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March 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 25-02-2019 7:36pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The usual questions and a bonus ...

    1. IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

    2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

    3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

    4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature at any of the 25 locations and which location will record it? (7/10 points for temperature and 3/10 for location, superbonus of 2 or 1 available for 7+3 (2 pts added) or either 6+3, 7+2 (1 pt added). Location points, three only for right location or if nobody has that, closest location, and two for either of the two locations in 2nd and 3rd place for temperature, 1 point for location if in the right province (Malin Head would be included with the Connacht stations for this determination). Temperature points strictly rank order, equal numbers sharing eight score levels from 7 down to 0 (0 will get the fractional share if that is necessary). Ties will jog the numbers sharing to keep pace.

    Good luck ... we haven't reviewed the late penalty for a while, my recollection being that it was to be 1 point deducted for each 3 hours late (including portions after a reasonable interval) with the deadline being 0300h of the 1st of the month (Friday, 1st March in this case). I intend to change this slightly to become 1 point per four hours late to 15z of 2nd then it would increase to one point per hour after that. Reason for reducing this slightly is that we are taking off points and not percentages which is the standard on another contest, so as a good score is 75, this will be an equal penalty in either case (3/4 as harsh on time for the 4/3 as punitive points vs %). Anyway, don't be late, problem eliminated altogether.

    Normal _____ 6.8 __ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 (location pts by climate)

    MTC ________7.2 __ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 Gurteen


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7___5.8__21.7__-7.0__115__115__9.8__Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry___7.8__19__-3.4__102__115__13__Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3_____ 7.0 __ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 90 ___ 14.0 (Mount Dillon)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _____ 7.1 __ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 95 ___ 11.0 (Phoenix Park)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ________6.3 __ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 Shannon Airport

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ________6.3 __ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    JOhn mac ________6.7 __ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 oak park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ________5.3 __ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 80 ___ 12.1 Sherkin Island


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa___7.2__18.4__-4.4__160__082__12.2__Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC_____ 7.0 __ 18 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 (Gurteen)


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts___6.0__16.7__-3.0__120__88__11.8__Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Bazlers. 7.3__18.8__-5__115__90__15 mullingar


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 7.8 ___ 18.5 ___ -3.2 ___ 125 ___ 95 ___ 13.5 Phoenix Park.


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 7.5 ___ 19.5 ___ -3.5 ___ 117 ___ 93 ___ 12.7 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner..... 6.5_____16.1_____-4.1_____100_____100______12.5 Belmullet.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH___7.2__17.8__-4.6__105__95__9.3__Sherkin


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 7.5 ___ 18.0 ___ -5.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 14.0 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels. _6.1_16.9_-3.4_106__97_12.8__Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ___ 7.1 ___ 17.5 ___ -3.0 ___ 120 ___ 110 ___ 14.5 Mullingar.


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___6.5_18.8_-3.3_105_95_14.4 Oak Park


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _____ 6.9 __ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115___ 11.0 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _____ 7.3 __ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 94 ___ 10.3 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,760 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire___7.0__18.9__-2.4__112__115__10.0 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for March, 2019


    FORECASTER _________IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (17th warmest)


    Pauldry ______________7.8 _ 19.0 _ -3.4 _ 102 _ 115 ___ 13.0 _ Valentia

    Kindred Spirit _________7.8 _ 18.5 _ -3.2 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 13.5 _ Phoenix Park

    waterways ___________ 7.5 _ 19.5 _ -3.5 _ 117 _ 093 ___ 12.7 _ Casement

    Rikand ______________ 7.5 _ 18.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

    Bazlers ______________ 7.3 _ 18.8 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 15.0 _ Mullingar

    Tae laidir _____________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -2.8 _ 133 _ 094 ___ 10.3 _ Shannon

    Dacogawa ____________7.2 _ 18.4 _ -4.4 _ 160 _ 082 ___ 12.2 _ Valentia

    M.T. Cranium _________ 7.2 _ 18.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.5 _ Gurteen

    DOCARCH ____________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -4.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 9.3 _ Sherkin

    Dasa29 ______________ 7.1 _ 17.5 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mullingar

    Bsal _________________7.1 _ 17.1 _ -3.0 _ 102 _ 095 ___ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park

    Rameire ___ (-2) ______ 7.0 _ 18.9 _ -2.4 _ 112 _ 115 ___ 10.0 _ Casement


    Con Sensus ___________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 13.0 _ (based on locations chosen)*


    JCXBXC ______________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ Gurteen

    Sunflower3 ___________7.0 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon

    Jpmarn ______________6.9 _ 18.5 _ -4.7 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 11.0 _ Shannon


    Normal ______________ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.0 _ location pts by climate


    John mac ____________ 6.7 _ 18.0 _ -3.7 _ 104 _ 097 ___ 14.8 _ Oak Park

    Adam240610 _________ 6.5 _ 18.8 _ -3.3 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14.4 _ Oak Park

    MrSkinner ____________6.5 _ 16.1 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.5 _ Belmullet

    Artane2002 ___________6.3 _ 16.8 _ -4.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.3 _ Valentia

    sryanbruen ___________6.3 _ 16.2 _ -4.1 _ 130 _ 105 ___ 14.0 _ Shannon

    200motels ____________6.1 _ 16.9 _ -3.4 _ 106 _ 097 ___ 12.8 _ Oak Park

    mickger844posts ______ 6.0 _ 16.7 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 088 ___ 11.8 _ Oak Park

    BLIZZARD7 ___________5.8 _ 21.7 _ -7.0 _ 115 _ 115 ____ 9.8 _ Valentia

    Joe Public ____________ 5.3 _ 17.2 _ -7.5 _ 121 _ 080 ___ 12.1 _ Sherkin Island
    _____________________________________________________________

    *Locations for warmest on 17th ...

    Oak Park, Valentia ____4
    Shannon ___________ 3
    Gurteen, Phoenix Park,
    Casement, Mountdillon,
    Mullingar, Sherkin ____ 2
    Belmullet ___________ 1

    __________________________________________________

    Con Sensus is median, average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Rainfall could go minimum progression this month if the rains dont ease soon


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 6.1 C, which is 0.2 below average for the period.

    MAX and MIN have not really been factors yet, will hunt them down if necessary.

    PRC so far 320% of normal, which already guarantees a normal amount if 30% of normal falls from now to end of month.

    SUN has opened up with 95% (569/600) of normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 6.3 with this week at 6.5, continuing the earlier trend at 0.2 below average.

    MAX and MIN have not really been in play yet, I have not noticed any contenders anyway.

    PRC continues very high, now at 285% with the past week 249% of normal. With no further rainfall this would guarantee 120% and there's another 10% of a month's worth in the forecast by Saturday evening so safe to say the outcome is likely to be building from a set 130%, if the trend is then rather dry, could end up in the 140-150 range. We have a forecast at 160% (Dacogawa) which could invoke the reduced minimum progression scenario. If that forecast gets 13/15 or more as a raw score, then all other boosts are reduced by half. The second highest forecast is 130% so for that to be the case, all other forecasts would be in need of a boost. So instead of just going off the usual rank ordered 15, 14, 13 etc, it would be something like 15, 10, 8, 7 etc.

    SUN continues its earlier trend of near normal appearances, this past week (99%, 596/600) leaves the running average at 97% of normal.

    It would appear that relatively low forecasts for the 17th will do best. The four lowest are 9.3 (DOCARCH), 9.8 (BLIZZARD7), then 10.0 (Rameire) with Tae laidir at 10.3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    The answer to the Bonus Question is the Highest temperature for St. Patrick's Day 17 March and location is 11.8°C at Phoenix Park Station. There were quite a few stations maxing around 11°C but Shannon just got 10.0°C on St Patrick’s Day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,202 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Thanks and sorry that I'm a bit late getting to this bonus scoring, wonderful weather here for a change so I claim disorientation.

    As mentioned above, 11.8 at Phoenix Park topped the list, a bit warmer than the pattern really deserved but what can you do? The second and third warmest readings (these count for two points in location) were 11.2 Belmullet and 11.1 Mountdillon. As the warmest reading was in Leinster, anyone who chose any location in Leinster gets one point (as neither Belmullet or Mountdillon are in Leinster, any location in Leinster other than Phoenix Park cannot get two points).

    Scores will be as follows ... with superbonus and bonus points considered. It turned out that only Bsal qualified for one superbonus point with a score of 6 for temperature and 3 for the right location. None of the 2nd/3rd location winners had a top ranked temperature score which would have qualified them.


    FORECASTER _________17th Max forecast _____ Temp _ Loc'n_superbonus_TOTAL


    Bsal ________________ 11.0 _ Phoenix Park _____ 6 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 10

    mickger844posts ______ 11.8 _ Oak Park ________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 8

    MrSkinner ____________12.5 _ Belmullet ________ 6 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 8


    ___ Normal __________ 13.0_(PP likely by climate)_5 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 8


    Kindred Spirit _________13.5 _ Phoenix Park ______4 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 7

    Joe Public ____________12.1 _ Sherkin Island ____ 7 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 7

    Dacogawa ____________12.2 _ Valentia _________7 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 7

    waterways ___________ 12.7 _ Casement ________5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6

    200motels ____________12.8 _ Oak Park ________ 5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6

    Jpmarn ______________ 11.0 _ Shannon ________ 6 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 6


    ___ Con Sensus _______ 13.0 _ (PP 3rd choice) ___ 5 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 6


    Pauldry ______________13.0 _ Valentia _________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 5

    Rameire _____________ 10.0 _ Casement ________4 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 5

    Rikand ______________ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon ______3 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 5

    JCXBXC ______________13.0 _ Gurteen _________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 5

    Sunflower3 ___________ 14.0 _ Mount Dillon _____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 5

    Tae laidir ____________ 10.3 _ Shannon _________4 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 4

    sryanbruen ___________ 14.0 _ Shannon ________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 3

    BLIZZARD7 ____________9.8 _ Valentia _________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 3

    DOCARCH ____________ 9.3 _ Sherkin __________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2

    Dasa29 ______________14.5 _ Mullingar _________1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2

    Adam240610 _________ 14.4 _ Oak Park _________1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2

    Artane2002 ___________14.3 _ Valentia _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2

    M.T. Cranium _________ 14.5 _ Gurteen _________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1

    John mac ____________ 14.8 _ Oak Park _________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1

    Bazlers ______________ 15.0 _ Mullingar ________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1

    ________________________________________________________________________

    Well done to Bsal for the overall best forecast and to mickger844posts with the closest temperature (right on the mark) and also MrSkinner for a tied second for overall points with mickger844posts. Kindred Spirit was the only other forecaster (with Bsal) to pick Phoenix Park.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Yesterday High temperature is 17°C in Moorepark Co. Cork. This high temperature will probably be beaten today especially in the Dublin area with the Airport and Phoenix Park reporting 17°C at 1300.


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