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Presidential election

  • 23-10-2018 11:48pm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭

    OK, I had little interest til caseygate, but suddenly it got interesting.

    Bookies tend not to be great at political pricing.

    Last weekend's 16/1 on Casey coming 2nd was phenomenal value, current 9/4, less so.

    But even with all the 2nd place changes, bookies have almost ignored the 1st pref of higgins.

    I reckon many voters won't bother leading to a low turnout affecting Mdh and 20/1 on 40-50% 1st pref is unbelievable value.

    Tis just an auld opinion. - but if Casey comes second to Mdh on 40%-50%, I'll be jumping a lot.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr

    It's an interesting watch, all within the space of a few days, and mainly stemming from a singular soundbite.

    Of course the value went out the window on the Monday evening, with Coral the very last shop to remove (their 66/1) around 5pm (from memory).
    @81 was the general morning price, even for a while, after he confirmed he'd run.

    The only market have seen for MDH 1stPref is 20/1 but it's for 45(not 40)-50%.
    But the 15.0 price is available elsewhere for that wider margin.

    The only real market of any great appeal was that W/O, but was also the only one unavailable in an acca stack.
    The current best viable market, might be the (short) PC 1stPref 7.55%+. An unattractive 1.83.

    If the wee man wins, perhaps it will only be by small margins, (50-60% 1stPref) @5-10 for upper/lower 5% ranges.
    Just 3.5 for the full 10% range elsewhere.

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,992 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2

    Gallagher now getting very tempting to win the betting Michael D market.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr

    ^ Yep if you already have PC in the W/O market, then SG is the only viable risk reduction option, but is only 2.2.

    One new market that has just appeared - is for PC 1stP 18% or higher @5.0.