March 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

The usual questions and a bonus ...

1. IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature at any of the 25 locations and which location will record it? (7/10 points for temperature and 3/10 for location, superbonus of 2 or 1 available for 7+3 (2 pts added) or either 6+3, 7+2 (1 pt added). Location points, three only for right location or if nobody has that, closest location, and two for either of the two locations in 2nd and 3rd place for temperature, 1 point for location if in the right province (Malin Head would be included with the Connacht stations for this determination). Temperature points strictly rank order, equal numbers sharing eight score levels from 7 down to 0 (0 will get the fractional share if that is necessary). Ties will jog the numbers sharing to keep pace.

Good luck ... we haven't reviewed the late penalty for a while, my recollection being that it was to be 1 point deducted for each 3 hours late (including portions after a reasonable interval) with the deadline being 0300h of the 1st of the month (Friday, 1st March in this case). I intend to change this slightly to become 1 point per four hours late to 15z of 2nd then it would increase to one point per hour after that. Reason for reducing this slightly is that we are taking off points and not percentages which is the standard on another contest, so as a good score is 75, this will be an equal penalty in either case (3/4 as harsh on time for the 4/3 as punitive points vs %). Anyway, don't be late, problem eliminated altogether.

Normal _____ 6.8 __ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 (location pts by climate)

MTC ________7.2 __ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 Gurteen

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7___5.8__21.7__-7.0__115__115__9.8__Valentia

pauldry

Pauldry___7.8__19__-3.4__102__115__13__Valentia

sunflower3

Sunflower3_____ 7.0 __ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 90 ___ 14.0 (Mount Dillon)

Bsal

Bsal _____ 7.1 __ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 95 ___ 11.0 (Phoenix Park)

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ________6.3 __ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 Shannon Airport

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________6.3 __ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 Valentia

John mac

JOhn mac ________6.7 __ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 oak park

Joe Public

Joe Public ________5.3 __ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 80 ___ 12.1 Sherkin Island

dacogawa

Dacogawa___7.2__18.4__-4.4__160__082__12.2__Valentia

JCX BXC

JCXBXC_____ 7.0 __ 18 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 (Gurteen)

mickger844posts

mickger844posts___6.0__16.7__-3.0__120__88__11.8__Oak Park

bazlers

Bazlers. 7.3__18.8__-5__115__90__15 mullingar

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 7.8 ___ 18.5 ___ -3.2 ___ 125 ___ 95 ___ 13.5 Phoenix Park.

waterways

waterways ___ 7.5 ___ 19.5 ___ -3.5 ___ 117 ___ 93 ___ 12.7 Casement

mrskinner

Skinner..... 6.5_____16.1_____-4.1_____100_____100______12.5 Belmullet.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH___7.2__17.8__-4.6__105__95__9.3__Sherkin

Rikand

Rikand ____ 7.5 ___ 18.0 ___ -5.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 14.0 Mount Dillon

200motels

200motels. _6.1_16.9_-3.4_106__97_12.8__Oak Park

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 7.1 ___ 17.5 ___ -3.0 ___ 120 ___ 110 ___ 14.5 Mullingar.

adam240610

Adam240610___6.5_18.8_-3.3_105_95_14.4 Oak Park

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____ 6.9 __ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115___ 11.0 Shannon

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____ 7.3 __ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 94 ___ 10.3 Shannon

rameire

Rameire___7.0__18.9__-2.4__112__115__10.0 Casement

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March, 2019


FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island
_____________________________________________________________

*Locations for warmest on 17th ...

Oak Park, Valentia ____4
Shannon ___________ 3
Gurteen, Phoenix Park,
Casement, Mountdillon,
Mullingar, Sherkin ____ 2
Belmullet ___________ 1

__________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median, average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

pauldry

Rainfall could go minimum progression this month if the rains dont ease soon

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 6.1 C, which is 0.2 below average for the period.

MAX and MIN have not really been factors yet, will hunt them down if necessary.

PRC so far 320% of normal, which already guarantees a normal amount if 30% of normal falls from now to end of month.

SUN has opened up with 95% (569/600) of normal.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 6.3 with this week at 6.5, continuing the earlier trend at 0.2 below average.

MAX and MIN have not really been in play yet, I have not noticed any contenders anyway.

PRC continues very high, now at 285% with the past week 249% of normal. With no further rainfall this would guarantee 120% and there's another 10% of a month's worth in the forecast by Saturday evening so safe to say the outcome is likely to be building from a set 130%, if the trend is then rather dry, could end up in the 140-150 range. We have a forecast at 160% (Dacogawa) which could invoke the reduced minimum progression scenario. If that forecast gets 13/15 or more as a raw score, then all other boosts are reduced by half. The second highest forecast is 130% so for that to be the case, all other forecasts would be in need of a boost. So instead of just going off the usual rank ordered 15, 14, 13 etc, it would be something like 15, 10, 8, 7 etc.

SUN continues its earlier trend of near normal appearances, this past week (99%, 596/600) leaves the running average at 97% of normal.

It would appear that relatively low forecasts for the 17th will do best. The four lowest are 9.3 (DOCARCH), 9.8 (BLIZZARD7), then 10.0 (Rameire) with Tae laidir at 10.3.

Jpmarn

The answer to the Bonus Question is the Highest temperature for St. Patrick's Day 17 March and location is 11.8°C at Phoenix Park Station. There were quite a few stations maxing around 11°C but Shannon just got 10.0°C on St Patrick’s Day.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks and sorry that I'm a bit late getting to this bonus scoring, wonderful weather here for a change so I claim disorientation.

As mentioned above, 11.8 at Phoenix Park topped the list, a bit warmer than the pattern really deserved but what can you do? The second and third warmest readings (these count for two points in location) were 11.2 Belmullet and 11.1 Mountdillon. As the warmest reading was in Leinster, anyone who chose any location in Leinster gets one point (as neither Belmullet or Mountdillon are in Leinster, any location in Leinster other than Phoenix Park cannot get two points).

Scores will be as follows ... with superbonus and bonus points considered. It turned out that only Bsal qualified for one superbonus point with a score of 6 for temperature and 3 for the right location. None of the 2nd/3rd location winners had a top ranked temperature score which would have qualified them.


FORECASTER _________17th Max forecast _____ Temp _ Loc'n_superbonus_TOTAL


Bsal ________________ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park _____ 6 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 10

mickger844posts ______ 11.8 _ Oak Park ________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 8

MrSkinner ____________12.5 _ Belmullet ________ 6 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 8


___ Normal __________ 13.0_(PP likely by climate)_5 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 8


Kindred Spirit _________13.5 _ Phoenix Park ______4 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 7

Joe Public ____________12.1 _ Sherkin Island ____ 7 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 7

Dacogawa ____________12.2 _ Valentia _________7 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 7

waterways ___________ 12.7 _ Casement ________5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6

200motels ____________12.8 _ Oak Park ________ 5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6

Jpmarn ______________ 11.0 _ Shannon ________ 6 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 6


___ Con Sensus _______ 13.0 _ (PP 3rd choice) ___ 5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6


Pauldry ______________13.0 _ Valentia _________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 5

Rameire _____________ 10.0 _ Casement ________4 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 5

Rikand ______________ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon ______3 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 5

JCXBXC ______________13.0 _ Gurteen _________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 5

Sunflower3 ___________ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon _____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 5

Tae laidir ____________ 10.3 _ Shannon _________4 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 4

sryanbruen ___________ 14.0 _ Shannon ________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 3

BLIZZARD7 ____________9.8 _ Valentia _________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 3

DOCARCH ____________ 9.3 _ Sherkin __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2

Dasa29 ______________14.5 _ Mullingar _________1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2

Adam240610 _________ 14.4 _ Oak Park _________1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2

Artane2002 ___________14.3 _ Valentia _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.5 _ Gurteen _________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1

John mac ____________ 14.8 _ Oak Park _________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1

Bazlers ______________ 15.0 _ Mullingar ________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1

________________________________________________________________________

Well done to Bsal for the overall best forecast and to mickger844posts with the closest temperature (right on the mark) and also MrSkinner for a tied second for overall points with mickger844posts. Kindred Spirit was the only other forecaster (with Bsal) to pick Phoenix Park.

Jpmarn

Yesterday High temperature is 17°C in Moorepark Co. Cork. This high temperature will probably be beaten today especially in the Dublin area with the Airport and Phoenix Park reporting 17°C at 1300.

M.T. Cranium

MAX increased to 17.7 (PP) on 19th. MIN that I can locate is -1.6 C. Our lowest forecast is -2.4 (Rameire) followed by -2.8 (Tae laidir). Expecting lower readings this weekend perhaps, to reduce or eliminate need for minimum progression scoring on MIN.

IMT was 6.9 C after 20 days, full update tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT has climbed to 7.1, the past week averaged 8.7 C which is 1.6 above the normal value. This will likely fall back slightly through Monday then resume a bit of a climb, but will likely end up either 7.2 or 7.3 if forecasts are right.

MAX so far has been 17.7, it could be challenged next week, and MIN of -1.6 will come under pressure for the next three days, our highest forecast was -2.4.

PRC is now at 241% of normal, the past week was not quite as wet as the first two, with an average of 155% that included two stations below average. If no further rain falls in the month (today's small amounts included in this calculation) the amount already fallen will guarantee an outcome of 164% of normal. Model forecasts show only small amounts to come except for the 31st when timing might be an issue, so the outcome seems likely to be 170 to 180 per cent. The only thing left to settle is the full or partial aspect of the scoring boost (Dacogawa at 160% as explained earlier can be close enough to the final outcome to reduce all the scoring boosts).

SUN average has slumped down to 88% with this past week only 68% of normal (407/600). This will probably drift back towards a near normal finish, which will require about 125% of normal from today to the end of the month.

====================================================================

With the bonus question already scored, we can have a look at these early provisional scoring estimates which are based on the values discussed above, but full scoring boosts for PRC as I think it's less than 50-50 that further rainfall will be low enough to qualify Dacogawa for the beat down outcome.

Provisional scoring for March 2019

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus (17th warmest)

Estimated values ______ 7.3_17.7_-2.5_175_100 __ 11.8 PP ___ TOTAL SCORE



Tae laidir ____________ 25 _ 17 _ 17 _ 14*_ 09 ___ 4 ______ 86

Dasa29 ______________23 _ 18 _ 15 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 2 ______ 78

Kindred Spirit _________20 _ 12 _ 13 _ 13*_ 09 ___ 7 ______ 74

Bsal ________________ 23 _ 14 _ 15 _ 03*_ 09 ___10 ______ 74

Rameire ___ (-2) ______22 _ 08 _ 19 _ 08*_ 07 ___ 5 __69-2=67


___ Con Sensus ______ 22 _ 17 _ 05 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 6 ______ 67


Dacogawa ___________ 24 _ 13 _ 01 _ 15*_ 06 ___ 7 ______ 66

mickger844posts ______12 _ 10 _ 15 _ 12*_ 08 ___ 8 ______ 65

Sunflower3 __________ 22 _ 13 _ 05 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 6 ______ 62

JCXBXC _____________ 22 _ 17 _ 05 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 5 ______ 61

waterways ___________23 _ 02 _ 10 _ 10*_ 09 ___ 6 ______ 60

DOCARCH ___________ 24 _ 19 _ 00 _ 05*_ 09 ___ 2 ______ 59

John mac ____________19 _ 17 _ 08 _ 04*_ 09 ___ 1 ______ 58


Normal ______________20 _ 18 _ 00 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 8 ______ 58


200motels ___________13 _ 12 _ 11 _ 06*_ 09 ___ 6 ______ 57

Adam240610 _________17 _ 09 _ 12 _ 05*_ 09 ___ 2 ______ 54

Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 07 _ 11 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 5 ______ 53

Jpmarn _____________ 21 _ 12 _ 00 _ 08*_ 07 ___ 5 ______ 53

Rikand ______________23 _ 17 _ 00 _ 01*_ 06 ___ 5 ______ 52

Bazlers ______________25 _ 09 _ 00 _ 09*_ 08 ___ 1 ______ 52

M.T. Cranium _________24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 01*_ 07 ___ 1 ______ 50

sryanbruen __________ 15 _ 05 _ 04 _ 13*_ 09 ___ 3 ______ 49

Artane2002 __________ 15 _ 11 _ 00 _ 08*_ 10 ___ 2 ______ 46

MrSkinner ___________ 17 _ 04 _ 04 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 8 ______ 45

Joe Public ____________05 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 7 ______ 45

BLIZZARD7 __________ 10 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10*_ 07 ___ 3 ______ 30

---

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island

---

For the provisional scoring, about half the field can benefit from a higher MAX at the expense of the other half. All but Rameire can improve their MIN scores if the MIN drops below -2.5 and about a third can get a score, currently at zero (some need quite a drop for that). All but Dacogawa would lose about half their PRC score if that outcome is 167% or lower (to its lowest possible value of 164%).

The provisional scoring will be updated at any point where I think the estimated values are in need of revision. Then it will be revised to final scoring on or about 2nd April.

Tae laidir

Mullingar dipped to - 2.5 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Delighted that my provisional scoring guess was on the mark so no changes (yet) foreseen in the scoring posted. The lowest reading I noticed earlier today was zero, might be a rounded off minus something but not likely to move this new MIN of -2.5 -- still time for that to happen if skies clear up more on some future occasion (weekend was looking potentially rather cold).

As to min progression kicking in at low end of scoring, that won't happen in this case, with the top three quarters of scoring being valid, there's a sub-rule involved where one-third of the field must benefit, if we get a case like this where a few people have raw scores of zero but not one third of the field, then that's just luck of the draw. (edit, in fact there is one-third at zero, but some of those are zero raw score rather than zero outside the scoring range, so I feel that it's really a weak case for applying the mercy rule) ... anyway, If there were such a number, then the reduced min progression would kick in also at this value or probably any later revision, not enough gaps in the field to leave the maximum raw score below 18/20. (it is 19 at present). So that's why several (actually eight) scores are zero. (three of those would come into scoring range if MIN happens to drift down to -3). This has happened a few times in the past when the field splits into majority and minority camps on a given outcome.

The IMT as expected has remained stationary at 7.1 (it dropped from 7.12 to 7.06) after 24 days and so the provisional of 7.3 looks reasonable, it has little danger of going higher than that if the weekend is also colder than the next four days.

PRC behaving as expected also, SUN might need a lot of help to get back to normal, so those scores may need a review.

M.T. Cranium

Things are coming together as expected so no changes to provisional scoring needed yet. Today's MAX might nudge the current value of 17.7 up a bit. The IMT to yesterday was 7.10, today's warmth will likely push it towards 7.3 then it may slip back to 7.1 eventually. At 7.1 the listed scores will all need a two point adjustment except for dacogawa, DOCARCH and myself who will stay at the posted scores (7.2 still 0.1 out). For six who went 7.3 or warmer (Pauldry, Kindred spirit, waterways, Rikand, bazlers, tae laidir), it would be down 2 and for the rest it will be up two points. That PRC minimum progression situation seems to be pointing just outside the danger zone for most of us to receive a smaller boost, I estimate that we have a guaranteed 169% of normal even without any new amounts (and there won't be much). SUN is rapidly gaining back what it lost in week three and should make it back to 100% by Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 7.2 with this past week also 7.2 which is 0.2 below normal for the week. See yesterday's post for a discussion of what a final value of 7.1 will mean for scoring (2 point differences for most, zero change for three of us at 7.2).

MAX remained 17.7 with yesterday's top reading 17.3 at Shannon. Today looks as though it has not challenged and that will be it for MAX.

MIN as far as we know is -2.5 C. This could conceivably change on Sunday, chances seem less than 50-50.

PRC down to 185% of normal now with this past week just 15%, that being the small amount of rain on the 22nd mostly. I calculated that with zero additional rain we would finish at 168% of normal, as a slight amount may fall on Saturday at some locations, this could change to 169 or 170. It's just outside the 167% mark where Dacogawa could have dropped the hammer on us by reducing the field's minimum progression.

SUN did very well last week at 148% of normal (886/600) and this brings the monthly average up to 103%. My scoring estimate of 100% may need a tweak to 105% as reasonable amounts of sunshine are in the books for today already and should return on Sunday even if Saturday is rather cloudy. If that were the finishing value, scores would all change by one up or down, those going up would be Pauldry, rikand, MTC, dasa29, rameire, JPmarn, sryanbruen and BLIZZARD7.

The proposed changes to IMT and SUN in the provisional scoring would adjust the leaders' totals to 81 each for tae laidir and dasa29, bsal would be up one to 75 and kindred spirit down one to 73.

Changes are not large enough to bother reposting the table, so the final scoring will appear on 2nd (or 3rd if this coming Monday is a bank holiday, I don't know when bank holidays happen there but it seems to have been a while since the last one?) ... but with Easter approaching maybe there isn't one until late May I am guessing.

pauldry

-3c in Markree but how minus 3

N was it lower....

0c in Sligo town....so close for sure

M.T. Cranium

MIN will be -3.1 (Markree 31st) which will alter the scoring enough to post a revised table soon, but I will wait until my next visit when the IMT and PRC can be finalized from monthly data (not updated yet). The daily sunshine figures from 29th to 31st suggest that 105% will easily be reached and it may go a bit higher but most forecasts are in multiples of 5% so that may not be an issue unless it gets to 108%.

Most of us gained six more points thanks to MIN dropping but the leaders either stayed level (tae laidir) or gained four (dasa29). Rameire unfortunately drops by six points. A few of the MIN scores will remain zero (those forecasts lower than -5.0).

M.T. Cranium

The IMT finished on 7.2 C.

MAX 17.7, MIN -3.1.

PRC 168%

SUN estimate is confirmed at 110% of normal.

Bonus was already fully discussed and scored.

The following is the revised final scoring for March 2019

---

Updated Final scoring for March 2019

FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus (17th warmest)

Confirmed values ______7.2_17.7_-3.1_168_110 __ 11.8 PP ___ TOTAL SCORE



Dasa29 ______________24 _ 18 _ 19 _ 12*_ 10 ___ 2 ______ 85

Tae laidir ____________ 24 _ 17 _ 17 _ 14*_ 07 ___ 4 ______ 83

Kindred Spirit _________19 _ 12 _ 19 _ 13*_ 07 ___ 7 ______ 77

Bsal ________________ 24 _ 14 _ 19 _ 03*_ 07 ___10______ 77




___ Con Sensus ______ 23 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08*_ 07 ___ 6 ______ 72


Dacogawa ___________ 25 _ 13 _ 07 _ 15*_ 04 ___ 7 ______ 71

mickger844posts ______13 _ 10 _ 19 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 8 ______ 68

Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 13 _ 11 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 6 ______ 67

JCXBXC _____________ 23 _ 17 _ 11 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 5 ______ 66

Rameire ___ (-2) ______23 _ 08 _ 13 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 5 __66-2=64

waterways ___________22 _ 02 _ 16 _ 10*_ 07 ___ 6 ______ 63

DOCARCH ___________ 25 _ 19 _ 05 _ 05*_ 07 ___ 2 ______ 63

John mac ____________20 _ 17 _ 14 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 1 ______ 63

200motels ___________14 _ 12 _ 17 _ 06*_ 07 ___ 6 ______ 62

Pauldry _____________ 19 _ 07 _ 17 _ 03*_ 09 ___ 5 ______ 60

Jpmarn _____________ 22 _ 12 _ 04 _ 08*_ 09 ___ 5 ______ 60

Adam240610 _________18 _ 09 _ 18 _ 05*_ 07 ___ 2 ______ 59

M.T. Cranium _________25 _ 17 _ 06 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 1 ______ 59


Normal ______________21 _ 18 _ 01 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 8 ______ 58


sryanbruen __________ 16 _ 05 _ 10 _ 13*_ 09 ___ 3 ______ 56

Rikand ______________ 22 _ 17 _ 01 _ 01*_ 08 ___ 5 ______ 54

Bazlers ______________24 _ 09 _ 01 _ 09*_ 06 ___ 1 ______ 50

MrSkinner ___________ 18 _ 04 _ 10 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 8 ______ 50

Artane2002 __________16 _ 11 _ 03 _ 08*_ 08 ___ 2 ______ 48

Joe Public ____________06 _ 15 _ 00 _ 12*_ 04 ___ 7 ______ 44

BLIZZARD7 __________ 11 _ 00 _ 00 _ 10*_ 09 ___ 3 ______ 33

---

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island

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With the scores final now, congrats to Dasa29 and tae laidir for their high scores and also kindred spirit, Bsal for beating the Con senseless.

M.T. Cranium

The Monthly Summary confirmed the MAX and MIN and gave totals for SUN that caused a slight revision (table is edited and now final). The final SUN value was 110% of normal.

Will be posting the annual scoring update soon.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring summary January to March 2019


(rank) _ FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ 2019 TOTAL (and best 2/3)


_ 01 __ Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 ___ 218 ___ (153) _ 1

_ 02 __ Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 __ 67 ___ 211 ___ (144) _ 2

_t03 __ Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 ___ 197 ___ (141) _ 3

_t03 __ Kindred Spirit ___________58 __ 62 __ 77 ___ 197 ___ (139) _ 4

_ 05 __ DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 __ 63 ___ 194 ___ (131) _ 9t


_(06)__ Con Sensus_____________61 __ 57 __ 72 ___ 190 ___ (133) _(7t)


_ 06 __ Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 __ 59 ___ 187 ___ (128) _13

_ 07 __ JCX BXC _______________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 ___ 184 ___ (131) _ 9t

_ 08 __ Bsal ___________________47 __ 58 __ 77 ___ 182 ___ (135) _ 6

_ 09 __ mickger844posts ________ 65 __ 47 __ 68 ___ 180 ___ (133) _ 7t

_ 10 __ dasa29 ________________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 ___ 179 ___ (133) _ 7t

_ 11 __ 200motels ______________48 __ 68 __ 62 ___ 178 ___ (130) _11

_ 12 __ pauldry ________________ 55 __ 62 __ 60 ___ 177 ___ (122) _15t

_ 13 __ Rikand _________________62 __ 59 __ 54 ___ 175 ___ (121) _17

_ 14 __ john mac _______________49 __ 61 __ 63 ___ 173 ___ (124) _14

_t15 __ MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 __ 50 ___ 172 ___ (122) _15t

_t15 __ Jpmarn ________________ 69 __ 43 __ 60 ___ 172 ___ (129) _12


_(17)__ NormaL ________________49 __ 60 __ 58 ___ 167 ___ (118) _(19)


_ 17 __ Dacogawa ______________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 ___ 161 ___ (120) _18

_ 18 __ M.T. Cranium ____________45 __ 54 __ 59 ___ 158 ___ (113) _19

_ 19 __ waterways ______________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 ___ 157 ___ (138) _ 5

_ 20 __ Artane2002 _____________ 46 __ 60 __ 48 ___ 154 ___ (108) _20

_ 21 __ sryanbruen ______________41 __ 42 __ 56 ___ 139 ___ (098) _22

_ 22 __ Joe Public _______________62 __ 24 __ 44 ___ 130 ___ (106) _21

_ 23 __ sdanseo ________________ 45 __ 36 __ --- ____ 81 ___ (081) _23

_ 24 __ YanSno _________________62 __ --- __ --- ____ 62 ___ (062) _24

_ 25 __ BLIZZARD7 _____________ 18 __ --- __ 33 ____ 51 ___ (051) _25

_ 26 __ bazlers _________________ --- __ ---__ 50 ____ 50 ___ (050) _26

_ 27 __ Tazio __________________ --- __ 44 __ --- ____ 44 ___ (044) _27

_ 28 __ derekon ________________ 39 __ --- __ --- ____ 39 ___ (039) _28

_________________________________________________________________________

Congrats to Tae laidir for taking over the lead in the annual scoring, Sunflower3 now second and Rameire tied with Kindred spirit holding down third.

Some who are well down in the list are doing relatively well in the evolving "best ten of twelve" that forms the scoring for the contest near its final stages. For example waterways in 19th is ahead of most in that category. I have put the best two totals in brackets beside the totals so you can compare those to see where you really stand at this point. Everyone who entered April is still in the main contest, you're not out until you miss three months.