Friday 22/11/2018

Auroras_encore

Dundalk 17:30- Lapilli 13/2
Dundalk 20:30- Suntory Times 13/2
Dundalk 21:00- Figure It Out 16/1
Dundalk 18:30 Carried 12/1

kiers47

Pretty interesting Novice Hurdle coming up here in Ascot.
Thomas Darby, Didtheyleaveyououtto, Commanche Red.

Thought CR was a decent each way bet at 5/1

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Pretty interesting Novice Hurdle coming up here in Ascot.
Thomas Darby, Didtheyleaveyououtto, Commanche Red.

Thought CR was a decent each way bet at 5/1

2 pretty decent horses there I'd say.

irishgoat

Fist bet of the day for me.

2.25 Catterick, Scented Lilly, around 4.4, the prices is a bit big for a substantial lay but I'm currently laying at that price, but hopefully it might come in a bit in price. Very wide open handicap and can't see it winning.

irishgoat

2.50 Ffos Las, very interesting race. Pen lane, I'm all for a horse rising in the weights for a good second, went from 118 to 124 for a good second but the long lay off puts me off, laying at around 4.2

I do think Gardiners hill will go very close and I did consider a win bet but I'll be happy if Pen lane gets beat.

The next few races look terrible for a win bet unfortunately

Francie Barrett

7:30 Dundalk - Looks to be serious money for the favourite in this race, House Call. Given what it's done and the price it's now at and the type of race this is, I can't really be having that, so will hope that there is value elsewhere. If you were to go by form, then the best horse in this race clearly has to be Stranagone who has two second place finishes in both runs over trip at Dundalk. Horse that beat it by 1/2 a length last time had an 80 rating slapped on it for that run and if anything, it was lucky to win after Stranagone finished a bit waywardly at the close. Not surprised that blinkers should be fitted after that run, so with the benefit those appendages and maybe a more patient ride, perhaps this one can go one better today. 7/2 best price.

ASOT

I'm going with Shes Got You on the 6:15. Gosden trained and half sister to Without Parole & Tamarkuz. Nice price at 3/1 if she has any of the ability of her half brothers.

mirwillbeback

Lads, if anyone saw the 1.40 race today, you’d have to taken by the winner Emitom.

I’ve watched his 3 runs so far and he looks a real quality horse.

Is there anyone on here with Ante Post knowledge as in, how would I find out if he is entered at Cheltenham (too soon?) or what races he’d likely run in based on other horses of similar qualities in the past? I really have no idea of ante post betting....

The real mccoy 91

ASOT wrote: »

I'm going with Shes Got You on the 6:15. Gosden trained and half sister to Without Parole & Tamarkuz. Nice price at 3/1 if she has any of the ability of her half brothers.

Wary of backing gosdens first time out they generally come on for the run

irishgoat

First fairly big bet of the day for me.

5.45 Wolves, Jadeerah, currently around 1.78 I'm laying. It could scoot in but I wasn't convinced by it's second and although it's a weak race I definitely won't be surprised if something can beat it. Having a fairly decent lay on it.

irishgoat

Good run by Jadeerah but I really think it needs a mile to be at it's best. Be interesting to see if Gosden runs it at a mile next time out.

I wrote Wolves instead of Kempton. I wonder is it possible to become dyslexic later on in life, I'm cocking up a lot lately with spellings, or else I'm losing my marbles totally.

irishgoat

One of the last 1 or 2 bets of the evening for me.

6.15 Kempton, Inhale. Currently around 2.56. I think it's 3rd was pretty decent. The Gosden horse will probably need a run or 2. If Inhale can build on it's good 3rd I think it'll win. Backing it to win.

irishgoat

Last bet of the night for me. Good luck to anyone who's continuing on.

6.45 Kempton, Aquanura. Had 3 runs, over 6f and 7f. I think it's best run was at 6f on good ground. Ran at 7f at Chelmsford and the run wasn't impressive at all. It is a nursery and it won't take something special to win it but I have a feeling if Aquanura, wasn't a Godolphin and appleby trained it's price would be a lot higher. Currently around 2.28, I'm laying.

Til tomorrow

Gavin "shels"

Francie Barrett wrote: »

7:30 Dundalk - Looks to be serious money for the favourite in this race, House Call. Given what it's done and the price it's now at and the type of race this is, I can't really be having that, so will hope that there is value elsewhere. If you were to go by form, then the best horse in this race clearly has to be Stranagone who has two second place finishes in both runs over trip at Dundalk. Horse that beat it by 1/2 a length last time had an 80 rating slapped on it for that run and if anything, it was lucky to win after Stranagone finished a bit waywardly at the close. Not surprised that blinkers should be fitted after that run, so with the benefit those appendages and maybe a more patient ride, perhaps this one can go one better today. 7/2 best price.

Was very unlucky - money came for him too with House Call a huge drifter.

irishgoat

I'm not backing in the 9. Dundalk but I'm amazed to see Anfaass so short even at 5.5 . I had it marked up at 12/1 or bigger this morning. Looking forward to seeing this. Be great training if it goes in but I can't see it happening.

robbiezero

Why is Hammersly Lakes rating so high (runs in 2.05 Ascot tomorrow). Just 3 pounds lower than Politologue and 18/1 vs 6/5.

irishgoat

robbiezero wrote: »

Why is Hammersly Lakes rating so high (runs in 2.05 Ascot tomorrow). Just 3 pounds lower than Politologue and 18/1 vs 6/5.

I think Hammersly Lakes is about right on 165 and I think Politologue is higher than 168 in the ratings after a decent win. If it was a handicap race with 2 horses similar with the weight there would be a good case. Tomorrows race is a class 1 though.

I just had a really quick look at the race but as far as I can see , when Hammersly Lakes last ran in a class 1 race it was pulled up off a mark of 155.
In reality I think Hammersly Lakes is a good handicapper and not much more.

Politologue on the other hand has been winning class 1's off 165 and now rated 168.

The difference between them is night and day.

robbiezero

irishgoat wrote: »

I think Hammersly Lakes is about right on 165 and I think Politologue is higher than 168 in the ratings after a decent win. If it was a handicap race with 2 horses similar with the weight there would be a good case. Tomorrows race is a class 1 though.

I just had a really quick look at the race but as far as I can see , when Hammersly Lakes last ran in a class 1 race it was pulled up off a mark of 155.
In reality I think Hammersly Lakes is a good handicapper and not much more.

Politologue on the other hand has been winning class 1's off 165 and now rated 168.

The difference between them is night and day.

Just seems a strange one to me. Beat Charbel by 5 lengths a few months ago giving him 5 pounds. Races off level weights with him tomorrow, is rated 6 pounds higher, yet 1 of them is 7/2 and the other is 18/1. Maybe I am asking stupid questions, fair enough if so.
168 would seem fairly right to me for Politologue, couldn't have him much higher if Altior is 175.

* I guess Charbel would still be progressing, still seems an unusual difference in price all the same.

irishgoat

Beat Charbel is a class 2. The last time charbel ran in a class 1 was at cheltenham and it was 28/1 and ran off 156. In my opinion charbel is only a 154 horse. Rated 159 tomorrow. Based on these stats both charble and hammersley lakes shouldn't be winning tomorrow. Having said that, then all the other things come into play like going and left/right handed tracks etc.. I haven't really looked at the race yet properly.

robbiezero

robbiezero wrote: »

Just seems a strange one to me. Beat Charbel by 5 lengths a few months ago giving him 5 pounds. Races off level weights with him tomorrow, is rated 6 pounds higher, yet 1 of them is 7/2 and the other is 18/1. Maybe I am asking stupid questions, fair enough if so.
168 would seem fairly right to me for Politologue, couldn't have him much higher if Altior is 175.

* I guess Charbel would still be progressing, still seems an unusual difference in price all the same.

Still baffled as to how that pig is rated 165. 10 pounds less than altior. looks a 145 horse.

irishgoat

robbiezero wrote: »

Still baffled as to how that pig is rated 165. 10 pounds less than altior. looks a 145 horse.

I think you're right, a fair mark is in the early 150's at best.

kiers47

robbiezero wrote: »

Still baffled as to how that pig is rated 165. 10 pounds less than altior. looks a 145 horse.

Probably a tad high but he won summer handicaps off 153 and 159 well enough. Not ideal as they are weaker but the handicapper has no choice but to put him up.