Electric car sales surge while traditional market stalls

CrankyHaus

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/electric-car-sales-surge-by-542-while-traditional-market-stalls-1.3811006


Nearly as many EV sales in Jan and Feb 2019 as in all of last year.



Is this true and part of a continuing trend, or overblown?


It would be interesting to see how many are company cars on 0% BIK. Can't see that lasting long if too many avail of it.

terrydel

CrankyHaus wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/electric-car-sales-surge-by-542-while-traditional-market-stalls-1.3811006


Nearly as many EV sales in Jan and Feb 2019 as in all of last year.



Is this true and part of a continuing trend, or overblown?


It would be interesting to see how many are company cars on 0% BIK. Can't see that lasting long if too many avail of it.

I'd say a lot of them are. I work in IT and I know lots of contractors taking this option.
Electric cars are still very much a middle class, lifestyle choice tho. Until they are affordable to the majority, that wont change.

slave1

Also, talk of garage stocking cars being included in "sales"....Kona EV being a good example, so possible overcounting as these are not sales to the public

colm_mcm

EVs were in short supply last year when my mate was looking at them. I’d be wary of MASSIVE percentage increases. There’s no denying they’re becoming more mainstream though.

Atlantic Dawn

It's not even 2% of total new car sales for that period, a complete disaster really if you were trying to make people switch over in this country.

Idbatterim

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

It's not even 2% of total new car sales for that period, a complete disaster really if you were trying to make people switch over in this country.

Ireland hardly influences everything. This is going to be a small snowball that is going to start growing very big, very quick !

NIMAN

Percentage increases can look impressive, but if you're coming from a low base then you need to start looking at actual figures.

Atlantic Dawn

Idbatterim wrote: »

Ireland hardly influences everything. This is going to be a small snowball that is going to start growing very big, very quick !

Yes but there's for the last 5 years plus good affordable electric cars along with an ok charging network yet people are not moving towards them. I think either free parking in city centres or use of the bus lanes is needed to bump them up, too much fear over them at the moment, lack of awareness of how good they can be.

Eoinbmw

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Yes but there's for the last 5 years plus good affordable electric cars along with an ok charging network yet people are not moving towards them. I think either free parking in city centres or use of the bus lanes is needed to bump them up, too much fear over them at the moment, lack of awareness of how good they can be.

why should they be allowed use bus lanes ?
If one cant afford to buy one why should they be put at a disadvantage?

MarkN

I don’t see it snowballing at all. Not anytime soon anyway! The average car user doesn’t even know what a hybrid is nevermind an EV and the amount of (understandable) ignorance towards these cars is huge. We’re car fans lads, you have to distance that from Mary and Frank who think the Ford Focus only launched 3 years ago.

sk8board

These EV numbers will increase rapidly once the range on a €30-40k car is at a level that people are comfortable with (600km+?), and the market infrastructure can support it.
A claimed 400km from a €49k Kona isn’t going to change the market, or tempt people out of a similarly priced 320d, but it’s certainly better than a €125k model S, which explains the 17 Tesla sales so far this year (barely 1% of the EV total, never mind the overall numbers).

The biggest delay on EV rollout is the pace and sheer cost of battery R&D investment, as seen by Tesla’s $10bn in accumulated R&D debt (another $950m paid out when a bond matured just yesterday. They have about $2.3bn left in cash reserve).

Look at the tie up last week between fierce rivals bmw and Daimler - they know the future is electric, they just can’t afford it and aren’t going to mortgage the farm to get there.

wassie

MarkN wrote: »

I don’t see it snowballing at all. Not anytime soon anyway!

Agreed. The market will only change significantly when changes in government policy hits the hip pocket of the motoring public.

Shefwedfan

BEV will not really have a massive impact till 2020

VW will announce its ID which is supposed to start at 25k but based on report it will be the 30k model sold first
Model 3 will come
Lots of VW other badge options
etc etc

MarkN

2020 is less than 10 months away, I just don’t see it. There’s no availability on the 3 sure!

Shefwedfan

MarkN wrote: »

2020 is less than 10 months away, I just don’t see it. There’s no availability on the 3 sure!

VW are converting a large plant, they will have at least 200-300k available in Europe alone.....


Nissan will have good supply of Leaf L62 as well.....


Peuget 208 which look good but supply is unsure



The rest will probably still struggle to supply

MarkN

I don’t doubt that but, I just don’t think ireland is properly ready. We’ve a handful of Tesla chargers for the country. Even hotels have them in Europe. Look at the entire region from Greystones to Rosslare, there’s no public chargers. People aren’t going to order cars on the basis of that!

Squidgy Black

MarkN wrote: »

I don’t doubt that but, I just don’t think ireland is properly ready. We’ve a handful of Tesla chargers for the country. Even hotels have them in Europe. Look at the entire region from Greystones to Rosslare, there’s no public chargers. People aren’t going to order cars on the basis of that!

There's a whole heap of hotels in Ireland listed as having destination charging https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/findus/list/chargers/Ireland

But yeah the lack of supercharging infrastructure in Ireland is a concern, I mean there's only 4 in the whole country.

lalababa

"Build it and they will come!"
I soundly predict a riot & by June 2023 everyone will be driving an EV except those of course that won't.
From telsa's law of dirivitive expotential magnetism a 500% surge in 2/12ths of a calendar year (discounting the surge to buy in Jan/Feb to impress the Joneses) entered into telsa's equation thus: 3.14(500)1.66666(4) /* #@™;©®¥√¶∆........ %=1000%
i.e. a 1000% rise in the phrase

"shur till all be electric in a few years ha?"

cnocbui

lalababa wrote: »

"Build it and they will come!"
I soundly predict a riot & by June 2023 everyone will be driving an EV except those of course that won't.
From telsa's law of dirivitive expotential magnetism a 500% surge in 2/12ths of a calendar year (discounting the surge to buy in Jan/Feb to impress the Joneses) entered into telsa's equation thus: 3.14(500)1.66666(4) /* #@™;©®¥√¶∆........ %=1000%
i.e. a 1000% rise in the phrase

"shur till all be electric in a few years ha?"

There isn't enough cobalt and the amount invested in the existing vehicle fleet is so great that consumers can't afford to throw a away their cars just because some loon carbonistas think it's a good idea. Just think of it - no trade in value - zero, but you expect everyone to just pony up for €35,000 cars out of their savings because their current car is worthless?

It's not going to happen by 2034, let alone in 4 years time.

Henry Ford III

If revenue from VAT/VRT & BIK starts to tail off or fall as seems likely the Government will begin to tax the EV's much harder.

What'll happen if the grants and subsidies are reduced?

CrankyHaus

Henry Ford III wrote: »

If revenue from VAT/VRT & BIK starts to tail off or fall as seems likely the Government will begin to tax the EV's much harder.

What'll happen if the grants and subsidies are reduced?

Aren't there other countries where this happened and EV sales tailed off?

If a switch to EVs helps the state lessen or even avoid EU fines for failure to meet emissions targets would the loss of tax be offset?

€600M by 2020 was the potential fines figure bandied about by the media. I don't really understand the process and have doubts about the figure or even whether any fine will be imposed. Nor am I convinced that EVs are the most cost effective way to quickly reduce carbon emissions (closing high polluting plants like Moneypoint seems way ahead as a priority). Nonetheless it's not a straightforward case of more EVs = fiscal hole.

lalababa

cnocbui wrote: »

There isn't enough cobalt and the amount invested in the existing vehicle fleet is so great that consumers can't afford to throw a away their cars just because some loon carbonistas think it's a good idea. Just think of it - no trade in value - zero, but you expect everyone to just pony up for €35,000 cars out of their savings because their current car is worthless?

It's not going to happen by 2034, let alone in 4 years time.

Cobalt smobalt, I repeat everyone in 4 years time will be driving EVs except those that won't.

Skylinehead

lalababa wrote: »

Cobalt smobalt, I repeat everyone in 4 years time will be driving EVs except those that won't.

Everyone will also be astronauts, except those that aren't.

wassie

Henry Ford III wrote: »

If revenue from VAT/VRT & BIK starts to tail off or fall as seems likely the Government will begin to tax the EV's much harder.

What'll happen if the grants and subsidies are reduced?

I have faith in our Government being up to the challenge to find alternative revenue streams in the face of a declining income from ICE cars......

Shefwedfan

Henry Ford III wrote: »

If revenue from VAT/VRT & BIK starts to tail off or fall as seems likely the Government will begin to tax the EV's much harder.

What'll happen if the grants and subsidies are reduced?

Of course, as soon as electric cars move into mainstream then the government will stop with incentives etc.....expect tax's to rise.....everyone knows this



For the moment based on the amount of "diesel till I die" drivers in Ireland I think I have another good few years letting someone else pay my tax's.....if only I could sell both car and have 2 electric then it would be perfect.....

Marcusm

Henry Ford III wrote: »

If revenue from VAT/VRT & BIK starts to tail off or fall as seems likely the Government will begin to tax the EV's much harder.

What'll happen if the grants and subsidies are reduced?

That “If” should read “When”. Plus you need to compensate for excise duty on fuel.

Shefwedfan

Marcusm wrote: »

That “If” should read “When”. Plus you need to compensate for excise duty on fuel.

Road tax will increase....they already had it out in press, more or less charge per km.....


All of this will come as I said once electric is mainstream....maybe 5 years? probably more with the amount of diesel import.

Eoinbmw

Interesting!
http://www.brusselstimes.com/business/technology/15050/electric-vehicles-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones,-german-study-shows?fbclid=IwAR2cQzND5Nirt_ftUQjDtLL_IBNDVnXS5jShvHQFO3H1Facjnq-y2MVLzCs

Shefwedfan

Eoinbmw wrote: »

Interesting!
http://www.brusselstimes.com/business/technology/15050/electric-vehicles-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones,-german-study-shows?fbclid=IwAR2cQzND5Nirt_ftUQjDtLL_IBNDVnXS5jShvHQFO3H1Facjnq-y2MVLzCs

Seemingly diesel and petrol just magically appear at the pumps and have no affect at all on the environment

They did not take into consideration the finding of oil, the drilling for oil, the shipment of oil, the refining of oil and the delivery of oil

Its been fired around the web by multiple sources and even petrol heads say its a pointless study