Chester Racing Festival 2019

IAMAMORON

Don't forget that there is a low draw bias on all sprints and up to 7f's. I think it is fine after that but there is argument for the same bias up to the 2 mile start where the low draw definitely starts again.

1.50 Great Dame
2.25 Fanny Logan
3.00 Angel Alexander
3.35 Dashing Willoughby and Sir Dragonet.

Enjoy.

Theonly way

The draw bias is always overbet and a hateful track for punters .

Theonly way

Great start for you there and well done.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

The draw bias is always overbet and a hateful track for punters .

Low drawn ones still have an A/E over 1.0 last time I checked, definitely over 5f anyway

IAMAMORON

There is a massive draw bias from 5 to 7 f at Chester. Don't bother arguing. There is not a computer program on the planet that can replicate it.

The only argument arrives at 1m +. But as I said, in the 2m 2f cup on Friday there is a also a low draw bias and a race to the first corner. Getting a good early position is vital for the race. Most of the middle distances are small enough fields, it never really becomes a factor.

The bookies love obfuscating race trends by muddling statistics, it helps them make more profit, quite a simple business model really, over supply the punter with too much information leading to a confused response, sublime.

When you accumulate all the different distance results at Chester you can argue that the draw bias is overrated. IMO this occurs because it is not a factor for races between a mile and 2 miles. Hence the stats are blurred.

Mostly Harmless

It is possible for there to be a massive draw bias but for it to also be overbet in the market (i.e. the advantage is reflected in price)

IAMAMORON

Both Gosden's fillies look decent, the winner looks very good. Que lots of Frankel waffle. They just interviewed Ralph Beckett there, he looked disappointed and a bit baffled, he must have fancied his one big time.

NaiveMelodies

Think Yolo Again is nicely priced, possibly better than her mark and might like the track- 16s in the 3pm.

Edit- @MH I literally just saw the other thread haha. Nice to be in good company.

Mostly Harmless

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Both Gosden's fillies look decent, the winner looks very good. Que lots of Frankel waffle. They just interviewed Ralph Beckett there, he looked disappointed and a bit baffled, he must have fancied his one big time.

Mehdaayih looks a bit of a machine on that evidence, you'd think they'll have to supplement her for the Oaks now. Great to see some nice unexposed 3yos showing their class, always an exciting time of the year.

IAMAMORON

Dascombe just said that " half the yard " are on Angel Alexander.

He also said he owns a bit of She Can Boogie so he is a bit torn, he doesn't fancy the third one, that probably wins :p

IAMAMORON

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Mehdaayih looks a bit of a machine on that evidence, you'd think they'll have to supplement her for the Oaks now. Great to see some nice unexposed 3yos showing their class, always an exciting time of the year.

Yeh she looks savage. She had loads of excuses if she needed them and still hacked up.

Mostly Harmless

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Think Yolo Again is nicely priced, possibly better than her mark and might like the track- 16s in the 3pm.

Edit- @MH I literally just saw the other thread haha. Nice to be in good company.

Chance went when she didn't get out in front

tryfix

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Both Gosden's fillies look decent, the winner looks very good. Que lots of Frankel waffle. They just interviewed Ralph Beckett there, he looked disappointed and a bit baffled, he must have fancied his one big time.

O'Brien's yoke ( Secret Thoughts ) was very disappointing, not too sure why he'd send such a non-contender to what has been a key oaks trial for Ballydoyle in recent years.

You could blame the early position she found herself in but I reckon that using the speed influence War Front to speed up a crazily wayward but very talented Montjeu staying mare was never going to be a recipe to produce a Gp1 12f classic horse.

The winner is a cracking filly, despite the quirky Frankel influence that's a filly with a really great attitude. Looks more impressive than that Pink Dogwood yoke that's favourite for the Oaks.

Theonly way

Great Dame 1 drawn
Mehdaayih 6
Leodis Dream 6


Yes they do win drawn low but the price is always too short and near impossible to make a regular profit.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

Great Dame 1 drawn
Mehdaayih 6
Leodis Dream 6


Yes they do win drawn low but the price is always too short and near impossible to make a regular profit.

A sample size of three is hardly telling you anything

IAMAMORON

See results for the last eleven runnings of race 3 over 5 f.

Previous Years
2018 Spoof 3 9-7 Callum Shepherd 9/2 (Charles Hills) (Drawn 3)
2017 El Astronaute 4 8-8 Jason Hart 2/1Fav (J J Quinn) (Drawn 1)
2016 Kimberella 6 8-10 F Norton 5/1 (David Nicholls) (Drawn 3)
2015 Lexi's Hero 7 8-8 T Hamilton 10/1 (Richard Fahey) (Drawn 4)
2014 Sir Maximilian 5 8-7 S Donohoe 7/1 (T J Pitt) (Drawn 4)
2013 Forest Edge 4 8-6 J F Egan 12/1 (David Evans) (Drawn 3)
2012 Confessional 5 9-2 P Mulrennan 5/1 (Tim Easterby) (Drawn 2)
2011 Doctor Parkes 5 8-5 P Hanagan 10/1 (Eric Alston) (Drawn 7)
2010 Masamah 4 8-6 W Buick 9/1 (Kevin Ryan) (Drawn 3)
2009 Sohraab 5 9-3 E Ahern 11/4Fav (H Morrison) (Drawn 4)
2008 Bertoliver 4 8-6 P Robinson 12/1 (D K Ivory) (Drawn 7)

Anomalies happen. The winner got a great ride and Dave O'Meara looks to be pouring in the winners.

The second race doesn't count as it was over a mile and a half. As I said earlier the draw is irrelevant at Chester between a mile and 2 miles.

IAMAMORON

Can't wait to see the price on that one.

Mostly Harmless

https://www.flatstats.co.uk/draw-stats.php?course=Chester

Again sample sizes are bit small but 5f shows decent return for low drawn once you factor in prices of runners, 6f and 7f a lot more even

Theonly way

Distance: 5 furlungs
Draw Wins SR% PL PL% Starts
1 51 19.7 133 51.4 259
2 53 20.9 133 52.4 254
3 42 15.9 116 43.9 264
4 32 12.6 99 39 254
5 30 11.9 86 34 253
6 24 10 79 32.9 240
7 16 7.1 68 30.2 225
8 13 6.5 49 24.4 201
9 6 3.6 32 19.3 166
10 6 4.6 15 11.5 130
11 4 4 10 10.1 9

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

Distance: 5 furlungs
Draw Wins SR% PL PL% Starts
1 51 19.7 133 51.4 259
2 53 20.9 133 52.4 254
3 42 15.9 116 43.9 264
4 32 12.6 99 39 254
5 30 11.9 86 34 253
6 24 10 79 32.9 240
7 16 7.1 68 30.2 225
8 13 6.5 49 24.4 201
9 6 3.6 32 19.3 166
10 6 4.6 15 11.5 130
11 4 4 10 10.1 9

Strike rate is a tad meaningless though because you're not accounting for field size or price of runners

IAMAMORON

For me it just helps me arrive at a decision before I back a horse at Chester. I am happy enough with my methods.

In particular with 2 year old maidens, it can be that there is pile of crap drawn 1 -5. If that is the case I can make my own mind up about picking a runner who is drawn higher. If you check the stats the 2 year old races offer more of a chance for the outside draw than a standard handicap over 5 f. The reason being that handicappers know a lot more about the game than a 2 year old. I doubt the computer program can replicate that stat either.

Theonly way

IAMAMORON wrote: »

For me it just helps me arrive at a decision before I back a horse at Chester. I am happy enough with my methods.

In particular with 2 year old maidens, it can be that there is pile of crap drawn 1 -5. If that is the case I can make my own mind up about picking a runner who is drawn higher. If you check the stats the 2 year old races offer more of a chance for the outside draw than a standard handicap over 5 f. The reason being that handicappers know a lot more about the game than a 2 year old. I doubt the computer program can replicate that stat either.

Ha ,Really funny !!!!!!!!!!!!


The point I was trying to make is that drawn low is no bad thing until the bookies price them up as your TRUE chance is say from box 2 20.9 % thus 4 against 1 which they are never that.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

Ha ,Really funny !!!!!!!!!!!!


The point I was trying to make is that drawn low is no bad thing until the bookies price them up as your TRUE chance is say from box 2 20.9 % thus 4 against 1 which they are never that.

If only it were so simple as every runner drawn 2 had an actual probability equal to the strike rate for that stall.


In other news, Artistic Streak looks very overpriced in next (coincidentally also drawn 2 )

Theonly way

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

If only it were so simple as every runner drawn 2 had an actual probability equal to the strike rate for that stall.


In other news, Artistic Streak looks very overpriced in next (coincidentally also drawn 2 )

Be fair the data that I supplied is for the distance of 5 furlongs and of course they must have some form to win as the draw is only one factor out of a long list.

IAMAMORON

Dr Koukash has two left in the last. I am backing both.

Penwortham
Humble Gratitude

ASOT

Had Gossiping in my tracker after after someone on here said it went on a run around this mark last time. Didn't have a penny on because I'm an idiot. Well done whoever pointed it out though can't remember who it was.

Theonly way

Well not good for most I presume as one winning jolly out of the 7 races.

BumperD

Find it very difficult punting this time of year. Royal Ascot timeline / end of June things tend to settle down in terms of 3yr old form etc . In the interim you’re facing aob 2nd strings winning and others running under cooked.

Theonly way

Snapraeceps 10

Best one I could find and still badly drawn but backed it earlier . but I am out of luck the last 2 days so.

Theonly way

Drifted like a barge in the market but got me back a few bob .

IAMAMORON

I have input all the relative racing details into the GUMPTION123 Chester racetrack simulator. I have used an advanced binary algorithim based on

draw bias, ground, trip, course form, MichaelOwenness, Tom Dascombesness, Recent DaveO'Mearapurplepatchness. Champagne Sales ( on track only )

It spat out the following options

1.50 Confessional - Gumption Factor +11
2.25 Circus Maximus - Bred in the Pink. Also a small ew on Living Legend. I actually think this is a pretty good race. I would keep on eye on all of these throughout the season.
3.00 Lola's Theme - Dascombite party special.
3.35 Kew Gardens - Hose up potential +11, he wouldn't be running it here for a spin.

Lots of racing out there, be careful.

Mostly Harmless

Not much that appeals today and bit absurd that we have several jumps meetings and just the one flat turf meeting.

Lincoln Park in 3.00 race the only bet I have had.

Theonly way

1.50 Confessional - Gumption Factor +11 (ha)

Word of caution with that one as it has a record fresh of 0-2-11 .

7:50 pm
Craigmor @ 15/8 my chance today.

GL

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not much that appeals today and bit absurd that we have several jumps meetings and just the one flat turf meeting.

Lincoln Park in 3.00 race the only bet I have had.

Adding Fool For You each way in first given they are down to the 9 runners now. That's definitely it now.

Andrew00

Japan going for the Dante. Could be some race next week

FatRat

Kew Gardens is a rancid price. Morando has very good form in this for a 9/2 shot and will appreciate a small bit of give in the ground. I'll be having him

votecounts

FatRat wrote: »

Kew Gardens is a rancid price. Morando has very good form in this for a 9/2 shot and will appreciate a small bit of give in the ground. I'll be having him

hope you had a few quid on him, kew gardens was very poor
good tipping:)

Theonly way

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not much that appeals today and bit absurd that we have several jumps meetings and just the one flat turf meeting.

Lincoln Park in 3.00 race the only bet I have had.

Well done to 2 good decent priced winners with Morando 9/2 .How I did not back it .AAHHHHHHHH

Theonly way

Theonly way wrote: »

1.50 Confessional - Gumption Factor +11 (ha)

Word of caution with that one as it has a record fresh of 0-2-11 .

7:50 pm
Craigmor @ 15/8 my chance today.

GL

Thankfully that one delivered in the style expected .