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December 2018 Boards weather forecast contest.

  • 27-11-2018 3:16am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    This winter, we already have a thread started to guess the lowest temperature of the winter season. I mentioned that we also have this winter forecast contest as an annual tradition. But most of the people who enter that are regulars in the monthly forecast contest.

    The first section below will be instructions about the standard monthly forecast contest. Enter one line for this, then go to part two of these contest instructions and find out what else you need to enter, only if you wish to submit that second entry into the winter forecast contest:

    MONTHLY FORECAST

    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) and (for 3 point super-bonus), will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Friday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Saturday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).


    ADDITIONAL ENTRY FORM FOR WINTER FORECAST CONTEST

    After you post the usual December entry (see part one above), add the following details in a separate line or column --

    Jan and Feb IMT (normals are 5.3 and 5.2)

    MAX for the winter season (leave blank if you think your Dec prediction is good for that) -- MAX must be recorded in Dec 2018, Jan 2019 or Feb 2019.

    MIN for the winter -- once again, if your December prediction is "it" then leave blank, note that MIN can occur as late as contest end date of 15th April, you don't have to say when you think this will happen.

    Then add Jan and Feb PRC forecasts (% of normal as per Dec).

    Also add a total snowfall at Casement (cms) for the winter season to 15 April.

    Finally predict a maximum wind gust for the three winter month period, anything that happens on 28 to 30 November is not in play.

    There will be a 3-day extension of the deadline for this winter forecast so if you want, you can delay posting these additional values, or send them to me by PM. No rush on adding them, and they are non-binding on your Jan and Feb monthly forecasts when the time comes for those.

    You can enter just the winter forecast contest if you wish. The deadline for that will be end of the day Monday 3rd of December. Follow part two instructions, and add December IMT and PRC. Definitions of IMT and PRC are found in part one above (basically, the mean temperature and percentage of normal precipitation). I work out from your monthly forecasts the winter averages.

    Good luck everyone !


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Let's get this going ...

    MTC ____________ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ Yes (everywhere, Knock for starters)

    rest of winter IMT 3.0, 5.5 ... PRC 090, 090 ... max 15.0 (Feb) and min -12.0 (Jan) ... 18.0 cm snow ... 84 kt wind gust

    NormaL __ (Dec) _ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ No (nowhere except tops of a few hills)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____________ 6.1 _ 14.9 _ -5.9 _ 127 _ 98 ___ No ..... Dub Apt. 25th Max 10.5 Min 5.2

    rest of winter IMT 3.9, 4.8 ... PRC 110, SUN 104 ... max 14.8 (Feb) and min -8.9 (Jan) ... 23.0 cm snow ... 76 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo ____________ 5.8 _ 14.2 _ -5.9 _ 112 _ 108 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.8 Min. 3.0, Yes Ballyhaise

    rest of winter IMT 3.2, 2.1 ... PRC 103, 085 ... max 14.6 (Feb) and min -13.8 (Feb) ... 29 cm snow ... 81 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____________ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ -5.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 6.1 Min. 2.5, No

    rest of winter IMT 4.9, 4.6 ... PRC 085, 110 ... max 15.3 (Jan) and min -7.2 (Jan) ... 3 cm snow ... 84 kt wind gust

    Overall, not a particularly interesting Winter :pac:

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry ____________ 6.7_ 14.7_ -6_ 135_ 101___ Dublin Airport Max. 8.5 Min. 4.0, No

    rest of winter IMT 5.4, 5.2 ... PRC 100, 089 ... max 15.2(Feb) and min -17.7 (Jan) ... 20 cm snow ... 75kt wind gust

    A really cold spell in January but mild otherwise mostly. December wettest month with storms.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ____________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ -5.2 _ 138 _ 92 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.5 Min. 2.3, No

    rest of winter IMT 4.6, 5.5 ... PRC 115, 120 ... max 14.8 (Feb) and min -8.8 (Jan) ... 8 cm snow ... 78 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal____________ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -4.0 _ 125 _ 95 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 8.0 Min. 1.0, No

    rest of winter IMT 5.2, 5.2 ... PRC 099, 105 ... max 15.0 (Feb) and min -6.5 (Jan) ... 10 cm snow ... 79 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29____________ 5.6 _ 12.0 _ -6.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 10.0 Min. -4.0, No


  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Bazler _____ 5.0 _ 14.0_ -8.1 _ 110 _ 110 ___ Max 5.2 Min -2.3 Yes Johnstown Castle,

    Winter IMT 2.1 4.2 ... PRC 080, 090 ... max (As Dec)min -13.5(Jan) ... 27.0 cm snow ... 78 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn __ (Dec) _ 6.8 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 150 _ 85 ___Bonus max 12.5 Min 5.5, No
    No entry for the winter season.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____________ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ -5.2 _ 120 _ 110 ____Dublin Airport Max. 6.0 Min. -1.6 Yes (Knock)

    rest of winter IMT 4.0, 4.5 ... PRC 085, 090 ... min -8.1 (Jan) ... 12.0 cm snow ... 70 kt wind gust

    (Max is 14.7 in December)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____________ 5.7 _ 15.3 _ -5.2 _ 135 _ 090 _ Dub AP Max 8.1 Min 2.3 _ No

    Winter IMT 4.8, 3.2 ... PRC 105, 075 ... max 16.2 (Feb) and min -9.6 (Feb) ... 23.0 cm snow ... 79 kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.9° ___ 14.9 ___ -6.0 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 9.9 ___ 4.0 ___ No.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts____________ 5.6 _ 14.2 _ -4.3 _ 100 _ 95 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 9.1 Min. 1.5, No

    rest of winter IMT 4.7, 4.5 ... PRC 090, 110 ... max 16.3 (Jan) and min -5.2 (Jan) ... 10 cm snow ... 69 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____6.0___14.3°___-6.0°___90___100___DA (8.5°<--->2.7°)____No.

    IMT 4.4, 4.2: Max 13.5. Min -6.8. PRC 90, 90. 20cms. 68kt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ____________ 5.6 _ 15.8 _ -6.8_ 113 _ 94 ___ 6.5 2.0 No


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610__________6.0_14.2_-5.5_124_104_Dublin Airport Max. 7.4, Min. 3.0, No


    Rest of winter IMT 4.4, 4.4, ... PRC 100, 095 ... max 15.0 (Feb), min -8.1 (Jan) ... 4cm snow ... 76kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    5.7_ 15.9_ -5.8_ 110 _ 92___Dublin Airport Max 6.5 Min 2.2 No


    Rest of winter IMT 4.3 4.6... PRC 109 095 ... max 15.9(Feb), min -8.9(Jan) ... 8Cm snow ... 70 kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,570 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 5.5 ____ 14.0 ____ -8.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 6.0, -4.0, yes

    Rest of winter ____ IMT 4.5, 5.0 ___ PRC 90, 90 ____ 16.0 (feb), -11.1 (Jan) ___ 30cms snow ___ 80kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCX_BXC____________ 5.5 _ 14.5_ -6.1 _ 90 _ 115 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.5 Min. 2.5, Yes, Knock.

    Rest of winter: IMT 4.6,4.2 ... PRC 085, 110 ... max 14.5 (DEC) and min -10.2 (Jan) ... 13 cm snow ... 80 kt wind gust


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John mac_____ 5.4 _ 14.0 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ Yes , Knock

    rest of winter IMT 5.0, 5.4 ... PRC 102, 090 ... max 15.0 (Feb) and min -8.0 (Jan) ... 13.0 cm snow ... 70 kt wind gust

    In before dropping points this month .. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,767 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ____ 5.2 ____ 13.5 ____ -6.0 ____ 95 ____ 112 ____ 6.0, Max 5.3 Min 1.2, No

    Rest of winter: IMT 4.3,4.0 ... PRC 095, 100 ... max 13.5 (DEC) and min -8.6 (Feb) ... 9 cm snow ... 73 kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _________ 5.6_ 14.4_-7.1_ 132_ 90____ Dublin Airport Max. 7.3 Min. -3.3, Yes! Knock (& hopefully some others...)

    rest of winter IMT 4.6, 4.8 ... PRC 90, 110 ... max 15.9(Feb) and min -9.4 (Jan) ... 41 cm snow ... 81kt wind gust


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3__________ 5.1 _ 14.5._ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ Dublin Airport Max. 7.8 Min. -3.5, yes


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 ____________ 4.7 _ 15.3 _ -9.0_ 120_ 090 _ Dub AP Max 3.3 Min -2.7 _ Yes at Dublin AP

    Rest of Winter IMT 1.1, 2.7 ... PRC 090, 120 ... max 15.5 (Feb) and min -18.3 (Jan) ... 37.0 cm snow ... 73 kt


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for December 2018

    FORECASTER _____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 25Dub Min _ Snow
    _________________________________________________________________


    Jpmarn __________6.8 _ 15.8 _ --5.0 _ 150 _ 085 ___12.5, 5.5 _____ No

    pauldry __________6.7 _ 14.7 _ --6.0 _ 135 _ 101 ___ 8.5, 4.0 _____ No

    Joe Public ________6.1 _ 14.9 _ --5.9 _ 127 _ 098 ___10.5, 5.2 _____ No

    Artane2002 ______ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ --5.2 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 6.0, --1.6 ____Yes _Knock

    MrSkinner _______ 6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, 2.7 ______No

    Adam240610_____ 6.0 _ 14.2 _ --5.5 _ 124 _ 104 ___ 7.4, 3.0 ______No

    Kindred Spirit _____5.9 _ 14.9 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 9.9, 4.0 _____ No

    M.T. Cranium ____ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 5.0, --2.0 ____ Yes _Knock

    Tae laidir ________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ --5.2 _ 138 _ 092 ___ 7.5, 2.3 _____ No

    sdanseo _________5.8 _ 14.2 _ --5.9 _ 112 _ 108 ___ 7.8, 3.0 ______ Yes _Ballyhaise

    200motels _______ 5.7_ 15.9 _ --5.8 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 6.5, 2.2 ______ No

    DOCARCH _______ 5.7 _ 15.3 _ --5.2 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 8.1, 2.3 ______ No

    waterways _______5.6 _ 15.8 _ --6.8 _ 113 _ 094 ___ 6.5, 2.0 ______ No

    ___ Con Sensus __ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 7.8, 2.0 ______ No

    Dacogawa _______ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ --7.1 _ 132 _ 090 ___ 7.3, --3.3 ____ Yes _Knock

    mickger844posts __5.6 _ 14.2 _ --4.3 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 9.1, 1.5 ______ No

    sryanbruen ______ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 6.1, 2.5 ______ No

    Dasa29__________5.6 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___10.0, -4.0 _____ No

    JCX_BXC ________ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ --6.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 7.5, 2.5 _____ Yes _Knock

    Rikand __________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 6.0, -4.0 _____ Yes

    ___ NormaL _____ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0, 2.0 ______ No

    Bsal ____________5.4 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 8.0, 1.0 ______ No

    John mac ________5.4 _ 14.0 _ --6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ tbd _________ Yes _Knock

    Rameire _________5.2 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 112 ___ 5.3, 1.2 _____ No

    Sunflower3 ______ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.8, --3.5 ____ Yes _Dub A

    Bazlers __________5.0 _ 14.0 _ --8.1 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 5.2, --2.3 ____Yes _J Castle

    BLIZZARD7 _ (-1) _4.7 _ 15.3 _ --9.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 3.3, --2.7 ____Yes _Dub A
    ________________________________________________________________________

    Notes to John mac (need Dub A 25th max and min from you) and thanks to both Rikand and sunflower3, now have your locations for possible snowfalls 24-25.

    Will p.m. if I don't hear back (p.m. me your added info if you wish) -- consensus for Dub 25th max min will be reset, currently estimated (assuming John mac will want lower than consensus as he predicts a snowfall). I may run out of edit time, if this consensus proves incorrect I will note it with the first week report.

    Welcome to Bazlers entering our monthly contest for the first time. This makes 25 entrants this month and so consensus (median value) is the 13th ranked forecast in each category.

    8 of 25 predict some measurable snow at some location 24th-25th (most said Knock). That makes "no" the Con Sensus forecast (17/25).

    The group consensus prediction for December appears to be a little milder than average, somewhat wet with average sunshine and temperature extremes (even a bit narrower range than normal perhaps).



    Table of forecasts for winter forecast contest 2018-19


    Forecasts are listed in order of winter mean temp (IMT) -- the winter mean temp and prc values are calculated from your monthly forecasts. If your DEC max or min are more extreme than what you mentioned for rest of winter, the DEC values enter the contest.


    FORECASTER _________ IMT ______________ PRC _________ MAX __ MIN ___SNOW (cm)_MAX GUST (kts)
    ________________________________________________________________________________________

    pauldry ___________ 6.7 5.4 5.2 5.77 __ 135 100 089 108 __ 15.2 _--17.7 __ 20.0 ____ 75

    Tae laidir __________5.9 4.6 5.5 5.33 __ 138 115 120 124 __ 14.8 __--8.8 ___ 8.0 ____ 78

    ___ NormaL _______ 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.30 __ 100 100 100 100 __ 15.5 __--9.0 __ 12.0 ____ 80

    Bsal ______________5.4 5.2 5.2 5.27 __ 125 099 105 110 __ 15.0 __--6.5 __ 10.0 ____ 79

    John mac __________5.4 5.0 5.4 5.27 __ 120 102 090 104 __ 15.0 __--8.0 __ 13.0 ____ 70

    sryanbruen ________ 5.6 4.9 4.6 5.03 __ 110 085 110 102 __ 15.3 __--7.2 ___ 3.0 ____ 84

    dacogawa _________ 5.6 4.6 4.8 5.00 __ 132 090 110 111 __ 15.9 __--9.4 __ 41.0 ____ 81

    rikand ____________ 5.5 4.5 5.0 5.00 ___090 090 090 090 __ 16.0 _--11.1 __ 30.0 ____ 80

    Joe Public __________6.1 3.9 4.8 4.93 __ 127 110 104 114 __ 14.9 __--8.9 __ 23.0 ____ 76

    Adam240610 _______ 6.0 4.4 4.4 4.93 __ 124 100 095 106 __ 15.0 __--8.1 ___ 4.0 ____ 76

    mickger844posts ____ 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.93 __ 100 090 110 100 __ 16.3 __--5.2 __ 10.0 ____ 69

    200motels _________ 5.7 4.3 4.6 4.87 __ 110 109 095 105 __ 15.9 __--8.9 ___ 8.0 ____ 70

    MrSkinner _________ 6.0 4.4, 4.2 4.87 __ 090 090 090 090 __ 14.3 __--6.8 __ 20.0 ____ 68

    Artane2002 ________ 6.0 4.0 4.5 4.83 __ 120 085 090 098 __ 14.7 __--8.1 __ 12.0 ____ 70

    M.T. Cranium _______5.9 3.0 5.5 4.80 __ 120 090 090 100 __ 15.0 _--12.0 __ 18.0 ____ 84

    JCX BXC ___________5.5 4.6 4.2 4.77 __ 090 085 110 095 __ 14.5 _--10.2 __ 13.0 ____ 80

    DOCARCH _________ 5.7 4.8 3.2 4.57 __ 135 105 075 105 __ 16.2 __--9.6 __ 23.0 ____ 79

    Rameire ___________5.2 4.3 4.0 4.50 __ 095 095 100 097 __ 13.5 __--8.6 ___ 9.0 ____ 73

    sdanseo ___________5.8 3.2 2.1 3.70 __ 112 103 085 100 __ 14.6 _--13.8 __ 29.0 ____ 81

    Bazlers ____________5.0 2.1 4.2 3.70 __ 110 080 090 093 __ 14.0 _--13.5 __ 27.0 ____ 78

    BLIZZARD7 ________ 4.7 1.1 2.7 2.83 __ 120 090 120 110 __ 15.5 _--18.3 __ 37.0 ____ 73

    _________________________________________________________________________

    Thanks for entering this winter forecast contest. I will be setting up a thread for it soon, deadline for entries or revisions will be Friday at 0300h (7th December), post any revisions you want to have either here or in that new thread (which will appear soon).

    Consensus values will be set when entries are closed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    A separate thread has been opened for the 2018-19 9th annual winter forecast contest. If you already entered here, no action required. You can edit your forecast to the contest deadline which is set for Thursday 1500h. I moved this forward to be out ahead of the windstorm situation expected Friday early morning hours.

    By edit, I guess I mean post any revisions, if you could still edit your post I might not see that.

    If you didn't enter the winter contest but would like to do so, enter here or over in the dedicated thread, either way I will incorporate your forecast into the table of forecasts (already created see above).

    Meanwhile, the MAX at Moore Park on both 1st and 2nd was highest in the country and 13.9 on Saturday 1st followed by 14.2 on Sunday 2nd.

    We won't need to be tracking the MIN for a while yet, probably, although I see it getting down below freezing overnight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Apologies....Dublin airport is location for snow..


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,570 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    sunflower3 wrote: »
    Apologies....Dublin airport is location for snow..

    same for me :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Moore Park -2.8 yesterday


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