Long haul flights, when is the cheapest time to buy?

troyzer

Apologies, I moved this from the sticky because it wasn't getting any replies.

When is the cheapest window to buy long haul flights?

I'm going to the rugby world cup next year in Japan, looking at Tokyo from the 24th October-7th November 2019. I have semi final tickets for the 26th October but other than that my dates are flexible.

I'm getting close to being able to book flights but the prices are insane. Cathy Pacific for example in September 2019 are looking for €935 minimum return.

But if I wanted to go in March for example, I can get it for as little as €650. I've seen Turkish Airlines before go for €520.

What's the craic? Is it just the seasons? What's the sweetspot for pricing? I presume that they're initially expensive, drop off and then ramp up again?

Brian CivilEng

Check out an app called Hopper. It tracks historical price changes for long haul flights, and advises you whether you should book or wait.

troyzer

abitofacomedian wrote: »

Check out an app called Hopper. It tracks historical price changes for long haul flights, and advises you whether you should book or wait.

Never heard of it, thanks for that.

wally79

troyzer wrote: »

Apologies, I moved this from the sticky because it wasn't getting any replies.

When is the cheapest window to buy long haul flights?

I'm going to the rugby world cup next year in Japan, looking at Tokyo from the 24th October-7th November 2019. I have semi final tickets for the 26th October but other than that my dates are flexible.

I'm getting close to being able to book flights but the prices are insane. Cathy Pacific for example in September 2019 are looking for €935 minimum return.

But if I wanted to go in March for example, I can get it for as little as €650. I've seen Turkish Airlines before go for €520.

What's the craic? Is it just the seasons? What's the sweetspot for pricing? I presume that they're initially expensive, drop off and then ramp up again?

Hmm Well there’s no rugby World Cup in March so that might be one reason.

troyzer

wally79 wrote: »

Hmm Well there’s no rugby World Cup in March so that might be one reason.

There's no rugby world cup in August either, but the prices were still high when initially released.

In any case, the rugby world cup isn' going to have much of an effect on ticket prices. It's the largest city in the world and there are loads of scheduled flights a day, the rugby world cup is a drop in the ocean. Most people in Tokyo won't even know it's going on.

john boye

troyzer wrote: »

There's no rugby world cup in August either, but the prices were still high when initially released.

In any case, the rugby world cup isn' going to have much of an effect on ticket prices. It's the largest city in the world and there are loads of scheduled flights a day, the rugby world cup is a drop in the ocean. Most people in Tokyo won't even know it's going on.

Maybe the locals won't know but the airlines sure as hell will.

Noxegon

€935 isn't awful for a round trip to Japan, especially not during a major event.

I rather suspect that Turkish is going to get more expensive once the new Istanbul Airport opens. The old one (Ataturk) is pretty grim.

The Caveman

Look into British Airways Holidays.

you book return flights, plus 1-night hotel ( or all of them) and you only pay a deposit and pay off the rest.

But, most airlines have not released flights for that time, yet, so wait till 350 days from your return date to book.

questionmark?

Why don't you fly to somewhere else intially that's not Japan but which has cheap budget/commuter options to Japan. You can check out another country whilst at it. May be better than one ticket straight to Japan.

IQO

You may be looking into buying tickets way too much in advance. Try to look around April next year again. Airlines can ask high prices now because only people that are "sure" to go around certain dates a year in advance will book now. Then there will be gap where airlines will lower prices to "fill" their planes, followed by "sure" bookings again for mostly business travelers who will book closer to the departure date and have generally more money to spare than people going on their personal travels.

Also, some airlines only release their schedules 1 year or 9 months in advance, which makes tickets for some airlines for the end of October next year not even bookable now. I'd suggest to wait at least a few months before buying tickets.

Lastly, you may also consider flying out from bigger airports elsewhere in Europe that have an easy connection to Ireland (f.e. Amsterdam, Brussels or Frankfurt - or Spain, Italy) where the home country won't play in the rugby world cup. For those countries it would likely be business as usual in terms of tickets sales so demand will not peak, but airlines would need to fill their planes (or connecting planes to other hubs) - so there's a chance those tickets will be priced as normal.

Quick and relatively cheap Ryanair/Aer Lingus during this time of the year to those hubs can then still give you reasonably priced tickets to Japan. Hope this helps!

troyzer

Cheers for all of the replies lads. The hopper app is interesting because it pretty much proves what I thought already. Flights are very expensive really far out and for major events (like Hanami in April which is actually a proper event in Japan unlike the world cup) so it seems like the best time might be to wait until the new year like a few of you suggested.

I can't fly direct to Japan anyway so I was always going to stop over. I didn't really think to look at how it might work if I book the connections seperately, I would have thought that was more expensive.

Tenger

troyzer wrote: »

.................................
I can't fly direct to Japan anyway so I was always going to stop over. I didn't really think to look at how it might work if I book the connections seperately, I would have thought that was more expensive.

Rule of thumb is that multi sector tickets are cheaper per mile than point to point. Another advantage is the security of checked through bags and backup in case of delays/diversions.
2 separate tickets mean checking in again at mid point and if 1st flight is badly delayed then possibility of missing 2nd flight.

troyzer

Tenger wrote: »

Rule of thumb is that multi sector tickets are cheaper per mile than point to point. Another advantage is the security of checked through bags and backup in case of delays/diversions.
2 separate tickets mean checking in again at mid point and if 1st flight is badly delayed then possibility of missing 2nd flight.

I wouldn't mind a night in Hong Kong or Dubai anyway so it suits.

Kev11491

When I flew to Tokyo two years back I went in November and booked the flights the September before, 545euro with Air China from what I remember (I did have to get to LHR though). If you can wait I would, always seems to be sales in September or if you can fly into somewhere like Osaka if there is a decent price and get the train up to Tokyo if that's where you want to base yourself.

troyzer

Kev11491 wrote: »

When I flew to Tokyo two years back I went in November and booked the flights the September before, 545euro with Air China from what I remember (I did have to get to LHR though). If you can wait I would, always seems to be sales in September or if you can fly into somewhere like Osaka if there is a decent price and get the train up to Tokyo if that's where you want to base yourself.

You booked the flight only two months out? I wouldn't risk that.

Kev11491

troyzer wrote: »

You booked the flight only two months out? I wouldn't risk that.

Yeah, granted I didn't initially plan it, just seemed like a good price. Point is sometimes its better waiting closer to the date

Blut2

IQO wrote: »

You may be looking into buying tickets way too much in advance. Try to look around April next year again. Airlines can ask high prices now because only people that are "sure" to go around certain dates a year in advance will book now. Then there will be gap where airlines will lower prices to "fill" their planes, followed by "sure" bookings again for mostly business travelers who will book closer to the departure date and have generally more money to spare than people going on their personal travels.

This is my experience of long haul booking too. It can vary massively, but my general rule to avoid both ends of the "sure" booking spectrum is by instead booking anywhere from the 6 month to 6 week in advance mark. Both longer, and especially shorter, in advance than this and the price usually goes up.

troyzer

Blut2 wrote: »

This is my experience of long haul booking too. It can vary massively, but my general rule to avoid both ends of the "sure" booking spectrum is by instead booking anywhere from the 6 month to 6 week in advance mark. Both longer, and especially shorter, in advance than this and the price usually goes up.

I'm thinking April now. But realistically I think what we're going to do is establish a price we're happy to pay and then just wait for it to hit that point, no looking back afterwards.

I'm not willing to wait around for the difference between €600 and €650 but I am willing to do it for €600 vs €950.

HTCOne

troyzer wrote: »

I'm thinking April now. But realistically I think what we're going to do is establish a price we're happy to pay and then just wait for it to hit that point, no looking back afterwards.

I'm not willing to wait around for the difference between €600 and €650 but I am willing to do it for €600 vs €950.

How about Seoul? There’s massive traffic between ICN and NRT/HND every day, basically think LON-DUB, flights will be cheap, it’s nearby and you will mostly avoid the inflated hotel and flight prices. Remember until very recently Tokyo was the most expensive city in the world per square foot (Hong Kong overtook it). Prices for hotels in Tokyo are often eye watering. You could pop over to Japan for a day or 2 and the match then scuttle back to S Korea if your budget is tight.

Best of luck with it anyway.

troyzer

HTCOne wrote: »

troyzer wrote: »

I'm thinking April now. But realistically I think what we're going to do is establish a price we're happy to pay and then just wait for it to hit that point, no looking back afterwards.

I'm not willing to wait around for the difference between €600 and €650 but I am willing to do it for €600 vs €950.

How about Seoul? There’s massive traffic between ICN and NRT/HND every day, basically think LON-DUB, flights will be cheap, it’s nearby and you will mostly avoid the inflated hotel and flight prices. Remember until very recently Tokyo was the most expensive city in the world per square foot (Hong Kong overtook it). Prices for hotels in Tokyo are often eye watering. You could pop over to Japan for a day or 2 and the match then scuttle back to S Korea if your budget is tight.

Best of luck with it anyway.

Not a bad idea but we're not particularly budget conscious. Plenty of time to save up before we go, I'm just looking for the best value on the flights.

After that we'll worry about hotels. We're not planning on staying in Tokyo the whole time.

My girlfriend isn't into rugby at all so I'm selling this as a Japanese holiday with a match in the middle. Which to be honest, is exactly what it is but the rugby happens to be the most important part for me.

So yeah, money isn't really an issue once we're there. We want to have a proper Japanese holiday.

afatbollix

Depends, Had to get to LA by 10am last week. Booked the night before at 11pm from Gatwick which left at 6am. Only cost £430 return.


As folks have said if your booking 12 months out they know you want to go. Whereas the business trip 3 months out might get canceled then they ramp up the price after 6 weeks out. Its all worked out by algorithms of how much to charge per seat.

troyzer

Most airlines are now offering flights as far as the first week of October. Another month and I'll be able to set price alerts for the return dates.

KLM seem to be the cheapest so far at €800 for September 2019 which doesn't involve Skyscanner fcukery of switching airports/airlines/ridiculously long stopovers.

€800 isn't that bad, I think I'll wait until it drops to €700. I'd be happy with that.

L1011

It may never drop to 700, you have to remember that the airlines are clearly aware of the increased demand from non regular passengers and will price to account for it

troyzer

L1011 wrote: »

It may never drop to 700, you have to remember that the airlines are clearly aware of the increased demand from non regular passengers and will price to account for it

I still think people are overestimating how much increased demand this will actually have.

Around 400,000 people are expected to travel to Japan for the world cup. This is compared to 2,900,000 who went to Russia for the soccer world cup.

Not only that, but the vast, vast majority of that 400,000 will be gone before the semi final (which is when I'm going). Tokyo is a city of 40,000,000 with around 100,000,000 international airline passengers a year landing there.

I'm not disputing that some airline will try to rob me but I don't think they're all going to be able to gouge me. There will be a few thousand Irish people at best heading over, most of them will be with the chartered tour operators and of the reminder, most will only be heading over for the group games.

So while I expect to pay a bit more than a normal time, I would be astonished if the likes of KLM slapped on a 50% premium because it's the world cup.

Just to add to that, the flights are already out during the group game window and aren't any higher than historical prices from what I can tell. So I'm still very much basing my purchase date on what historically has been the cheapest window for that time of year.

buzsywuzsy

Just to add my experience; flew with a KLM in July to Tokyo. Booked it last January and paid 715 each. We had been keeping an eye on Skyscanner for a couple of months before.

troyzer

buzsywuzsy wrote: »

Just to add my experience; flew with a KLM in July to Tokyo. Booked it last January and paid 715 each. We had been keeping an eye on Skyscanner for a couple of months before.

Hmm, I'd probably take that.

I think it's just because I've seen them going so cheap via Istanbul. As low as €550.

Kev11491

troyzer wrote: »

Hmm, I'd probably take that.

I think it's just because I've seen them going so cheap via Istanbul. As low as €550.

Thing to watch out for with Istanbul is that next year Turkish will be in the process of moving airports, so you wont be changing in ataturk even though when booking it now it states that you will, I imagine flight times/layovers will likely stay the same.

Chris871

I've flown to Tokyo 4 times in the last 2 years, with Klm, JAL & BA. The best i've ever done is €550, worst is €660. Usually booking 6-8 weeks out.

I'm going over for the end of the group stages and Qf and i'd bite your hand off to only pay €750/800 now for them.

LiamaDelta

Chris871 wrote: »

I've flown to Tokyo 4 times in the last 2 years, with Klm, JAL & BA. The best i've ever done is €550, worst is €660. Usually booking 6-8 weeks out.

I'm going over for the end of the group stages and Qf and i'd bite your hand off to only pay €750/800 now for them.

Same here. Particularly as tour operators will have pre-booked/block booked many seats ex Dublin. There will be a big contingent flying from London and Paris so that will also create demand within the flights that would be the main transfer airports for us.

troyzer

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Same here. Particularly as tour operators will have pre-booked/block booked many seats ex Dublin. There will be a big contingent flying from London and Paris so that will also create demand within the flights that would be the main transfer airports for us.

Yeah, think I'll settle for €750 as well. It was more the €1,000 flights that were giving me a heart attack.

Chris871

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Same here. Particularly as tour operators will have pre-booked/block booked many seats ex Dublin. There will be a big contingent flying from London and Paris so that will also create demand within the flights that would be the main transfer airports for us.

Plenty of route choices. Most direct being through, Helsinki, Amsterdam, Lhr, Paris, Frankfurt. But there’s always the longer routes through Middle East/Hong Kong etc if a stop over is appealing