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Handicapping and 'mark,'s what's the story ?

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  • 11-11-2018 3:42am
    #1
    irishgoat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭


    I fell asleep too early on the form and as I have some free time I thought I'd ask the question/opinion on the subject. What's your take on it ? Do you take the official ratings as gospel when summing up a horses chance ? Or do you do a bit of maneuvering on your own eyes in previous form ? Just handicaps, or do you bring it to ALL races after their 3 runs etc...

    Some people questioned me on group races etc.. on ratings as if they didn't matter regarding weight. That's all well and good but the fact of the matter is if a horse rated 152 but should only be 140'ish, it shouldn't be in the race and with weight differences it makes a massive difference.

    I've been keeping my own handicap ratings for the past previous years but I do take into consideration the UK handicapper, he's excellent at his job.

    In my own betting I've went head to head with the UK and Irish handicapper and I've won my fair share of battles and also lost my fair share. I stick with my own ratings but I always look at the OR.

    A few tips regarding handicapping that will be of value to you is ...

    If you see a horse getting rating after only 2 races instead of 3 it's a seriously good horse and will most likely win on it's 3rd start.

    If a horse hasn't won a races but goes up in the ratings by 4 or 5 for it's placed or unplaced effort you know it's decent.

    If you see a horse winning a mickey mouse race by 1/2 length (class 4 or 5 ) but going up 9 or so, you know the handicapper is onto them and will probably win next time out because even if it finishes in the place it will rise again.

    Golden rule! Last years marks are lasts years full stop. Doesn't matter if a horse was top rated 169 last year after winning on the trot. Look what the handicapper gives it at the start of the year, that is the real OR for this year going forward.
    If a horse was 169 last year after winning a race but this year 150 OR against 145 horses with weight difference.... make your own decision on weight and fitness and going.

    'Regardless' of handicap mark for whatever reason, if a horse finishes in front of another horse once it will more than likely do it again. This is more to do with statistics but fly's in the face of handicapping.


    Horse racing has and always will be crooked, but the above are some pointers when connections or trainers can't hold back if they have a decent horse, they have to go forward.

    Just my opinions, I'll look forward to yours.


    Edit. I just want to put a little edit in here. I know it's very debatable whether these ratings mean just handicaps or all races, as in reality horses do run off a rating and just weight in a non handicap. In my opinion of course it's taken into account always (absolutely), hence wanting the views of members here.


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