Saturday 5th January

La danseuse au cheval

I reckon Caro Des Flos is worth an E/W in the 13:35 at Wincanton.

Goldcupfav

Drummer Jack 4.45 Kempton.

dclifford

La danseuse au cheval wrote: »

I reckon Caro Des Flos is worth an E/W in the 13:35 at Wincanton.

Non Runner

ON ZEE BRIDLE

New 12.55- Lord of the Rock win 3/1

Francie Barrett

Sand 3:25 - Eragon De Chanay at 11/1 should have a decent chance given track and conditions. 10lb claimer could just give it the edge it needs.

Francie Barrett

1:35 - can't be having Kapcorse at such a short price and reckon Johnson's horse will over turn it at 11/4.

longshotvalue

Sandown 3:00

I’ve missed the price slightly but i think Halo Moon is pretty short to get involved here. He is on a decent mark and ran well in a similar race last year. He is getting a fair amount of weight from everything

1 Pt EW 28/1 6 places SKY 25/1 @paddypower

Wincanton 2:40

I don’t need a lot of encouragement to go for a 3 figure price. Gallic Destiny was a decent flat horse and probably went to high in handicap mark before a few bad runs and a long time of the track. He ran with a tiny bit of promise on his first run back and if he improved it’s not totally out of the question he can get involved of this mark. 100/1 makes with worthwhile especially with the extra places on offer in most bookies.

1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 80/1 4 places elsewhere

3:25 Sandown

Eragon De Chanay looks a bit overpriced here given his course record. He is 2-3 here and is a decent price because of a poor run here last time out. Ill forgive him that run for the 10/1 in this race.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Cork 1:55

This looks a step down in class for Jett, along with going back over hurdles a stone lower than his chase mark. Surly he has to go close here and 14/1 is very big.

2 Points win 14/1lads/vc/coral/boyles

Francie Barrett

Sandown 12:15 - Fukutoo, How'd they get away with that one

akelly02

Theatre guide is my nap in the veterans , get 6 places in powers and get in the Q to collect

maximo31

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Sandown 12:15 - Fukutoo, How'd they get away with that one

Japanese for sweating or something like that!:)

RivetingRoger

Two ew bets today. Both @ 16/1.....Pete the feat and ball darc

Shemale

Only one opponent for Laurina, sad state of affairs

Auroras_encore

No mare will touch her this season anyway, is she good enough for the ch only one way to find out

Angliru

Send Laurina over fences next year, looks like she's already been schooled.

RivetingRoger

Laurina is a monster. Wont be beaten this year

RivetingRoger

Ball Darc finished

Shemale

Auroras_encore wrote: »

No mare will touch her this season anyway, is she good enough for the ch only one way to find out

They should throw her in, with her allowance she should go close, looks absolute class

Francie Barrett

Lads, very early to be popping the champagne corks on Laurina, it ran against a complete tree today.

Shemale

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lads, very early to be popping the champagne corks on Laurina, it ran against a complete tree today.

I always thought she looked class, today was never going to change my view. Very short for the Champion as it is though.

Kilfenora has been in my tracker a while 3:05 Cork, money coming in for it now

NaiveMelodies

Buywise at 25s seems far too big!

NaiveMelodies

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Buywise at 25s seems far too big!

Unlucky....very unlucky. I think he was going to go close

akelly02

akelly02 wrote: »

Theatre guide is my nap in the veterans , get 6 places in powers and get in the Q to collect

Ah yea

Shemale

Shemale wrote: »

Kilfenora has been in my tracker a while 3:05 Cork, money coming in for it now

And delete, was going to back the winner til I saw this bollox getting backed. :rolleyes:

NaiveMelodies

TheTorment wrote: »

Unlucky....very unlucky. I think he was going to go close

Made 5 lengths up between last two. Thought he wpuld have won handily tbh.
Hard to believe the price of him though.

Auroras_encore

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lads, very early to be popping the champagne corks on Laurina, it ran against a complete tree today.

I wish I owned that "tree"

RivetingRoger

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Lads, very early to be popping the champagne corks on Laurina, it ran against a complete tree today.

One fair ignorant comment. Did u see either of its last 2 runs? 😛

NaiveMelodies

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Made 5 lengths up between last two. Thought he wpuld have won handily tbh.
Hard to believe the price of him though.

Adam Wedge certainly thought so there!

paddyisreal

RivetingRoger wrote: »

One fair ignorant comment. Did u see either of its last 2 runs? 😛

Beat trees in all of its races so far, wouldnt touch it on fast, good ground if its entered in the champion hurdle.

ON ZEE BRIDLE

To call that a race today was a joke, i hope muliins runs her in the irish champion hurdle instead of going straight to chelts. If she does she will be backed off the boards and will prob start fav ahead of BD

handsfree2

Angliru wrote: »

Send Laurina over fences next year, looks like she's already been schooled.

I thought she looked slow and high over her hurdles too.

Francie Barrett

Laurina has had multiple entries to take on Champion Hurdle contenders but yet swerved them all to run that joke of a mares race. I don't think what the connections have done is accidental at all. I think it will run over 2m4 like it did today in the mares race at Cheltenham.

Kauto

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Laurina has had multiple entries to take on Champion Hurdle contenders but yet swerved them all to run that joke of a mares race. I don't think what the connections have done is accidental at all. I think it will run over 2m4 like it did today in the mares race at Cheltenham.

No they haven't done it accidentally. She hasn't run to date became of the ground. Why would they risk her on it this early in the season. She will be running on decent ground in Cheltenham so time enough.
They think she is an absolute monster and in a poor champion hurdle she will lead home a WP forecast.

Gringo180

Looks like she needs it soft. Will she get that at the festival?

She will go the mares imo. Otherwise they would be testing her in top races before March.

NaiveMelodies

They'll have a fair idea of how she'd go against Melon, Sharjah et al and someones backed her to the extent she's extremely short based on anything done on track.
I suppose the decision for them is 7 lbs off Beuver D'air and the rest or levels v Apples Jade?

How many proper tests in open company did Annie Power get before her CH? World Hurdle?

Gringo180

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

They'll have a fair idea of how she'd go against Melon, Sharjah et al and someones backed her to the extent she's extremely short based on anything done on track.
I suppose the decision for them is 7 lbs off Beuver D'air and the rest or levels v Apples Jade?

How many proper tests in open company did Annie Power get before her CH? World Hurdle?

Certainly more than Laurina. Beat Zarkandar a couple of times on the snaff and had course form on good ground and went off around 3/1 in a weak enough Champ Hurdle. Laurina is nearly that price now and facing a 2 time champion in his prime and has never run on decent ground.

Kauto

Gringo180 wrote: »

Looks like she needs it soft. Will she get that at the festival?

She will go the mares imo. Otherwise they would be testing her in top races before March.

She doesn't need it soft but why risk her on it before you have to?

They know exactly what they have, so why bottom her out before the big day. WPM a genius. Owner wants the CH and that is where she will run.

Kauto

Gringo180 wrote: »

Certainly more than Laurina. Beat Zarkandar a couple of times on the snaff and had course form on good ground and went off around 3/1 in a weak enough Champ Hurdle. Laurina is nearly that price now and facing a 2 time champion in his prime and has never run on decent ground.

Well they think she is a fair bit better than Melon who was just beaten in the CH last year. Winner alright, winner alright

IAMAMORON

I just can't keep my mouth shut on this Laurina waffle any longer. The 4-1 currently on offer is a crap price. Who has she ever beat in open company? All of her form is on soft or heavier ground. This nonsense needs to stop. Anyone who thinks 4-1 is value needs their head examined.


If she turns out to be as good as she is I am delighted for her and her connections. As it stands she is rated 152. This is the same rating as any of the current leading novice hurdlers. How many of those are 4-1 for the champion hurdle?

paddyisreal

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I just can't keep my mouth shut on this Laurina waffle any longer. The 4-1 currently on offer is a crap price. Who has she ever beat in open company? All of her form is on soft or heavier ground. This nonsense needs to stop. Anyone who thinks 4-1 is value needs their head examined.


If she turns out to be as good as she is I am delighted for her and her connections. As it stands she is rated 152. This is the same rating as any of the current leading novice hurdlers. How many of those are 4-1 for the champion hurdle?

1000 percent agree with the above, bvd is rated 169 and she gets the allowance. Still has loads to find but at 4s its a crazy price.

Panrich

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I just can't keep my mouth shut on this Laurina waffle any longer. The 4-1 currently on offer is a crap price. Who has she ever beat in open company? All of her form is on soft or heavier ground. This nonsense needs to stop. Anyone who thinks 4-1 is value needs their head examined.


If she turns out to be as good as she is I am delighted for her and her connections. As it stands she is rated 152. This is the same rating as any of the current leading novice hurdlers. How many of those are 4-1 for the champion hurdle?

Sounds like a good lay opportunity for you if you feel that strongly.

The what has she beaten argument is a bit bogus as Buveur Dair could hardly have been more decisive than she has been in dispatching very inferior opponents. She’s beaten everything she’s faced on the snaff.

You are right though in that she hasn’t been tested and might well fall short of what’s required when upped against the very best. I saw someone post that she’d need to improve a stone to challenge Apples Jade. The problem with that argument is that we don’t know her current ability and the handicapper doesn’t either. What we can say is that it’s north of 152. How far north is conjecture.

The weight of money must tell something about the regard that she is held in by Willie and co. It’s not all mug punters money that has her where she is in the betting.

Gringo180

Kauto wrote: »

She doesn't need it soft but why risk her on it before you have to?

They know exactly what they have, so why bottom her out before the big day. WPM a genius. Owner wants the CH and that is where she will run.

All her form is on a bog. How do you know she will handle decent ground?

Panrich

Gringo180 wrote: »

All her form is on a bog. How do you know she will handle decent ground?

That certainly is a question mark. None of her sires progeny have ever won a race in Ire/UK on ground with good in the description from very few opportunities admittedly.

RivetingRoger

ground wont be good on day 1 lads, that's a given
twill we watered to death if no rain
ground wont be an issue
good to soft at absolute best
anything with soft in the name and with a race already run on it will be fine for her

The Mig

They know what they have in Closutton lads. Doesn’t matter what she’s done or how she has looked. Bigger engine than Annie is what I’ve heard

NaiveMelodies

The Mig wrote: »

They know what they have in Closutton lads. Doesn’t matter what she’s done or how she has looked. Bigger engine than Annie is what I’ve heard

They regularly don't know. If it was that straightforward they stable lads would be driving Lambos.

They'll know when we know on the 12th.

Earendil

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

They regularly don't know. If it was that straightforward they stable lads would be driving Lambos.

They'll know when we know on the 12th.

That doesn’t make sense.
In general you can get an idea in a big yard by how a horse runs in its work against graded animals.

NaiveMelodies

Earendil wrote: »

That doesn’t make sense.
In general you can get an idea in a big yard by how a horse runs in its work against graded animals.

Of course, yeah.

They don't how good a horse is going to be on the track though, i.e. that Laurina will be as good as Annie Power.

Plenty of horses touted as machines by various yards have not been machines. It's not that simple.