Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

XG use in Premier league

  • 13-09-2018 5:36pm
    #1
    jobeenfitz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭


    Does anybody use XG as an aid to predicting goals scored in the premier league?


Comments

  • #2
    fankity flank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 62 ✭✭fankity flank


    Like most models Expected Goals is a little limited, but it does help highlight trends. A recent example would be when Arsenal went on that 22 game unbeaten run, but were getting outscored on the xG charts. Although to be fair you didn't need a fancy model to work out that Arsenal would eventually get found out!

    One thing xG doesn't do is take account of good players playing in good teams. For example a chance from the edge of the box earns a value of 0.2xG. This value is awarded regardless of who is getting into that position to take the chance.

    So if Harry Kane is in position to take the shot it's 0.2xG, which is the same if it's Ngolo Kante taking up the position to shoot. I know who I would rather have in that position! The xG value takes no account of the fact that it's a much better chance for Kane that it is for Kante.

    I find that stats such as touches in the opposition penalty area are a good guide, and when looking at that, you need to consider what players are getting the touches..


Advertisement