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Wed 21st Nov '18

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  • 20-11-2018 9:36pm
    #1
    maximo31
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭


    Was told a while back to keep an eye out for a horse who happens to be running tomorrow. Bit of a gamble expected.......
    Emilyogue 2.55 Hexham. I've backed it EW at 16/1.


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    #2
    ANDREWMUFC
    Closed Accounts Posts: 484 ✭✭ANDREWMUFC


    maximo31 wrote: »
    Was told a while back to keep an eye out for a horse who happens to be running tomorrow. Bit of a gamble expected.......
    Emilyogue 2.55 Hexham. I've backed it EW at 16/1.

    Cowardly bookies shortenting it already, 12/1 general, 11’s in places


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    #3
    maximo31
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭maximo31


    Beau Warrior to follow up on his debut win i reckon here 6.30.
    I like the chances of young Crosses's horses EW in the 7.00 and 9.00. Singles and a double.


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    #4
    Auroras_encore
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 568 ✭✭✭Auroras_encore


    Dundalk 18:00- Three Majors 13/2
    Dundalk 19:30- Cappadocia 14/1
    Dundalk 20:00- Rock In Society 14/1
    Dundalk 20:30- Miss Louise 12/1


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    #5
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    1.30 Warwick, Biddy the boss, currently around 2.52, max lay for me on this. A bit of info I got, I hope it's spot on.


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    #6
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    2.25 Hexham, Kilcullen Flem. Currently around 3.9 but I'm laying and I'm hoping it comes in a bit but I still think 3.9 is low enough for a lay. The horse is a bit of a specialist at hexham and I've no doubt it will win again 'sometime.' To me it's not well handicapped and off a long break, laying.

    2.35 Warwick, Erick Le Rouge, currently around 2.7, I think this is pretty well in. Back this to win.


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    #7
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    One at Dundalk seen as price is now on way out..

    6.00 - Bonnington Lass: Has caught the eye a few times in past, not least when making some strong late gains and challenging very wide over a furlong shorter at Dundalk LTO. US pedigree that is very much geared towards the dirt so this really should be her optimal surface (in this part of the world) on breeding. Should get a nice pace to aim at with likes of Pari Passu, Three Majors, An Sighduir all likely to want to be at the head of affairs. Obviously a very limited filly but has shown enough to make me believe she can win a race of this standard and Marnane no mug.


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    #8
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    Last bet for me until this evening.

    3.10 Warwick, Beat that. Currently around 2.1ish, I'm laying this. 'Used to be a good horse,' now absolutely nothing special. I'm very very surprised it's so low in the betting. The second fav went up from 117 to 137 for beating, beat that and looks like it might go in again but for me 2.1 is a great lay on beat that.


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    #9
    maximo31
    Registered Users Posts: 1,017 ✭✭✭maximo31


    maximo31 wrote: »
    Was told a while back to keep an eye out for a horse who happens to be running tomorrow. Bit of a gamble expected.......
    Emilyogue 2.55 Hexham. I've backed it EW at 16/1.

    16/1 into 5/1 and hangs on to third. For a brief moment mid race i thought i was watching THE machine!!!
    Few quid profit........


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    #10
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    5.10 Kempton. Headman, I backed it first time out when it won, I think it's something very special. Max win bet currently around 1.48

    5.30 Dundalk, Hasselnott, around 3.4 and I'm laying. Big priced winner over c/d. First run for new stable/lyons today. I know lyons is good but this horse is really nothing at all. If this was trained by a mediocre trainer the price would be doubled or trebled.

    6.00 Dundalk, Voyage of Discovery, currently around 4.6 I'll be laying, be nice if it comes into 3.5 or so but regardless I cant' see it winning a pretty tough handicap.

    Good luck to anyone who's betting this evening!


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    #11
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    irishgoat wrote: »
    Last bet for me until this evening.

    3.10 Warwick, Beat that. Currently around 2.1ish, I'm laying this. 'Used to be a good horse,' now absolutely nothing special. I'm very very surprised it's so low in the betting. The second fav went up from 117 to 137 for beating, beat that and looks like it might go in again but for me 2.1 is a great lay on beat that.

    Just an FYI i know the race is over but on the point of Exitas's handicap mark.
    He didnt go from 117 to 137 for beating Beat That, he hasnt been rated 117 over fences for over a year.
    He went from 137 to 147 for beating Beat That.


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    #12
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Just an FYI i know the race is over but on the point of Exitas's handicap mark.
    He didnt go from 117 to 137 for beating Beat That, he hasnt been rated 117 over fences for over a year.
    He went from 137 to 147 for beating Beat That.

    Your 100% right, it doesn't make sense what I wrote because when he beat, beat that, it was rated 137. It then went to 147 which was today. I thought it was still OK off the 147. I'll keep an eye on it. I did noticed a stack of money for beat taht just before the off. I think I'm losing my mind, thanks for correcting me.


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    #13
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    irishgoat wrote: »
    Your 100% right, it doesn't make sense what I wrote because when he beat, beat that, it was rated 137. It then went to 147 which was today. I thought it was still OK off the 147. I'll keep an eye on it. I did noticed a stack of money for beat taht just before the off. I think I'm losing my mind, thanks for correcting me.

    np. Be rare enough to go up 20lbs for winning a handicap.
    His 117 ratings was his hurdles rating on his second last outing which is different to his chase rating. Now up to 126 over hurdles.


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    #14
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    kiers47 wrote: »
    np. Be rare enough to go up 20lbs for winning a handicap.
    His 117 ratings was his hurdles rating on his second last outing which is different to his chase rating. Now up to 126 over hurdles.

    100% agree. I actually like to see a horse going up in the ratings even by 10. I especially like if a horse rises in the rating for a second or 3rd of 4th. Before Exitas beat, beat that at Chepstow it went up from 125 to 132 for an 'ok' win. Then it ran second and the handicapper knew there was more left so for that second it went up from 132 to 137, and then to 147. You could argue that it's at the end of it's tether but even at 147 I think it will win 1 or 2 more in the near future.

    Regarding todays race, when I saw the cluster of 3000's going in right at the off for beat that I had a feeling it was his day but I didn't trade off.


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    #15
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    Just on the subject or ratings. The 6.20 at wolves. I'm not backing in it but the fav Calvinist I don't really see how it can win the race. Started the year off 60, dropped, dropped, dropped and at around 53 seemed to show something, went up 1 for a second and 3 for a win and another 1 for a second. As I said I like to see a horse rising but to me it's back where it started at the start of the year when it showed nothing, so how can it win ? It's too big for a lay at 7.0 but just thinking out loud.


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    #16
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    6.50 Wolves, Earl of Bunnacurry, I will have a play on this, currently 2.0. Not sure if a rating of 52 is sufficent to win this. Currently laying it.


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    #17
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭irishgoat


    Seems to be good support for the above but the uk handicapper is no fool, looking forward to this race.


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    #18
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Thats a Horse that'll put up a sequence. Laughed at them in the end.


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    #19
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    I quite like Sleepy Head at the prices in the next in Dundalk. He enjoys it around here and while he has yet to run at 12f here he has run twice at that distance on turf and he stays fine. Bits of 8/1 15/2 out there. Very fair.


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    #20
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,454 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    maximo31 wrote: »
    Was told a while back to keep an eye out for a horse who happens to be running tomorrow. Bit of a gamble expected.......
    Emilyogue 2.55 Hexham. I've backed it EW at 16/1.
    Horse travelled like an absolute dream, maybe the ground was too soft, or the trip too long...


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    #21
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,454 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    A Few Bob short in the last at 10/1 for me, very close in the last bunch of races, so a little surprised to see this drifting out so far. Think the trip will suit, just not hugely gone on the claimer on board. Hopefully can sneak a place at a big price.


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    #22
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    irishgoat wrote: »
    6.50 Wolves, Earl of Bunnacurry, I will have a play on this, currently 2.0. Not sure if a rating of 52 is sufficent to win this. Currently laying it.

    It was a handicap. You want a lower rating not a higher one


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    #23
    onetwouniflu
    Registered Users Posts: 6 ✭onetwouniflu


    maximo31 wrote: »
    Was told a while back to keep an eye out for a horse who happens to be running tomorrow. Bit of a gamble expected.......
    Emilyogue 2.55 Hexham. I've backed it EW at 16/1.

    Any word for this today? Running again at Newcastle (14.20), back down in trip - 3/1.


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    #24
    ASOT
    Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    onetwouniflu wrote: »
    Any word for this today? Running again at Newcastle (14.20), back down in trip - 3/1.
    maximo31 wrote: »
    I'm told Emilysogue is trying again today. 2.20 Newcastle. 3/1.
    Got small word on 2 others that i'll be having small bets on but wouldn't be getting carried away on! :
    Russellstown 12.55 Tramore , 18/1.
    Keep Rolling 3.35 Warwick. 8/1.
    I'll be having few quid EW on Hardbought in the 3.10 Tramore as well.
    Will like the ground ,below last winning marks , with a new trainer and Davy R booked to ride.16/1.

    From today's thread.


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