One Hundred Million Predictions

riemann

With the incoming cash windfall of €100,000,000 which will be soon divided up between a lucky few, I thought it would be interesting to have a prediction thread of how it will all pan out.

For example:
- Who will receive compensation
- When will it be paid
- Will there be a max/min
- etc...

Given the day that's in it I would like to remind everyone that any hot air spouted by political parties in recent days will be soon forgotten after an election.

riemann

I would like to see the time periods analysed based on prices paid to producers, with a level of compensation allocated to each one.

There could be different bands of losses
i.e.
A - Moderate - 10c/kg
B - Severe - 20c/kg
C - Extreme - 30c/kg

Say between Nov 1st and Nov 8th was determined to be 'B'. Each producer who processed cattle with this period would receive 20c/kg so c70euro per animal.

Possibly a maximum of 5k per herd no to ensure no-one is made up overnight.

I've made up the figures above and they would have to be adapted to balance with the 100,000,000.

Just my two cents.

What is unfortunate is the factories are probably going to be part of the administration of the fund and they usually have high admin fees.

Another option would be producers sending in their factory docket as part of an application form, this would be much more complicated to process.

The cynic in me reckons they'll probably end up trying to please everyone by dividing up the pot between one and all.

PoorFarmer

riemann wrote:

Another option would be producers sending in their factory docket as part of an application form, this would be much more complicated to process.

The men selling on to finishers also took a hit on mart prices

blue5000

Bit on the comic today. I reckon half divided between suckler cows, and the other half to go to finishers who are not factory controlled/owned feedlots. Incidentally the cartoon on P2 is calling it the 6th quarter:(.

_Brian

blue5000 wrote: »

Bit on the comic today. I reckon half divided between suckler cows, and the other half to go to finishers who are not factory controlled/owned feedlots. Incidentally the cartoon on P2 is calling it the 6th quarter:(.

Do we take from that that the industry isn’t recognising lads tearing dairy cross beef as having talking a hit with the poor prices.

I thought it was a beef rescue package and not a suckler cow bailout ?

riemann

PoorFarmer wrote: »

The men selling on to finishers also took a hit on mart prices

Do you have a proposal? How would supposed losses sustained be calculated?

riemann

blue5000 wrote: »

I reckon half divided between suckler cows

Naturally enough everyone has their hand out and I'm at the top of the queue myself.

I would be interested to hear how the suckler payment scheme would work.

Would it only include Mart sales?

PoorFarmer

A percentage could be added to the sale value of all cattle within a given period be it in marts, factories or from the yard. Not perfect but it would be a bit more inclusive than just finishers.
Cull cows sold within this period and slaughtered within a further time frame included in this. Obvious dairy transactions (freisan heifers etc) could be excluded.
Payments via cheque and bank transfers can all be traced and the paperwork for movements is already available to DAFM. That just leaves cash transactions which are few and far between.

White Clover

How about spending it on exposing the anti competitive actions of the processors and retailers?

PoorFarmer

White Clover wrote:

How about spending it on exposing the anti competitive actions of the processors and retailers?

Shouldn't have to spend it on this. Should be happening anyway if government had any interest in doing so.

blue5000

_Brian wrote: »

Do we take from that that the industry isn’t recognising lads tearing dairy cross beef as having talking a hit with the poor prices.

I thought it was a beef rescue package and not a suckler cow bailout ?

€50m to su cows comes to €52/cow, the other €50m divided per head to cattle slaughtered by farmers between 2 dates.

charolais0153

White Clover wrote: »

How about spending it on exposing the anti competitive actions of the processors and retailers?

What does that achieve

White Clover

charolais0153 wrote: »

What does that achieve

Are you serious?

20silkcut

Don’t see why finishers should get preference here lads selling weanlings last year lost their absolute shirts.
I sold cattle last year for the same price I bought them 6 months previous some for even less. No choice didn’t have enough feed. If every beef farmer got something.
Every beef farmer took some kind of hit last year.
How many beef farmers are in the country 60-70,000 ?? That’s 14/1500 euro per head it would help pay a feed bill. Nobody should be made up out of this. Getting into fine details of moderate , severe etc will put most of the money in the hands of a few.

Bass Reeves

First off I cannot see a complicated system on a kg basis being used or taking sales into account. It would be unmanageable and take too long to process. I also think not only should factory controlled feedlots cattle be excluded but also contracted cattle for slaughter should be excluded

Looking at the IFJ proposals and taking it that factory feedlot controlled cattle are excluded them there are the following proposals.
Pay a slaughter premium on finished cattle at 121/ head
Exclude cows and only pay on prime cattle 156/head

A blanket payment to all specialist beef farms 78k farms at 1280 each

Pay 50 euro/ suckler cow and 78/ head on slaughtered prime cattle excluding cows and factory controlled feedlot cattle.

This is a compensation scheme for losses incurred because of Brexit mainly. However we do not know what criteria the EU followed to arrive at the size of the fund or why it was allocated. Was the drought last summer a deciding factor as well.

How do you decide on losses last winter. First off you exclude extra feed costs. Any finisher going into last winter should have factored extra feeding costs in. It was a known quality before the winter. While I have some sympathy for bull finishers it's a high risk business and processors pull there cattle always hardest. Some lads compounded losses by trying to hold on. In general on prime cattle winter price was back by 25c/ head or on average 90 euro on a steer or 75 on heifers. That comparing prices with 2017/18. Cows were back over 100/ head and bulls 120-180/ head but cows were bought cheaper last autumn and bulls are always high risk. As not all losses should be compensated should slaughter bonus be any higher than 50-70/ head.

The journal said there was over 950k suckler cows. But these only produce about 760k calves. Cows that do not produce a calf do not incurred a production loss and anyway you should not encourage inefficiency. It could be paid on suckler calves that were alive after September 1st or alive at 30 if born after that in 2018.

If you take the view that all beef farmers lost money through sales from the middle of last year you could go with a straight top up related to last years BFP but this would reward armchair farmers. However you could again relate this to nitrates on the farm capping it at 170 units and at 150 HA( nearly 400 acre farm).

Mind you I like the blanket payment of 1280 euro option in the IFJ

_Brian

Last thing I can see is a flat payment.

You can be damn sure that those with influence are working in the background to get the lions share rather than a flat payment.

Haven’t seen direct statements from Beefplan or IFA on their suggested split. I expect the IFA to be looking for it to go to a chosen few, but maybe they will surprise me.

K.G.

riemann wrote: »

With the incoming cash windfall of €100,000,000 which will be soon divided up between a lucky few, I thought it would be interesting to have a prediction thread of how it will all pan out.

For example:
- Who will receive compensation
- When will it be paid
- Will there be a max/min
- etc...

Given the day that's in it I would like to remind everyone that any hot air spouted by political parties in recent days will be soon forgotten after an election.

Answers
Larry
Eventually
Fellas will probably multiply it for him.
The only way to do it is flat rate per acre × livestock numbers

wrangler

K.G. wrote: »

Answers
Larry
Eventually
Fellas will probably multiply it for him.
The only way to do it is flat rate per acre × livestock numbers

The IFA campaign all winter was for compensation for winter finishers,
i'd be surprised if it doesn't go that way.
The submission to the EU for €100m compo was the same

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

The IFA campaign all winter was for compensation for winter finishers,
i'd be surprised if it doesn't go that way.
The submission to the EU for €100m compo was the same

Incorrect
The IFA campaigned all winter( it could not have forecast winter finishing losses would be as bad as they were) for Droughts/Brexit losses to be compensated for. Now there is an attempt to hijack all the money for finishers.
I wonder if the existance of the BPM help in the push for this finding. While it is a bit of a loose cannon it is showing farmer ( especially smaller/ mid sized) farmer's dissatisfaction with the way agri funding is dispersed and the price farmers receive for cattle.
At the end of the day a FG commissioner delivered it. The funding will be delivered to a political agenda. I think IFA is already positioning themselves for this. ICSA the BPM and the Hill Farmers will also have a say. we are 9-18 months away from an election.
Which is more important politically 4-500 unhappy finishers or 60k unhappy other beef farmers seeing 500-1000 lads picking up 20-40k each

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Incorrect
The IFA campaigned all winter( it could not have forecast winter finishing losses would be as bad as they were) for Droughts/Brexit losses to be compensated for. Now there is an attempt to hijack all the money for finishers.
I wonder if the existance of the BPM help in the push for this finding. While it is a bit of a loose cannon it is showing farmer ( especially smaller/ mid sized) farmer's dissatisfaction with the way agri funding is dispersed and the price farmers receive for cattle.
At the end of the day a FG commissioner delivered it. The funding will be delivered to a political agenda. I think IFA is already positioning themselves for this. ICSA the BPM and the Hill Farmers will also have a say. we are 9-18 months away from an election.
Which is more important politically 4-500 unhappy finishers or 60k unhappy other beef farmers seeing 500-1000 lads picking up 20-40k each

I doubt if anyone in IFA takes BPM any more serious than I do, there's a press release from January so they've been on to it since long before then.
https://www.ifa.ie/minister-creed-must-put-case-to-brussels-on-brexit-losses-for-winter-finishers/
They had an opportunity to use Brexit, but I believe that brexit had very little to do with beef prices, outlook for drystock farming has been poor long before this