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Bets that are always or nearly certain to come in and betting strategies

  • 11-11-2018 5:35pm
    #1
    Guesswork
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8 ✭


    Been thinking about this lately and how people approach betting.

    I know alotnof people love the big odds and long shots with the hope of scoring big but generally they are few and far between to come in

    I was watching the boxing last night and would for all major events and it got me thinking that I can't remember the last time the bookies were wrong on boxing favourites

    More often than not then always are right so I got me thinking do you gamble on the favourites alot?

    Would you build up a roll and add a few long ****s\outsider bets in

    How do you approach betting ? Any strategy?

    Just curious


Comments

  • #2
    bobwilliams
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,050 ✭✭✭bobwilliams


    Firstly I an lucky in the sense that I have a bit of spare cash that enables me to never chase my losses.

    I believe the mindset that you approach betting with will have a lot to do with the profit/loss outcome.

    I am happy to go in and do a few bets,I enjoy it,I get good value for money.

    Over the last six months or so I have started to study races a lot more, my strategy is not very scientific but it seems to be working.

    Contrary to many I stick to poor handicaps,usually grade 5 and 6 and concentrate mostly on the all weather in England.

    I only back closers,I will be patient and not back in races or meetings where the track isn't suiting closers,I study the card and if my horse is one of many closers I will leave it.

    I have one horse for tomorrow,even though in up against a strong fav I will stick this horse in my notebook,small bet tomorrow due to the nature of the race with so many unexposed runners.

    The horse is Janabiya in the 5 45 at Chelmford,if he doesn't win tomorrow no worries but he will win in the next 3 and I will build stakes accordingly.


  • #3
    Outlaw Pete
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,423 ✭✭✭✭Outlaw Pete


    The problem with favs is you have to right more than you're wrong to make a profit.

    If you're backing Even money shots (for example) you need to get five out of every ten selections right, just to break even...... but with long shots one in ten right could see you turn a profit.

    Seems to me though that most favs lose and most long shots do too..... so there is some logic to backing horses somewhere in-between the two as that would appear to ensure that you'll get your fair share of winners just on statistical probability alone.... and decently priced too.... as opposed to just back favs blind, which for sure is the fastest way to the poorhouse.

    I used to have a system years back of removing the fav and 2nd fav and then backing the horse that had clocked the fastest time in the last month. Won a rake of cash initially but then kept hitting the crossbar so gave up on it.


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