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XG use in Premier league

  • 13-09-2018 06:36PM
    #1
    jobeenfitz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,455 ✭✭✭


    Does anybody use XG as an aid to predicting goals scored in the premier league?


Comments

  • #2
    fankity flank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 62 ✭✭fankity flank


    Like most models Expected Goals is a little limited, but it does help highlight trends. A recent example would be when Arsenal went on that 22 game unbeaten run, but were getting outscored on the xG charts. Although to be fair you didn't need a fancy model to work out that Arsenal would eventually get found out!

    One thing xG doesn't do is take account of good players playing in good teams. For example a chance from the edge of the box earns a value of 0.2xG. This value is awarded regardless of who is getting into that position to take the chance.

    So if Harry Kane is in position to take the shot it's 0.2xG, which is the same if it's Ngolo Kante taking up the position to shoot. I know who I would rather have in that position! The xG value takes no account of the fact that it's a much better chance for Kane that it is for Kante.

    I find that stats such as touches in the opposition penalty area are a good guide, and when looking at that, you need to consider what players are getting the touches..


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