Monday 15th October

irishgoat

I'll be having a few bets today, the first is Gowran 1.55 Ill Paradiso, backed it at 1.73/1.72. Currently around 1.65'ish. I'd say it will drift when the initial influx of money ceases. I'm hoping it does as I really can't see anything to beat it and I'd like a have a few more bob on it. By Galileo, who won @ a mile, then 10f and 12f. Second to a pretty decent horse @ Newmarket. Finding it hard to see anything that can come close to it.

3.50 Musselburgh, Tarboosh, currently laying 2.02/2.04


Looks pretty horrible racing today, hoping to make a few quid, good luck to all.

kiers47

That Maiden in Gowran is a cracker for a Monday at Gowran. Some very nice looking types for Aidan in there.
The Peeping Fawn colt by Australia caught the eye in particular. Also a full brother to Alice Springs in there. Also The Rosdhu Queen colt out of Galileo.
The favorite also looks a very nice type in fairness. Added to that Bolger's horse looks like he should be capable of winning a maiden.

Your a brave man taking a short price in this race goat. Best of luck with it

Thought there was a couple of interesting handicaps on the Gowran card all be it i couldnt really find much of a bet. I thought Josephs horse should be clear favorite in the 2 y/o nursery but it is far from a confident selection. There is plenty of 4/1 on him (Ozone). I thought that was fair.

irishgoat

kiers47 wrote: »

That Maiden in Gowran is a cracker for a Monday at Gowran. Some very nice looking types for Aidan in there.
The Peeping Fawn colt by Australia caught the eye in particular. Also a full brother to Alice Springs in there. Also The Rosdhu Queen colt out of Galileo.
The favorite also looks a very nice type in fairness. Added to that Bolger's horse looks like he should be capable of winning a maiden.

Your a brave man taking a short price in this race goat. Best of luck with it

Thought there was a couple of interesting handicaps on the Gowran card all be it i couldnt really find much of a bet. I thought Josephs horse should be clear favorite in the 2 y/o nursery but it is far from a confident selection. There is plenty of 4/1 on him (Ozone). I thought that was fair.

I've went through that 1.55 race over and over again just looking for something I think can put it up to the fav and I just cant' find it. The market seems to be stabilizing now so I've fingers crossed it might drift a bit.

I had a hard look at Ozone but I'm just not keen on it or the fav in the race either. I contemplated laying Ozone for a place but decided just to leave the race alone. I was thinking with Ozone it'll either win or be know-where but I dunno my head started to spin the more I tried to make head nor tail of the form of that race. There is money for Ozone though.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I've went through that 1.55 race over and over again just looking for something I think can put it up to the fav and I just cant' find it. The market seems to be stabilizing now so I've fingers crossed it might drift a bit.

I suppose it depends what your looking for. Usually you'd think Aiden's would need a run so I suppose the favorite is justified. Be rare enough I'd have a bet in a maiden though(especially one with so many well bred types) so I didn't really try to even look at it bar some of the pedigrees on show.

Mostly Harmless

kiers47 wrote: »

I suppose it depends what your looking for. Usually you'd think Aiden's would need a run so I suppose the favorite is justified. Be rare enough I'd have a bet in a maiden though(especially one with so many well bred types) so I didn't really try to even look at it bar some of the pedigrees on show.

EW bet on the 2nd fav seems the logical play

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

EW bet on the 2nd fav seems the logical play

You would have thought but he doesnt seem to be liked by the market in the slightest. O Brien holds the key it looks. They seem to be taking every price they can get on the favorite.

Mostly Harmless

kiers47 wrote: »

You would have thought but he doesnt seem to be liked by the market in the slightest. O Brien holds the key it looks. They seem to be taking every price they can get on the favorite.

Aye, wasn't 100% serioous and wasn't really referring to a specific horse, just given shape of market 2nd fav ew will be +ev as a general rule. Not my sort of race, too much guess work.

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Aye, wasn't 100% serioous and wasn't really referring to a specific horse, just given shape of market 2nd fav ew will be +ev as a general rule. Not my sort of race, too much guess work.

Yep true. I dont think this is the best type of race for a filthy each way.

Funnily enough usually my only bets in maidens come in the shape of dirty each way bets with a shorty. haha :pac:

kiers47

Well i certainly didnt think Millswyn would be the one to win it.

Joseph is having some run of it.

Mostly Harmless

Ones I liked today FWIW

Stormy Tale (2.55), looked to blow chance at start LTO at Limerick but did well to stay on into 4th nevertheless. Looks to have been sweetened up by a short break on that evidence and no issue with conditions today. Slattery Jnr as good value for 7lbs as any appretice at the moment should be coming home with the proverbial wet sail.

Piper Bomb (4.25), never really got into the race at Dundalk LTO when well backed but previous form on turf very consistent and goes well for Donagh O'Connor, form on soft ground and well overpriced at 12s/14s provided she can get a prominent sit from stall 10.

Arthurian Fame (5.30) has been in tracker since run in McEnery Cup behind Law Girl but he is starting to look like a bit of a monkey now - running on well when its all too late under gentle rides. Nothing approaching the class of Still Standing in opposition today and good chance that the longer trip can bring about some improvement. 5/1 looked perfectly fair and I'd be very confident he can win a handicap of this standard off a mark in mid 80s tbh.

Mostly Harmless

kiers47 wrote: »

Well i certainly didnt think Millswyn would be the one to win it.

Joseph is having some run of it.

He sure is, one of my biggest annoyaces this year was looking at 2/1 Donnacha to be champion jock near start of season and thinking he would not get enough outside rides, over 100 winners later he has yet to ride for anyone other than father or brother :rolleyes:

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

He sure is, one of my biggest annoyaces this year was looking at 2/1 Donnacha to be champion jock near start of season and thinking he would not get enough outside rides, over 100 winners later he has yet to ride for anyone other than father or brother :rolleyes:

No rides or no winners?
Hard to believe that but probably accurate especially with the amount of runners Joseph tends to have at all levels.
Cant say i even noticed that.

Mostly Harmless

kiers47 wrote: »

No rides or no winners?
Hard to believe that but probably accurate especially with the amount of runners Joseph tends to have at all levels.
Cant say i even noticed that.

Onlly ridden for two trainers all year...


https://www.irishracing.com/jockey?name=D-O%27Brien&prt=13846


Capture.PNG

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Onlly ridden for two trainers all year...


https://www.irishracing.com/jockey?name=D-O%27Brien&prt=13846


Capture.PNG

That's a mad stat considering how good he is. All be it he is a bit handicapped by the weight constraints.

irishgoat

Missed the 1.55 today as I was out, 4/11 sp... sigh!

I had a few quid e.w on that Ozone. I took your point of view on it Kiers.

kiers47

No good didnt get much of a run from him.

irishgoat

I thought I was on the pigs back, I got 4.7 on it, then the money came. Tarboosh has me OK but I just had a feeling this was an iffy days' racing.

irishgoat

7.15 Desert Friend, I like the look of this horse on it's first run. This morning I had this race narrowed down to Desert friend and luck of clover, who seems to be drifting slightly. I didn't include Rambaldi in my equations at all. I'm going to have a reasonable win bet on Desert friend, currently around the 1.82 mark.

ASOT

Great run from Fillies De Fleur had a great run there in second after being slow away, one to warch.

irishgoat

ASOT wrote: »

Great run from Fillies De Fleur had a great run there in second after being slow away, one to warch.

I'll keep an eye on it but I'd say it might be better at 7f rather than a mile. A lot of times when you see a horse that 'stayed on or stayed on strongly' do better over a shorter distance than further. It's also by Gregorian who eventually won at 7f and progressed further. It'll need to get it's act together on breaking though which I'm sure it will in time.

irishgoat

Should be a walk in the park in the next for Jahbath, but I'm not going to touch the race, odds too short.

irishgoat

I'm done for the day, not a bad day but some really tough races today. I was tempted to have something on the win and place on Hanakotba in the next but tomorrow is another day with hopefully some better racing.