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Underperforming Markets

  • 30-11-2018 2:28pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭ Gandalph


    I'm looking to identify countries who's markets have been on a low for the last 1-2 years were fundamentals are starting to come back but market sentiment hasn't. Ideally countries that have performed strong in the past but are struggling at the moment.

    How would I go about looking for these, maybe perhaps stale bond markets or GDP/GNP growth rates?

    I understand it is the golden question for any investor but if someone can give me recommendations of what countries to look into I can go my own further due diligence.

    Thanks!


Comments

  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 7,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007


    Gandalph wrote: »
    I understand it is the golden question for any investor but if someone can give me recommendations of what countries to look into I can go my own further due diligence.

    Well if you are unable to identify the countries in the first place, how to think you are qualified to do further due diligence??? And I'm not being funny about this.

    In any case the kind of situation you describe does not exist, because most analysts will have long since identified such situations and recommend them to their clients.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭ Gandalph


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Well if you are unable to identify the countries in the first place, how to think you are qualified to do further due diligence??? And I'm not being funny about this.

    I don't have the time to do a full sweep macro analysis of every large/medium scale economy across the globe. I'm work in a sector which I am more than capable of doing DD on thanks, not everyone is an economist.
    Jim2007 wrote: »
    In any case the kind of situation you describe does not exist, because most analysts will have long since identified such situations and recommend them to their clients.

    This is so unhelpful it hurts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,472 Sposs


    Gandalph wrote: »
    I don't have the time to do a full sweep macro analysis of every large/medium scale economy across the globe. I'm work in a sector which I am more than capable of doing DD on thanks, not everyone is an economist.



    This is so unhelpful it hurts.

    I think Jim is simply being honest, your looking for the golden goose that doesn't exist.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 7,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007


    Gandalph wrote: »
    I don't have the time to do a full sweep macro analysis of every large/medium scale economy across the globe. I'm work in a sector which I am more than capable of doing DD on thanks, not everyone is an economist.

    If you don't have the time nor the expertise, then it more likely than not that you will end up loosing money this way.

    There are basically two things that work over the long term (20+ years) in investing:
    - A good asset allocation strategy and well selected index funds to match it
    - Investing in individual companies, either growth or value

    The first takes perhaps 3 or 4 days semi-annually, the second perhaps 1 or 2 days a week. If you don't have the time to commit then stick to option one.
    Gandalph wrote: »
    This is so unhelpful it hurts.

    There is no room for sentiment in investing. Having spent over 25 years watching what people do, I have no hesitation in saying that one of the main reason people loose money, is a failure to recognise their own limitations:
    - Over estimating their capacity for risk
    - Market timing
    - A lack of skills to analyse economic situations
    - A lack of skills to analyse companies
    - A failure to put as much effort into analysing the competitors of the company the are investing in
    - Chancing results
    - Churning holdings
    Everyone will tell you that they would never do those things. Put people like myself who do performance and attribution analysis will tell you it remarkable how often they do this, even professionals.

    Investing is not a competition, the objective is to get the return you need and the minimum risk. And part of reducing that risk is to work to your advantages not your disadvantages. If you don't have a high capacity for risk or time or whatever then include that in your strategy you will be more successful that way in the long term.


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