Friday

Francie Barrett

Newcastle 8:15 - I see that Patrick is being nibbled at just a little, with 11/1 still available thanks to Paddy Power.

Sent over to the Curragh to run in the Rockingham against horses rated 100 and over, it runs tomorrow at close to bottom weight of just 65 in a class 5. Don't know if this is a bit of a plot job or what, but on form this is well in. 11/1 best price, betting for it to win straight as I think it scoots in or comes nowhere.

Francie Barrett

Dundalk 7:00 - Along the same theme as Patrick, Diable Dor another who has run off a much higher handicap rating in the past. Ran a cracker when making a debut for its Irish trainer, horse is now down to a rating of just 58, 9lb below the run when it nearly stole the race that time. Surely has a good chance here and 12/1 a nice enough price for me to have a bet.

irishgoat

2.00 Haydock, Epona, currently around 3.8 but I'm looking to lay it. It won @ 6f on heavy so it will definitely love today's going but what really concerns me it's back in distance to 5f on heavy. I think 6f or 7f would be ideal. Hopefully the price comes in as I'd like to lay @ shorter odds.

2.30 Haydock, I don't like the fav in this Praxidice it's around 2.12 and I was considering a decent lay on it, but I really do like Welcoming. Had an excellent run @ Goodwood in a very decent race and I can see it bolting in today, I hope so anyway, currently around 3.1.


Good luck to everyone in their betting today!

irishgoat

2.05 Fakenham, Collodi. I originally had this picked as a potential win bet but the more I watched the replays I'm convinced it needs just a little further. It finished a good second over 2m148yrds, the front 2 were tiring and it was staying on. Today 2m3yrds. I'm thinking and hoping it doesn't win today. I'm laying, currently 2.14

Mostly Harmless

irishgoat wrote: »

2.05 Fakenham, Collodi. I originally had this picked as a potential win bet but the more I watched the replays I'm convinced it needs just a little further. It finished a good second over 2m148yrds, the front 2 were tiring and it was staying on. Today 2m3yrds. I'm thinking and hoping it doesn't win today. I'm laying, currently 2.14

145 yards is hardly a massive difference in trip when race is over 2 miles tbf

irishgoat

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

145 yards is hardly a massive difference in trip when race is over 2 miles tbf

It's over half a furlong. Just my opinion but the horse seems to want 2m1f or 2m2f.

I'm happy enough laying.

How do you think it will pan out ?

Mostly Harmless

irishgoat wrote: »

It's over half a furlong. Just my opinion but the horse seems to want 2m1f or 2m2f.

I'm happy enough laying.

How do you think it will pan out ?

Haven't watched a jump race since Desert Orchid retired :pac:

irishgoat

Who's Desert Orchid ?

kiers47

I love Dundalk. I had a look at the card last night and i fancy about 17 horses in only 8 races. hahaha

Mostly Harmless

kiers47 wrote: »

I love Dundalk. I had a look at the card last night and i fancy about 17 horses in only 8 races. hahaha

Hit The Bid looked a very decent bet I thought. Few I liked in other races but prices have largely evaporated now.

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Hit The Bid looked a very decent bet I thought. Few I liked in other races but prices have largely evaporated now.

Ya i fancy about 6 in that race alone. ha

Ah im messing but it is a decent card. Ya prices gone on one or 2 of the ones i had fancied alright. Had Katiyman overpriced at 9/2 but into 7/2 now. Probably about right.

That sprint. I mean Lost Treasure is by far the most talented horse in that race imo but he is an absolute head the ball. Im not sure how he got beat last week in Navan. I think i read he hit 1.01 but havent looked into it. He also nearly pulled himself up last time in Dundalk to. He needs to be basically dropped on the line. You couldnt have him as a betting proposition though. Equilateral another interesting one.
Actually most of the field in single digit prices are interesting. I was looking at the decs for this on wednesday and seen all the names and thought wouldnt it be great if they all showed up and most of them have in fairness.
Also interesting for Aidan to have All The Kings Men in there. Im sure its happened but i cant remember the last 2 yo he chucked into an all age pattern race.
The problem i have with that race as a betting medium is that im convinced that Lost Treasure wins if he wants and also i still think there is unfinished business with Equilateral. But i wouldnt be doubting anyone taking an opinion on it as there are flaws there. I do like Hit The Bid usually but i was dissapointed with the run in the L'Abbaye and he looked in need of a break to me. But i wouldnt turn anyone off at the price.

Mostly Harmless

kiers47 wrote: »

Ya i fancy about 6 in that race alone. ha

Ah im messing but it is a decent card. Ya prices gone on one or 2 of the ones i had fancied alright. Had Katiyman overpriced at 9/2 but into 7/2 now. Probably about right.

That sprint. I mean Lost Treasure is by far the most talented horse in that race imo but he is an absolute head the ball. Im not sure how he got beat last week in Navan. I think i read he hit 1.01 but havent looked into it. He also nearly pulled himself up last time in Dundalk to. He needs to be basically dropped on the line. You couldnt have him as a betting proposition though. Equilateral another interesting one.
Actually most of the field in single digit prices are interesting. I was looking at the decs for this on wednesday and seen all the names and thought wouldnt it be great if they all showed up and most of them have in fairness.
Also interesting for Aidan to have All The Kings Men in there. Im sure its happened but i cant remember the last 2 yo he chucked into an all age pattern race.
The problem i have with that race as a betting medium is that im convinced that Lost Treasure wins if he wants and also i still think there is unfinished business with Equilateral. But i wouldnt be doubting anyone taking an opinion on it as there are flaws there. I do like Hit The Bid usually but i was dissapointed with the run in the L'Abbaye and he looked in need of a break to me. But i wouldnt turn anyone off at the price.

Putting up a few in running lays on Lost Treasure at around 1/2, 1/5 and 1/10 probably the most +EV approach to the race.

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Putting up a few in running lays on Lost Treasure at around 1/2, 1/5 and 1/10 probably the most +EV approach to the race.

Probably not a bad call. You could probably stick in 1/50 as well. haha

What he needs is FRANK!! An equal amount of head the ball. But in human form.

irishgoat

Dundalk looks a really competitive card and hard betting wise. I had a look at 1 or 2 races and just closed the form book. I agree that lost treasure could go close. I don't like equialateral or hit the bid but still a few in there that's well capable. Tough card.

kiers47

Actually one who I completely can't fathom the price of is Schoolboy Error in the last. PP put him in at 10/1 last night. I'm not sure how or who priced him at that price. It jumped off the page so I had a look at the race in more detail and I priced him at 5/1.
I just bet him there a few mins ago at 7/1 and think that's still fair. Its obviously a big jump in grade for him but his course form is great and he is in good form.

irishgoat

Bit of a redner there with that Colodi!

This 2.15 @ redcar, I've layed the hell out of the fav absolute dream @ 3.2 and a bit. Good money for it. But I had it @ a much much bigger price this morning!

Mostly Harmless

irishgoat wrote: »

Bit of a redner there with that Colodi!

This 2.15 @ redcar, I've layed the hell out of the fav absolute dream @ 3.2 and a bit. Good money for it. But I had it @ a much much bigger price this morning!

Dunno how you can keep the head straight laying like this, my head is nearly gone if I get a 2/1 poke beat, few odds on defeats in a row and I'd be on full tilt

irishgoat

Yeah it can hurt if a couple of lays win. That was a gamble but I don't really even go by gambles. Usually if I price a horse way higher and it's shorter I'll lay it if I feel it'll get beat. Does sting a bit if it's goes south.

sorry for posting this late I'm just a bit busy here. 3.10 Fakenham, layed rockeys treasuer @ 2.06

irishgoat

Tomorrows racing @ ascot still suspended on betfair...

Mostly Harmless

irishgoat wrote: »

Yeah it can hurt if a couple of lays win. That was a gamble but I don't really even go by gambles. Usually if I price a horse way higher and it's shorter I'll lay it if I feel it'll get beat. Does sting a bit if it's goes south.

sorry for posting this late I'm just a bit busy here. 3.10 Fakenham, layed rockeys treasuer @ 2.06

Vaguely remember you saying you always want to see the way a horse goes in the betting and only then you decide whether you should back or lay it... Anyway not here to nitpick.


My point was if I was making last minute decisions whether I was going to lay something for the lot, it would soon become very hard to see the wood for the trees and I am sure I would start making some really, really awful decisions.


I much prefer making a case for a horse at a price and then betting to my opinion, it is so much easier to square the losses in your head when it goes to crap. Getting the mental side of the game right is the hardest part IMO.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

Tomorrows racing @ ascot still suspended on betfair...

Racing in Ascot has been live since early after declarations yesterday. Ive been looking at it all last night and some of today.

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

Racing in Ascot has been live since early after declarations yesterday. Ive been looking at it all last night and some of today.

Are you serious? It's suspended for me. I've 2 bets placed already since 2 days ago and was wondering why it was suspended. I'll have to live chat them.

Had to take a break for awhile to try get my mind back in shape. I'll have one more bet and if no joy I'll leave it for the day.

4.30 Wincanton, Beau Sancy, currently around 1.83'ish. I have to lay it. Won well last time out but I'm really wondering if that new stable just had it 100% on that particular day and landed the few bob. Before that I wasn't impressed with it at all. I've tried to find a strong reason to back it and I can't.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

Are you serious? It's suspended for me. I've 2 bets placed already since 2 days ago and was wondering why it was suspended. I'll have to live chat them.

Had to take a break for awhile to try get my mind back in shape. I'll have one more bet and if no joy I'll leave it for the day.

4.30 Wincanton, Beau Sancy, currently around 1.83'ish. I have to lay it. Won well last time out but I'm really wondering if that new stable just had it 100% on that particular day and landed the few bob. Before that I wasn't impressed with it at all. I've tried to find a strong reason to back it and I can't.

Are you still looking at the antepost section or something? They always push the racing from the antepost section after final decs.
It is in the normal place they always are in. You just need to change the date to Saturday.

akelly02

kiers47 wrote: »

Actually one who I completely can't fathom the price of is Schoolboy Error in the last. PP put him in at 10/1 last night. I'm not sure how or who priced him at that price. It jumped off the page so I had a look at the race in more detail and I priced him at 5/1.
I just bet him there a few mins ago at 7/1 and think that's still fair. Its obviously a big jump in grade for him but his course form is great and he is in good form.

word from yard for this one...i cant get on till after work,,,watching the price crumble as the hours go by is not easy

mirwillbeback

Just met my mate in PP who tells me he has a share in Jarrocho and it’s trying in the 6.00 at Dundalk.
Not exactly a certainty but imo the majority of nags aren’t trying in a Friday in Dundalk so that’s half the battle!

mirwillbeback

mirwillbeback wrote: »

Just met my mate in PP who tells me he has a share in Jarrocho and it’s trying in the 6.00 at Dundalk.
Not exactly a certainty but imo the majority of nags aren’t trying in a Friday in Dundalk so that’s half the battle!

Obviously needs to try harder

longshotvalue

8:00 Dundalk

I can't resist a 100/1 shot and Fantasy might stand a tiny chance of getting to the front here . She was poor last time but ran into a gale and weakened .

1 point ew 100/1 365/sky

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

Are you still looking at the antepost section or something? They always push the racing from the antepost section after final decs.
It is in the normal place they always are in. You just need to change the date to Saturday.

Your right, I was on the ante post section ffs x(

Today hasn't been a great day for me, couple winners and losers. The night will either be a total disaster or Ok in the end. Just had a max lay in the 7.15 on harry george @ 2.66. I'm not going to even write my if's and buts... I just want it beaten.

kiers47

akelly02 wrote: »

word from yard for this one...i cant get on till after work,,,watching the price crumble as the hours go by is not easy

He is probably approaching the price he should be now. I'd say if you haven't already gotten on then I wouldn't be getting to carried away.

Luap

Casterbridge in the last at Newcastle - same combo won C&D off 1lb lower.

Most of the value gone at this stage but surely worth a punt at 9/1