RedRebel92 wrote: »
Was reading about the current backwardation in the oil market and was wondering if someone could clear somethings up for me.
So currently there is a supply shortage between OPEC production cuts, US rigs declining and the expected US sanctions against Iran. All these have lead to an increase in oil price.
But given the backwardation in the futures market, this supply shortage is not expected to last (due to I'm assuming the trade war between the US and China and the weakness in emerging markets).
So is the correct outlook for the price of oil that it will go up in the short term but will then decline over time?
ixus wrote: »
Curve doesn't mean anything to mortals. We were talking super contago 2015/16 and $0 oil potentially ( not really). Now we're talking $1/200 ... despite the collapse in car sales in China and rest of world....
Brent/wti is a fools spread. It's not fungible. Only for physical traders.
It could go anywhere with Saudi Arabia. Restricted supply or demand destruction.
Did you know oil prices in EM currencies is back to 2008 levels i.e. $147.
Mach 3 wrote: »
Futures close this week:
- S&P 2763.75
- DXY 97.12
- WTI 50.70
- US 10Y 119. 67