King George Day

madmoose

In the 3pm big handicap i couldn’t resist the 7 places for Blue Mist at 20/1. He was highly thought of to win one of these races at the start of the season and was eyecatching 6th two starts ago in the Victoria Cup at the track.

I will forgive his last run last time in the hope he can do better back at Ascot in a tongue tie.

The Tetrarch

I have a bet at 27s on Defoe in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 12f, Group 1.
It is tempting to think that Enable is unbeatable but good horses do fail: tactics; hampered; ground; pace.
Connections say Defoe has trained well and is in top form.
He was slammed (15th) by Enable in the 2018 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe but she was drawn 6, he was drawn 18 (19 runners).
Another factor is Enable has had only one run this year, unusual for a King George winner. Her main aim is obviously a third Arc.

The Tetrarch

This is an unusual King George
2019 field: 2 x 3yo; 2 x 4yo; 5 x 5yo; 1 x 6yo; 1 x 7yo
Winners: 30 x 3yo; 30 x 4yo; 7 x 5yo; 1 x 6yo

There were two dual winners: Swain 5yo; 6yo and Dahlia 3yo; 4yo (they won in consecutive years).
Dahlia finished 3rd as a 5yo.
Enable won in 2017, did not run in 2018.
She is trying to win as a 3yo and 5yo, not done before.

I've also had a small bet on Magic Wand at 105 as she is a 4yo, beaten many times at Group 1, cheekpieces today for first time.

Slattsy

Enable is better over this trip so will take a world of beating.

Interesting to see how AVD goes though. I'd give him a chance to beat Stoutes into second.

Blinkers_off

1.55 Bellick 12/1
2.30 Dianthus 11/2
3.05 Coolbawn magic 7/1
4.10 Castle guest 10/1

ASOT

Only bet of the day is a double of Summer Romance & Enable.

tucker1971

ASOT wrote: »

Only bet of the day is a double of Summer Romance & Enable.

Same as that....unfortunately.😭😭

longshotvalue

‪3:00 ascot‬

‪Intisaab 1 point ew 50/1 6 places ‬
‪Good Effort 1 point we 40/1 6 places‬

longshotvalue

3:45

Hopeful Norway won’t be a pacemaker today . Im going for bet365 extra place special at 50/1 ew 5 places . 1 point ew

BumperD

Captain Coldby 5.10 Newmarket been stalking this fella he’s due to go in soon

IAMAMORON

I think the half a stone which Anthony Van Dyck gets off Enable could be interesting. He gets 11lb's off Crystal Ocean. 9/1 is too big even with Moore on top. In fairness he had a double on Thursday night, so maybe his worm is turning. He is still a big negative for me, but Epsom Derby winners at 9/1 simply have to be backed, it is too big.

PhuckHugh22

This is gonna be some race. My head says that Crystal Ocean is way overpriced at 5.5 on the machine but I can't bring myself to pull the trigger.

Will just watch I think.

ASOT

What an absolute Queen of a horse

PhuckHugh22

What a horse race. She is some ****ing yoke. Jesus that was some buzz. Fair play.

Blinkers_off

She has regressed, the arcs no formality, you'd want your head looked at backing her at the price for it

PhuckHugh22

Fair play to Crystal Ocean too it must be said. Has improved about 7lbs this year.

ASOT

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Fair play to Crystal Ocean too it must be said. Has improved about 7lbs this year.

Ran a peach

WicklowBrave

Blinkers_off wrote: »

She has regressed, the arcs no formality, you'd want your head looked at backing her at the price for it

Nah similar performance would be enough I’d say.

UrbanFret

Fantastic race. What a performance. As for the derby winner? Shocking effort.

Angliru

What a f*cking race and a fitting winner.

IAMAMORON

Today's results really cast a shadow over all of this years' 3 year olds.

None placed in the King George and Bangkok dented the Japan form at York earlier as well.

Gutsy there from both Enable and Crystal Ocean.

Blinkers_off

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Nah similar performance would be enough I’d say.

Doubt it she even got her ground today she's nearly been caught out a few times this year, it's going to happen

PhuckHugh22

That's honestly one of the best races I've ever seen in 30 years following the game.

piplip87

Moore has spent a fair bit of time looking at Frankie's arse thus year. Not today though he couldn't even see it he was that far back.

Norway went far to quick in front for AVD to be involved.

I have been watching and backing horses for the last 10 years or so and I have to say Enable is the best I've seen in the flat.

WicklowBrave

Blinkers_off wrote: »

Doubt it she even got her ground today she's nearly been caught out a few times this year, it's going to happen

Crystal Ocean had a much smoother passage and she probably only needs to beat him again to win the Arc.

Blinkers_off

piplip87 wrote: »

Moore has spent a fair bit of time looking at Frankie's arse thus year. Not today though he couldn't even see it he was that far back.

Norway went far to quick in front for AVD to be involved.

I have been watching and backing horses for the last 10 years or so and I have to say Enable is the best I've seen in the flat.

Frankel and STS would be in a different parish

mirwillbeback

Luke Morris on Pass The Vino is ammunition for those against the whip and rightly so.

Disgusting to look at.

RivetingRoger

Everything went against her, EVERYTHING, and she still found a way.
Incredible.
The allowance didn't win that race, the greatest flat horse on the planet did.

tryfix

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Fair play to Crystal Ocean too it must be said. Has improved about 7lbs this year.

Unfortunately for me he has only become more consistent and probably hasn't improved at all this year. He ran to OR 129 in last year's King George and has slipped back to OR 127 this year and I doubt he's run to OR 129 in today's race.

The Tetrarch

The time was reasonable compared to the rest of the card.
Most of the field were heavily eased, but they were still getting a 10 to 15 lengths beating.
Every year the 3yo crop is criticised but this year they might deserve it.

tryfix

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Crystal Ocean had a much smoother passage and she probably only needs to beat him again to win the Arc.

Will Crystal Ocean even run in the Arc? He's been outstayed twice now in the King George and the last few yards in an Arc are not the place for a horse that finds it hard to get home. The Champion Stakes at Ascot would be a perfect ending place for his career.


A top 12f 3yo could probably topple Enable in the Arc, but this year's 3yos are woeful. There's really only Magical and Waldgeist that spring to mind as horses that will be knocking on the door in the Arc, both are being prepared for it and of them only Magical has the potential to close the gap on Enable.

That Waldgeist is a most miserable looking specimen for a horse that's at the level he is.

FatRat

Blinkers_off wrote: »

She has regressed, the arcs no formality, you'd want your head looked at backing her at the price for it

This is all you come up with after seeing that race?

So miserable.

Andrew00

Lads are still trying to take Enable on the for Arc?? With Magical?? Ah here you're only wasting your money

tryfix

Andrew00 wrote: »

Lads are still trying to take Enable on the for Arc?? With Magical?? Ah here you're only wasting your money

Most likely true, but I was just talking about what's out there to give Enable a race. Winning a third Arc is a wee bit more difficult than winning a 2nd King George.

• The mighty OR 130 Treve failed to take her third Arc despite winning all three of her starts that year and going off at Evens.

• The Draw and at times stuff happens like an injury before or during the race.

• Magical has got to within 3/4L of Enable each time they met so if Enable's form is good enough to win the Arc then Magical would be a good substitute if something happens Enable.

• Aidan O'Brien's record with 3yos in the Arc is appalling, but he has won it twice with 4yos. Found was not as good as Magical at this stage of her career, but she found 5lb improvement in the Autumn of her 4yo career.

• The plan with Magical was to put her away for an Autumn campaign despite her being in the kind of form that would have won her at least a share of the generous King George prize money.


• I've a soft spot for Magical :pac:

Kauto

piplip87 wrote: »

Moore has spent a fair bit of time looking at Frankie's arse thus year. Not today though he couldn't even see it he was that far back.

Norway went far to quick in front for AVD to be involved.

I have been watching and backing horses for the last 10 years or so and I have to say Enable is the best I've seen in the flat.

Norway went too quick in front for AVD, biggest load of rubbish I have ever read on here. A wasted 10 years it looks like

The Tetrarch

Bitter experience has taught me not to back a runner in the Arc until very, very close to the day.
The bad one was Borgia 16/1 (drawn 1), a 3yo when she was 3rd in 1997 to Peintre Celebre. The bet was IR 650+65 tax = IR 715. She needed softish ground. The bet was placed a week before the race when the ground suited her. A dry week and the winner, Peintre Celebre (drawn 2), set a record time for the race on fast ground.

Enable has won the Arc twice.
You must remember Enable won it at Chantilly (3yo) and Longchamp (4yo).
I have not kept records of the Chantilly draw but in that 2017 Arc the first runners home were drawn 2,3,1,9,4 (Enable drawn 2).
Perhaps the draw combined with her ability made it easy.
In contrast, when Found won in 2016 at Chantilly the first three home were drawn 12,11,16, time ~5 seconds faster than Enable.

In the 2018 Arc at Longchamp Enable was drawn 6 of 19 runners.
That time was 21st fastest of the 46 years I have on file so the ground was probably good as officially given.
Perhaps the ground in Enable's two Arc wins was not very fast.

These are the draw positions of the 18 fastest Arcs from 46 years (fastest first).
You can see there is a big advantage at Longchamp to a low draw, the advantage greater the faster the ground (fastest first): 2,2,5,7*,3,8**,4***,6,3,14,4,6,7,6,6,7,10,6,1.
Small field size: *10; **11; ***8

Danedream(2), Peintre Celebre(2), Bago(5), Sinndar(7)*, Treve(3), Trempolino(8)**, Rail Link(4)***; Sea The Stars(6); Marienbard(3); Golden Horn(14); Tony Bin(4); Hurricane Run(6); Dancing Brave(7); Detroit(6); All Along(6); Mill Reef(7); San San(10); Dylan Thomas(6); Zarkava(1)
Zarkava is the only winner from stall 1; stall 2 x 3; stall 3 x 3; stall 4 x 5; stall 5 x 2; stall 6 x 6; stall 7 x 6; 8x2; 9x1; 10x2; 11x0; 12x1; 13x0; 14x5; 15x3; 16x1; 17x3; 18x1
.... note that stalls 14 and 15, at the ends of the two stall machines with a gap between the machines have higher than expected winners.

The win from draw 14 was Golden Horn, but Treve's jockey drawn 8 set a very slow pace throwing away his draw advantage, and Dettori went up the outside to the front of the field (watch it on Youtube).
If you know your stalls machines you know that in the English Derby the stalls hold 10, in France they hold 14.
There was a big gap for Frankie between stall 14 and the next stall machine (stall 15) and he had room to move forward.

What might inconvenience Enable is a high draw on fast ground making it impossible to get a forward position as the field turn right, leaving her 10 lengths to make up in the short straight.
Orfevre was drawn 18 when beaten by Solemia on heavy.

Another factor not generally known is Longchamp has clay soil.
In hot weather it get hard and cracks and is very fast.
It wet weather it gets very heavy, like glue, it become a very long 2,400 metres, and the draw has little effect.