Thursday 22nd November

irishgoat

I'm in a bit of a rush this morning so just throw these up without reasons.

12.25 Market Rasen, Dandolo Du Gite, laying, currently around 3.2

12.45 Wincanton, Helf, laying this too, currently around 4.4 but I'm hoping it comes in a bit to 3.5'ish but even at 4.4 I'm laying.

1.45 Wincanton, Capeland, currently around 1.99, laying

2.15 Wincanton, Rhythm Is A Dancer, backing this to win with a fairly decent sized bet, currently around 1.67.

Good luck to anyone who's betting today!

kiers47

Interesting card in Thurles today.
1 i fancy in the 1.35
You'd be worried about the drift but Los Alamos i thought would go close at 7/2.
He is closely matched with Ozzies Way and i think he can overturn the lto form with him.

Irish Lass is not the most straightforward of mares and im convinced that Willies are running a slight bit below their best of late. Its an open enough race for a 5 runner event and tbh i thought Los Alamos would be vying for favoritism.

irishgoat

3.55 Wincanton, Now Look At Me, I heard this is very very useful. First double max or double my daily amount bet in awhile. It will really sting if it gets turned over. Around 1.8

ANDREWMUFC

Swansdown in the 5:30 has been hammered in. Open up at 5’s, now 10/11

kiers47

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

Swansdown in the 5:30 has been hammered in. Open up at 5’s, now 10/11

Is that Luca Cumani's last runner? I think it is.

ANDREWMUFC

kiers47 wrote: »

Is that Luca Cumani's last runner? I think it is.

It sure is. I think it’ll win tonigt off that current mark. Been running in Class 3 contests so far, drops into class 6

kiers47

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

It sure is. I think it’ll win tonigt off that current mark. Been running in Class 3 contests so far, drops into class 6

Ya hopefully he wins for him.
Always had a soft spot for some of his horses. Has had some great horses over the years. Hope he goes out on a high.

Mostly Harmless

irishgoat wrote: »

3.55 Wincanton, Now Look At Me, I heard this is very very useful. First double max or double my daily amount bet in awhile. It will really sting if it gets turned over. Around 1.8

"double max" is that not a contradiction in terms?

irishgoat

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

"double max" is that not a contradiction in terms?

I have a daily allowance each day, I bet a percentage of it per race depending how strong I feel about the selection. Occasionally I'll bet my whole allowance in one bet, if it loses I'm out, if it wins you know. I was told the horse was something really special and connections were backing it hard today. If fact I was told it wouldn't lose, but a horse is not a machine.

Don't worry, if I study the form for 4 or 5 hours a night I spent weeks devising my staking plan. It would have hurt if it got beat no doubt about it. But right now I'm quite happy.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I have a daily allowance each day, I bet a percentage of it per race depending how strong I feel about the selection. Occasionally I'll bet my whole allowance in one bet, if it loses I'm out, if it wins you know. I was told the horse was something really special and connections were backing it hard today. If fact I was told it wouldn't lose, but a horse is not a machine.

Don't worry, if I study the form for 4 or 5 hours a night I spent weeks devising my staking plan. It would have hurt if it got beat no doubt about it. But right now I'm quite happy.

I think what he is getting at is there is no such thing as double your max.

It is like saying i am going to have 200% of my bankroll on this horse. It is not possible.


In any case nice win there.

irishgoat

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

Swansdown in the 5:30 has been hammered in. Open up at 5’s, now 10/11

I'm backing this pretty hard now, hope it wins.

irishgoat

Pig of ride by murphy.

posturingpat

That mustve Been painful to watch for Mr Cumani.

kiers47

That was unfortunate. Probably the best horse in the race but still clueless and pretty green. Hopefully LC enjoys retirement.

ANDREWMUFC

Stupid gobs*te gave it too much to do

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

Pig of ride by murphy.

Absolute crap. The horse was a victim of his own in-experience. Murphy was at her well before they turned in. He only got the message late

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

Absolute crap. The horse was a victim of his own in-experience. Murphy was at him well before they turned in. He only got the message late

The horse was primed to win today, well trained at home. Yes a bit green'ish but that far out the back ?

I'm taking my life into my hands in the next race. Last bet of the night for me. To me Cantiniere, is as close to a cert that I can find. Around 2.2. now, the only danger I can see is dopey murphy.

kiers47

Horses are primed to win every day it's not a case of load it up and get as much as you can on. Well with most anyway. Horses sometimes just don't play ball.
Blaming the jockey is such an easy cop out these days. I thought the ride was fine.

irishgoat

He's renowned for doing this type of things and getting horses beat. Back in October a horse called Broughton Excels, smashed in the betting and similar happened. As follows : Off the pace towards rear on inside, angled out 2f out, ran on inside final furlong, went 2nd towards finish, no chance to challenge.

I do back him but I hate backing him and also S Donohoe. The do a great job at getting horses beat, so did oul Ted Durcan, how he was retained is beyond me.

You probably like them jockeys Kiers and thats fine. I have an open mind with jockeys, but when it becomes repetitive with them cocking up, I dislike them.

irishgoat

I'm not betting in the 6.30 but finoah rated 87, I think thats about right, but oul murphy on isaan queen I think is better than 86 and with the weight I think it's better than finoah. I was going to lay finoah but I'll just sit and watch it. I know it's not an handicap but I still work off the marks.

kiers47

As I've said numerous times on here I rarely if ever blame a jockey for a losing bet. Sometimes you just place a bad bet, own it move on. Sometimes you place a good bet and things don't work out and it is the horses fault like imo happened here.

In terms of rating Oisin Murphy. He is a class jockey. You don't just land yourself in these positions of being able to ride the best of the best by being average. He is in the top 5 jockeys riding in the UK and Ireland.

irishgoat

I definitely 100% don't have him in the first 5 best jockeys.

I still can't understand how you see his ride as Ok. Cumani is retiring, the horse was fit and well, hammered all day. If I had to be pickey I'd say the horse is bred to win over further and I did take that into consideration but in a mickey mouse race like that, it really should have won. It didn't do me any damage financially, I can just see it was a terrible ride.

kiers47

That's fair enough but you would be in the minority considering he has one of the top 5 jobs here someone is paying him to do it.

I watched it again I stand by my first assessment. Horse was green as grass. She had to be woken up before they turned in. Not only that but she hung left the whole way up the straight even into the whip where Murphy had to stop riding him twice to correct her. The horse was every bit as much to blame as the jockey. It was an ok ride. It certainly wasn't a pig of a ride.

We will have to agree to disagree.

irishgoat

Fair enough. I'm out for the night, just going to watch the remaining races. I was hoping that 'Walk on Walter' would be shorter in the 7.0 @ wolves, I might have had a lay, I don't think it's well handicapped but @ 6.2'ish I'll leave it alone.

Til tomorrow

posturingpat

Dont Think you're alone.

kiers47

Just to add to this discussion.
Reading quotes from Cumani this morning he said the filly was beaten by both the draw and her inexperience and he was frustrated but happy with how she finished out the race.

irishgoat

He wouldn't blame the jockey in public anyway.

I didn't bet, but I was watching the remainder of the racing last night and another horse that was smashed in the betting was Laieth ridden by murphy. Beaten a neck. No doubt he done his best to win, but the chap lacks a 'clock' in his head that other great jockeys have.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

He wouldn't blame the jockey in public anyway.

I didn't bet, but I was watching the remainder of the racing last night and another horse that was smashed in the betting was Laieth ridden by murphy. Beaten a neck. No doubt he done his best to win, but the chap lacks a 'clock' in his head that other great jockeys have.

This is all your opinion.

Imo and in many others he is a fine jockey

irishgoat

Yes you're right, like everything in life opinions are and will be divided.

kiers47

Indeed