9th annual winter forecast contest 2018-2019

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2018 8:19pm #1

WELCOME to the 9th Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The rules will be similar to past years ...

The deadline will give you a chance to peer into the first week of December with some idea what's going on as the season starts. In weather circles, winter is December, January and February, and that will be the basis of our contest. Read the rules carefully and feel free to enter any time before the deadline ...

Entries accepted until 1500h Thursday 6 December, have moved this up ahead of an expected windstorm on Thursday night so that its maximum gust values are not known to any late entrants.

This contest was already opened up with the December forecast thread, and about 20 entries have been received in that thread. But we want to keep the tracking separate and invite in any Boards members who didn't see the original announcement. You have a few days yet, any forecasters who already entered can change any of their posted forecasts either here or back in the December thread. I will bring the table of entries over here on Friday 7th and add in any new forecasts posted here.

The top scores in past years were close to 75/100 to give you some idea of what the standard is. Here are the rules, look at the end of this post for a template that you can use to enter. I will make an effort to review all entries and contact anyone who has an incomplete entry. It's up to you to be familiar with the rules in each question.

(1) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the "IMT" which is the Irish Mean Temperature, a statistic developed on this forum by Deep Easterly, and the average of five stations in central inland locations (Shannon, Oak Park, Mullingar, Casement, Claremorris). For newbies, this is the average of daily highs and lows. Over recent 30-year periods, the means have been around 5.4 in Dec, 5.3 in Jan and 5.2 in Feb. Very mild months would run around 8-9 C and very cold ones a little below freezing (Dec 2010 was -0.4). These forecasts generate 5 points each, and the seasonal average, which you don't need to calculate (I do that from your entries) counts for 15 points.

(2) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the monthly precipitation as a percentage of normal values. This is calculated as in our monthly forecast contest, from records taken at eleven stations that report in the Met Eireann Monthly Summary. Those are the five mentioned above plus Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Belmullet, Ballyhaise and Malin Head. Note that Dublin is not included. Values under 50% are considered exceptionally dry and above 200% exceptionally wet (for your guidance). The scoring for these three forecasts and the seasonal average which again you don't need to enter, will also be 5,5,5 and 15 points.

(3) For all the reporting stations of Met Eireann, as reported in their Monthly Summary, predict the seasonal highest and lowest temperatures. This will apply only to dates from 1 Dec to 28 Feb for the max, but can apply to dates both before and after the winter for the min (up to 15 April when the contest results are declared). The max in the past three winters has been close to 15 and the min during the first contest was about -16 but then more like -6 in the second contest, -8 winter of 2012-13, and similar values the past two winters. I would guess the long-term average for the winter minimum is around -8 to perhaps -10. These two predictions are worth ten points each.

(4) Predict the seasonal snowfall (in cms) at Casement. This will run from the first measurable snowfall (your forecast should include anything already reported if it does snow in November, check this thread and elsewhere for updates on that) to 15 April (anything after that won't count as the contest is over on 15 April). These daily snowfall values (if they occur) are measured at hourly intervals and summed, which means the snow depth at any point might not be quite as much as the snowfall amount. However, amounts vary a lot from season to season. In the first contest winter 2010-11, there was about 50 or 60 cms but then we used a stat from Boards member "Danno" in Laois who had about 30 cms. In 2011-12, I believe there was almost zero accumulation and our lowest contest guess had the highest score. This was similar to the past four winters when most of the field guessed higher than what actually fell at Casement (something like 7 cm in 2012-13 and 3 cm in 2013-14 and 2 cm in 2014-15, 3 cm in 2015-16, almost nothing in 2016-17 and a moderate amount last winter compared to the heavy dumpings that occurred in Dublin and Wexford). This part is worth ten points.

(5) Finally, predict the highest wind gust in knots at any reporting station in Ireland as per the Met Eireann Monthly Summary, but note that in this case, the period is only the three winter months -- strong winds back in November or in March or early April won't count, the gust has to be between 1 Dec and 28 Feb. Knots are almost double km/hr and about 1.15 times mph. Values between 70 and 100 knots are most likely to verify from climatology, the extreme range would be about 50 to 120 for this statistic. This part is also worth ten points.

Note: All scores are based on rank order, not absolute differences from prediction to actual values. This equalizes the various sections of the contest and distributes the scores evenly. Once we establish the number of entries, I will update this scoring system, but basically, 10% of the entries get top scores in each category and then on down, with any odd numbers left over getting the zero scores. Where it's 10 points, the gradations are 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,0 and where 5 points, half of those values, where 15 we will give equal numbers of scores, and let you know later how many will share each score (based on number of entries).

So, here's the template, once you understand what to predict, just change all the letters here to number values and block copy, submit along with your comments etc. You can edit your post without notifying me at any time up to whenever you see the entries cut off announced and a table appearing in the thread. I don't work on that until the cut off, so edit at will, I won't know except for the forum software making a note of it.

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT
JAN-IMT
FEB-IMT
(I work out the average for you)

DEC-PRC
JAN-PRC
FEB-PRC
(I work out the average for you)

MAX TEMP C (must be in Dec, Jan or Feb)

MIN TEMP C (can be up to 15 April)

SNOW cms (total to 15 April, zero so far)

GUST kts

(all temps can have one decimal place, prc % to nearest whole number, snow can also have one decimal place, gust to nearest whole number)

Good luck !!

(previous entrants in Dec thread, no action required)

Rebelbrowser · 06-12-2018 10:33am

DEC-IMT 6.2
JAN-IMT 4.9
FEB-IMT 5.9

DEC-PRC 111
JAN-PRC 82
FEB-PRC 73

MAX TEMP C 15.2

MIN TEMP C -6.3

SNOW cms 2cm

GUST kts 71

sunflower3 · 06-12-2018 12:42pm

DEC-IMT 6.0
JAN-IMT 4.5
FEB-IMT 4.8

DEC-PRC 105
JAN-PRC 110
FEB-PRC 85

MAX TEMP C 16.0

MIN TEMP C -7.0

SNOW cms 4cm

GUST 65 kts

M.T. Cranium · 06-12-2018 10:17pm

Table of forecasts for winter forecast contest 2018-19

Forecasts are listed in order of winter mean temp (IMT) -- the winter mean temp and prc values are calculated from your monthly forecasts. If your DEC max or min are more extreme than what you mentioned for rest of winter, the DEC values enter the contest. Twenty forecasts were posted in the December contest thread, and two more here, which have been incorporated into the table ...

the contest is now closed to further entries due to impending windy conditions that might provide real-time advantages (if you think this is going to be as windy as it gets, I don't) ...

FORECASTER _________ IMT ______________ PRC _________ MAX __ MIN ___SNOW (cm)_MAX GUST (kts)
________________________________________________________________________________________

pauldry ___________ 6.7 5.4 5.2 5.77 __ 135 100 089 108 __ 15.2 _--17.7 __ 20.0 ____ 75

Rebelbrowser ______ 6.2 4.9 5.9 5.67 __ 111 082 073 089 __ 15.2 __--6.3 ___ 2.0 ____ 71

Tae laidir __________5.9 4.6 5.5 5.33 __ 138 115 120 124 __ 14.8 __--8.8 ___ 8.0 ____ 78

___ NormaL _______ 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.30 __ 100 100 100 100 __ 15.5 __--9.0 __ 12.0 ____ 80

Bsal ______________5.4 5.2 5.2 5.27 __ 125 099 105 110 __ 15.0 __--6.5 __ 10.0 ____ 79

John mac __________5.4 5.0 5.4 5.27 __ 120 102 090 104 __ 15.0 __--8.0 __ 13.0 ____ 70

sunflower3 ________ 6.0 4.5 4.8 5.10 __ 105 110 085 100 __ 16.0 __--7.0 ___ 4.0 ____ 65

sryanbruen ________ 5.6 4.9 4.6 5.03 __ 110 085 110 102 __ 15.3 __--7.2 ___ 3.0 ____ 84

dacogawa _________ 5.6 4.6 4.8 5.00 __ 132 090 110 111 __ 15.9 __--9.4 __ 41.0 ____ 81

rikand ____________ 5.5 4.5 5.0 5.00 ___090 090 090 090 __ 16.0 _--11.1 __ 30.0 ____ 80

Joe Public __________6.1 3.9 4.8 4.93 __ 127 110 104 114 __ 14.9 __--8.9 __ 23.0 ____ 76

Adam240610 _______ 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.93 __ 124 100 095 106 __ 15.0 __--8.1 ___ 4.0 ____ 76

___ Consensus ______5.8 4.5 4.5 4.93 __ 111 093 093 099 __ 15.1 __ --8.9 __ 12.0 ____ 76

mickger844posts ____ 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.93 __ 100 090 110 100 __ 16.3 __--5.2 __ 10.0 ____ 69

200motels _________ 5.7 4.3 4.6 4.87 __ 110 109 095 105 __ 15.9 __--8.9 ___ 8.0 ____ 70

MrSkinner _________ 6.0 4.4, 4.2 4.87 __ 090 090 090 090 __ 14.3 __--6.8 __ 20.0 ____ 68

Artane2002 ________ 6.0 4.0 4.5 4.83 __ 120 085 090 098 __ 14.7 __--8.1 __ 12.0 ____ 70

M.T. Cranium _______5.9 3.0 5.5 4.80 __ 120 090 090 100 __ 15.0 _--12.0 __ 18.0 ____ 84

JCX BXC ___________5.5 4.6 4.2 4.77 __ 090 085 110 095 __ 14.5 _--10.2 __ 13.0 ____ 80

DOCARCH _________ 5.7 4.8 3.2 4.57 __ 135 105 075 105 __ 16.2 __--9.6 __ 23.0 ____ 79

Rameire ___________5.2 4.3 4.0 4.50 __ 095 095 100 097 __ 13.5 __--8.6 ___ 9.0 ____ 73

sdanseo ___________5.8 3.2 2.1 3.70 __ 112 103 085 100 __ 14.6 _--13.8 __ 29.0 ____ 81

Bazlers ____________5.0 2.1 4.2 3.70 __ 110 080 090 093 __ 14.0 _--13.5 __ 27.0 ____ 78

BLIZZARD7 ________ 4.7 1.1 2.7 2.83 __ 120 090 120 110 __ 15.5 _--18.3 __ 37.0 ____ 73

_________________________________________________________________________

Consensus is the median value for all forecasts, with 22 of them, the median is average of 11th and 12th ranked values so in some cases Consensus is not equal to any individual forecast. The consensus IMT for the season was going to be the mean of the three consensus values but happens to be also the median of our seasonal averages. The mean PRC for the season is the mean of the three consensus values, 99 per cent. The median of our seasonal values is 101 per cent.

Seasonal winter forecast based on group consensus and spread:

The 22 participants foresee a slightly colder winter than normal, with all of the negative departures likely to fall in January and February after a slightly milder than average December. The average for Jan-Feb is expected to be about 0.7 deg below normal, with some going as low as 3.5 degrees below. A minority of the forecasters believe the full winter season will stay mild, as most think December will be, generally 0.5 above normal.

The consensus calls for a near normal range of temperatures from -9 to 15 degrees, and on the maximum there is only a small spread of opinion. As it has already reached 14.2 in early December, few think it will get much warmer but when they do, they mention February as the more likely month (some mentioned January). On the coldest temperature, there is a wide spread of opinion. Some believe we will not see colder readings than we already had in November (minimum -5.2 is the highest value in the contest). About one-third think it could get down below -12 C. These are the same forecasters calling for heavier snowfall (at Casement, the contest validation site). Here, the range is quite large too, from 2 cms to 41 cms. The snowfall season for the contest includes March and early April so this would not all necessarily have to fall in the winter months. As far as strong winds are concerned, the spread of forecasts is fairly tight and the consensus is a maximum gust of 76 knots, while the range is from 65 to 84 knots.

Most of the forecasters believe December will be a little wetter than normal, while January and February are likely to be on the dry side of normal (which correlates well with their colder than average calls). The ranges are not extreme, with few individual forecasts outside the range of 80 to 120 per cent of normal for any month. The range for the season is from 89% to 124% of normal precipitation, and the consensus is very close to normal.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2019 10:33pm

The results are in for December, which had a very mild IMT value of 8.0, and 127% of normal precipitation.

Scoring for the months alone on those elements is worth five points, it's the overall winter average that gets the larger share of points (15% in each case). The MAX so far for the winter three month season is 14.3, and the MIN remains -5.0 from November.

There has been no snow and the maximum wind gust was 61 knots but I imagine that January or February will do better.

With 22 entrants, the scoring will drop 0.25 per rank (21 would make that perfect from 5.0 to 0.0), with one rank allowed to have two, either through one tie, or if more than one tie, through the first and highest scoring tie that exists. (10 will work the same way by intervals of 0.5, and 15 will be scored by half point drops for first twelve then full drops to one point and then 0.5 and 0.0. ... In all cases, Normal and Consensus get scores that are based on the forecast scores but do not affect their progression.

Scoring to date
_______________

FORECASTER ______ Dec IMT, PRC ___ TOTAL

Joe Public _________ 4.50 __ 5.00 ____ 9.50

Adam240610 _______4.25 __ 4.50 ____ 8.75

Artane2002 ________ 4.25 __ 4.00 ____ 8.25

pauldry ___________ 5.00 __ 3.25 ____ 8.25

M.T. Cranium _______3.50 __ 4.00 ____ 7.50

Rebelbrowser ______ 4.75 __ 2.25 ____ 7.00

dacogawa _________ 2.25 __ 4.25 ____ 6.50

Tae laidir __________3.50 __ 2.75 ____ 6.25

DOCARCH _________ 2.75__ 3.25 ____ 6.00

Bsal ______________1.00 __ 4.75 ____ 5.75

sunflower3 ________ 4.25 __ 1.25 ____ 5.50

sdanseo ___________3.00 __ 2.50 ____ 5.50

___ Consensus _____ 3.00 __ 2.25 ____ 5.25

John mac __________1.00 __ 4.00 ____ 5.00

200motels _________2.75 __ 2.00 ____ 4.75

MrSkinner _________ 4.25 __ 0.50 ____ 4.75

sryanbruen ________ 2.25 __ 2.00 ____ 4.25

BLIZZARD7 ________ 0.00__ 4.00 ____ 4.00

mickger844posts ____2.25 __ 1.25 ____ 3.50

Bazlers ____________0.25 __ 2.00 ____ 2.25

___ NormaL _______ 1.00 __ 1.25 ____ 2.25

JCX BXC ___________1.50 __ 0.50 ____ 2.00

rikand ____________ 1.50 __ 0.50 ____ 2.00

Rameire ___________0.50 __ 0.75 ____ 1.25

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2019 1:07am

IMT for January was 5.7 C and the PRC was 57%. MAX of 13.3 was not as mild as December so that is maintained, the MIN was --5.8 which is the new low for the winter so far. No snow at Casement, and I don't think December's wind gusts were outdone.

Scoring update as follows:

Scoring to date
_______________

FORECASTER _______ D-J IMT ___ D-J PRC _____ TOTAL

Rebelbrowser ______ 4.75 4.25 __ 2.25 4.75 ____16.00

pauldry ___________ 5.00 5.00__ 3.25 2.00 ____ 15.25

Artane2002 ________ 4.25 1.25__ 4.00 4.50 ____14.00

dacogawa _________ 2.25 3.50 __ 4.25 4.00 ____14.00

Adam240610 _______4.25 2.25 __ 4.50 2.00 ____13.00

sryanbruen ________ 2.25 4.25 __ 2.00 4.50 ____13.00

Bsal ______________1.00 4.75 __ 4.75 2.25 ____12.75

M.T. Cranium _______3.50 0.50 __ 4.00 4.00 ____12.00

mickger844posts ____2.25 3.75 __ 1.25 4.00 ____11.25

DOCARCH _________ 2.75 4.00 __ 3.25 1.00 ____11.00

Joe Public _________ 4.50 1.00 __ 5.00 0.50 ____11.00

John mac __________1.00 4.50 __ 4.00 1.50 ____11.00

MrSkinner _________ 4.25 2.25 __ 0.50 4.00 ____11.00

___ Consensus _____ 3.00 2.75 __ 2.25 2.50 ____ 10.50

JCX BXC ___________1.50 3.50 __ 0.50 4.50 ____10.00

Tae laidir __________3.50 3.50 __ 2.75 0.00 _____ 9.75

___ NormaL _______ 1.00 4.75 __ 1.25 2.00 _____ 9.00

rikand ____________ 1.50 2.75 __ 0.50 4.00 _____ 8.75

sunflower3 ________ 4.25 2.75 __ 1.25 0.50 _____ 8.75

BLIZZARD7 ________ 0.00 0.00 __ 4.00 4.00 _____ 8.00

Bazlers ____________0.25 0.25 __ 2.00 5.00 _____ 7.50

sdanseo ___________3.00 0.75 __ 2.50 1.25 _____ 7.50

200motels _________ 2.75 1.75 __ 2.00 0.75 _____ 7.25

Rameire ___________0.50 1.75 __ 0.75 2.50 _____ 5.50

M.T. Cranium · 09-02-2019 10:36pm

I am now adding provisional scores for strongest wind gust (67 knots on 25 Jan beat out 7th Feb by 2, and anything in Dec by 6), and as it seems to be heading for a low total, snowfall assuming low forecast wins. Highest tied score for low snowfall would be 9.0 for adam240610 and sunflower3, so that makes 8.5 the next score in line (and two were tied for that). Highest tied score for low wind speed is for second place (65, 69) after the 68 forecast of MrSkinner got 10.0, so for mickger844posts and sunflower3 tied 9.5, that moves the scoring adjustment to the fourth place forecast (70 knots) which (three tied) get 9.0 instead of 8.5. This would change if the value moves higher than 67 knots.

These scores may change but wind gusts only apply to this month for any changes, whereas total snow goes to end of contest in mid-April.

And I will show provisional scoring for MIN assuming high score is our second highest forecast (-6.3) with highest (-5.2) currently in second place, third highest of -6.5 narrowly in third, since the MIN so far is -5.8 C. Will score them 10, 9.5 and 9.0, but any fractional decrease from -5.8 would reverse second and third. The fourth highest MIN forecast was -6.8 and remains in play for a boost with any drop below -6.1.

This one could change slightly or perhaps more than slightly and applies to March and early April as well. But it gives us a picture of how things are evolving if the mild/bland trend continues. The scoring system goes by equal increments with one reduction removed after the shared score for highest tied values, those at the moment are the -8.1 guesses of Adam240610 and Artane 2002. The only way that can change is for two to be tied on opposite sides of the actual MIN, there are values that produce that result. (the tie is at 6.5 out of 10 currently so the next lower score is 6.0 rather than 5.5).

Note: consensus snowfall forecast was 13.0, not 12.0 as shown in table of forecasts.

Scoring Update -- Provisional for MIN, Wind gusts, Snowfall
___________________________________________________________

FORECASTER _______ D-J IMT ___ D-J PRC _____ MIN ___ SNOW _ Max gust __ TOTAL

Rebelbrowser ______ 4.75 4.25 __ 2.25 4.75 _____ 10.0 ____10.0 ____ 7.5 ____ 43.5

mickger844posts ____2.25 3.75 __ 1.25 4.00 ______ 9.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 9.5 ____ 37.25

Artane2002 ________ 4.25 1.25__ 4.00 4.50 ______ 6.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 9.0 ____ 35.5

sunflower3 ________ 4.25 2.75 __ 1.25 0.50 ______ 8.0 ____ 9.0 ____ 9.5 ____ 35.25

Adam240610 _______4.25 2.25 __ 4.50 2.00 ______ 6.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 34.0

MrSkinner _________ 4.25 2.25 __ 0.50 4.00 ______ 8.5 ____ 4.0 ___ 10.0 ____ 33.5

John mac __________1.00 4.50 __ 4.00 1.50 ______ 7.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 32.5

Bsal ______________1.00 4.75 __ 4.75 2.25 ______ 9.0 ____ 7.0 ____ 3.5 ____ 32.25

sryanbruen ________ 2.25 4.25 __ 2.00 4.50 ______ 7.5 ____ 9.5 ____ 0.5 ____ 30.5

200motels _________2.75 1.75 __ 2.00 0.75 ______ 5.0 ____ 8.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 29.75

Tae laidir __________3.50 3.50 __ 2.75 0.00 ______ 5.5 ____ 8.5 ____ 4.5 ____ 28.25

___ Consensus _____ 3.00 2.75 __ 2.25 2.50 ______ 5.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 5.5 ____ 26.5

Rameire __________ 0.50 1.75 __ 0.75 2.50 ______ 6.0 ____ 7.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 26.0

pauldry ___________ 5.00 5.00__ 3.25 2.00 ______ 0.5 ____ 4.0 ____ 6.0 ____ 25.75

Joe Public _________ 4.50 1.00 __ 5.00 0.50 ______ 5.0 ____ 3.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 24.5

___ NormaL _______ 1.00 4.75 __ 1.25 2.00 ______ 4.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 2.5 ____ 22.0

DOCARCH _________ 2.75 4.00 __ 3.25 1.00 ______ 3.5 ____ 3.0 ____ 3.5 ____ 21.0

JCX BXC ___________1.50 3.50 __ 0.50 4.50 ______ 3.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 2.5 ____ 21.0

dacogawa _________ 2.25 3.50 __ 4.25 4.00 ______ 4.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 19.5

M.T. Cranium _______3.50 0.50 __ 4.00 4.00 ______ 2.0 ____ 4.5 ____ 0.5 ____ 19.0

BLIZZARD7 ________ 0.00 0.00 __ 4.00 4.00 ______ 0.0 ____ 0.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 15.5

Bazlers ____________0.25 0.25 __ 2.00 5.00 ______ 1.5 ____ 2.0 ____ 4.5 ____ 15.5

rikand ____________ 1.50 2.75 __ 0.50 4.00 ______ 2.5 ____ 1.0 ____ 2.5 ____ 14.75

sdanseo ___________3.00 0.75 __ 2.50 1.25 ______ 1.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 1.5 ____ 11.5

______________________________________________________________________

So, there's still time for the colder and snowier forecasts to succeed, but with no strong indications showing, this is a more likely form chart at the present time. Feb IMT and PRC will determine the winter averages which are worth 15 points each, so a lot of scoring adjustments left to be determined. MAX so far is going towards lowest forecasts too.

M.T. Cranium · 16-02-2019 8:51pm

A reading of 16.5 at Phoenix Park on Friday is warmer than any MAX predicted in our contest, so that means I can now score MAX and not provisionally unless they change this value to 16.2 or lower in the monthly summary. It appears that February will also be warmer than all forecasts (highest is 5.9) and that will make the seasonal IMT warmer than all averages (with 8.0 for Dec, 5.7 for Jan, Feb only needs to finish 3.6 to make the warmest seasonal average correct). So I am adding those scores in as provisional. It leaves just the February PRC and seasonal PRC to be determined, as well as following provisional scoring on MIN, SNOW and wind gust, any of which could change yet.

Mickger844posts was closest on MAX with 16.3, followed by DOCARCH at 16.2. Sunflower3 and rikand went for 16.0.

Rebelbrowser will likely be closest on Feb IMT at 5.9 and Pauldry on seasonal at 5.77, our highest average IMT forecast. (If IMT is 6.7, my current estimate, seasonal IMT will be 6.8 :eek:).

It's not as easy to assess where scoring will be after Feb PRC, the current running average was 94% after Dec-Jan and so far this month has been near normal.

So here's the updated scoring with those elements added in. There are 20 points yet to be awarded (Feb PRC and seasonal PRC) and another 30 of this total can be considered subject to adjustment although probably not very much so.

Scoring Update -- Provisional for Feb IMT, seasonal IMT, MIN, Wind gusts, Snowfall
______________________________________________________________________

FORECASTER _______D-J-F IMT _______IMT ___ D-J PRC ____ MAX _ MIN ___ SNOW _ Max gust __TOTAL

Rebelbrowser ______ 4.75 4.25 5.00 __ 14.0 __ 2.25 4.75 ____ 6.5 __ 10.0 ___ 10.0 ___ 7.5 ____ 69.0

sunflower3 ________ 4.25 2.75 3.50 __ 10.0 __ 1.25 0.50 ____ 9.0 __ 8.0 ____ 9.0 ____ 9.5 ____ 57.75

mickger844posts ____2.25 3.75 2.25 ___ 6.0 __ 1.25 4.00 ____10.0 __ 9.5 ____7.0 ____ 9.5 ____ 55.5

John mac __________1.00 4.50 4.50 __ 12.0 __ 4.00 1.50 ____ 5.5 __ 7.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 54.5

Bsal ______________1.00 4.75 4.25 __ 12.0 __ 4.75 2.25 ____ 5.5 __ 9.0 ____ 7.0 ____ 3.5 ____ 54.0

pauldry ___________ 5.00 5.00 4.25 __ 15.0 __ 3.25 2.00 ____ 6.5 __ 0.5 ____ 4.0 ____ 6.0 ____ 51.5

sryanbruen ________ 2.25 4.25 2.75 ___ 9.0 __ 2.00 4.50 ____ 7.0 __ 7.5 ____ 9.5 ____ 0.5 ____ 49.25

Tae laidir __________3.50 3.50 4.75 __ 13.0 __ 2.75 0.00 ____ 3.0 __ 5.5 ____ 8.5 ____ 4.5 ____ 49.0

Adam240610 _______4.25 2.25 1.75 ___ 6.0 __ 4.50 2.00 ____ 5.5 __ 6.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 47.25

___ NormaL _______ 1.00 4.75 4.25 __ 12.5 __ 1.25 2.00 ____ 7.5 __ 4.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 2.5 ____ 46.25

200motels _________2.75 1.75 2.75 ___ 4.5 __ 2.00 0.75 ____ 8.5 __ 5.0 ____ 8.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 46.0

Artane2002 ________4.25 1.25 2.25 ___ 3.5 __ 4.00 4.50 ____ 2.5 __ 6.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 9.0 ____ 43.75

MrSkinner _________ 4.25 2.25 1.50 ___ 4.5 __ 0.50 4.00 ____ 1.0 __ 8.5 ____ 4.0 ___ 10.0 ____ 40.5

___ Consensus _____ 3.00 2.75 2.25 ___ 6.0 __ 2.25 2.50 ____ 5.5 __ 5.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 5.5 ____ 40.25

dacogawa _________ 2.25 3.50 3.50 ___ 8.0 __ 4.25 4.00 ____ 8.5 __ 4.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 39.5

Joe Public _________ 4.50 1.00 3.50 ___ 6.0 __ 5.00 0.50 ____ 3.5 __ 5.0 ____ 3.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 37.5

rikand ____________ 1.50 2.75 3.75 ___ 8.0 __ 0.50 4.00 ____ 9.0 __ 2.5 ____ 1.0 ____ 2.5 ____ 35.5

DOCARCH _________ 2.75 4.00 0.50 ___ 2.0 __ 3.25 1.00 ____ 9.5 __ 3.5 ____ 3.0 ____ 3.5 ____ 33.0

M.T. Cranium _______3.50 0.50 4.75 ___ 3.0 __ 4.00 4.00 ____ 5.5 __ 2.0 ____ 4.5 ____ 0.5 ____ 32.25

Rameire ___________0.50 1.75 0.75 ___ 1.5 __ 0.75 2.50 ____ 0.0 __ 6.0 ____ 7.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 28.25

JCX BXC ___________1.50 3.50 1.50 ___ 2.5 __ 0.50 4.50 ____ 1.5 __ 3.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 2.5 ____ 26.5

BLIZZARD7 ________ 0.00 0.00 0.25 ___ 0.0 __ 4.00 4.00 ____ 7.5 __ 0.0 ____ 0.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 23.25

Bazlers ____________0.25 0.25 1.50 ___ 1.0 __ 2.00 5.00 ____ 0.5 __ 1.5 ____ 2.0 ____ 4.5 ____ 18.5

sdanseo ___________3.00 0.75 0.00 ___ 1.0 __ 2.50 1.25 ____ 2.0 __ 1.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 1.5 ____ 14.5
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The finish could be close as both sunflower3, mickger844posts and John mac have wetter Feb and seasonal PRC forecasts than Rebelbrowser. All three will probably gain some points there, but will it be enough to overtake? Or will any of the provisional scores change? Rebelbrowser is more vulnerable on low snowfall and high MIN than in the wind gust category where he can improve his differential on the chasers with a higher gust speed.

Rebelbrowser · 01-03-2019 9:27pm

Put us out of our misery please MT, tell us who won?ðŸ˜°

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2019 8:58am

The February IMT was 7.5 C and PRC was 83%. There has been an even higher MAX (17.3) since the last report.

The temperature data confirm the provisional scoring for aspects of temperature except that MIN remains open until contest ends 15th April.

The mean winter temperature came in well above any forecast at 7.07 C.

The mean winter precipitation was (127+57+83)/3 or 89.0 per cent of normal. We can now score Feb PRC and winter PRC.

I will confirm maximum wind gust information by the 4th but the period for qualifying gusts is over so anything major this week will be too late.

This will lead to full provisional scoring that remains subject to change for only snowfall at Casement and MIN lower than -5.8 C.

For the time being, this would be the final scoring results if neither of those elements changes from current values.

-- Feb PRC top scores are tied (5.00 points) so the next score will be 4.75 rather than 4.50.

-- Winter PRC top score (15 points) goes to Rebelbrowser who hit 89% right on. There was a tie for second (90%) which means those two forecasts get 14 points each, then as that is the highest tied score, the next position gets 13 points.

Commentary on all other scoring (that already happened provisionally) can be found in previous posts above.

Scoring Update -- Provisional for MIN, and Snowfall -- see discussion above
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FORECASTER _______D-J-F IMT _____IMT ___ D-J-F PRC _____PRC ___ MAX _ MIN ___ SNOW _ Max gust __TOTAL

Rebelbrowser ______ 4.75 4.25 5.00 _ 14.0 __ 2.25 4.75 2.75 _ 15.0 ___ 6.5 __10.0 ___ 10.0 ___ 7.5 ____ 86.75

sunflower3 ________ 4.25 2.75 3.50 _ 10.0 __ 1.25 0.50 5.00 __ 9.0 ___ 9.0 __ 8.0 ____ 9.0 ___ 9.5 ____ 71.75

mickger844posts ____2.25 3.75 2.25 __ 6.0 __ 1.25 4.00 1.25 __ 9.0 ___10.0 __ 9.5 ____7.0 ____ 9.5 ____ 65.75

John mac __________1.00 4.50 4.50 _ 12.0 __ 4.00 1.50 4.50 __ 4.5 ___ 5.5 __ 7.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 63.5

MrSkinner _________ 4.25 2.25 1.50 __ 4.5 __ 0.50 4.00 4.50 _ 14.0 ___ 1.0 __ 8.5 ____ 4.0 ___ 10.0 ____ 59.0

pauldry ___________ 5.00 5.00 4.25 _ 15.0 __ 3.25 2.00 4.75 __ 2.5 ___ 6.5 __ 0.5 ____ 4.0 ____ 6.0 ____ 58.75

Artane2002 ________4.25 1.25 2.25 __ 3.5 __ 4.00 4.50 4.50 _ 10.0 ___ 2.5 __ 6.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 9.0 ____ 58.25

Bsal ______________1.00 4.75 4.25 _ 12.0 __ 4.75 2.25 1.50 __ 2.0 ___ 5.5 __ 9.0 ____ 7.0 ____ 3.5 ____ 57.5

___ NormaL _______ 1.00 4.75 4.25 _ 12.5 __ 1.25 2.00 2.00 __ 9.0 ___ 7.5 __ 4.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 2.5 ____ 57.25

sryanbruen ________ 2.25 4.25 2.75 __ 9.0 __ 2.00 4.50 1.25 __ 5.0 ___ 7.0 __ 7.5 ____ 9.5 ____ 0.5 ____ 55.5

rikand ____________ 1.50 2.75 3.75 __ 8.0 __ 0.50 4.00 4.50 _ 14.0 ___ 9.0 __ 2.5 ____ 1.0 ____ 2.5 ____ 54.0

Adam240610 _______4.25 2.25 1.75 __ 6.0 __ 4.50 2.00 2.50 __ 3.0 ___ 5.5 __ 6.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 52.75

200motels _________2.75 1.75 2.75 __ 4.5 __ 2.00 0.75 2.50 __ 4.0 ___ 8.5 __ 5.0 ____ 8.5 ____ 9.0 ____ 52.5

___ Consensus _____ 3.00 2.75 2.25 __ 6.0 __ 2.25 2.50 2.75 __ 9.5 ___ 5.5 __ 5.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 5.5 ____ 52.5

Tae laidir __________3.50 3.50 4.75 _ 13.0 __ 2.75 0.00 0.25 __ 0.0 ___ 3.0 __ 5.5 ____ 8.5 ____ 4.5 ____ 49.25

M.T. Cranium _______3.50 0.50 4.75 __ 3.0 __ 4.00 4.00 4.50 __ 9.0 ___ 5.5 __ 2.0 ____ 4.5 ____ 0.5 ____ 45.75

dacogawa _________ 2.25 3.50 3.50 __ 8.0 __ 4.25 4.00 1.25 __ 1.0 ___ 8.5 __ 4.0 ____ 0.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 41.75

Rameire ___________0.50 1.75 0.75 __ 1.5 __ 0.75 2.50 2.00 _ 11.0 ___ 0.0 __ 6.0 ____ 7.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 41.25

DOCARCH _________ 2.75 4.00 0.50 __ 2.0 __ 3.25 1.00 3.00 __ 4.0 ___ 9.5 __ 3.5 ____ 3.0 ____ 3.5 ____ 40.0

Joe Public _________ 4.50 1.00 3.50 __ 6.0 __ 5.00 0.50 1.75 __ 0.5 ___ 3.5 __ 5.0 ____ 3.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 39.75

JCX BXC ___________1.50 3.50 1.50 __ 2.5 __ 0.50 4.50 1.25 _ 12.0 ___ 1.5 __ 3.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 2.5 ____ 39.75

Bazlers ____________0.25 0.25 1.50 __ 1.0 __ 2.00 5.00 4.50 _ 13.0 ___ 0.5 __ 1.5 ____ 2.0 ____ 4.5 ____ 36.0

sdanseo ___________3.00 0.75 0.00 __ 1.0 __ 2.50 1.25 5.00 __ 9.0 ___ 2.0 __ 1.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 1.5 ____ 28.5

BLIZZARD7 ________ 0.00 0.00 0.25 __ 0.0 __ 4.00 4.00 0.25 __ 2.0 ___ 7.5 __ 0.0 ____ 0.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 25.5
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So now we wait to see if any new outbreaks of wintry weather will change either MIN or produce any snow at Casement. However, with the lead that Rebelbrowser has on nearest two chasers, and their forecasts being close to his, I can't see this order of finish changing even if there is considerable snow and a very cold outbreak, as the forecasters who could gain the most from some large changes in those scores are probably too far back to catch up.

The forecast will have an official wrap-up announcement around mid-April. But I have the feeling that these scores will stand up. So well done to Rebelbrowser if this holds, 86.75 is probably the highest score we've had in this format.

Rebelbrowser · 02-03-2019 2:36pm

In a winter when all the long range models got most things wrong, the potential success here of someone who struggles to remember which way air travels around high pressure is yet another blow to the science of meteorology!

Thanks for all your hard work MT.

9th annual winter forecast contest 2018-2019

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