FX outlook for Euro over the coming months?

makeorbrake

Does anyone have any thoughts on the likely relative strength of the Euro (particularly against the dollar) over the coming months? Will clarity re. brexit (assuming we get some clarity) have a bearing?

TiGeR KiNgS

makeorbrake wrote: »

Does anyone have any thoughts on the likely relative strength of the Euro (particularly against the dollar) over the coming months? Will clarity re. brexit (assuming we get some clarity) have a bearing?

Yes I have a thought.
The Euro will either get weaker or stronger after the Brexit mess is completed.

makeorbrake

TiGeR KiNgS wrote: »

Yes I have a thought.
The Euro will either get weaker or stronger after the Brexit mess is completed.

A thought better kept to yourself.

towger

TiGeR KiNgS wrote: »

Yes I have a thought.
The Euro will either get weaker or stronger after the Brexit mess is completed.

Or stay roughly the same

makeorbrake

If you don't have anything to add, then don't (waste peoples time).

TiGeR KiNgS

makeorbrake wrote: »

If you don't have anything to add, then don't (waste peoples time).

OK but does that apply to your opening post also ?

makeorbrake

TiGeR KiNgS wrote: »

OK but does that apply to your opening post also ?

No it doesn't. It was a genuine, honest request. It doesn't require you being a complete dick in response.

Kickstart1.3

makeorbrake wrote: »

Does anyone have any thoughts on the likely relative strength of the Euro (particularly against the dollar) over the coming months? Will clarity re. brexit (assuming we get some clarity) have a bearing?

I don't think Brexit will have a massive impact on the Euro/Dollar rates bar we have a very nasty bitter Brexit that might crush Euro and British economies which in turn would lead to a world wide recession.
A recession for the US would mean more dollar printing as they cannot do anything with the interest rates as they are already so low.

The dollar is still backed by Oil, so increasing Oil price = lower dollar value

RedRochey

I don't think a nasty Brexit will lead to a US recession because 1) there won't be a "nasty" brexit, it'll either be some sort of trade deal or just a long delay and 2) the british economy isn't all that important on a global scale, the US stock markets haven't been reacting to any brexit news so far.

In terms of the Euro, I can imagine it getting weaker, a lot of poor economic measures coming out recently and the ECB going back to QE

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

The British economy isn't all that important??? :eek:

It's the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world.

RedRochey

Yes but most of its big companies are all big global ones and Britain make up a small % of their sales

1st dalkey dalkey

makeorbrake wrote: »

Does anyone have any thoughts on the likely relative strength of the Euro (particularly against the dollar) over the coming months? Will clarity re. brexit (assuming we get some clarity) have a bearing?

Trade and confidence levels will be impacted by Brexit to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the 'hardness' of the Brexit eventually agreed.
That will impact the value of the Euro.
But a bigger issue will be the trade talks between the EU and the US.
Trump has a tendency to shoot first and ask questions later in trade talks. With China, he hit them with tariffs first, then invited them to talks.
If he follows the same methodology with the EU, that could hurt the Euro, at least until the trade talks are complete.
Longer term, once a Brexit deal and a US trade deal are in place, I expect the Euro to do well.