Buy Now vs Early 2019

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Hi there,

I recently only started to view some properties and the views and bidding seems a little slow currently.

I'm not in a rush to buy but I'm concerned that once January rolls around, things will get much more competitive and that I may be priced out of the market if there is a big increase in prices.

Would anyone who has been looking since Jan 2018 vs now have any advice if it is much more competitive when the banking exceptions are available in the early part of the year?

Thanks!

The answer to this question always is: if you find a property you like, in an area you like, that you can afford then buy it. Waiting for the market to go up or down is madness, nobody knows what's going to happen.

Happy4all

I think we learned from the crash, that we can't call the future with any certainty. However, my gut feeling is that come Spring we will see an increase in demand.

Bob24

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Hi there,

I recently only started to view some properties and the views and bidding seems a little slow currently.

I'm not in a rush to buy but I'm concerned that once January rolls around, things will get much more competitive and that I may be priced out of the market if there is a big increase in prices.

Would anyone who has been looking since Jan 2018 vs now have any advice if it is much more competitive when the banking exceptions are available in the early part of the year?

Thanks!

I have no prediction about where the market is going next year. But October to mid-December is definitly a time in the yearly cycle which tends to be better from a buyer’s point of view. Mortgage exceptions have ran out and the summer rush is over, so there is less competition.

Now of course it doesn’t mean you should rush if you’re not ready or go for something you’re only half happy with just to buy before year end ...

phunkadelic

There's a slowdown at the moment due to the banks running out of exceptions to the Central bank lending rules. These exceptions are a % of mortgages per year. That resets in January, so I would say there will be a bit of a bounce back up.
But if you can wait later til this time next year I'd say there will be a combination of the annual exceptions running out plus some more obvious fall out from brexit, which will have kicked in more by then.

GingerLily

phunkadelic wrote: »

There's a slowdown at the moment due to the banks running out of exceptions to the Central bank lending rules. These exceptions are a % of mortgages per year. That resets in January, so I would say there will be a bit of a bounce back up.
But if you can wait later til this time next year I'd say there will be a combination of the annual exceptions running out plus some more obvious fall out from brexit, which will have kicked in more by then.

A fall out from brexit may have consequences for people willing to put properties on the market and banks lending less (if it causes a fall in prices).

Companies relocating here due to Brexit could always drive prices up.

Speculation is a high risk strategy

M.Cribben

phunkadelic wrote: »

There's a slowdown at the moment due to the banks running out of exceptions to the Central bank lending rules. These exceptions are a % of mortgages per year. That resets in January, so I would say there will be a bit of a bounce back up.
But if you can wait later til this time next year I'd say there will be a combination of the annual exceptions running out plus some more obvious fall out from brexit, which will have kicked in more by then.

Brexit is actually increasing demand for Irish property, before it's even effective.



From today's Indo:

House sales to UK buyers climb as 'Brexit refugees' outbid Irish-based homebuyers

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/house-sales-to-uk-buyers-climb-as-brexit-refugees-outbid-irishbased-homebuyers-37419711.html

PROPERTY sales to UK-based buyers have increased by 10pc over the past year, putting pressure on the already stretched housing market.

Edgware

For what it is worth their is a slowdown in demand. The numbers attending open viewings are down and a general lack of bidders. Central bank restrictions are working. Following rises over the last few years the point has been reached where the cash buying investors dont see the return for their investment. While rents have risen the tax take rose as well.

phunkadelic

M.Cribben wrote: »

Brexit is actually increasing demand for Irish property, before it's even effective.



From today's Indo:

House sales to UK buyers climb as 'Brexit refugees' outbid Irish-based homebuyers

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/house-sales-to-uk-buyers-climb-as-brexit-refugees-outbid-irishbased-homebuyers-37419711.html

An increase of 10% in interest from UK buyers? Hardly going to have much effect.

M.Cribben

phunkadelic wrote: »

An increase of 10% in interest from UK buyers? Hardly going to have much effect.

It's not just interest, it's a 10% increase in actual sales from UK buyers. And this is before Brexit even takes effect. That figure will likely rise after March 2019. How is that not going to have much effect in a market experiencing shortage of supply? Any extra demand adds pressure to the market.

KyussB

It's the worst time ever to buy, OP - and there are scores of people with conflicted interests (i.e. who have an interest in seeing the value of property and rents go even higher), who will do their best to sell you on the idea of buying now.

It's probably the most expensive purchase you'll ever make - the one which will use up the biggest chunk of your accumulated income, in your whole life - and you'll effectively be chucking away a good few double-digit-percentages worth of accumulated income more, than if you waited e.g. 5+ years for things to settle down.

If you can avoid that, it's highly advisable that you do - unless you're minted.

M.Cribben

KyussB wrote: »

It's the worst time ever to buy, OP - and there are scores of people with conflicted interests (i.e. who have an interest in seeing the value of property and rents go even higher), who will do their best to sell you on the idea of buying now.

It's probably the most expensive purchase you'll ever make - the one which will use up the biggest chunk of your accumulated income, in your whole life - and you'll effectively be chucking away a good few double-digit-percentages worth of accumulated income more, than if you waited e.g. 5+ years for things to settle down.

If you can avoid that, it's highly advisable that you do - unless you're minted.

In a properly functioning rental market, waiting around for 5 years would be an option. Not when rents are hitting new all time highs twice a year. Average in Dublin is €1,875 / month : http://www.thejournal.ie/daft-rental-report-2-3992744-May2018/
multiply that by 12 months by 5 years = €112,500.
That's a hefty chunk of change to spend while you're waiting around hoping the market will crash. What if it doesn't? Not even the "experts" can predict the market with any degree of accuracy.
And it's not like there's a third (better) option. People need somewhere to live and unfortunately the only 2 options are buying or renting.

As the usual mantra on here goes, if you find a suitable property that you can see yourself living in long-term, and can comfortably afford the deposit and monthly repayments then it's the right time to buy.

KyussB

As I said OP, people will do their best to sell the idea to you - even when they don't know the first thing about your personal situation

If you do happen to be renting, don't fall for the trap of thinking that makes buying - both at the worst time ever - reasonable. There are lots of options for ducking out the present market, for the medium/long term - some easy, if your personal circumstances are lucky - some harder, which you'll need to soften yourself up to considering, by calculating whether the monetary cost (and time cost spent earning that money), are worth it.

All a lot easier if you're minted of course, though

wersal gummage

Edgware wrote: »

For what it is worth their is a slowdown in demand. The numbers attending open viewings are down and a general lack of bidders. Central bank restrictions are working. Following rises over the last few years the point has been reached where the cash buying investors dont see the return for their investment. While rents have risen the tax take rose as well.

Not my experience over the last few weeks and months.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

wersal gummage wrote: »

Not my experience over the last few weeks and months.

Where you looking?

wersal gummage

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Where you looking?

We were outbid by a cash buyer at over a million in Rathmines, outbid by cash at over 900k in Rathfarnham. Those 2 stand out for me, but there were others as well. The mind boggles (for me anyway) that people have that kind of cash, maybe major inheritance, or downsizing, or who knows....

zl1whqvjs75cdy

wersal gummage wrote: »

We were outbid by a cash buyer at over a million in Rathmines, outbid by cash at over 900k in Rathfarnham. Those 2 stand out for me, but there were others as well. The mind boggles (for me anyway) that people have that kind of cash, maybe major inheritance, or downsizing, or who knows....

Interesting to see the demand at that level is still pretty intense

tomfoolery60

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Hi there,

I recently only started to view some properties and the views and bidding seems a little slow currently.

I'm not in a rush to buy but I'm concerned that once January rolls around, things will get much more competitive and that I may be priced out of the market if there is a big increase in prices.

Would anyone who has been looking since Jan 2018 vs now have any advice if it is much more competitive when the banking exceptions are available in the early part of the year?

Thanks!

Hopefully banks will be better at spreading their exemptions throughout the year this time and there won't be as big a bump in the first half of the year. Although perhaps the commission structure for staff will cut against that...