Tuesday 18th September

irishgoat

Hi all busy days racing today and looks like there is money to be made!

This is my last time posting my selections here on boards. If anyone knows of any decent betting forums please do pm me.

I've had bits and pieces of cash on today but I'll keep back these as the day goes on and closer to the off time.

1.30 Lingfield. Capla Gilda, currently laying and will continue to do so.

1.50 Yarmouth. Massam, currently backing this and will keep going on it, should win easy.

2.0 Lingfield. Vivionn, currently laying. I think Annecy might do it but I'm not confident enough so just going with the lay.

2.10 Redcar. Harpelle. Another I feel pretty strong about. Currently backing and will keep going on it.

2.20 Yarmouth. Laying Magic J. I was tempted to go for the win on Swindler but again just not confident enough so going with the lay on Magic J.

3.00 Lingfield. Wilbury Twist, been laying this @ 1.67/1.6. Really unexposed field and I have the feeling this horse is way way under priced.


Apart from todays racing. I've layed Enble for the Arc. Great horse but I think you'd want to be off your head to be backing it at that price and I have a strong feeling it will be beaten.

Not racing related but I've spent a few hours going though stats and trends and god knows what and I've had a fairly heavy lay on Liverpool tonight.

I hope it's a profitable day for you all.

All the best

kiers47

Fairly interesting son of Scat Daddy winning there in the last in Yarmouth, Magic J. Looks a nice type and won with plenty in hand after being quite green in the middle part of the race. Still a big baby though.

xlogo

irishgoat wrote:

This is my last time posting my selections here on boards.

Why??

abarkie

Look at yesterday's thread and comments made.

Mostly Harmless

xlogo wrote: »

Why??

Restarting posting as sting starting from tomorrow?

I says

Ronan whelan made a balls of that ride on beckwith place cost a couple of places at least not saying he would have won but got into all sorts of trouble turning for home.

Itziger

irishgoat wrote: »

Hi all busy days racing today and looks like there is money to be made!

This is my last time posting my selections here on boards. If anyone knows of any decent betting forums please do pm me.

I've had bits and pieces of cash on today but I'll keep back these as the day goes on and closer to the off time.

1.30 Lingfield. Capla Gilda, currently laying and will continue to do so.

1.50 Yarmouth. Massam, currently backing this and will keep going on it, should win easy.

2.0 Lingfield. Vivionn, currently laying. I think Annecy might do it but I'm not confident enough so just going with the lay.

2.10 Redcar. Harpelle. Another I feel pretty strong about. Currently backing and will keep going on it.

2.20 Yarmouth. Laying Magic J. I was tempted to go for the win on Swindler but again just not confident enough so going with the lay on Magic J.

3.00 Lingfield. Wilbury Twist, been laying this @ 1.67/1.6. Really unexposed field and I have the feeling this horse is way way under priced.


Apart from todays racing. I've layed Enble for the Arc. Great horse but I think you'd want to be off your head to be backing it at that price and I have a strong feeling it will be beaten.

Not racing related but I've spent a few hours going though stats and trends and god knows what and I've had a fairly heavy lay on Liverpool tonight.

I hope it's a profitable day for you all.

All the best

Apart from Enable, was this a profitable day? Why do people say, I'm backing X and will keep going in? I don't get that, unless you're extremely confident and the price drifts. Why would you keep going in???

abarkie

Hope he laid out on he exchanges on his lay of Liverpool.

Sadly another contributor gone

irishgoat

Itziger wrote: »

Apart from Enable, was this a profitable day? Why do people say, I'm backing X and will keep going in? I don't get that, unless you're extremely confident and the price drifts. Why would you keep going in???

I actually did have a reasonably good day believe it or not. Out of my bets for yesterday I had 2 losers which were Capla Gilda and Vivionn. I was out and didn't see the race or have a chance to trade off if I wanted to so that's that.

I made a good profit on the other 4.

In the thread from 2 days ago, one of the guys asked why I posted my bets so close to the off. Well now you can see exactly why. If I posted my bets from yesterday close to the off time they would have been totally different.

I don't want to be classed as an aftertimer so from the link here https://imgur.com/a/sfEY70I you can see I altered my bets right at the off time and as I said made a small profit. I went in again on that Wilbury Twist at the off because i still felt it was underpriced.

I got a kick in the ass with the Liverpool result, the late goals are killers.

Lastly, in regards to Enable for the arc. Well I was talking to a friend of mine who works for a bookmakers firm in a different country. I told him I'd layed Enable and he told me to trade off immediately that they've taken big bets on it winning already. I've cashed out on that but will wait closer to the day to see if I back it or not.

Good luck in your betting today!

kiers47

Not saying you are lying or anything but how do you arrive at the complete opposite to what you originally posted?

"2.10 Redcar. Harpelle. Another I feel pretty strong about. Currently backing and will keep going on it.

2.20 Yarmouth. Laying Magic J. I was tempted to go for the win on Swindler but again just not confident enough so going with the lay on Magic J."

The first was heavily backed? Why would you then lay it if you said you were going to keep backing it?
And Magic J was quite uneasy in the market and drifted a nice bit from when you posted. I know this one as it was a horse i was interested to see run.

Seems a bit strange that you would go full circle on both of them considering their relative strength and weakness. Just wondering what your reasoning is?

irishgoat

There is a thing called market manipulation, happening in every single race, if a horse plunges it's usually a red herring. I have 2 bets I've backed today, one lay and one backed. If I'm happy at the off I'll stick with them, if I'm not I'll change.

kiers47

If a horse plunges in the market it's usually a sign that somebody knows something that most don't know or else that the professionals are thinking that the market is significantly underestimating the likelihood of the horse winning.
In which case why would you get out of the bet? I don't really understand that. If back to laying is your thing then that's fine. But I don't get the it doesn't feel right this time so I'm laying off even though everyone else seems to think the price I got was great.

kiers47

Also i want to add. I'm not sure how the post come across to you. Understandably people are skeptical of your methods.
I'm sure you can see how they would be yourself. Nobody is having a go people just want to understand.

This is a forum after all which the objective is usually for discussion or debate. People use it to learn things they don't already know or discuss things that they know a great deal about, be it races or the betting in a race on here. People want to learn and when you are changing what you are telling us or basically doing the opposite i don't think anyone learns anything.

In any case that is all i'm going to say on the topic. If you are going to stay posting in the discussion here then great if not best of luck to you.

irishgoat

I appreciate your view. All I can say is if I put 5 bets up this morning a few would have been changed. The market doesn't frighten me at all if it goes in a certain direction but I need to assess the situation. I backed a horse today at 11/10 and it won at 7/4, it drifted. I backed a horse on sunday that drifted from evens to 11/8 or something like that and won. Look at that magic J yesteeday, drifted and won. Look at that Harpelle yesterday, backed in and lost. Some are genuine plunges and so are red herrings as I say. Some drifts are the same.

Gambling is hard work, I do be shattered at the end of the day with headaces. The bookmakers rightly so make it as hard as they can for punters. Trainers are the same, a horse might be well in on the handicap mark but if the horse is too short they won't let it win, the next time when the price is bigger they will go for the gamble. Punting is hard, very hard.

kiers47

The market is an interesting topic. I'm a great advocater for it. I track all bets i do against betfair sp. I actually place more stock in beating that than anything else tbh.
There are incredibly incredibly educated people playing the exchanges. I back drifters too, everyone does and anyone that tells you otherwise is lying. If they drift its usually as i say above that somebody knows something that you don't know or you have not priced the horse correctly and have taken significantly under the correct odds. People make mistakes as do bookmakers but the key is to make less mistakes than the bookmakers or at least make smaller ones.

I don't think anyone here ever said gambling is easy.

irishgoat

An example of my changing my bets is in the next the 2.40. I backed Good fortune @ 2.5. Now I've layed the hell out of it @ 2.4 due to the market in my opinion. Should be interesting

irishgoat

I've changed my mind right at the off and layed it hard.

irishgoat

There you go. If I'd have put that up earlier as a win bet and I told you I changed my mind later, you would be skeptical. I backed it to win earlier, then I traded off with a loss and then layed it hard for a profit. I need to focus at the end of the market when it's liquid.

Mysterypunter

irishgoat wrote: »

There you go. If I'd have put that up earlier as a win bet and I told you I changed my mind later, you would be skeptical. I backed it to win earlier, then I traded off with a loss and then layed it hard for a profit. I need to focus at the end of the market when it's liquid.

Similar problem with the bet 365 early prices the day before racing, some crazy fluctuations in the market

irishgoat

Mysterypunter wrote: »

Similar problem with the bet 365 early prices the day before racing, some crazy fluctuations in the market

Yes. I said somewhere yesterday that even 500 of 1000 in the morning can drive a market in any direction. You can never trust the market fully but at least when it's liquid in the last few minutes you can get a bet on. I'm always suspicious even when the market is liquid that if a few 10K bets bring it in or out. If you fancy a horse and the market is solid at least you know your in with a chance.

irishgoat

Just regarding that horse good fortune. In my handicap ratings I had it at a rating of 92, it's offical rating is 95. Even if you look back to one of it's races, it finished 3rd, the 4th horse was only rated 91 and it beat that by 2 and a quarter lengths or something like that. It was a class1 but who cares, I knew the 2nd fav today wouldn't have to be star to win it. In my opinion after todays race the winner is 95 rated, that's what I'll make note of. This is all just my opinion and I go with it. That and the market to make sure it's not drifting like hell. When I say drifting like hell, I mean slowly but surely, the big jumps in the market don't bother me.

irishgoat

Another example of will I change my mind is I backed wadilsafa in the 3.15 @ 1.75. As of now I'm happy with it. But in the next minute or 2 I'll make a definite decision.

irishgoat

I've traded off and now layed it as it's drifting too much for me liking.

irishgoat

See what I mean, the market caught me out there. Drifted too much for my liking

zpehtsfd

kiers47 wrote: »

Also i want to add. I'm not sure how the post come across to you. Understandably people are skeptical of your methods.

What methods? All i see is pure madness.

irishgoat

zpehtsfd wrote: »

What methods? All i see is pure madness.

Madness maybe, or maybe not. Out of any amount of races be it 5 or 6 or 10. I can nearly guarantee there will be a higher win percentage and profit made. Can you do that ? I really doubt it.

irishgoat

3.35 chain of daisies layed. Thats all from me. Adios

zpehtsfd

irishgoat wrote: »

Madness maybe, or maybe not. Out of any amount of races be it 5 or 6 or 10. I can nearly guarantee there will be a higher win percentage and profit made. Can you do that ? I really doubt it.

Seriously i have no clue what you are betting on and how much you're wagering. Are you logging these bets somewhere on these threads?

If you're serious about making a name for yourself then why don't you setup your own betting thread and post all your bets AND amounts wagered in real time. At the moment it is impossible to follow what you're doing because your posts are lumped in with other posters. GL

irishgoat

I have no need to make a name for myself. I was recommended here by a person and I assumed it was a busy betting forum. I get bored gambling and sometimes it's nice to see what people are backing and to share my bets and time as it breaks the day

To me it seems there are people here who have their own systems/views and they just cant' see past them. If someone says they can win it's like shock horror it can't be happening.

I have a set amount I'm prepared to gamble and if I lose my daily allowance I'm out. It has happened. I remember back in 2012 or 2013 I can't remember. I practically gave paddy power 4K in cash. I was sick that year and I went into a shop in Dublin city and asked would they take the bet on sprinter sacre, I think it was 2/5 or 1/3. They rang up head office and said ok. Over the next day or 2 the horse was taken out and this was cheltenham week. I forgot to ask was it with a run. Well you can guess the rest. I lost the money. I was sore as it was a few days to Cheltenham and I didn't class it as ante post, they did.

Some people bet once a week/month etc... I have up 16 or more sometimes bets a day depending. Madness ? It's working for me.

I appreciate your advice on logging bets ect... maybe I will sometime down the line I don't know or I'll post in the gambling section. I just don't need too much hassle. I get my bets on between typing here and wouldn't have time for a massive amount of work.

I sincerely wish everyone the best of luck in their gambling. As I said it's very tough work mentally and it's always nice to take some money back from the bookmakers.

kiers47

irishgoat wrote: »

I have a set amount I'm prepared to gamble and if I lose my daily allowance I'm out. It has happened. I remember back in 2012 or 2013 I can't remember. I practically gave paddy power 4K in cash. I was sick that year and I went into a shop in Dublin city and asked would they take the bet on sprinter sacre, I think it was 2/5 or 1/3. They rang up head office and said ok. Over the next day or 2 the horse was taken out and this was cheltenham week. I forgot to ask was it with a run. Well you can guess the rest. I lost the money. I was sore as it was a few days to Cheltenham and I didn't class it as ante post, they did.

The only time Sprinter Sacre did not run at cheltenham was 2014 when he was withdrawn mid February a good 3+ weeks beforehand and not the week of Cheltenham.
He certainly wasnt 2-5 either he was after being pulled up at Kempton that Christmas and was a doubt since then.

irishgoat

It was before 2014 as I was still living in Dublin at the time and I moved in 2013. Maybe it was aintree? The situation happened it's ok if you don't believe me. I remember being sore because as I said I just gave it away for nothing.