Budget 2020: Sunk by Brexit or Business as Usual?

is_that_so

There have already been some mutterings of of planning for two budgets - one if Boris goes headlong over a cliff and one if he suddenly discovers some level of sense. Prognostications for a no-deal Brexit are grim with projected job losses up to 50,000 and a budget surplus instantly turning into a deficit. On top of that a lot of promises are right up in the air, welfare increases, spending plans, tax cuts etc.
I'm inclined to go with some of the tax increases - Carbon taxes, a very modest giveaway contingent on the Brexit mess and a pretty tight control over spending.

So what way should the Budget be framed?

Cliff Taylor commentary on it from IT today
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/no-deal-brexit-budget-now-the-only-option-1.3968437

mad muffin

I think the government has missed a golden opportunity to capitalise on Brexit. As now the only English speaking country in the eu they should have been bending backwards to try and entice all the companies leaving the uk and setting up an eu base in Ireland.

And if they have I’ve heard nothing about it.

Spanish Eyes

I think the Brexit threat will be a great excuse to hit us hard with increased taxes and postponement of raising the tax cut off points and so on.

Maybe they should just postpone the budget till 1 November and see if No Deal actually happens.

1o059k7ewrqj3n

mad muffin wrote: »

I think the government has missed a golden opportunity to capitalise on Brexit. As now the only English speaking country in the eu they should have been bending backwards to try and entice all the companies leaving the uk and setting up an eu base in Ireland.

And if they have I’ve heard nothing about it.

Pedantic but Malta is also officially an English speaking country. Irish is our first and official language [also pedantic because it's not like that in reality].

Would agree though, there was a missed opportunity in establishing Ireland as a new financial sector center, but I guess it's not just a matter of moving companies physically but also changing laws/regulations to make it a more accommodating place - and I honestly can't comment on the specifics of how to do that.

JohnMc1

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think the Brexit threat will be a great excuse to hit us hard with increased taxes and postponement of raising the tax cut off points and so on.

Maybe they should just postpone the budget till 1 November and see if No Deal actually happens.

Green party doing well in the recent elections was enough of a clue that we're ****ed with new taxes in Oct.

tayto lover

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Green party doing well in the recent elections was enough of a clue that we're ****ed with new taxes in Oct.

They got less than 5% of the vote. Another nonentity.
But you’re right FG will use it as an excuse to lump it on the taxpayer.

JohnMc1

tayto lover wrote: »

They got less than 5% of the vote. Another nonentity.
But you’re right FG will use it as an excuse to lump it on the taxpayer.

Varadkar himself used them as an excuse to introduce more taxes.Which means that he had them in the works and used the Green Party as an excuse to introduce them under the guise saving the environment.

Harry Palmr

Only good sense to work out the budget with two quiet different possible futures to consider. Right now I'd be thinking about a no deal exit as the most likely, the department of finance can only do so much, the actual effect of Brexit, soft or hard will only be known when it occurs. To be honest any situation which prevents a tax cutting, welfare boosting budget is good thing!

Spanish Eyes

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Only good sense to work out the budget with two quiet different possible futures to consider. Right now I'd be thinking about a no deal exit as the most likely, the department of finance can only do so much, the actual effect of Brexit, soft or hard will only be known when it occurs. To be honest any situation which prevents a tax cutting, welfare boosting budget is good thing!

Steady as you go. Give nothing for the moment and see how things pan out. Agree with you.

The annual budget so far (post bust) seems to me to be predicated on handouts and tax cuts and increases to SW and so on.

Expectations need to be dampened I think. Big time.

lawred2

Marginal income tax rates should be significantly reduced but more people should be paying tax at the bottom end... 52% on income over 70k is obscene. USC should absorb PRSI in its entirety and EVERYONE should pay it. No exceptions or exemptions.

lawred2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Steady as you go. Give nothing for the moment and see how things pan out. Agree with you.

The annual budget so far (post bust) seems to me to be predicated on handouts and tax cuts and increases to SW and so on.

Expectations need to be dampened I think. Big time.

There's been no real tax cut budgets. Just playing around the edges with a few pence. Spending has ballooned though.

lawlolawl

Everyone gets a fiver extra in income tax cuts/welfare that they hand back in taxes someplace else.


Personal investments are still heavily punished because we can't let people retire early and we pour another few extra hundred million into the health service that has no net positive effect.


FG cruise the next general election.

893bet

Another week paternity leave and I would be happy.....

suicide_circus

old reliables gonna be hammered

I think we need to be paying down our debt in these very low interest rate times, because that hard rain is going to fall soon what with these Brexit clowns. We're already drowning in more debt than we as a people have ever had and the supposed party of fiscal rectitude is doing staggeringly little to reduce it. Per head of population, we have the third highest rate of debt in the developed world (after the US and Japan).


We're paying €5 billion in interest alone this year alone - and as if this is not scary enough, we're currently in a period of unprecedented low interest rates. How many more billion will we be paying in interest alone when rates go back up again (as they definitely will)? Billions per year leaving our economy to service debt. It's crazy. Meanwhile, how much cheaper would it be for the state to directly build its own social housing or hospitals like they used to do? You know, like it did in the 1930s/40s/50s/60s/70s/80s/90s? Entrusting private corporations to give us better value is just more of the neoliberal "privatise everything as it's more efficient" spin we get from all sorts of shills in media land every day.

Ireland’s €200bn debt burden: how did we get here? (1 July 2019)

Ireland’s debt: €44,365 is owed by every man, woman and child in the State: CSO numbers show burden is four times higher than pre-crisis levels (12 July 2019):

The head of the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) revealed earlier this month that the State has paid out more than €60 billion in interest on the national debt over the past decade.

Ireland's debt clock, 27 July 2019

ted1

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think the Brexit threat will be a great excuse to hit us hard with increased taxes and postponement of raising the tax cut off points and so on.

Maybe they should just postpone the budget till 1 November and see if No Deal actually happens.

Did they ?
We’ve effectively zero % unemployment. And a housing prices. Creating new jobs abc adding extra migrants into fill the job will only put an extra strain in our housing system

I think, as possibly suggested earlier, we should just skip this budget. Let things roll along as they are and see what happens. Rectify for next year.

JohnMc1

lawlolawl wrote: »

Everyone gets a fiver extra in income tax cuts/welfare that they hand back in taxes someplace else.


Personal investments are still heavily punished because we can't let people retire early and we pour another few extra hundred million into the health service that has no net positive effect.


FG cruise the next general election.

If FG [or their bitches FF] get in then this Country deserves the not so tasteful butt ****ing that will be on the way.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think we need to be paying down our debt in these very low interest rate times, because that hard rain is going to fall soon what with these Brexit clowns. We're already drowning in more debt than we as a people have ever had and the supposed party of fiscal rectitude is doing staggeringly little to reduce it. Per head of population, we have the third highest rate of debt in the developed world (after the US and Japan).


We're paying €5 billion in interest alone this year alone - and as if this is not scary enough, we're currently in a period of unprecedented low interest rates. How many more billion will we be paying in interest alone when rates go back up again (as they definitely will)? Billions per year leaving our economy to service debt. It's crazy. Meanwhile, how much cheaper would it be for the state to directly build its own social housing or hospitals like they used to do? You know, like it did in the 1930s/40s/50s/60s/70s/80s/90s? Entrusting private corporations to give us better value is just more of the neoliberal "privatise everything as it's more efficient" spin we get from all sorts of shills in media land every day.

Ireland’s €200bn debt burden: how did we get here? (1 July 2019)

Ireland’s debt: €44,365 is owed by every man, woman and child in the State: CSO numbers show burden is four times higher than pre-crisis levels (12 July 2019):

[/B]
Ireland's debt clock, 27 July 2019

We are far too obsessed with debt in an era of low interest rates.

ILoveYourVibes

mad muffin wrote: »

I think the government has missed a golden opportunity to capitalise on Brexit. As now the only English speaking country in the eu they should have been bending backwards to try and entice all the companies leaving the uk and setting up an eu base in Ireland.

And if they have I’ve heard nothing about it.

I 100% agree.

Let's screw over the UK and take it all!

mfceiling

mad muffin wrote: »

I think the government has missed a golden opportunity to capitalise on Brexit. As now the only English speaking country in the eu they should have been bending backwards to try and entice all the companies leaving the uk and setting up an eu base in Ireland.

And if they have I’ve heard nothing about it.

Chronic shortage of office space for these companies and as for where to house them????

jimmycrackcorm

mad muffin wrote: »

I think the government has missed a golden opportunity to capitalise on Brexit. As now the only English speaking country in the eu they should have been bending backwards to try and entice all the companies leaving the uk and setting up an eu base in Ireland.

And if they have I’ve heard nothing about it.

Where will their workers live?
No houses.

Eric Cartman

Varadker willl likely open with increasing the higher marginal rate threshold to 50k which will get a very short lived cheer after we find out that USC is staying put and either rolled in with or a brand new tax applied for green/brexit (or both) reasons which leaves somebody between 30-50k on basically in the same spot which will keep the middle class quiet but shaft anyone above or below that.

Spanish Eyes

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Varadker willl likely open with increasing the higher marginal rate threshold to 50k which will get a very short lived cheer after we find out that USC is staying put and either rolled in with or a brand new tax applied for green/brexit (or both) reasons which leaves somebody between 30-50k on basically in the same spot which will keep the middle class quiet but shaft anyone above or below that.

Better to keep USC and oblige everyone to pay and cut out certain high wealth earners tax avoidance mechanisms.

I think the USC was the best idea ever. Everyone pays. No credits, no mechanisms for avoidance.

But I take your point.

Eric Cartman

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Better to keep USC and oblige everyone to pay and cut out certain high wealth earners tax avoidance mechanisms.

I think the USC was the best idea ever. Everyone pays. No credits, no mechanisms for avoidance.

But I take your point.

Id accept USC if our income tax rates were lowered to offset it. Im sick of temporary measures becoming permanent in order for the government gravy train to roll on.

Spanish Eyes

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Where will their workers live?
No houses.

I know Dublin is the centre of operations right now. But nothing to stop Limerick and Cork from providing services either. Might need to up the game regarding connectivity from both airports though. And there is Ireland West airport too.

I know it is a pipe dream atm, but if planned properly things could work to entice skilled workers and employers here in less crowded cities, but no doubt higher rents will happen in time. Need to think outside the Dublin box though.

But everyone wants to be in Dublin really, and it's a growing problem. It's like London (well for now, Brexit impact is a different story).

Spanish Eyes

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Id accept USC if our income tax rates were lowered to offset it. Im sick of temporary measures becoming permanent in order for the government gravy train to roll on.

Fair enough comment, but the USC is still the leveller no matter what, and I hope they never get rid of it as a Universal charge on everyone who is working.

For far too long those on humungous salaries, or with self assessed income could avoid tax with the best advice. No more should that be the case.

ILoveYourVibes

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Where will their workers live?
No houses.

They will have to employ Irish workers. The brits don't emigrate like we do.

lawred2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Fair enough comment, but the USC is still the leveller no matter what, and I hope they never get rid of it as a Universal charge on everyone who is working.

For far too long those on humungous salaries, or with self assessed income could avoid tax with the best advice. No more should that be the case.

It was a leveler. It has been hollowed out at the bottom end.

Eric Cartman

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They will have to employ Irish workers. The brits don't emigrate like we do.

except to spain.....

Spanish Eyes

Eric Cartman wrote: »

except to spain.....

They are coming home. Health service means a lot to them and the Spanish health service is mighty good with EHIC.

But it is no longer guaranteed with Brexit. Who could blame them.

But at the same time if no deal ensues, US will pick off the NHS anyway as a quid pro quo for a Trade Deal. No win for anyone, at all.