Dundalk Friday 15TH

Theonly way

Dundalk 15th .


R1
For me anyhow this is slightly above the normal for this grade and probable two to concentrate on on recent form are [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Danz Gift 1 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif](drawn 1) and Ty Rock Brandy 8 (drawn 8).[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Dans is normally held up for a run whereas ty rock is more versatile and can win with keane on board. ^. [/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]2[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Personally rarely back in claiming races as there inconsistent horses with extra problems than one can judge from their career. However . The will line up and solve the equation .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]The horse that catches my eye for sure is New Vocation 4.No world beater for sure [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]20lb wrong with the jolly. Ha .But my through a few bob on it as its not as bad as one thinks given the jollys record.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R3[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]This distance of race always confession. [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Either they go up in trip or drop back to the only alternate in dundalk which is a mile.The fastest time is Alhajjaj 1 .4 /1 seems fair.[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]But Ciao 9 has to be considered in any calcul .[/FONT]






[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R4[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]45-65 horses are rated thus and if there was a standout on performance I for sure cannot find it .[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Skip [/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R5[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Brilliant race and for sure [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]tactician.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]4 out of the 9 have not had a recent run !!!.[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif] [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Bring to the table the fit not necessary_the best horse normally wins these events thus my selection is the maiden Royal Court 5 and [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]its a record is excellent without getting the win from 5 attempts on the AW. But 100% place record and at the current odds of 6/1 well I for sure will take my chance.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R6[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Some more 45-65 unlikeable types [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]and thrown in to just confuse matters 6 unexposed types.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Top of the list of those for me is [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Flojo 13 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]But drawn 13 with its inexperience will probably run well .[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Current Fav [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Latchet 6 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]has to be considered and then Binned (ha) .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]The race on the 25[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif] Jan is probably the best piece of form where Crest Of A Wave 3 and Very Smart 8 ran [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]where there were excuses for both failing next time .Its folly to accept that there is not more to offer but as stated this is tricky with a few other unexposed types. [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Q will I bet on this = Yes .Alot will depend on the market but for sure if slow boat Latchet 6 wins I will LOSE alot.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R7[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Port Lions 9 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]comes with a 40%strike rate on the sand but has not ran for 295 days .Its record reads well all the same and trainer/Jock is 25%. However Gougane Barra 4 for me .[/FONT]




[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]GL[/FONT]

Theonly way

The post Mortem= results

R1
Won

R2
non runner

R3
won

R4
Skip ( which was correct as no way to predict that)

R5 lost and even my selection failed to repeat not my best analysis

R6
Won big here mainly because of the market.

R7
Lost.

Over the 6 races well up and hope any readers of the tread are also.

GL.

The Rooster

Appreciate your analysis and selections, but not sure how a follower could be ‘well up’ from following your selections yesterday?

From the 10 horses mentioned (excl the NR), you had 2 winners at 5/1 and 9/2. So 1 point on all 10 would leave someone a couple of points up, which is good, but not quite in the ‘well up’ range. So maybe I am misunderstanding your tips.

For race 6, for example, none of the 3 you mentioned came in the Top 3, although you were bang on in dismissing the favourite. You said this was a ‘won big’ race, but I was down 3 points based on your tips. Clearly I misunderstood, so what did I do wrong?!

Mostly Harmless

got the game by the ambiguous descriptions

Theonly way

To : the rooster

If you are refering to the sp well correct .However and mark my words when I put them up they were a hell of alot bigger .

You can check this out by going to Irishracing .com.

It will give you the early prices but getting on is another matter.

In ref to R6. I stated correctly that there were 6 unexposed types .In other words I could not quantify them correctly and played them against each other . Fore sure could have lost alot if slow boat Latchet won or the others did not improve but to keep it simple for most kept it to the 2 that were most likely for me but Iseebreeze had 5 prevoius runs .Some woeful and some good .If I had of mentioned every horse for most they would find it confusing. Thus my post and TRULY it takes alot of time to put it together in words .Then give it away.

Next time if you are following watch the market as its essential for betting .
Or just follow me early as I normally am ahead of it.

GL

Theonly way

https://www.irishracing.com/result?race=Dundalk_Fri_15th_Mar_2019_6_15&prc=087&prd=201903151815

Theonly way

https://www.irishracing.com/result?race=Dundalk_Fri_15th_Mar_2019_5_15&prc=087&prd=201903151715

Theonly way

Furthermore refer you to my post last week.

Its there for all to see well in advance and something similar but got a big payout that week .

Next week what would you THINK is likely to happen???????????

One has to laugh. Ha.

Mostly Harmless

Maybe put the price and make it clear what bet you are doing when you post? Might help avoid the confusion. The analysis before the race is a bit hard to follow but the conclusions post race seem to be very clear about what was bet and win/lose. Seems Ciao opened 4/1 on early prices and assume this was the price when posted on Friday at 3am and finished SP of 9/2.

Theonly way

Ciao =
Career 10%-50%-10
AW (sand record)=20%-60%-5

Alhajjaj
Career 18%-27%-11
AW =22%-33%-9

Which one are you going to back. ??

MyStubbleItches

Going by the wording of the pre race analysis post of the Ciao race, one would presume that the chosen bet was Alhajjaj

Theonly way

Maybe the next time I post why bother even reading !
I will just put the money directly in to your account.

Ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MyStubbleItches

Theonly way wrote: »

Maybe the next time I post why bother even reading !
I will just put the money directly in to your account.

Ha !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

While that would be nice, I wouldn’t expect it of anyone. My point is, on reading the post, it seemed as if Alhajjaj was the chosen bet but afterwards you say that you had the winner. All I’m saying is that maybe you could state for definite which horse you’re actually backing.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

Ciao =
Career 10%-50%-10
AW (sand record)=20%-60%-5

Alhajjaj
Career 18%-27%-11
AW =22%-33%-9

Which one are you going to back. ??

Now I know the result I would definitely be backing Ciao too

Theonly way

To: Mostly

If people cannot understand that they for sure will lose .

It could not be put more simple .

To generate that data which is wins place and runs TAKES alot of skill .It is not available on the web and even after doing all that one still has to put a attachment I.e a figure so you can asses after the race .

Thus my normal reply : the post Mortem. One has to (for me anyhow ) correctly quantify what happened because not unless you are a compulsive gambler one can win regular.

Mostly Harmless

Generating data like number of runs vs number of wins and making a % figure is really advanced data generation and certainly not available on the web anywhere.

Great to have you back Goat

BumperD

The Goat. Total spoofer ( no more bets till Christmas then posting and betting like a maniac on another site the next day and every day hahahahaha )

Theonly way

Mind putting a 4ft6inch x 4ft6inch obstacle is ridiculous .

Reminds me of cartoons as there is not alot of difference .It was pure greed what happened yesterday and who benefited ???
One winner there .I for sure blame the jock as it was a high profile ride and it was well publicly disclosed to punters and racing fans who do not bet NH.
For such an experienced horseman and given its position in the market I was shocked .
For future reference .Horses being re shod at the gate in all counties their true chance is 40/1.


Truly.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

Mind putting a 4ft6inch x 4ft6inch obstacle is ridiculous .

Reminds me of cartoons as there is not alot of difference .It was pure greed what happened yesterday and who benefited ???
One winner there .I for sure blame the jock as it was a high profile ride and it was well publicly disclosed to punters and racing fans who do not bet NH.
For such an experienced horseman and given its position in the market I was shocked .
For future reference .Horses being re shod at the gate in all counties their true chance is 40/1.


Truly.

Please show your advanced data generation that was used to arrive at the figure of 40/1

tipptom

Nothing to do with the horse being re-shoed.

Mostly Harmless

I'm guessing Theonlyway is more of an expert on trolling than horses given the way that post got thrown in out of nowhere

BumperD

Theonly way wrote: »

Mind putting a 4ft6inch x 4ft6inch obstacle is ridiculous .

Reminds me of cartoons as there is not alot of difference .It was pure greed what happened yesterday and who benefited ???
One winner there .I for sure blame the jock as it was a high profile ride and it was well publicly disclosed to punters and racing fans who do not bet NH.
For such an experienced horseman and given its position in the market I was shocked .
For future reference .Horses being re shod at the gate in all counties their true chance is 40/1.


Truly.

True chances at 40/1 by the Shoe Shodding - Ansell !

Theonly way

Name one please That was re shod at the gate or before the event .I can .But I can also fill you with 200 in a row who lost directly because it does upset the horse .

Best practice is take the other shoe off or withdraw .Fact.

If one was watching the farrier yesterday it was not correct .

Theonly way

It cost a top class flat performer its life. For me It was a fkn disgrace.

To get one of those horses in a lifetime is difficult .One has to be very lucky or numbers .To treat it like that in not on.

Theonly way

As for the data re horses being re shod .Its available if you care to look.

I could show you where but then why bother insulting you.

Mostly Harmless

State of this guy. 100% goat hahahahaha

Brock Turnpike

Theonly way wrote: »

As for the data re horses being re shod .Its available if you care to look.

I could show you where but then why bother insulting you.

How are horses shod in the first place? Trying to get my head around why one would need to get re-shod.

Theonly way

To Brock

It was a concern and well reported in the media that there was an issue with its off fore.
The reason given then that it was not a concern .Normally what happens is the farrier will use a glue to stick the shoe to the Hoof which works fine 90% of the time.This would have been discussed at a high level as it was alot of irish people banking on it to run well.On the way to the start the shoe came off.The jock only noticed it just before the the final check of the soresingle.(the safety strap that goes over the the saddle).The jock would have been aware of the previous problem yet gets the course farrier to nail the shoe back on.This cost a top class beautiful horse its life.Never mind the punters and was a disgrace.Personally dont back NH racing and really felt for all there not least J o brien because he was up in the stands and circumstances out of his control .He put his fate in the jock who fkd up big time.

The horse is dead. Enough said.

Mostly Harmless

My fav bit is that apparently 1 in 200 horses win after being reshod at start but they are a genuine 40/1 shot to win after being reshod at the start. Strong grasp of the figures there.

yaboya1

Obviously if a horse is 50/1 or bigger, the preference is to lose a shoe before the race as it actually improves their chance.
Wtf?

Theonly way

To: Mostly Harmless.

The last one that one one after being re shod was 41 races ago.
If you dont know how to collect and process DATA well try re_ education .

Bye.

Theonly way

PYTHON.

google it.>

Free info from all as they have to ISSUE a report on any indecent. Albeit in Europe and Australia .The US stuff does but to get the form it is franchised to DRF. Thus most of the reports are not public.

Theonly way

When you get past IF ; and Boolean well you will know how to code it and its not difficult .

Just not easy.

Linking that the math to the sheet but got a system that works perfect .

So I can do DUNDALK up until 3rd may when it closes. Until Sept

Mostly Harmless

I am a coder by profession but thanks for your expert input, if you believe that a 1 in 200 probability is equal to a "genuine 40/1 shot" then your code is likely prone to some fundamental logic errors (i.e. garbage in, garbage out)

PhuckHugh2

Theonly way wrote: »

To: Mostly Harmless.

The last one that one one after being re shod was 41 races ago.
If you dont know how to collect and process DATA well try re_ education .

Bye.

That is a lot of one's or is it won's or even 1's.

PhuckHugh2

Dude no offence but you are flinging statements around here like you are the only one who knows anything about any programming language.

I like MH am also involved in this as a profession and dont feel the need to profess superior knowledge to everyone on here.

We get it you know Python. You only mentioned it 10 times. Move on.

Theonly way

Whats worse is you know nothing about horses also >>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Guesser.

But I dont come on your fkd up math tread and insult an idiot as there is NO teaching the brain dead.

IDIOT.

Theonly way

No .Just sick of the sh_t that some feel comfortable with insulting me and take offence to that .


IF you are as good as me with all the so called KNOWLEDGE that you claim to have well lets have it as its whats Dondalk is all bout winning which my I add has been extremely successful.

For sure I have tried other tracks with the same DATA .

PhuckHugh2

Theonly way wrote: »

No .Just sick of the sh_t that some feel comfortable with insulting me and take offence to that .


IF you are as good as me with all the so called KNOWLEDGE that you claim to have well lets have it as its whats Dondalk is all bout winning which my I add has been extremely successful.

For sure I have tried other tracks with the same DATA .

Can you explain the post i made that claimed that i am better than you? I dont see it.
Do you have some sort of inferiority complex?

I am not here to play some game of one-upmanship on an anonymous forum. I will leave you fight that battle with some else. Best of luck to you.

baltray

TheOnly Way...Would you please stop acting like William Benter who has cracked horse racing betting and nearly won a billion euro!

Many people use python, r studio, c++, etc. Just scrape the data off, use a statistical significance test and do a regression model...blah blah blah...

But that does not make you one of the best!

There is alot of people on this who uses general horse racing knowledge and can be alot better than yourself!!

So provide your tips if you want on this but don't be acting like a god with everyone on this being inferior to you.

Theonly way

06-03-2019, 22:24
  #5
Theonly way
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Join Date: Mar 2018
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Well aware of that .But it did win and for me anyhow Flutter as they wish to be called pay Fpp.


Either way it was small as if you care to read when I posted it was not a big bet .
Mark my words the ones that I had given alot of time and attention to were.
They were also heavily backed as for sure when I put up my tread about those it was 8/1 Dandys and 7/1 Mulz.


Look I had a good day .
That for sure is not always the case .But at least you know you are not dealing with artificial intelligence .Ha.
Quite sick actually when I got the return from my f/c in the last .Had I done it on the tote it paid 76.

The Mig

Can write in Python but can't even quote a post properly on boards.ie

PhuckHugh2

Am not even sure what the above is supposed to be. I asked him where i said i was better than him. And he tries to quote his own post and fails. I really have no idea whats going on.

Not to bothered having a discussion on this any further.
Enjoy whatever it is you are trying to achieve Theonly way.

Theonly way

Look :
Its quite simple >

Some are what they are !! .

Others think what they could be ???

If you dont like my Dundalk tread please dont read the winners. (in advance)

Theonly way

If you are clever and astute you will know my selections before I post them.

Python will do that for you auto.

But there are horses rinning there 2m that are thrown in.
Rhythm that with I like to win .

convert

OK, that's enough.

Please stop the petty bickering and be nice to one another. Rather than insulting each other, you should be discussing racing.

/Thread closed.