Dundalk_WED

Theonly way

Dundalk_wed 6th.


Hi all.A good card in comparsion to the English offering today and a few worth a FLUTTER Ha .Could not resist that after the newly to be named BF/PP outfit.
However onto a more serious agenda of clever math and some return for my efforts.


R1
Market leader [FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Markhan 1 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif](drawn 1) has been put in Fav primarly because of the excellent Jock/Trainer record being 35% .But for me anyhow the actual horse will struggle to beat a couple .Preference is for Dalileo 7.It boasts a 38% strike rate on the AW [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]posting some smart efforts for the MJ crew.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R2[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Simply put the form will clearly tell one that [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Burning Lake 12 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]is the best that is on offer but that comes with the high risk of 5 totally unexposed types three of which are top trainers.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R3.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Like this event .¬¬¬.It was to be on last friday but for the unfortunate incident .That day there was a big market move for [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Gougane Barra 11 [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]but [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]today is drawn badly .The smartest effort this season over the 7f in this grade was put in by Ahlan Bil Zain on the 4[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif] Jan.in a rated race.Dandys Gold 5 was drawn 11 that day beaten 4.6 lenghts.Its the clear pick on that effort and won over 6 last start but its record over 7[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]f[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif] reads 2-7-16.=56% place chance .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]That is the highest of these in this event.Only concern is this jock.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R4[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]How many times have I seen O Brien using the track as a schooling ground.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Take the short odds at your peril .Skip or back [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Surrounding 2[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R5[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Like this English trainer and while it will be difficult to beat the market here my play is e/w on [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Barys 3[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Look it has to find a bit on form or the others not fully wound up but without seeing them one wont know that whereas with this one having ran well 24 days ago for me.Bit of a Flutter .Ha we will see.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R6[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Have to say this event intrigues me .One thing I hate is these reserves.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Anyhow [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]45-65 horses are never consistent that is why they are in the bottom level.However and there always is the time factor The fasted of these Voyageofdiscovery 14 but a carpark draw so thats binned.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Next best is [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Mulzamm 13 .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Not so easy binning this one even though its drawn wide.It was way above this grade before .It boasts a distance record of [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]1-5-12=50%chance to be there .Look they ran it over 7 last start and the comments read “mid-division, ran freely, [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]not clear run [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]under 2f out, switched right and 5th 1f out, ridden and kept on well inside final furlong “.That is not ideal but happens regular .However the previous run just behind Crossingoz [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]with Voyageofdiscovery third reads well Given that Latchet 10 cannot do that speed..[/FONT]



[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R7[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]With the market and have already backed [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Drakensberg 10.[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Will do the f/c with the likeable [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Tooreen Legend 9[/FONT]




[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]GL.[/FONT]

Theonly way

[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]The post Morten= the result[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R1[/FONT]
[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Selection :[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Dalileo [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]beaten by a better jock[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R2[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Selection Burning Lake [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]won[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R3[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Selection :Dandys Gold [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]won[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R4[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]skip[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R5[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Selection : Barys [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]woeful and lost.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R6[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Selection : Mulzamm .[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]won.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]R7[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Selection :Drakensberg [/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]won[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]S[/FONT][FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]econd advised bet the f/c won.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]Enjoyable and profitable.[/FONT]


[FONT=Liberation Sans, serif]GL[/FONT]

robbiezero

Super picking

Mostly Harmless

Burning Lake finished 2nd after stewards

Theonly way

Well aware of that .But it did win and for me anyhow Flutter as they wish to be called pay Fpp.


Either way it was small as if you care to read when I posted it was not a big bet .
Mark my words the ones that I had given alot of time and attention to were.
They were also heavily backed as for sure when I put up my tread about those it was 8/1 Dandys and 7/1 Mulz.


Look I had a good day .
That for sure is not always the case .But at least you know you are not dealing with artificial intelligence .Ha.
Quite sick actually when I got the return from my f/c in the last .Had I done it on the tote it paid 76.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

Well aware of that .But it did win and for me anyhow Flutter as they wish to be called pay Fpp.


Either way it was small as if you care to read when I posted it was not a big bet .
Mark my words the ones that I had given alot of time and attention to were.
They were also heavily backed as for sure when I put up my tread about those it was 8/1 Dandys and 7/1 Mulz.


Look I had a good day .
That for sure is not always the case .But at least you know you are not dealing with artificial intelligence .Ha.
Quite sick actually when I got the return from my f/c in the last .Had I done it on the tote it paid 76.

Well done. Great to have you back Goat

BumperD

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Well done. Great to have you back Goat

It cannot be......?!! Hummmm...

Theonly way

Truly there is no pleasing some wasters.

Its not difficult .Control .

cichlid child

I had nothing to do yesterday when Dundalk was on.
So read and followed your analysis ended up winning thank you.
I like the way you read the race even though they cannot all be winners.
Looking forward to your read on Cheltenham.
Thanks

Theonly way

Cheers and thanks for your post .
National hunt racing is what it is .At the top level its probably ok but tried it before and it goes Hit one and the bookie wins .


There are no obstacles on the flat and all NH horses are flat bred.


My take on it anyhow .From experience best to concentrate the trends which are the races where the bookies lose consistently.The champiom chase springs to mind immediately as had won and remember it was a winning formulae when one reads what happened for the last 20 years..


Slingfield Kemptom dundalk and Chelms .Not a fan of Southwell but do bet on it and lose .Ha.



GL

Theonly way

My record at Southwell is SH_t but forgiving that one attempt which will probably end up last giving some of my well earned to flutter as we will see the entertainment value .Ha.


Serious here :I have backed Jazz Legend 4

Reason > would make a case for the others also and probably lose but this one is an American breed true and true.
The nearest thing that we have is Southwell.It ran a good time last start and for me .But comes with a wealth Waring as stated.

Theonly way

Opps course record for this one reads well.I.e 1-1-4.

Hradly 11/8 one could say whereas add up the others and reads poor.

GL

Theonly way

Have a nice day with hopefully a few bob from flutter as they wish to call themselves/

cichlid child

Yees
I bet on Jazz. Couldn't see the race because of work but
Thanks Again

Theonly way

WD.

LuasSimon

Theonly way wrote: »

WD.

Judging by your present form any chance of a preview of Dundalk tonight ..
Thanks in advance ðŸ‘

Theonly way

Look there is alot of racing going on today and tonight.
My favored track has a poor offering.However and there always is ha while the best form on offer is a horse who FKD up last start and is evens well one needs to look elsewhere.That is the Q and where exactly.

I have taken a chance on Terri Rules. @ 8/1. The reason will bot be obvious to most but for sure those odds dont represent its true chance .Its record reads over this trip 4-4-17=47% which is higher to the fav.It ran well last start and for me .


GL

cichlid child

Missed that one. Great Picking in fairness 14/1 2nd.

Theonly way

The post Morten:
The winner was heavly supported in the market .It was / when I posted.What annoyed me was I lost any chance at the gate as the horse reared up .
I accept that with the horrible pain of losing.But as there was alot going on yesterday hopefully some got a good payout.

Not here .Ha.

GL

Theonly way

Well its bog racing in the UK today and gl with that as for sure wont be playing .I will be laying as know what to expect which is failure.

Kempton details later.

Theonly way

Mark my words correctly .As its far from the truth that horses repeat their previous form on the wet ground.

Been there and yes for sure you will get some but they are priced accordingly .Laying most of those.

GL

Theonly way

My best chance today is Oneovdem 3.There are alot of factors in this ones favor .Albeit its on at 830 .

I will be up alot before then and hopefully you also.


Enjoy.

Theonly way

Horse racing is 80% math .I take due care and attention to the details and weigh up the true chance. It is time consuming but profitable.

Brock Turnpike

Have you suffered some form of stroke?

Theonly way

Ha very funny .Trust me well ahead today.

Theonly way

To luas.
I did not play dundalk as was going out and it takes alot of time which I did not have .

But for sure next Friday.

Theonly way

Look Oneovdem will try to make all.Its drawn 3 so a good chance .Against is the unexposed Merchant Of Venice. So what will happen if my math is correct and normally is they wont catch this one .


GL

Theonly way

The post Mortem: Well first have to appolligse to any that folllowed me yesterday with Oneovdem.
For sure it was supported in the market which is normally a good guide at kempton .It went to the front as expected but could not see it out and failed to reproduce its previous form.For sure I lost as clearly stated that I expected it to win.What was confusing for me anyhow was Merchant Of Venice .It returns at 7/4 but was freely available at 5 on the exchange and was a massive market drifter.Look it only had the three runs but the reason why I was against it was did not think it was fast enough bot clearly got that wrong and a poor performance from my selection added to my problems..

cichlid child

No need to apologise for giving your opinion. its up to people themselves either to listen or ignore.
If every horse that you picked won you would be off spending your millions not on here giving your advice for free.
Cheers

Theonly way

To cicllid.

It does matter to me as hate losing after putting in the correct rffort .
The winner was a tall gangly type and the event was one in 99.46 which is poor for that event .
It will be interesting to me anyhow where they go next with that one as for sure its a slow horse who probably wants a stiff track .Somewhere like chepstow when the flat is back on .Certainly not lingfield or Chelmsforth. If it appears there one needs to be on the exchange and lay it.

GL