Question regarding Brexit

ardinn

So i had a quick look for a similar topic on here so apologies if this has been discussed already.

I import a small amount of stock from the uk. About 150k sterling. At this time of year there are trade shows offering summer season deals etc which are very good value and i usually do a good order to avail of the discounts.

Im tentative at present as im not sure how brexit will impact on the £. If I wait till march, the pound could lose serious value, making it a profitable hold off, but then im wondering will trade tarriffs be introduced and will that drive up the price of goods instead.

Im not very well up on the whole thing, any fairly reasonable predictions or likely outcomes would be welcome.

wexie

I'd be interested to see the opinions on this, as it stands I'm not sure if anyone can give a reasonable forecast of what's going to happen.

From reading the various news articles it seems that a lot of experts think the way things are going to the most likely scenarios are either a no deal Brexit or no Brexit at all.
The EU seems to be fairly adamant there can be no further negotiations and, certainly for the moment, it's not looking like the current deal is likely to be accepted.

Peregrinus

If there's a no-deal brexit, tariffs will come in on 29 March next. At the same rates as currently applies to goods from any third country that does not have a trade deal with the EU.

On the other hand, if there's a no-deal brexit the pound sterling will likely tank. Depending on the tariff rate for the goods that you are importing, the net effect could still be that the goods are cheaper than today. Or not.

On the other other hand, there may be delay/disruption in transport/deliver networks, which may be of concern to you if your goods are perishable, or your business model involves just-in-time delivery.

On the other other other hand, there might not be a no-deal brexit at all.

What it comes down to is a gamble. You know the terms and the price on which you could buy the goods today. You don't know the terms or the price on which you will be able to buy them in a few months time. The terms or price might be better then. On the other hand, they might not. Nobody can tell you, and anybody who tells you they can tell you is a chancer.

It really comes down to your attitude to risk and your taste for a punt. Only you can decide that.

ardinn

Thanks for those, goods are not perishable but you bring up a good point about delays, its an interesting one, and i dont expect anyone to have yhe right answer, just looking for opinions on the possibilities.

Geuze

The GBP fell the day after the vote, and the weeks following, from approx 75p to 85p and more.

If no deal is agreed and passed, expect GBP to weaken back towards 90p.

If the draft deal passes, expect GBP to hold at 88p, or even move towards 85p??

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html

ardinn

ardinn wrote: »

Thanks for those, goods are not perishable but you bring up a good point about delays, its an interesting one, and i dont expect anyone to have yhe right answer, just looking for opinions on the possibilities.

It's not a question that's really possible to answer without specific data, all we can comment upon are the anticipated characteristics of a no-deal Brexit, if that occured.

A few people have already mentioned the benefits of sterling depreciation (for imports to Ireland) offsetting the price of tariffs, but I think we also need to look at the wider implications for Irish importers - such as of capital losses in the UK, and the sectoral reallocation of jobs, and what this will mean for a reduced capacity in the British economy, within certain sectors.

Given the potential adjustment costs in the event of a hard brexit, therefore, I think you need to seriously consider whether any firms you're contracting with will still be in business in the UK later this year - whether they'll have relocated, or simply lost their capacity.

micky jammy delahunty

ardinn wrote: »

Im tentative at present as im not sure how brexit will impact on the £. If I wait till march, the pound could lose serious value, making it a profitable hold off, but then im wondering will trade tarriffs be introduced and will that drive up the price of goods instead.

It highly depends on what you're importing....and where the UK production factors are coming from. The situation in Ireland is the government have already spent close to have a billion subsidising growers of agricultural product to the UK this year, just to get them to plant a crop this year...In the UK the government has done nothing like this, so Irish growers may have a double bonanza; funds from the government and the advantage that major growers in the UK haven't taken the risk this year in planting. (Yes...The Irish tax payer has been giving the Brits a free lunch this year)

If a Brexit looks possible, forget a reality of borders and tariffs, Sterling will collapse, and you'll get a one time, and one time only bonanza; your supplier may not be able to deliver, or they'll have a warehouse of stock they're willing to accept anything for to take off their hands....Cash being king, in the Hunger Games..