Saturday 22nd September

Morleystreet

For an interest, EW treble for me tomorrow on

Growl 3:50 (9/1) ....... Knocking on door all season.
Take Cover 3:30 (8/1) ...... Admirable old timer whose recent Chester performance shows still has what it takes. Last years winner.
Golden Spear 3:55 (4/1) ..... The man from del monte says ???

Morleystreet

Was typing this up as bumper was creating similar thread. Sur maybe mod can delete this or merge - whatever suits.

irishgoat

2.20 Newbury, Mirage Dancer. I'll be backing this. Should be a decent enough price and will probably drift when the money keeps coming for young rascal. If young rascal was really a 112 rated horse with the weight difference I'd be backing it, but I don't think it's a 112 at all. I hope the money keeps coming for it and pushes Mirage dancer out. Regards of the drift if it happens I'll be backing it.

2.55 Newbury, True Mason. I've layed this already. I'm sure when the market is more liquid the price will come in but I'll still be laying it. It is a pretty decent horse. The handicapper raised it from 86 to 106, that is some rise and it was because of it's good 3rd in France. However there is some really useful horses in this and I don't expect it to win mostly because I don't think it's anywhere near 106. Currently laying 4.1/4.2

I have a few more lined up for tomorrow but I want to see how the market fares tomorrow.

Good luck


Edit: The money is really pouring in for that young rascal as of now it's 13/8 Mirage Dancer and 3-1/11-4 Young rascal. I wouldn't be surprised if they go off nearly joint favs. Young Rascal's run in the derby is a big reason of this gamble. Mirage Dancer should be too good for it.

BumperD

Curious anyone know the price wise selections tomorrow just trying to see what horse prices it’s moving

abarkie

BumperD wrote: »

Curious anyone know the price wise selections tomorrow just trying to see what horse prices it’s moving

Cold Stare & Bengali boys 240 Ayr

True Mason 255 Newbury

Muntadab 350 ayr

abarkie

Beringer 145 Ayr also

Francie Barrett

Ayr 2:40 - Maarek will love the heavy going and is a cracking bet at 28/1 ew with 5 places thanks to Paddy Power.

Goldcupfav

Think Amber Spark in the 1.25 at Ayr is a solid ew bet. Last two nursery runs were in decent company off 78 at newmarket and Newcastle. Runs off 79 today form of the Newmarket race working out well and the winner at Newcastle went in again during the week. Soft ground could bring improvement and at 10s looks a decent bet

longshotvalue

2:20 Newbury
This looks a poor enough race with loads of horses that can’t be trusted. I’m always of the opinion that decent stayers, can run well at shorter trips and I think Desert Skyline could cause a surprise here. He has a couple of top quality runs this year and in this field I don’t think he is a 20/1 shot.
1 Point win 20/1 365/paddy/betfair
2:55 Newbury
The Irish Rover will be suited by this trip and the small field and the fact that he’s probably the best horse in this field. 6/1 is just too big.
2 Points win 6/1 365/lads
2:40 Ayr
Hayadh looked to love the Heavy ground when leading in the Lincoln before running out of steam and has since been dropping in mark. I think he will love this soft 6 furlongs and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he gets to the front and stays there (given he stays further). 25/1 looks value
1 Point win 25/1
3:50 Ayr
I’ve this narrowed down to 2 that I like. Growl handles these conditions better than most and he just can’t be far away. G-Force will love the ground and looks to have been setup for a big run here.
1 Point win 9/1 Growl
1 Point win 25/1 G-Force
3:55 Newmarket
I’ve been on the Clever Cookie bandwagon a couple of times this year, and in fairness he has run up to his mark of 105-6 a few times. Of 98 here I think he will be involved in the finish here. 20/1 is at least 6 points too big.
1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Auroras_encore

3.10 Drombeg Dream 10/1
3.45 Lomis Law 20/1
4.20 Dharma Rain 4/1
4.50 Nanabad 9/1

Boring enough but I think Fozzy Stacks is a good thing in the ayr old cup

STB.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Ayr 2:40 - Maarek will love the heavy going and is a cracking bet at 28/1 ew with 5 places thanks to Paddy Power.

One of my old favs on soft ground.

Infact there are Two 11 year olds out today that could be given a chance on ground and handicap rating.

An each way double Maarek (28/1) in the 2.40 Ayr and Dinkum Diamond (14/1) in the 4.50 at Gowran.

antietam

What the Ayr Gold Cup reaffirmed to me that money is being thrown away by the shocking HRI at pattern races.206.5K for a group 1 which in theory could be won by a handicapper like Son Of Rest is shocking.We here in Ireland are used to non-competitive races for very inflated purses[to billionaires] while 60% of small syndicates have left the sport due to costs and serious lack of monies for the small owners.An example,I own a share in an average ability horse which by the trainer's admission we had to go to England to win a race.The horse won and the prize money take by 5 owners after all deductions was 200e each.I also own a bumper horse that has been injured for a year hopefully he runs at Christmas but he now stands me alone at 18k without purchase price.I'm very sure that plenty of posters here have been considering syndicates but IMO look elsewhere as the HRI do not want you.The latest news ive been told is that the HRI want to rival the Breeders cup for prize money with their Champions Weekend meeting[please remember the sponsor pays 33.33% of the total fund the Irish taxpayer funds the rest.

STB.

antietam wrote: »

What the Ayr Gold Cup reaffirmed to me that money is being thrown away by the shocking HRI at pattern races.206.5K for a group 1 which in theory could be won by a handicapper like Son Of Rest is shocking..

Son of Rest is a handicapper ?

He won possibly 95 grand today given the money is halved for the dead heat (plus the second money)

2nd in the Derrinstown Flying Five, this year flying at the finish. He picked up 70k for that.

Beaten 3 lengths by Carvaggio this time last year in the Derrinstown. He picked up 30k for that.

I don't get your point. The Derrinstown Flying Five was upgraded from a Group 2 to Group 1 this year.

Not many 4 year old handicappers with close on 500 grand in prize money.

Francie Barrett

antietam wrote: »

What the Ayr Gold Cup reaffirmed to me that money is being thrown away by the shocking HRI at pattern races.206.5K for a group 1 which in theory could be won by a handicapper like Son Of Rest is shocking.We here in Ireland are used to non-competitive races for very inflated purses[to billionaires] while 60% of small syndicates have left the sport due to costs and serious lack of monies for the small owners.An example,I own a share in an average ability horse which by the trainer's admission we had to go to England to win a race.The horse won and the prize money take by 5 owners after all deductions was 200e each.I also own a bumper horse that has been injured for a year hopefully he runs at Christmas but he now stands me alone at 18k without purchase price.I'm very sure that plenty of posters here have been considering syndicates but IMO look elsewhere as the HRI do not want you.The latest news ive been told is that the HRI want to rival the Breeders cup for prize money with their Champions Weekend meeting[please remember the sponsor pays 33.33% of the total fund the Irish taxpayer funds the rest.

The big problem in Irish racing is that there are simply too many poor horses chasing too few races. Look at the 3:10 at Navan tomorrow for a perfect example of that. Lowest grade of handicap hurdle with the minimum NH prize money, but yet it has 30 declarations and 3 reserves. I am not sure such a race is worth more than the prize money on offer, but at the same time, it's clear that more chances need to be given to horses competing at this grade.

antietam

STB. wrote: »

Son of Rest is a handicapper ?

He won possibly 95 grand today given the money is halved for the dead heat (plus the second money)

2nd in the Derrinstown Flying Five, this year flying at the finish. He picked up 70k for that.

Beaten 3 lengths by Carvaggio this time last year in the Derrinstown. He picked up 30k for that.

I don't get your point. The Derrinstown Flying Five was upgraded from a Group 2 to Group 1 this year.

Not many 4 year old handicappers with close on 500 grand in prize money.

The top knowledgeable posters this site knew I was fishing for the intellectuals. Explain the 60% reduction of syndicates,the HRI/RUK deal with your knowledge that you have not mentioned.By the way, in my opinion, HRI operate like Capone did in Chicago without Bugs Moran.

BumperD

It’s a hard one they are biased cash wise towards the graded races but not sure promoting mediocrity over quality is the way forward. Syndicates disappeared during the Great Depression in Ireland , not sure they will ever recover. I don’t have the solution

STB.

antietam wrote: »

The top knowledgeable posters this site knew I was fishing for the intellectuals.

Is that some feeble attempt at a put down Stephen ?

Less of the arrogance please.

antietam wrote: »

Explain the 60% reduction of syndicates,the HRI/RUK deal with your knowledge that you have not mentioned.By the way, in my opinion, HRI operate like Capone did in Chicago without Bugs Moran.

I don't need to explain anything to you bar there are limited races for quality sprinters.

I'm not getting into a debate about where the prize money would be better spent. I don't work for the HRI.

All sports have suffered since the downturn in the economy (GAA included). Some still have not recovered. Syndicates are Celtic Tiger stuff.

Now get back to the point where you were saying that Son of Rest is just a handicapper.

elderberry

The difference between horses competing in the top handicaps and Group races at sprint distances is often minimal. Only this season we saw Dreamfield sent off at 6/1 for a July Cup on the back of a Wokingham second.

The field for the Flying Five this year was below par for a Group One. Three weeks after Nunthorpe & then three weeks to Abbaye, goes to show there isn't that many top class 5f horses to take in these races. Pity Blue Point or Harry Angel didn't take it in.