Is Dairy Expansion Ending

Bass Reeves

Reading today in the FI there was two article hinting we have reached the end of Dairy expansion. Not only that we may have to see a reduction in dairy cow numbers. While one article hinted it might be suckler cow numbers it is interesting to see tha the department may intend tightening some of the rules regarding nitrates. Some of the reductions suggested

Restrictions on the use of hill land to balance stocking numbers
Reduction of overall organic Nitrogen limits from 250kg/HA to 220kgs/HA
Increase of dairy cow from 80kg to 100kg/year.
All slurry tanks to be covered
Trailing shoe for all spreading of slurry on dairy farms.

While some farmers are celebrating that the CAP will not be finalized this year maybe it will not be to dairy farmers advantage if it goes into 2021/2022 before it is reorganized. Some of the tweaks are within the department scope such as the renting of poorer land a distance away. This may also see the end of exporting slurry on paper only.The organic nitrogen limits will be set at EU level more than likely but will all these outside cubicle units may have to be roofed or the tanks taking all the run off covered I wonder would a tent do over an outside tank.

While the removal of hill ground may drive conacre or leased ground crazy in the short term dairy farmers will have to be aware the 60K limit of SFP. This may limit the scope to pay for leases where SFP is factored into the agreement. Even in the short term this could see a defacto stocking level of 3 cows/HA not the 4-5 we are hearing of some lands running and even higher rates on milking platforms

Mooooo

Trailing shoe and that will be likely for all farms regardless of stocking rate. With regard to stocking rate of the whole farm, the vast majority would be at 3 to the ha or below when silage ground and young stock ground is taken in to account. All the comments of being stocked higher are nearly always just the milking platform and most articles tend to omitt the rest of the farm. The biggest issues will be labour and succession and then land cost, whether or not land cost will "correct" in our lifeltimes or not i dunno.

Timmaay

Still loads of expansion to come in the Leinster area I think, from tillage conversions, and then in connacht from beef and sheep. The likes of low emissions slurry spreading, use of protected urea etc are very low hanging fruit and can be easily implemented. Dropping the nitrates from 250 to 220 won't effect a massive number of farms, most lads I know are only in around the 200. Changing a dairycow from 85kg to 100kg I would question however, yep if she is a 700kg mature elephant of a HO, but you surely cannot lump like a br Fr or jex into that bracket also??

jaymla627

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Reading today in the FI there was two article hinting we have reached the end of Dairy expansion. Not only that we may have to see a reduction in dairy cow numbers. While one article hinted it might be suckler cow numbers it is interesting to see tha the department may intend tightening some of the rules regarding nitrates. Some of the reductions suggested

Restrictions on the use of hill land to balance stocking numbers
Reduction of overall organic Nitrogen limits from 250kg/HA to 220kgs/HA
Increase of dairy cow from 80kg to 100kg/year.
All slurry tanks to be covered
Trailing shoe for all spreading of slurry on dairy farms.

While some farmers are celebrating that the CAP will not be finalized this year maybe it will not be to dairy farmers advantage if it goes into 2021/2022 before it is reorganized. Some of the tweaks are within the department scope such as the renting of poorer land a distance away. This may also see the end of exporting slurry on paper only.The organic nitrogen limits will be set at EU level more than likely but will all these outside cubicle units may have to be roofed or the tanks taking all the run off covered I wonder would a tent do over an outside tank.

While the removal of hill ground may drive conacre or leased ground crazy in the short term dairy farmers will have to be aware the 60K limit of SFP. This may limit the scope to pay for leases where SFP is factored into the agreement. Even in the short term this could see a defacto stocking level of 3 cows/HA not the 4-5 we are hearing of some lands running and even higher rates on milking platforms

If as much thought was put into sorting out waste water and sewerage from the human population of Ireland and the goverment/local authorites had to actually abide by european regulations and guidelines, it would help alot more then sharpening the pitchforks for expanding dairy farmers...
You"ll see dairy farmers forgoing the sfp and simply working away without it going forward, dont bother submitting any sfp details here anymore and the letters re my nitratres limits been exceeded and 200% sfp fines have stopped

older by the day

If you were getting a 200% of a single payment fine over nitrate limits, i wonder is that sustainable?

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Reading today in the FI there was two article hinting we have reached the end of Dairy expansion. Not only that we may have to see a reduction in dairy cow numbers. While one article hinted it might be suckler cow numbers it is interesting to see tha the department may intend tightening some of the rules regarding nitrates. Some of the reductions suggested

Restrictions on the use of hill land to balance stocking numbers
Reduction of overall organic Nitrogen limits from 250kg/HA to 220kgs/HA
Increase of dairy cow from 80kg to 100kg/year.
All slurry tanks to be covered
Trailing shoe for all spreading of slurry on dairy farms.

While some farmers are celebrating that the CAP will not be finalized this year maybe it will not be to dairy farmers advantage if it goes into 2021/2022 before it is reorganized. Some of the tweaks are within the department scope such as the renting of poorer land a distance away. This may also see the end of exporting slurry on paper only.The organic nitrogen limits will be set at EU level more than likely but will all these outside cubicle units may have to be roofed or the tanks taking all the run off covered I wonder would a tent do over an outside tank.

While the removal of hill ground may drive conacre or leased ground crazy in the short term dairy farmers will have to be aware the 60K limit of SFP. This may limit the scope to pay for leases where SFP is factored into the agreement. Even in the short term this could see a defacto stocking level of 3 cows/HA not the 4-5 we are hearing of some lands running and even higher rates on milking platforms

I doubt it, apparently skim milk powder is being brought into Ireland for infant formula so there's still plenty scope for expansion
Hope you're right about CAP being extended to 2022

jaymla627

Timmaay wrote: »

Still loads of expansion to come in the Leinster area I think, from tillage conversions, and then in connacht from beef and sheep. The likes of low emissions slurry spreading, use of protected urea etc are very low hanging fruit and can be easily implemented. Dropping the nitrates from 250 to 220 won't effect a massive number of farms, most lads I know are only in around the 200. Changing a dairycow from 85kg to 100kg I would question however, yep if she is a 700kg mature elephant of a HO, but you surely cannot lump like a br Fr or jex into that bracket also??

The myth that grass based cows are more enviromentally friendly is somethig teagasc dreamed up thats been rubbished in alot of research, when you see cows been able to **** throw the eye of a needle for most of the year on grass based diets and milk ureas up in the clouds it tells its own story

Timmaay

jaymla627 wrote: »

The myth that grass based cows are more enviromentally friendly is somethig teagasc dreamed up thats been rubbished in alot of research, when you see cows been able to **** throw the eye of a needle for most of the year on grass based diets and milk ureas up in the clouds it tells its own story

I've never said that. And I don't disagree that super high urea levels are in any way good. However there is a massive difference between a 500kg jex/br Fr and a 700kg Ho let's face it.

Keep Sluicing

A fair few in my area are still driving on expanding. I was surprised at the amount of coversion from beef/suckler to dairy happening this year too. Lots more cows being milked in my area in 2019 compared to 2018

Gawddawggonnit

jaymla627 wrote: »

If as much thought was put into sorting out waste water and sewerage from the human population of Ireland and the goverment/local authorites had to actually abide by european regulations and guidelines, it would help alot more then sharpening the pitchforks for expanding dairy farmers...
You"ll see dairy farmers forgoing the sfp and simply working away without it going forward, dont bother submitting any sfp details here anymore and the letters re my nitratres limits been exceeded and 200% sfp fines have stopped

+1.
It’s unfair and even draconian that farmers are being penalized while local authorities carry on like environmental bandits.
There’s plenty room for expansion in the dairy industry. Didn’t the Coops invest in lots of extra capacity?

Looking at things here, there’s a flood of farmers exiting dairy due to labor and succession issues. Lots leaving in Germany also. I’m supplying a small coop of 1100 suppliers and it’s short on 88million litres of milk for 2018. Fines are being paid on the shortfall as it was contracted milk...
There’s a 135ha dairy farm for sale very close by and the son won’t touch the farm because he’s on €4K/mth for a 35hr week. Could you blame him?
Overall volumes mightn’t change much because there’s plenty of farms expanding but they’re fairly well nailed on environmental regs.

Gawddawggonnit

jaymla627 wrote: »

The myth that grass based cows are more enviromentally friendly is somethig teagasc dreamed up thats been rubbished in alot of research, when you see cows been able to **** throw the eye of a needle for most of the year on grass based diets and milk ureas up in the clouds it tells its own story

Interestingly if I was to leave cows indoors 24/7 I’d have more scope with artificial nitrogen...Go figure.

_Brian

As regards some sort of environmental constraints being implemented I’d imagine someone thinking of expanding should do so sooner rather than later.

The beef sector is entering a correction that in itself will reduce cow numbers.

Bass Reeves

_Brian wrote: »

As regards some sort of environmental constraints being implemented I’d imagine someone thinking of expanding should do so sooner rather than later.

The beef sector is entering a correction that in itself will reduce cow numbers.

I would not be of quite that opinion. If a dairy farmer is considering expanding I think he would need to be aware of the constraints. At present the defacto limits are 3 cows/HA if nitrates limits change they could go below 2.5 cows/HA. Land will become the new quota IMO. I actually think change may come in faster after the next EU elections. The British might not be there to limit some changes. We already saw Holland having to reduce numbers. As well the 60K limit on SFP will have to be factored in to calculations.

There is no point in thinking that one dairy cow will be treated different to another. All will be tarred the same when it happens. As those advocating low cost outside cubicle and tanks should be careful of the finiancial position they may put some young farmers into. If covered tanks etc are required within the next 8-10 years putting in outside cubicle and lagoons may cause finiancial problems to these farmers. It may make some lease's uneconomical to put green field dairy units on. Those that consider working outside the SFP system may find that this is not possible County Councils will be on top of this as well. Planning for lagoons and ouside cubicle may become an issue as well as farmers being required to adhere to SFP regs whether drawing these payments or not

mahoney_j

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not be of quite that opinion. If a dairy farmer is considering expanding I think he would need to be aware of the constraints. At present the defacto limits are 3 cows/HA if nitrates limits change they could go below 2.5 cows/HA. Land will become the new quota IMO. I actually think change may come in faster after the next EU elections. The British might not be there to limit some changes. We already saw Holland having to reduce numbers. As well the 60K limit on SFP will have to be factored in to calculations.

There is no point in thinking that one dairy cow will be treated different to another. All will be tarred the same when it happens. As those advocating low cost outside cubicle and tanks should be careful of the finiancial position they pit some young farmers into

Which is why over next 10 or so years there is going to be a swing back to higher production cows and less or maintain current cows per he .tegasc don’t seem to be very forward thinking on environmental regs the way they are pushing a supposed low cost grass model ......,Tim on your point about having different limits for different cows can’t see it happening

jaymla627

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not be of quite that opinion. If a dairy farmer is considering expanding I think he would need to be aware of the constraints. At present the defacto limits are 3 cows/HA if nitrates limits change they could go below 2.5 cows/HA. Land will become the new quota IMO. I actually think change may come in faster after the next EU elections. The British might not be there to limit some changes. We already saw Holland having to reduce numbers. As well the 60K limit on SFP will have to be factored in to calculations.

There is no point in thinking that one dairy cow will be treated different to another. All will be tarred the same when it happens. As those advocating low cost outside cubicle and tanks should be careful of the finiancial position they may put some young farmers into. If covered tanks etc are required within the next 8-10 years putting in outside cubicle and lagoons may cause finiancial problems to these farmers. It may make some lease's uneconomical to put green field dairy units on. Those that consider working outside the SFP system may find that this is not possible County Councils will be on top of this as well. Planning for lagoons and ouside cubicle may become an issue as well as farmers being required to adhere to SFP regs whether drawing these payments or not

It would be under 2cows/ha if it was put back at 170kgs/ha and youngstock are taken into account, on the council issue if a herd was to be housed 365 with slurry our solid manure gone through a seperator and exported to neighbouring tillage farmers they couldnt touch you, but the teagasc blue-print of low cost grass based dairying with the milking platform stocked to the hilt and a derogation needed to achieve this isnt going to be allowed going forward

stretch film

mahoney_j wrote: »

Which is why over next 10 or so years there is going to be a swing back to higher production cows and less or maintain current cows per he .tegasc don’t seem to be very forward thinking on environmental regs the way they are pushing a supposed low cost grass model ......,Tim on your point about having different limits for different cows can’t see it happening

well theres less going in so there must be less coming out wouldnt you say..........
same rationale applies already younger(lighter) stock at 57 and 21kgs already

einn32

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

+1.
It’s unfair and even draconian that farmers are being penalized while local authorities carry on like environmental bandits.
There’s plenty room for expansion in the dairy industry. Didn’t the Coops invest in lots of extra capacity?

Looking at things here, there’s a flood of farmers exiting dairy due to labor and succession issues. Lots leaving in Germany also. I’m supplying a small coop of 1100 suppliers and it’s short on 88million litres of milk for 2018. Fines are being paid on the shortfall as it was contracted milk...
There’s a 135ha dairy farm for sale very close by and the son won’t touch the farm because he’s on €4K/mth for a 35hr week. Could you blame him?
Overall volumes mightn’t change much because there’s plenty of farms expanding but they’re fairly well nailed on environmental regs.

Lot of interest in robots now and all I hear is I can't get anyone to milk the cows. You can't blame people because there are easier ways to make a decent wage. I guess the industry is just going to have to deal with it because I can't see the labour shortage being sorted.

I think the expansion will continue in some areas but nothing like what's happening in the last few years. I think last spring has hurt a lot of expansion wishes.

yosemitesam1

stretch film wrote: »

well theres less going in so there must be less coming out wouldnt you say..........
same rationale applies already younger(lighter) stock at 57 and 21kgs already

The difference would be fairly small.
An extra tonne of meal fed would be 25kg of n, 100kg extra protein delivered would take 16kg of that n.
Grass would have around 35-40kg/n per tonne, so a small bit of substitution and it'd be even

K.G.

the end of the world is coming............sometime

Panch18

Fellas pay far too much attention to the big tillage farm that is converted and think this is the reason for the dairy expansion

The fact is the majority of the expansion has come from existing dairy farmers who have expanded their herds. I would say that the majority of dairy farmers are now reaching the max of what they can handle from a land and/or labour point of view

So naturally since the quota is gone a few years now the big surge in cows numbers has happened and now it will be a more gradual process or even no more increase

bogman_bass

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not be of quite that opinion. If a dairy farmer is considering expanding I think he would need to be aware of the constraints. At present the defacto limits are 3 cows/HA if nitrates limits change they could go below 2.5 cows/HA. Land will become the new quota IMO. I actually think change may come in faster after the next EU elections. The British might not be there to limit some changes. We already saw Holland having to reduce numbers. As well the 60K limit on SFP will have to be factored in to calculations.

There is no point in thinking that one dairy cow will be treated different to another. All will be tarred the same when it happens. As those advocating low cost outside cubicle and tanks should be careful of the finiancial position they may put some young farmers into. If covered tanks etc are required within the next 8-10 years putting in outside cubicle and lagoons may cause finiancial problems to these farmers. It may make some lease's uneconomical to put green field dairy units on. Those that consider working outside the SFP system may find that this is not possible County Councils will be on top of this as well. Planning for lagoons and ouside cubicle may become an issue as well as farmers being required to adhere to SFP regs whether drawing these payments or not

I think it’s more likely that any new tanks will have to be covered as opposed to retrofitting existing tanks

Grueller

jaymla627 wrote: »

It would be under 2cows/ha if it was put back at 170kgs/ha and youngstock are taken into account, on the council issue if a herd was to be housed 365 with slurry our solid manure gone through a seperator and exported to neighbouring tillage farmers they couldnt touch you, but the teagasc blue-print of low cost grass based dairying with the milking platform stocked to the hilt and a derogation needed to achieve this isnt going to be allowed going forward

This could also make use of the reduced beef sector by opening up contract rearing as an option or even a necessity for the dairy man.

Dakota Dan

bogman_bass wrote: »

I think it’s more likely that any new tanks will have to be covered as opposed to retrofitting existing tanks

They were giving grants for lined open slurry lagoons not so long ago, how would you cover one of them? Especially the million gallon plus tanks. You can get a floating cover but it’s hard to imagine how they’d work.

davidk1394

Around here the expansion has slowed down and there are not many new entrants.

farawaygrass

davidk1394 wrote: »

Around here the expansion has slowed down and there are not many new entrants.

Did you convert to dairying Davidk?

davidk1394

farawaygrass wrote: »

Did you convert to dairying Davidk?

I’ve the first lot of heifer calf’s bought. Aim is to have 60 dairy animals by the end of the year and have 80 calving down

older by the day

What's the value of a Holstein freisan ai bred heifer calf. Lets say dam around 470 kg solids. I could do with a few, but I see 400 euro on DD. sher a maiden heifer at 8 would be cheaper