Chinese Snooker Revolution

Frank O. Pinion

I noticed some posts in the World Championship thread about the "Chinese Snooker Revolution" that I was going to respond to, but I thought we could have a separate thread about the topic. Surely the Snooker forum can handle two active threads...

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

These Chinese lads look like they are going to takeover. Would not be surprised if the Chinese dominate the top ten in 15 years time.

zuutroy wrote: »

Been hearing that for over a decade. So far they've all fallen a mile short of what the raw talent promises. Every single one including Ding has underperformed. Don't appear to have the grit.

The Nal wrote: »

We heard that 15 years ago though....

My opinion of the issue is that the Chinese players are taught Snooker from a very young age, similar to being taught piano or violin over there, despite any interest or natural ability in the sport. They then reach a very high standard of play, but plateau before obtaining that elite greatness, (besides Ding).

Here's an article with Shaun Murphy (from April 2017) talking about the supposed "revolution", https://www.eurosport.com/snooker/world-championship/2016-2017/shaun-murphy-snooker-kids-face-a-bleaker-future-in-uk-than-fish_sto6142521/story.shtml

Now, we've heard the threat of a Chinese takeover for years and years, all through the 2000s and 2010s. Ding and Wenbo have won events and been in the Top 16, which I feel is the real test of consistency. Besides those two, I don't think any others have been in the Top 16, (Marco Fu is Hong Kongese).

Here's how the top ten Chinese players on tour are currently ranked (not including points from 2019 World Championship):

#10 - Ding Junhui* (32yo, highest ever ranking: #1)
#20 - Yan Bingtao (19yo, currently his highest ever ranking)
#24 - Xiao Guodong (30yo, highest ever ranking: #19)
#25 - Lyu Haotian (21yo, currently his highest ever ranking)
#28 - Li Hang* (28yo, currently his highest ever ranking)
#36 - Zhou Yuelong* (21yo, highest ever ranking: #26)
#41 - Liang Wenbo (32yo, highest ever ranking: #11)
#53 - Yuan Sijun (18yo, highest ever ranking: #51)
#59 - Zhao Xintong (22yo, currently his highest ever ranking)
#68 - Lu Ning (25yo, currently his highest ever ranking)

*Still competing in this year's World Championship

There's another few on the tour, currently ranked outside the top 70. As you can see, there's a massive gap between Ding and the rest. Besides Ding and Wenbo, none have won any ranking events, or even regularly make finals. Ding hasn't won an event in nearly two years, and Wenbo just has the 2016 English Open win. A record six made the Crucible this year, but three have already lost in the first round.

So, do you believe in a "Chinese Snooker Revolution" coming soon? Years away, if ever? Who will be the first Chinese World Champion?

My opinions are, Bingtao, Sijun, Xintong are greatly talented from the under 25s, but it's hard to pick top prospects, as they have a good season or two, then disappear down the rankings. Ding's personal life has changed the past year, unsure why else he's been underperforming recently, Wenbo is up and down. I think any "revolution" is the cliché "decade away". I don't have confidence in Ding winning the Worlds, but couldn't guess which Chinese player actually could.

Joe_ Public

Interesting topic for sure frank. I agree with some of what you write, havent read murphy piece but will have a look later.

I think some things mitigate against the chinese performing well in tournaments here - having to leave home at young ages is probably part of it. But i'd question too what kind of grounding in the game they get over there, how good is the coaching etc. On two occasions on eurosport this season i heard ronnie and jimmy be quite critical of their coaching set ups in england which was quite interesting because you dont normally get many details on any players practice set ups whatsoever. Ronnie said he'd been to the academy in sheffield a few times and found it a bit casual for his liking, players checking their phones constantly while they were at the table and that kind of stuff. I dont know how much to read into it, but that was his opinion anyway.

As to what players might make breakthrough, its hard to say, generally the ones getting hyped are the ones making a splash in whatever tournament is running, but its all about seeing guys make consistent impacts and breaking top 16/top 10 etc. I've been hearing ridiculous hype about Zhao Xintong for years now, ever since he beat Steve Davis in a tournament in china when he was 14 or something and got the "future world champion" tag, but just looks a potting machine to me (same as Thepchaiya and Lisowski) but while that may bag you a few best of 7 matches, i cant see that as a long term path to riches in the bigger tournaments with long form matches. So many of these guys seem clueless when it comes to tactical side of matches, and thats something i believe really needs to be instilled young.

Thing is, though, there isnt much talent coming through this side of the globe and the far east keeps producing the numbers so from the quantity metric alone, you would think a change in the balance of power would be in the offing sooner rather than later. Hard to put a precise timescale on it though.

Ultimate Seduction

The Chinese takeover is Barry Hearns dream, he probably started this propaganda years ago. As the stats and rankings show, they give a poor showing for themselves considering how much it's supposedly played over there.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b

The current generation of Chinese players isn't great -- but there aren't all that many good non-Chinese players under the age of 30 either. The quality of the current game is being supported mainly by players ranging from their mid-30s to mid-40s, with no obvious up-and-coming talent to replace them.

One reason the Chinese players haven't broken through is that the old guard of O'Sullivan, Higgins, Williams, etc., has remained at the top of the game for so long, and there are other good players in their mid-30s like Selby and Robertson who also scoop up a lot of titles. But after the current crop of top players move on, the field will be a lot more open, and I think we'll see more Chinese players winning titles from that point onward.

Joe_ Public

Whatever about ronnie, i think both williams and higgins are as surprised as anybody that they can still remain so competitive at this stage of their careers. Personally i think that's as much down to deficiencies in the younger generation as to their own qualities, probably a bit of both. Easier tables possibly helps the older guard too, though hard to say definitively which type of player that would favour.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b

The longevity of those players' careers is remarkable, especially considering that past greats like Davis and Hendry didn't achieve much after the age of 30, but all good things must come to an end. Williams, Higgins, and O'Sullivan all turn 44 this year. How much longer can they stay at the top?

We're now seeing young Chinese players in their teens and early 20s, like Luo (19), Zhao (22), and Zhou (21), making it to the Crucible. We're not seeing comparable non-Chinese talent breaking through, with the possible exception of Cahill.

So I'd say it's probably accurate to say that it 10 years time, when most of the current top 16 will have retired, Chinese players will be far more dominant in the game. Not because Chinese players are so good, but because young talent isn't emerging in the UK like it used to.

Joe_ Public

Credit to them but i dont think it's as remarkable as you might think. Players in the past had long careers too, ray reardon to name just one example, fred davis reached a world quarter final (beating alex higgins) at the grand old age of 60-something. I just think it's, partly at least, to do with the fact that the old stagers nowadays are not been challenged hard enough, though those who believe that the standard has never been higher (c. BBC analysts) mightn't agree with that. Davis had to contend with emergence of Hendry and the likes of Ronnie in early 90s. Hendry's decline was a bit inexplicable really, but the standard around the early noughties with all that great generation at the top of their game was truly off the charts. The games golden age imho. I personally dont see that kind of quality around at the moment, especially when it comes to the worlds and the big tournaments where table craft and bottle come so hugely into it.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b

I don't know that we have many examples in the modern era of players sustaining a high standard beyond their mid-40s. The game has changed a lot since the days of Fred Davis. The likes of Eddie Charlton, Joe Johnson, and Steve Davis did play on into their 50s and it was a pretty sorry spectacle. I guess we'll see how it goes for O'Sullivan, Williams, and Higgins, but the latter is already talking about retirement.

But I agree that the young talent just isn't there anymore. Judd Trump is still heralded as a "young" player, and he's almost 30. So a new generation of Chinese players could fill the vacuum.

Joe_ Public

Yeah, beyond mid 40s is pushing it a bit i think. Should be anyway. You'd have guys like Mark Davis and Anthony Hamilton enjoying purple patches well into what ought to be their snooker dotage but you'd like to think they were exceptions rather than rules. The other problem for the older guys is while it's great to still play the top tournaments, you still have to trawl the circuit to maintain your ranking (unless youre ronnie and can just enter a couple and win!) and i imagine that takes its toll with the passing years. Despite what some of the establishment say, i'm not convinced the sport is in all that great a shape at the moment, but all it takes is for a couple of stars to emerge and put a different complexion on things. Have to wait and see i guess.

xi5yvm0owc1s2b

Well, Barry Hearn keeps repeating that the sport is in great shape because there has never been so much prize money. But that that says more about his ability to negotiate sponsorship deals than about emerging talent in the game.

For the average punter, there are maybe a dozen players who make the game worth watching, and many of them are now in their late 30s or 40s.

Every time a Kyren Wilson, Anthony McGill, or James Cahill comes along, we hear a fanfare of "Behold the exciting new talent breaking through the ranks!" But these players usually don't have the talent or the consistency to win major titles and stay at the top.

From the end of Reardon's era through the mid-2000s, it was an oddity to have a World Champion over the age of 30. But only once in the past decade has a player in his 20s won the World Championship (Neil Robertson, aged 28 in 2010).

It will be interesting to see what professional snooker looks like in 10 years' time. I do think there will be a lot more Chinese involvement. But I also think the overall standard will be lower.

Godot.

Reece Gigantic Stalker wrote: »

Well, Barry Hearn keeps repeating that the sport is in great shape because there has never been so much prize money. But that that says more about his ability to negotiate sponsorship deals than about emerging talent in the game.

For the average punter, there are maybe a dozen players who make the game worth watching, and many of them are now in their late 30s or 40s.

Every time a Kyren Wilson, Anthony McGill, or James Cahill comes along, we hear a fanfare of "Behold the exciting new talent breaking through the ranks!" But these players usually don't have the talent or the consistency to win major titles and stay at the top.

From the end of Reardon's era through the mid-2000s, it was an oddity to have a World Champion over the age of 30. But only once in the past decade has a player in his 20s won the World Championship (Neil Robertson, aged 28 in 2010).

It will be interesting to see what professional snooker looks like in 10 years' time. I do think there will be a lot more Chinese involvement. But I also think the overall standard will be lower.

Wouldn't lump Kyren in with those other two you mentioned tbh. He's one of the elite now.

Godot.

Considering that the best of them are young and still improving each season, the one year ranking list is probably a better indication of how they're doing.

#19 Ding Junhui
#23 Zhao Xintong
#26 Lu Haotian
#30 Xiao Guodong
#31 Yan Bingtao
#33 Zhou Yuelong
#36 Yuan Sijun
#39 Lu Ning

Given their age bracket (late teens, early 20s) that Xintong/Haotian/Bingtao/Yuelong/Sijun quintet are pretty unmatched in terms of talent which is why there's so much hype.

Frank O. Pinion

Ding Junhui is dangerously close to once again dropping out of the Top 16 World Rankings. He has 150,000 ranking points coming off his tally soon, from his 2017 World Open win. Which was the last time he won a tournament, and he's only made 1 ranking final since then.

Yan Bingtao could not only overtake Ding as "China's #1 player" this season, but could even crack into the Top 16. I'd love to see him make The Masters.