tenant can now move in pay, the rent for a year and live rent free for the next 6 months.
HAP tenants can do this and HAP will not pay any rent to the LL if the tenants do not pay their tiny portion of the rent.
At the end of 6 months they will get a council house of their choice..
Anyone would be need to be mad to go into property rental as a business

To be clear, right now a tenant can move in, pay the deposit and months rent and it can take up to a year to evict them.

Whats the difference?

The_Conductor

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

To be clear, right now a tenant can move in, pay the deposit and months rent and it can take up to a year to evict them.

Whats the difference?

Exactly- however, the new rules are just formalising what a lot of tenants were doing anyway (not that it was fair or right- but now they can formally do it). The joker in all of this- is there is nothing in it for a landlord to expedite the eviction of a tenant who stops paying their rent, destroys the place or is a social nuisance. The ironic thing is a landlord is legally responsible for the bad behaviour of tenants if they terrorise the neighbours- but at the same time- they can't do anything about it. Its a classical damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. The 3% of non-tenant/landlord complaints to the RTB last year were predominantly 3rd party complaints to the RTB about antisocial behaviour. on the part of tenants. There is no indication that any of these complaints were resolved- other than 3 cases where the RTB issued a fine against the landlord as they did not stop the antisocial behaviour of the tenant. Seems a bit unfair- punishing someone for something someone else did- and at the same time forbidding them to stop the behaviour that you've just punished them for....... Why?

mikemac2

Busterie wrote: »

A lot of people here also need to look at the RTB site for new rules regarding renting properties:
https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/legislation-change

A LL must now give 6 months notice of termination to a tenant more than a year.
So a tenant can now move in pay, the rent for a year and live rent free for the next 6 months.

120 days would be 4 months no?

https://onestopshop.rtb.ie/new-changes-to-rental-legislation/new-notice-periods/

Not less than 1year but less than 3 years ---- 120 days

This is how errors in giving notice happens and unnecessary cases get brought to the RTB causing stress for both sides. The RTB give an easy to read table

Not aimed at you Busterie Just we have had a few threads in the last month or so about disputes in notice period

Old diesel

Is the 120 days and higher not intended for terminations where the tenant HAS NOT breached the lease?????.

In which case where is the formalisation of tenants not paying rent for 4 to 6 months coming from.

Or do we mean tenants deciding to stop paying AFTER termination notice.

mikemac2

Old diesel wrote: »

Or do we mean tenants deciding to stop paying AFTER termination notice.

Yes I think that is where the thread was going

utmbuilder

based on the 20% update of housing assocation's they would be operating almost 10,000 builds every 2 years,

however I think we are all being fooled, and they are at least 50% of new builds in the 82 sites they are operating

Its important to note that the likes of Tuath only charge about 400 rent for the social housing, although I wouldnt reckon they are in the business for fun alone.

Old diesel

utmbuilder wrote: »

based on the 20% update of housing assocation's they would be operating almost 10,000 builds every 2 years,

however I think we are all being fooled, and they are at least 50% of new builds in the 82 sites they are operating

Its important to note that the likes of Tuath only charge about 400 rent for the social housing, although I wouldnt reckon they are in the business for fun alone.

Housing associations as a general principle have to be welcomed as delivering more supply.

A family getting a home for 400 quid a month from Tuath is one less family that needs HAP from a Landlord who doesn't actually want HAP.

This helps boost supply for non HAP tenants.