Best Rainfall Radar Forecast

Western Lowland Gorilla

I am getting a completely different rainfall forecast for the next few hours from:

1. Met Eireann - https://www.met.ie/ (in the rainfall forecast tab)
2. https://meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall

I'm inclined to agree with number 2 above, as it matches the UK Met offices latest rainfall radar.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar

Any other recommendations?

Rougies

The meteoradar prediction is a bit gimmicky, it just takes the current radar image and morphs it into the future based on wind speed/direction. For example if you look at some of the small showers, they stay the same shape/size/intensity as they move, which never happens in reality. It could be useful as a localised guide at very short ranges, ie. within an hour or so.



The met.ie prediction is based on computer model output, which can be very hit or miss in it's accuracy. The prediction you are looking at now could have been computed many hours ago and might not reflect the latest real time data. It's more useful as general guide over larger areas. you can look at various different computer model predictions on sites such as meteociel.fr



IMO the best method is to use the live radar and watch the loop. You can determine yourself the speed/direction precipitation is moving and whether or not it is intensifying or dissipating. Also have a look at the short range model output for a general guide of what's "likely" to happen and to what extent it correlates with the radar. With practice you can get pretty damn accurate predictions. (It helps if you have 10 years experience of staring at radar loops for hours on end chasing snow :pac:)

Danno

I'd agree with rougies. Radar watching is fairly accurate though in this convective setup it can be tough to determine whether showers will spontaneously bubble up nearby.