King George 26th December

irishgoat

Anyone backed ante post or have any strong fancies ?

In my opinion it was hard to look past Might Bite on paper but I've talked to 2+ pretty shrewd people on separate occasions and are/will be laying. So at around 3.10 as of now I'll be laying it.

I'm struggling to find an alternative though. I 100% can't see Waiting Patiently winning, currently too big to lay at around 9.0.

Maybe Native River might be worth a bit of an E.W, around 10/1 on the exchange but from now to Xmas I'll be laying Mite Bite.

ANDREWMUFC

Might Bite will win on Saturday. There’s better lay’s out there than laying MB.

Did the two punters give you a reason as to why they’re laying him ?

irishgoat

I didn't even look at Saturday's race.

I don't really back ante post I got my ass kicked a few years ago on an ante post win bet but both sound confident and it's good enough for me.

I was speaking to a Cheltenham winning jockey, he's an amature and also a horse breeder from a different county and both told me not to back it for the king george. The only down side is, the particular jockey told me getabird was a certainty on the actual day of the festival at this year's meeting. I lost a bundle on it but the horse did pull really bad from the start of the race but 9/10 he's bang on with me.

They did give particular reasons but I dont' want to post them on here. They are only opinions but I don't want to land them in any bother.

Closer to the date the form and statistics will make more sense to me but I'll lay from now.

@ ANDREWMUFC, what price is it for Saturday ?

ANDREWMUFC

10/11 now bud. In my opinion, with the ground promised to be good; good to soft, Might Bite will hack up but I won’t be backing him now at that price.

Missed the 2/1 yesterday, fuming with myself

irishgoat

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

10/11 now bud. In my opinion, with the ground promised to be good; good to soft, Might Bite will hack up but I won’t be backing him now at that price.

Missed the 2/1 yesterday, fuming with myself

I've spent the past hour or so looking at form at stats for the betfair chase on Saturday. On the form it should win (Mite Bite) but I disagree. I know its not a handicap but on ratings it should win. He had it on 169 at the start of the year, I have it on 163'ish on my ratings. If I'm correct Bristol De Mai, Politologue and Native River are ahead of it on ratings and one of them should beat it. Big'ish lay for me.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I've spent the past hour or so looking at form at stats for the betfair chase on Saturday. On the form it should win (Mite Bite) but I disagree. I know its not a handicap but on ratings it should win. He had it on 169 at the start of the year, I have it on 163'ish on my ratings. If I'm correct Bristol De Mai, Politologue and Native River are ahead of it on ratings and one of them should beat it. Big'ish lay for me.

There is something fundamentally wrong with your ratings if you have either Bristol De Mai or Politologue ahead of Might Bite. Maybe if you are looking at BDM in the exclusion of Haydock then you could make a case. But he was absolutely kicked out of the way by Might Bite at the grand national meeting in april.
Politologue is a good horse but he is unproven beyond 2m5f and they did express doubts about him staying 3miles last year. There is no chance he can be considered a 170 horse at the moment and Might Bite is definitely that. Look at the horses in behind in last years GC. Annibale Fly 4th in the national, Road to Respect won the G1 JNWine, Djackadam placed in 3 gold cups, Definitely Red won the G2 Charlie Hall. I am not sure on what races you are using to place Politologue or BDM ahead of Might Bite but to me it makes little sense in factual form.
Both Might Bite and Native River should be a good bit clear on all ratings systems that is absolutely certain. Whether they win or not is another thing.

RivetingRoger

Hard to call anything until we know the going and the field
I will say this tho, if it was run this weekend, on current ground, MB would win by 7/8L from any of the other protagonists (presuming FP wont be going in it)
On good ground NR wouldn't get near MB


Anyone who thinks Bristol de Mai could compete with MB on goodish ground really needs to pick another sport to gamble on



Has Pat Kelly laid out any plans for Percy this year? Any chance we could see him rock up to Kempton??

kiers47

Just to add to this. There was little chance of it anyway but Nicky said at course gallop in Newbury this morning that he would rather run Altior in the King Stand than the King George for anyone wanting him to step up in trip for this.
Granted Nicky has a history for changing his mind on these things but id imagine Altior will be keeping firmly to 2 miles and tbh i really dont see why anyone would even suggest stepping a Champion Chase winner up in trip while still at his peak.

akelly02

My favourite race of the year on my favourite day of the year. Im backing him before saturday before he wins and is cut to odds on .

i made the mistake of backing something else last year, looking for something to beat it, i wont be doing the same this year.

abarkie

irishgoat wrote: »

ANDREWMUFC wrote: »

10/11 now bud. In my opinion, with the ground promised to be good; good to soft, Might Bite will hack up but I won’t be backing him now at that price.

Missed the 2/1 yesterday, fuming with myself

I've spent the past hour or so looking at form at stats for the betfair chase on Saturday. On the form it should win (Mite Bite) but I disagree. I know its not a handicap but on ratings it should win. He had it on 169 at the start of the year, I have it on 163'ish on my ratings. If I'm correct Bristol De Mai, Politologue and Native River are ahead of it on ratings and one of them should beat it. Big'ish lay for me.

What price are you laying it at for Saturday?

sweeneed

think theres value in bellshill ew. the field will cut up as always and seems he is definitely going there. not sure what sort of ground he likes but we cant predict ground this far away anyhow!

irishgoat

Politologue 168 I think is fair, Native river beat might bite by 4+ lengths off 166, might bite up to 172 and won at Aintree. Native river up from 166 to 176 after beating Might bite. Just my opinion but I don't think Native river or might bite are that high in the ratings. At chelthenmham the hill has to be taken into account too, a lot of horses can't stay up the hill. I have a feeling it will be a different story on Saturday. I just think there are a few horses all around the same rating so Might bite a certainty, I highly doubt it.

irishgoat

abarkie wrote: »

What price are you laying it at for Saturday?

Well it's 2.28 as of now in a weak market, I'm feeding it in at the minute. I'm also laying for december because if it gets beat on Saturday the price will drift significantly.

kiers47

IMO Politologues rating is a tad high and i do like the horse. But i couldn't be entertaining him being within 4lbs of Might Bite on what we seen last year.
Added to that i would imagine there is a fair chance he goes to that race in Ascot on Saturday.
I get it Might Bites price is short hardly a certainty as you say i dont really consider even money shots certainties they are usually 50:50 chances last i checked. I wouldnt even consider a 1/5 shot a certainty. But anyway i digress he has been beaten by 1 horse in basically 2.5 years and another time fell when a fence clear in Kempton. His rating i think is more than fair.
His price is probably a bit on the short side considering he still has a bit to find with Native River but his rating is certainly fair in my eyes.

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

IMO Politologues rating is a tad high and i do like the horse. But i couldn't be entertaining him being within 4lbs of Might Bite on what we seen last year.
Added to that i would imagine there is a fair chance he goes to that race in Ascot on Saturday.
I get it Might Bites price is short hardly a certainty as you say i dont really consider even money shots certainties they are usually 50:50 chances last i checked. I wouldnt even consider a 1/5 shot a certainty. But anyway i digress he has been beaten by 1 horse in basically 2.5 years and another time fell when a fence clear in Kempton. His rating i think is more than fair.
His price is probably a bit on the short side considering he still has a bit to find with Native River but his rating is certainly fair in my eyes.

You have fair points. An even money shot is not even 50/50 after you take the over round into it. An even money shot with the bookmakers should be priced around 5/4 maybe. Betfair is just that, it's fair.

It will be a good marker on Saturday anyway when the result is in, even for next year. Good luck what ever your backing in it.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

You have fair points. An even money shot is not even 50/50 after you take the over round into it. An even money shot with the bookmakers should be priced around 5/4 maybe. Betfair is just that, it's fair.

It will be a good marker on Saturday anyway when the result is in, even for next year. Good luck what ever your backing in it.

No bet Saturday for me. Not my type of betting heat. Best of luck though.